Qualifying offer craziness

[Thrylos]

Looks like teams are handing out qualifying offers left and right for $15.3 M.  Including to former Twins Liriano and Cuddyer.  If this continues, I suspect that a lot of players will accept those offers and the market will go crazy. 

[Rosterman]

Interesting. Not a bad deal to get another year of a prize player (and you always have the option of still trading the player during the season. If the player accepts, they delay their own free agency...one year, with a decent payday going forth and riches beyond depending on performance.

 

A gamble. If the player refuses, will they be harder to get a job. I see a few more accepting out the gate than last year.

[RedBull34]

Have to assume Cuddy takes it.  Liriano and Santana probably too? 

[Brandon]

I would be real surprised if Cuddyer didn't accept that.  How much more can he make on a new contract 2 year 22 to 25 million would be my guess maybe a third year or a 3rd year option with a buyout. 

 

Same with Liriano but he is more likely to get hurt so if he thinks he can get a 2 or 3 year deal it may be worth more for a lower AAV say 3/39.

[biggentleben]

Cuddyer will be interesting as this is probably his last shot at a 3 year contract or longer, but he won't get AAV of $15.3M in that contract.  Liriano is young enough that he might prefer secure money for 3-4 years over one year of big money.  Baseball contracts are 100% guaranteed (unless there's a clause in for misbehavior, etc.), so if you were 30+, you might be more inclined to take 3 years and $30M over one year at $15.3M knowing that any year your market could fall through the floor and you never do end up making the rest of that $30M.

[kab21]

I don't think it's so crazy.  I broke down my thoughts on who would get QO's a month+ ago in a different thread and I thought teams would give a lot more offers than others thought. 

 

For some of the players (like Liriano and Martin) it's a matter of having the ability to fit a 1 yr contract into budget.  I didn't think Cuddyer would get an offer but that was due to the Rockies team direction (rebuild) and if he was on a different team (a contender) I could easily see a team locking him in for one more year.  Teams are scared of multiyear contracts for guys like Cuddyer or VMart but the damage is limited on a 1 yr deal even if it is an overpay per season.

 

A not so bold prediction.  Santana is turning that offer down and he will get the contract (or more) he wanted last offseason despite the draft pick loss.  We will however see some guys accept the offer unlike last offseason.  Quite a few guys that teams aren't going to be excited about committing multiple years to on the list so far and it gets tougher for them when there is a draft pick attached to their FA signing.

[Thrylos]

Cuddyer will be 36 next season.  For comparison's purpose, Mauer's contract runs through his age 35 season.  He would be nuts not to accept that $15.3M   Liriano as well.  He is young enough that he can go out there and have a great season (he did not have on in 2014) and then shoot for a multi-year contract. 

[kab21]

Cuddyer will be 36 next season.  For comparison's purpose, Mauer's contract runs through his age 35 season.  He would be nuts not to accept that $15.3M   Liriano as well.  He is young enough that he can go out there and have a great season (he did not have on in 2014) and then shoot for a multi-year contract. 

 

It's almost certain that Cuddyer will accept that offer.  No doubt.  There will be others that accept as well unlike last year.  I don't understand why the market will go crazy if this happens.

 

Liriano is a more interesting case.  Teams need pitching but Liriano has so many red flags that make a 3-4 year contract a no go for many teams.  The draft pick loss eliminates more teams.  He might have not have any teams in on him this offseason.  I could easily see Liriano getting the Santana treatment if he declines.

[Thrylos]

Here is the full list of Free Agents who were offered Qualifying Offers:

 

Max Scherzer (Tigers)
    Victor Martinez (Tigers)
    David Robertson (Yankees)
    Melky Cabrera (Blue Jays)
    James Shields (Royals)
    Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers)
    Pablo Sandoval (Giants)
    Nelson Cruz (Orioles)
    Russell Martin (Pirates)
    Francisco Liriano (Pirates)
    Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
    Ervin Santana (Braves)

[DocBauer]

Blows my mind how anyone could not accept a 1yr guarantee of $15M. Especially if you were in the 32/33-35 yo range like Cuddy and a few others. Especially when you saw what happened last year with a few guys overvaluing themselves and being left out in the cold, at least initially.

 

Scherzer is obviously an exception here. Not sure Santana is. He ended up with a decent contract last season after being shut out initially. But most of his numbers actually regressed despite pitching the the reportedly more friendly NL. Can he really count on the big 2-3 yr deal this offseason? Maybe.

 

Should the Twins decide to move forward with any of these players, I believe I'm correct that their 1st pick is safe, but they would sacrifice their 2nd round pick. I'd hate to give that pick up, but protecting a top 1st rounder has to make a serious move much more comfortable.

[Rosterman]

Blows my mind how anyone could not accept a 1yr guarantee of $15M. Especially if you were in the 32/33-35 yo range like Cuddy and a few others. Especially when you saw what happened last year with a few guys overvaluing themselves and being left out in the cold, at least initially.

 

Scherzer is obviously an exception here. Not sure Santana is. He ended up with a decent contract last season after being shut out initially. But most of his numbers actually regressed despite pitching the the reportedly more friendly NL. Can he really count on the big 2-3 yr deal this offseason? Maybe.

 

Should the Twins decide to move forward with any of these players, I believe I'm correct that their 1st pick is safe, but they would sacrifice their 2nd round pick. I'd hate to give that pick up, but protecting a top 1st rounder has to make a serious move much more comfortable.

I don't see any name above coming to the Twins unless they make an outrageous offer. It just isn't in my crystal ball. 

[stringer bell]

I think the QO locks Cuddyer up in Colorado. He might end up with 2-24 or something like that. I like Cuddyer a lot, but I guess Colorado really likes him to make that kind of guarantee.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It is a little bit baffling to me from Colorado's perspective - they could have spent that 15.3MM on pitching this offseason.

 

I guess they are hoping that Cuddyer declines it and then some team (like the Mets) loses their minds and offers a three year deal to Cuddyer.

 

To me, it seems like Cuddyer would be crazy to turn down $15.3MM, but maybe he thinks he can get 2-3 years on the open market for more total dollars. If he (and his agent) think that he can sign one last multi-year deal, it might be worth the risk.

 

But the player needs to factor in that the other teams will not just be paying the player, but also giving up a draft pick. Who will think that Cuddyer is worth both a multi-year deal AND a draft pick?

[markos]

Here is the full list of Free Agents who were offered Qualifying Offers:

 

Max Scherzer (Tigers)

    Victor Martinez (Tigers)

    David Robertson (Yankees)

    Melky Cabrera (Blue Jays)

    James Shields (Royals)

    Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers)

    Pablo Sandoval (Giants)

    Nelson Cruz (Orioles)

    Russell Martin (Pirates)

    Francisco Liriano (Pirates)

    Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)

    Ervin Santana (Braves)

Of this list, I think Cuddyer is the only one to accept. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm guessing Colorodo's QO to Cuddyer is simply buying time to talk extension.  The guy has to love playing there judging by the back of his baseball card the last two years.

 

Three years in and the Twins still haven't had a player worthy of a QO.  Disappointing.  I'm sure Duensing will be worth one next year.

[tobi0040]

Of this list, I think Cuddyer is the only one to accept. 

 

Robertson maybe....$14M is a lot for a closer.  But I guess not really in Yankee terms.

[kab21]

Of this list, I think Cuddyer is the only one to accept. 

 

A 36 yr old broken down former catcher coming off of a career season?

An often injured steroid linked 34 yr old slugger that is a liability in the OF?

A 31 yr old inconsistent pitcher that has topped 165 innings once in his career?

A 32 yr old catcher that had his best season since 2007?

 

It will be interesting to see which guys opt for FA but I could easily see any of the above getting the cold shoulder in FA.  Teams don't line up to offer multi-year big buck deals to these types.  Add in the draft pick effect and it's even more difficult.

[Kwak]

I'm guessing Colorodo's QO to Cuddyer is simply buying time to talk extension.  The guy has to love playing there judging by the back of his baseball card the last two years.

 

Three years in and the Twins still haven't had a player worthy of a QO.  Disappointing.  I'm sure Duensing will be worth one next year.

Duensing???

[Linus]

Of this list, I think Cuddyer is the only one to accept. 

Liriano would be crazy not to accept.  He is so inconsistent that it would be very hard for any team to give up a draft pick and sign him to a long term deal for decent money.  No way I would want the Twins to do it.

 

If Liriano doesn't accept, he will be taking far less money.  Perhaps the same amount for two years.

[DuluthFan]

The qualifying offer system seems to be the first step in a sign and trade system that is used in the NBA. A team that wants a player that has been offered a QO is 'trading' a draft pick for him.

 

It will only be a short time before an agent realizes that he can work this system to his client's advantage. The agent would not only negotiate a contract with the new team, he would also attempt to negotiate a trade of prospects between the two teams. Once the terms are agreed to, the original team signs the player and trades him to the new team for the agreed upon players, thereby bypassing the first round pick.

[tobi0040]

The qualifying offer system seems to be the first step in a sign and trade system that is used in the NBA. A team that wants a player that has been offered a QO is 'trading' a draft pick for him.

 

It will only be a short time before an agent realizes that he can work this system to his client's advantage. The agent would not only negotiate a contract with the new team, he would also attempt to negotiate a trade of prospects between the two teams. Once the terms are agreed to, the original team signs the player and trades him to the new team for the agreed upon players, thereby bypassing the first round pick.

 

I am guessing this has been explored.  The main issue is an agent can't negotiate a contract with another team, that is tampering.  The only thing close is a trade has to be worked out and a negotiating window, a la Johan Santana to the Mets.

[James]

It's good to put into perspective that no player has ever accepted a QO.  It's an interesting case.  I think Cuddyer probably wants to play 2 more seasons, but I'm not sure which team would be willing to give up a draft pick for him.  

 

With all these QO's that we're seeing this year, I wonder if one team will decide to lock up a few of these guys, and basically punt on the draft this year.  Seems like a risky strategy, but most likely, one of these players will probably be better than a teams second or third round draft pick.

[nicksaviking]

Duensing???

 

Clearly a bargain!

 

If not, surely Pelfrey will be worth it.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Realistically, who's the first Twin that will be tendered a Qualifying offer? Phil Hughes in three years? Maybe Brian Dozier? Most of their roster is still too young, or would never be given a contract the size of the QO.

 

This year, I think Cuddyer will take it, or at least re-sign with Colorado rather than with another team. Even if Cuddyer rejects the QO, I don't think any team will offer him a better contract than Colorado can at this point.

 

Liriano might do it, too, but I'm guessing he's worth 3-4 years on the open market, so he'd take less annually and at 3-4 years it might be worth one draft pick to the team signing him....

 

Victor Martinez might decide to take it, too - 15MM is probably about his ceiling for annual value anyway, and he may or may not be planning to play that much longer...

[markos]

A 36 yr old broken down former catcher coming off of a career season?

An often injured steroid linked 34 yr old slugger that is a liability in the OF?

A 31 yr old inconsistent pitcher that has topped 165 innings once in his career?

A 32 yr old catcher that had his best season since 2007?

 

It will be interesting to see which guys opt for FA but I could easily see any of the above getting the cold shoulder in FA.  Teams don't line up to offer multi-year big buck deals to these types.  Add in the draft pick effect and it's even more difficult.

I think the liabilities that you mention are reasons these players SHOULD decline the qualifying offers. They may not be in line to exceed the AAV of the qualifying offer, but they will probably get multi-year deals which would mitigate some of their future risk if they fall off a cliff or get injured. Granted, I'm fairly risk-adverse, so it makes sense to me for Cruz or Martinez to take even a 2yr/$24MM deal over a 1yr/$15MM qualifying offer. 

 

Also, I wonder if more teams are going to try to Baltimore model and try to sign multiple QO free agents to minimize the draft impact. There are several big-market clubs that have protected first round picks this year (Texas, Boston, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies) who might go that route. In particular, I could definitely see the White Sox doing that.

[tobi0040]

I think the liabilities that you mention are reasons these players SHOULD decline the qualifying offers. They may not be in line to exceed the AAV of the qualifying offer, but they will probably get multi-year deals which would mitigate some of their future risk if they fall off a cliff or get injured. Granted, I'm fairly risk-adverse, so it makes sense to me for Cruz or Martinez to take even a 2yr/$24MM deal over a 1yr/$15MM qualifying offer. 

 

Also, I wonder if more teams are going to try to Baltimore model and try to sign multiple QO free agents to minimize the draft impact. There are several big-market clubs that have protected first round picks this year (Texas, Boston, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies) who might go that route. In particular, I could definitely see the White Sox doing that.

 

I think the numbers quoted here for Cruz and Martinez are extremely low.

[kab21]

I think the liabilities that you mention are reasons these players SHOULD decline the qualifying offers. They may not be in line to exceed the AAV of the qualifying offer, but they will probably get multi-year deals which would mitigate some of their future risk if they fall off a cliff or get injured. Granted, I'm fairly risk-adverse, so it makes sense to me for Cruz or Martinez to take even a 2yr/$24MM deal over a 1yr/$15MM qualifying offer. 

 

Also, I wonder if more teams are going to try to Baltimore model and try to sign multiple QO free agents to minimize the draft impact. There are several big-market clubs that have protected first round picks this year (Texas, Boston, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies) who might go that route. In particular, I could definitely see the White Sox doing that.

Do you think these liabilities are that much different than the liabilities that Drew, Santana and Morales had when they were shut out of the FA market last year?  Santana finally signed but really late in the offseason.

 

I also wouldn't call it the Baltimore model.  Teams did this for a long time in the arbitration system before QO's. 

 

It's good to put into perspective that no player has ever accepted a QO.  It's an interesting case.  I think Cuddyer probably wants to play 2 more seasons, but I'm not sure which team would be willing to give up a draft pick for him.  

 

With all these QO's that we're seeing this year, I wonder if one team will decide to lock up a few of these guys, and basically punt on the draft this year.  Seems like a risky strategy, but most likely, one of these players will probably be better than a teams second or third round draft pick.

 

It's a little early to make this statement especially when players and agents have the ramifications of declining the QO.  Two players last year didn't get signed until June, missed spring training and had awful seasons killing their FA value this offseason.  The borderline players on the list don't want to be in that position despite what Boras whispers in their ear.

[markos]

Do you think these liabilities are that much different than the liabilities that Drew, Santana and Morales had when they were shut out of the FA market last year?  Santana finally signed but really late in the offseason.

 

I also wouldn't call it the Baltimore model.  Teams did this for a long time in the arbitration system before QO's. 

Morales did have different liabilities. I don't think he is nearly as good as the 4 players you alluded to above. Morales was in a similar position as Cuddyer this year. I think Cuddyer would be crazy to decline the QO, just like I though Morales was crazy to decline it last year. 

 

Drew and Santana had similar liabilities, I will give you that. But I think they both grossly misjudged their respective markets, which had as much to do with their ultimate situation as did declining the QO. Santana in particular. He was asking for a $100MM deal. Considering Jimenez signed a 4yr/$50MM deal with a QO attached, I'm fairly sure Santana could have found something similar had he been open to it right away. And it should be noted that he ended up signing for exact the QO amount, so he didn't lose a thing by declining the QO (except maybe a chance to go to the World Series). According to the rumors, Drew had some offers (including multi-year offers) early in the offseason, but turned them down. Looking back, I was wrong about Drew. I definitely though he would have a bigger market, and I thought he would be a much better player this year.

 

It will be interesting to see if any players wait until June to sign this year. 

 

Who do you consider the borderline players this year? Were you saying in your previous post that Liriano, Martin, Cruz and Martinez should all accept the QO?

[kab21]

I'm not exactly saying that those 4 should accept the QO.  I'm saying that they should prepare to be ignored in FA if they do.  Predicting what teams will be interested in certain players is an inexact science but 35ish yr old DH's have a limited market.  Cruz and VMart had a better season than 2013 Kendrys but it also looks like an outlier (unexpectedly good) and they are old and injury prone.  There won't be a line outside their agent's door.  Same goes for a 32 yr old catcher that had a career season.  It only takes one team to say 'that's our guy' and sign one of them but not all of these guys will have that team.

 

Santana might have floated a 100M number but it doesn't mean anything.  Nolasco floated a 80M number and he signed almost immediately for 50ish.  Santana's problem was that there were only X number of teams that would sign a 30+ inconsistent starter for 4+ seasons and give up a draft pick.  That's the problem that Liriano (and even Santana) will face this year.  Shields, Santana and Liriano form a 2nd tier of FA's and there are going to be limited teams that are shelling out 50-80M for a 30+ SP and give up a draft pick.