When Do We Trust Projections

[ExpectMorePayLess]

I read articles daily about "this prospects" projections and "that prospects" projections.  We continuously want to say "Send him back to AAA" so he can learn more about the game.  That being said:  The Twins have sucked for the last 4 years.  We have sent up prospects regularly from AAA who have not met the standard of a MLB player.  We state that BA and OBP are the keys to making it in the MLB.  Yet one out of two doesn't seem good enough.  "Plate discipline is the key to a long career".  If that is the case - Who have we sent to the majors in the last 4 years who has shown those credentials?  Colabello was the AAA player of the year and there were few TD bloggers who believed in him after his struggles in month two (May) of his MLB career.  

 

What is needed for you, the reader, to have true faith in a prospect?  Projection or Results?  Collabello had Results in the minors and limited results at the MLB level.  Hicks had Projection in the minors and limited results at the MLB level.  Constant theme is limited results at the MLB level.  Vargas and Santana had mixed reviews at the minor league level and now show major projection at the MLB level. 

 

What feeds your inconsistent belief system (Projection or Results)?  And when you decide - How much rope do you give your prospects when they reach the MLB? 

Colabello length (2 month) / Hicks length (3 months) / Vargas length (4months) / Santana length (5 months)?

 

Lastly - Who was the last prospect the MN Twins sent back to AAA, who made a major adjustment, and then returned back to the MLB ready to take off???????????????????????   Can't think of a recent prospect.  So why do we hang our  principles on old standards that haven't proven to be valid for this organization since forever?

The Cubs; Twins; Astros; and Rangers have some of the best minor league systems in baseball.  What will be the common factor in promoting these prospects across the board and monitoring their success?  Will the Twins promotional rituals mirror that of the other 3 highly touted organizations?  Do we even know what the Twins expect from their prospects or do we "all" speculate based on sabermetrics and popular blogger opinion?

[Craig Arko]

I'll believe it when the plaque is in Cooperstown.

[jorgenswest]

I need to see dominance at AA or AAA. Then I need to see the Twins have patience. It can take 1000 plate appearances or 50 starts.

[TheLeviathan]

jorgen nailed it - I need to see them demonstrate mastery through dominance and then they need ample opportunity to adjust at the big league level.

 

As for the last pitcher that went back and then came up - we haven't exactly had a boatload of prospects develop at all the last few years so I'm not sure that question is particularly fair to the argument.  One could stretch an answer into Arcia or Perkins but I'm not sure the question is really all that important.

[dbminn]

There shouldn't be a timeline for sending a prospect back to AAA. He should be sent down if he is overmatched or is not making progress with the hitting coach (especially if the player can't field). The decision to send someone down is easier if you have a major-league replacement for the prospect.

 

Based on WAR, here are a couple of old Twins successfully sent to AAA:

 

Torii Hunter was sent down in 2000 as a 24 year-old and came back a much better player.

Cuddyer was sent down in 2003 as a 24 year-old and improved.

 

Teams in contention or with depth will send top prospects back to AAA to make adjustments. Teams like the current Twins will keep top prospects at the major league level because they have no one else.

 

On contending teams, Gomez and Arcia would have been sent down. The Twins needed them too much, so they've had to "make adjustments" in the majors. It took Gomez 5-6 years to reach his offensive potential. It will probably be 2016 before we see Arcia as an "adjusted" major leaguer.

 

It's possible that the Twins will successfully send players down for seasoning this year or in 2016, as enough prospects begin to reach baseball maturity.

 

The Cubs may have a regular conveyor belt to AAA if they don't trade some prospects. They basically have two players for every position except 1B and C.

[brvama]

I take these projections with a huge grain of salt. They are basically quantified guesses. They're fun to read, but so many variables come into play that it's hard for me to give them much value, especially prospects.

 

As Jorgenswest said, prospects take time and many fail to live up to their promise.

[DocBauer]

Dozier

[lightfoot789]

Cola dominated at triple AAA and wasn't given a chance.  Not a true chance.   I guess there is a projection of OLD too when measuring potential.  I hope he dominates for Toronto.   Hicks past failures will cost so many up and coming prospects a true chance as well.  Any sign of failure will be called the "Hicks syndrom" and back down to triple AAA they go.  I pray Vargas and Santana start off hot.  If there is a team that can aford prospects to fight through struggles at the major league level, it is the Twins.  Retread free agents haven't helped in the past when players are sent down (Fluid, etc.).

[gunnarthor]

 

What is needed for you, the reader, to have true faith in a prospect?  Projection or Results?  Collabello had Results in the minors and limited results at the MLB level.  Hicks had Projection in the minors and limited results at the MLB level.  Constant theme is limited results at the MLB level.  Vargas and Santana had mixed reviews at the minor league level and now show major projection at the MLB level. 

 

The Cubs; Twins; Astros; and Rangers have some of the best minor league systems in baseball.  What will be the common factor in promoting these prospects across the board and monitoring their success?  Will the Twins promotional rituals mirror that of the other 3 highly touted organizations?  Do we even know what the Twins expect from their prospects or do we "all" speculate based on sabermetrics and popular blogger opinion?

 

I'm much bigger on projection than results, I guess.  Guys like Colabello, Parmelee and even Plouffe when he was crushing AAA pitching were old for their level and I didn't really trust them to be ML hitters.  I think the things I care about the most are 1) age of the prospect to his competition.  Berrios, at 20 in AA, had worse numbers than other starters like Gilmartin, Taylor, Wheeler.  But he's a heck of lot better prospect then those three. 2) For hitters, I think stats that show some understanding of the strike zone - Sano strikes out a lot but does take a walk.  Adam Walker doesn't.  So I trust Sano more to make the adjustments as he goes up the ladder.  3) High prospect status at AA or above.  If they are still ranked well after tasting AA, they are more likely to succeed.  4)I trust elite level guys a whole lot more than a top 50 player.

 

I'm not sure the Astros are a "highly touted" organization.  

 

But I think the Twins are doing fine on the promotions.  It takes players time to adjust.  Morneau was a top 20 prospect and he still needed about 1000 ML PA before he became the player we think about.  In the last three years, they've promoted 4 top 100 guys to the majors (Hicks, Gibson, Arcia, Pinto).  And May was a top 100 guy before.  They got some good results from some less regarded prospects - Dozier, Santana, Vargas.  They have a bunch of highly regarded guys at AA or above - Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Berrios, Meyer, May.  It'll work out.

[jimmer]

There were at least a few farm system rankings that had the Astros top 5 going into last season and it doesn't look like they've hurt that at all.  In fact, Sporting News had the top three, in order, Astros, Pirates, Twins. Baseball Prospectus had them 5th. John Sickels had them 3rd. The Astros farm system is highly touted.  Completely rebuilding that team.  They aren't as far along as the Cubs though, another team with a great farm system with players actually right on the cusp already. 

[gunnarthor]

There were at least a few farm system rankings that had the Astros top 5 going into last season and it doesn't look like they've hurt that at all.  In fact, Sporting News had the top three, in order, Astros, Pirates, Twins. Baseball Prospectus had them 5th. John Sickels had them 3rd. The Astros farm system is highly touted.  Completely rebuilding that team.  They aren't as far along as the Cubs though, another team with a great farm system with players actually right on the cusp already. 

Well, they traded away several guys including Folty and Ruiz and Singleton and Springer graduated.  They might be top 5 but I'm not sure.  I like us, Cubs, Red Sox, Pirates more without thinking about it much.  But "highly touted" I took to mean the organization, not the farm system.  The Astros the last few years have been so dysfunctional that I don't think you can label them a highly touted organization.  

[jimmer]

Well, they traded away several guys including Folty and Ruiz and Singleton and Springer graduated.  They might be top 5 but I'm not sure.  I like us, Cubs, Red Sox, Pirates more without thinking about it much.  But "highly touted" I took to mean the organization, not the farm system.  The Astros the last few years have been so dysfunctional that I don't think you can label them a highly touted organization.  

I don't think we're a highly touted organization either at the moment.  In the context of his post, in the way that paragraph was written, he was clearly talking about the farm system when he said highly touted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Torii Hunter was sent down in 2000 as a 24 year-old and came back a much better player.

Cuddyer was sent down in 2003 as a 24 year-old and improved.

Something certainly clicked for Hunter at age 24 -- basically went from a 10 HR/year player to a 25-30 HR/year player.

 

Cuddyer's stat line doesn't suggest any immediate dividends from his return trips to AAA.  He was the same basic hitter throughout his minor league career, and was similarly consistent in his MLB performances until his version of Hunter's power surge just after his 27th birthday.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But I think the Twins are doing fine on the promotions.  It takes players time to adjust.  Morneau was a top 20 prospect and he still needed about 1000 ML PA before he became the player we think about.

Agreed it takes time to adjust, but first impressions matter too.  After his first cup of coffee, Morneau was still an average and sometimes even above average MLB hitter over those first 1000 PA until his breakout in 2006.  Same with Cuddyer.  Even Hunter was basically classic Hunter in his first full MLB season, minus some power.  This bodes well for Arcia on the current club!

 

I feel that development cases like Gomez or Dozier aren't quite as common as many claim.  Which does not bode well for Hicks.

[jimmer]

Agreed it takes time to adjust, but first impressions matter too.  After his first cup of coffee, Morneau was still an average and sometimes even above average MLB hitter over those first 1000 PA until his breakout in 2006.  Same with Cuddyer.  Even Hunter was basically classic Hunter in his first full MLB season, minus some power.  This bodes well for Arcia on the current club!

 

I feel that development cases like Gomez or Dozier aren't quite as common as many claim.  Which does not bode well for Hicks.

Have to remember the offseason Morneau had prior to the 2005 season.  Talk about being cursed.  Man got slammed with ailment after ailment.  He wasn't able to properly prepare for 2005.

[Shane Wahl]

Constant progression matters most. The majority of major leaguers didn't "dominate" AAA. However, I always think that thinks should move but not move too quickly. Aaron Hicks had no business doing anything else but starting in AAA in 2013. If a guy is truly dominating AA, then that is one thing (Sano, and to a lesser extent Vargas and Arcia).

With pitchers it is different. I just see k/bb rate and innings pitched mattering most. It takes time to work on pitches and develop them well enough so that you have at least three good ones for MLB. Hitters can get away with living on fastballs for a bit longer.

 

I also don't think so much is lost for hitters, at least, taking there lumps on losing teams, as long as they are put lower in the order (big mistake with Hicks). Ultimately, nothing prepares one more for the majors than the majors. The Twins pre-2012 waited too long on many guys. The are now doing it again with regard solely to their pitchers.

 

I am perplexed by the signing of guys who have really no better numbers than organizational guys (Shane Robinson vs. Danny Ortiz, for instance).

 

To me, mediocre veterans on rebuilding teams are the absolute worst unless they provide significant off-field value or in clubhouse value.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Agreed.  Hunter has a purpose to me. [ On the field and Off ]   Robinson maybe, but why not take a chance on an Ortiz or Rosario?  I think young people only go into a hole when they aren't prepared for the possibility of failure.  If it is explained that they are probably going to fail because they are being moved up quickly and that the organization wants them to learn to fight thru it - It doesn't become an end all promotion.  Kids are a lot more resilient than you might expect when spoken to with crystal clear expectations.  Live and Learn

 

PROMOTE THEM ALL

[jimmer]

Agreed.  Hunter has a purpose to me.

 

 

Hunter's purpose is to get bottoms in the seats.