Souhan: Ryan in for the long haul

[gunnarthor]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/289698601.html

 

Interesting article but it also gives a sense of what the FO is thinking - "Whether correct or not, there are two prevailing theories within the Twins organization: That last year’s team underachieved, and that the farm system will set up the team for another decade of winning."  Ryan had told Berardino that he expects Buxton to debut this year.

 

I do love that farm system Ryan's constructed but I'm not sure last year's team underachieved.  Although Mauer and Nolasco certainly did.  Productive years out of those two probably would have added a few wins to the team.  But the farm system is truly elite.  It's generally considered one of the top 2 systems (with the Cubs) and has kept that ranking even though it has graduated 4 top 100 guys the last couple years and still has its best prospects coming.

 

 

[Platoon]

There is a difference between building a good farm system, and knowing when to use it. Also, losing in MLB is inevitable. But if you lose with a plan, and a purpose, at least it's palitable.

[Thrylos]

Farm systems do not win MLB games...

[brvama]

A good background story on Ryan but that's really all it is. Still I enjoyed reading it. The "two prevailing theories" paragraph really looks out of place with the article though. Like a belch at a dinner with your boss. No followup. Let's just throw this in because I need more words. That could be an storyline all by itself. Guess I shouldn't be surprised considering the author.

[Kwak]

Hope I'm wrong, but that article read like a eulogy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could be wrong here.  But for the 2013 season, the Twins won more games than their Pythag record said it should.  For 2014, it was on the other side (or so I thought).  I do think they underachieved a bit.  Bad OF defense was probably the main culprit, as every pitcher had a signficiantly lower FIP than their ERA.  That's probably my biggest beef with the Hunter signing.  The flip side of this is that Hunter KNOWS defense, even if his 39 year old body can no longer play it well.  I'm hoping from that aspect that the knowledge transfer to Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, and Arcia in particular will be very beneficial.  I'm also hoping that Arcia will make major strides defensively.  He's young and athletic enough to do it.  To me, that would make a massive difference for 2015.

 

That said, I do think that this team will probably win around 81 games and if things break right, could stay in it through most of the season (though I'm firm in that they are more pretenders in 2015).   

[jimmer]

Seems Ryan gets way more credit for building this farm system than he actually should, as if out farm system was in total chaos before he returned. Some of the really good prospects we have were obtained while he was gone and many others were just due from losing so much (like Buxton and Stewart). On top of that, he doesn't run the draft.

[ashbury]

On top of that, he doesn't run the draft.

He just hires the guys that do.

[jimmer]

He just hires the guys that do.

Very true.  And Johnson wasn't exactly hitting home runs, draft-wise, until we started being so bad.  In any event, Ryan gets way too much credit for this farm system, being build back up as I said in my previous post.  Lots of hands in the pot including Smith, who gets way too much blame.

[gunnarthor]

Very true.  And Johnson wasn't exactly hitting home runs, draft-wise, until we started being so bad.  In any event, Ryan gets way too much credit for this farm system, being build back up as I said in my previous post.  Lots of hands in the pot including Smith, who gets way too much blame.

This has been discussed a ton here.  Deron Johnson wasn't put in charge until Ryan left - Smith had him replace Radcliff.  Ryan gave Radcliff more say in the drafts when he came back.  Yes, GMs get too much credit/blame, it's part of the job and, frankly, the GM is usually shorthand for FO anyways. 

 

When Ryan came back in 2011, our system was a bit off.  The top guys were Hicks, Gibson (injured), Sano (far away), Arcia (signed under Ryan), Hendricks (signed under Ryan), Benson (drafted under Ryan), Gutierrez, Salcedo (signed under Ryan), Dean and Wimmers.  Even if you don't want to give him credit for the drafts, he added some pretty good players in trades, waiver claims and such.  The farm system went from (at best) middle of the pack to the very top, despite graduating top 100 prospects and other solid additions.  Ryan also made significant changes to the minor leagues.  He changed many of the coaches and put Brad Stiel in charge of minor league development. 

[TheLeviathan]

Under Smith we added these guys:

 

Hicks, Ortiz, Tonkin, Dozier, Gibson, Rosario, Sano, Vargas, and Danny Santana.  To name just the highlights.  

 

Smith made a tremendous number of mistakes and had a bad 2010 draft (so far), but Ryan didn't exactly ride in on his white horse.  He's made some damn fine picks but we wouldn't be this deep and this good (even as we graduate players) if they both didn't deserve a ton of credit.

[Kwak]

Under Smith we added these guys:

 

Hicks, Ortiz, Tonkin, Dozier, Gibson, Rosario, Sano, Vargas, and Danny Santana.  To name just the highlights.  

 

Smith made a tremendous number of mistakes and had a bad 2010 draft (so far), but Ryan didn't exactly ride in on his white horse.  He's made some damn fine picks but we wouldn't be this deep and this good (even as we graduate players) if they both didn't deserve a ton of credit.

So, it's all settled--Gardenhire is to blame for this mess.

[Major League Ready]

I guess in a literal sense a farm system does not win MLB games but it is the most important element to the success or a failure of a MLB team in the bottom half of league in terms of revenue.  This would assume international scouting and signings are part of the farm system operations.  The ONLY probable way a bottom third revenue team is going to contend is by having inexpensive players produce.

[jimmer]

The ONLY probable way a bottom third revenue team is going to contend is by having inexpensive players produce.

How does that pertain to us?

[jokin]

Very true.  And Johnson wasn't exactly hitting home runs, draft-wise, until we started being so bad.  In any event, Ryan gets way too much credit for this farm system, being build back up as I said in my previous post.  Lots of hands in the pot including Smith, who gets way too much blame.

 

Mixing metaphors here... but the last three #1 picks were lay-ups.    

 

Does anyone know? Who was/were the (specific) guy(s) who convinced the braintrust to draft Berrios, and sign Thorpe, Romero, Diaz, Hu, Booser?  These are all guys that took some fortitude to commit to.

[Major League Ready]

Perhaps I should have said bottom half revenue because we would be closer to the middle if revenues rebound.  It does not matter because the point remains the same Unless you don't think it matters there are a number of teams with $100M incremental revenue.  Every year there is a team or two signing TV contracts that are $50-100+ million dollars more than the Twins.

[gunnarthor]

Mixing metaphors here... but the last three #1 picks were lay-ups.    

 

Does anyone know? Who was/were the (specific) guy(s) who convinced the braintrust to draft Berrios, and sign Thorpe, Romero, Diaz, Hu, Booser?  These are all guys that took some fortitude to commit to.

Not sure.  Some of those guys were/are international scouts.  But a guy like Berrios wasn't a big sell.  He was rising up draft boards all spring.  I would imagine that the Twins probably sent a couple cross checkers to view him.  I remember that a Yankees blog was really sure that the Yankees were going to pick him with their first round pick (they took Ty Hensley instead). 

[Thrylos]

Perhaps I should have said bottom half revenue because we would be closer to the middle if revenues rebound.  It does not matter because the point remains the same Unless you don't think it matters there are a number of teams with $100M incremental revenue.  Every year there is a team or two signing TV contracts that are $50-100+ million dollars more than the Twins.

 

 

Interestingly enough, the Twins are 14th in the MLB in total revenue (TV included) with $221M, just behind the Angels, Nationals and  Mets and ahead of Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox (and check out how their neighbors spend) .   As far as operating income goes (earnings before taxes etc) they are 5th in the MLB.  

 

You can check the data here (Forbes; sortable list)  

 

They need no excuses and there are none.

[h2oface]

It often seems..... teams that can't win the MLB games love to talk about the farm. Teams that are busy winning were it counts....... not so much. Then a few, like the Cards, just do both well. I have also found it curious, that so often the talk abut the prospects is that they are not ready, and just need more seasoning, and all of the sudden all the prospects are 27 and 28.

[gunnarthor]

It often seems..... teams that can't win the MLB games love to talk about the farm. Teams that are busy winning were it counts....... not so much. Then a few, like the Cards, just do both well. I have also found it curious, that so often the talk abut the prospects is that they are not ready, and just need more seasoning, and all of the sudden all the prospects are 27 and 28.

Yeah, it's cyclical.  Other than Seth Speaks old website, there wasn't a lot of places that discussed Twins prospects that much when the team was doing well.  Not sure what prospects you're talking about needing more seasoning at 27-28.  Gibson will be 27 next year but he's already been in the majors for 2 years and had a 2 WAR season last year.  The Twins have promoted Sano, Buxton, Stewart, Polanco, Vargas, Santana, Hicks, Arcia, etc multiple levels in recent years (frankly, Steil seems to be more aggressive on this than his predecessor). 

[jokin]

Not sure.  Some of those guys were/are international scouts.  But a guy like Berrios wasn't a big sell.  He was rising up draft boards all spring.  I would imagine that the Twins probably sent a couple cross checkers to view him.  I remember that a Yankees blog was really sure that the Yankees were going to pick him with their first round pick (they took Ty Hensley instead). 

 

Berrios might have been rising on the boards, but I specifically remember multiple doubting commentaries from national baseball writers on whether he had the size and makeup to be a big league starter, and that it was s fairly risky choice for a supplemental 1st round pick.

[jokin]

Hope I'm wrong, but that article read like a eulogy.

 

Funny you should say that...

 

 

Blue Jays end negotiations for Orioles’ Duquette                            

 

TORONTO — Negotiations for Dan Duquette are over after the Toronto Blue Jays refused to consider the Baltimore Orioles’ demands for promising right-hander Jeff Hoffman and two other top prospects as compensation for the executive.

A deal between the American League East rivals was at no point close, and it appears a saga that’s lingered since word first leaked on the eve of the winter meetings in December is at last over.

The Blue Jays had been seeking to hire Duquette as their next president and CEO to succeed Paul Beeston, whose contract expired at the end of October.

 

The Jays have struck out now on both Kenny Williams and Dan Duquette.  Is there a chance they might circle around back and take another shot at Terry Ryan?

[jimmer]

Interestingly enough, the Twins are 14th in the MLB in total revenue (TV included) with $221M, just behind the Angels, Nationals and  Mets and ahead of Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox (and check out how their neighbors spend) .   As far as operating income goes (earnings before taxes etc) they are 5th in the MLB.  

 

You can check the data here (Forbes; sortable list)  

 

They need no excuses and there are none.

I was going to post the same thing.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Interestingly enough, the Twins are 14th in the MLB in total revenue (TV included) with $221M, just behind the Angels, Nationals and  Mets and ahead of Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox (and check out how their neighbors spend) .   As far as operating income goes (earnings before taxes etc) they are 5th in the MLB.  

 

You can check the data here (Forbes; sortable list)  

 

They need no excuses and there are none.

i wish I could like this again

[JB_Iowa]

Funny you should say that...

 

 

The Jays have struck out now on both Kenny Williams and Dan Duquette.  Is there a chance they might circle around back and take another shot at Terry Ryan?

 

Why would Ryan want it?

 

 

He'd have to move. Unless the Jays went back to strictly a GM, it would involve a lot of aspects of St, Peter's job and I don't think Ryan would want that.

 

He's been with the Twins more than 30 years.  I don't see that changing.

[jokin]

Interestingly enough, the Twins are 14th in the MLB in total revenue (TV included) with $221M, just behind the Angels, Nationals and  Mets and ahead of Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox (and check out how their neighbors spend) .   As far as operating income goes (earnings before taxes etc) they are 5th in the MLB.  

 

You can check the data here (Forbes; sortable list)  

 

They need no excuses and there are none.

 

The fact is, both Terry Ryan and Dave St Peter endorsed the idea of an ~$85M payroll for 2015 when they held their conference call with season ticket holders in late October. 

It seems obvious based on the results of season ticket sales that that notion went over with the fan base like a lead balloon.  And a month later, apparently with Pohlad's blessing/insistence, the purse strings were opened, Santana and Hunter signed- resultantly moving the payroll up to $106M.  As your evidence documents, I have to think that extra $20-$30M has always been there, it's just not in Ryan's nature to push that envelope. 

[jokin]

Why would Ryan want it?

 

 

 

 

Money.

New challenge.

"My work here is done."

GMs looking forward to the day they get kicked upstaris.

[ashbury]

Money.

New challenge.

"My work here is done."

GMs looking forward to the day they get kicked upstaris.

Ryan a few weeks ago was quoted on the subject of the Toronto job as that he wasn't interested and did not have the necessary skill set to be anything above the GM role where he is now.  I inferred that he likes having someone like Dave St Peter above him to handle the tasks he's not that interested in doing himself - the non-baseball side of the business.

[jokin]

Ryan a few weeks ago was quoted on the subject of the Toronto job as that he wasn't interested and did not have the necessary skill set to be anything above the GM role where he is now.  I inferred that he likes having someone like Dave St Peter above him to handle the tasks he's not that interested in doing himself - the non-baseball side of the business.

 

If the Jays really want him as badly as was alleged, they disagree with Ryan's self-assessment. I'd have to think that Ryan could get the Blue Jays President's title, and parcel out the responsibilities- baseball/non-baseball- any way he sees fit.

[ashbury]

The fact is, both Terry Ryan and Dave St Peter endorsed the idea of an ~$85M payroll for 2015 

The link you provided goes to a page discussing Duquette and the Jays.