Article: Contemplating the Royals... and the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

They won 72 games the year they made the trade....they did not wait until they KNEW they were "one player away". Basically, it looked to everyone in baseball, that they lost patience and said "screw it, we're going to try to win", rather than "let's wait until we win 80+ games to try to fill in the holes".

 

When TR trades a TOP prospect for "expensive" MLB players, it will be first time he's ever done that in his long career, even though it was 100% clear they were 1 player away from being better the last time he was GM. Jason bleeping Tyner and Rich Becker were DHs for goodness sakes.

Edited October 17, 2014 by mike wants wins

[bird]

Vargas is likely to go through the same adjustment period Arcia went through last year - I'm a really strong advocate for people being realistic about how long it takes prospects to find success in the big leagues.  Trouts are the exception, not the rule.

 

Many of these players may maintain their offensive success, but the odds are heavily stacked against it.

KC is a great example in support of this. Butler, Moustakis, and Hosmer were all much more highly regarded as top 10 draft choices than Arcia, Santana, and Vargas, and look how they have struggled early in their careers. The light at the end of the tunnel is that most of these supremely talented players eventually figures it out to at least some extent, although very few hit their heads on their hometown fans' envisioned ceiling it seems.

[bird]

They won 72 games the year they made the trade....they did not wait until they KNEW they were "one player away". Basically, it looked to everyone in baseball, that they lost patience and said "screw it, we're going to try to win", rather than "let's wait until we win 80+ games to try to fill in the holes".

 

When TR trades a TOP prospect for "expensive" MLB players, it will be first time he's ever done that in his long career, even though it was 100% clear they were 1 player away from being better the last time he was GM. Jason bleeping Tyner and Rich Becker were DHs for goodnace sakes.

I respectfully disagree with your first conclusion, mike. I believe KC knew exactly where they were in the rebuild process when they made the Shields trade. 

 

But you're right, TR will probably never trade a truly impact prospect for a MLB player. Why? Because his third most-valuable prospect, Alex Meyer, nets him a non-impact player like, say, Span. He has two prospects or so that fit the Will Myers profile, would you agree? Maybe he thinks Rosario will be better than Span by mid-year, just like maybe he thought Santana would be better than Stephen Drew, we don't know. But why trade a top prospect whose value is yet to be realized for a player who isn't a game-changer for you?

[mbents]

I respectfully disagree, mike. I believe KC knew exactly where they were in the rebuild process. 

 

I respectfully disagree with this. I think you're giving Dayton Moore too much credit. When he made the trade for Shields, it was a desperate attempt to save his job and get the team to a .500 record. If we could give Dayton Moore truth serum somehow (like, legally and not in a weird way), I bet he would admit that even he didn't expect this. The Royals' win total increased by 14 games from 2012 to 2013. That's a pretty big jump. With the way it's worked out, though, Moore is now getting credit for his "process".

[bird]

I respectfully disagree with this. I think you're giving Dayton Moore too much credit. When he made the trade for Shields, it was a desperate attempt to save his job and get the team to a .500 record. If we could give Dayton Moore truth serum somehow (like, legally and not in a weird way), I bet he would admit that even he didn't expect this. The Royals' win total increased by 14 games from 2012 to 2013. That's a pretty big jump. With the way it's worked out, though, Moore is now getting credit for his "process".

I can see how you think this. Someone penned an article yesterday, asking rhetorically if Neil Huntington and Dayton Moore suddenly got smarter. And I agree that Moore was probably very concerned about his job at the time of the trade. But I strongly disagree that there were any people in positions of influence in KC that thought they were making the Shields trade in a desperate attempt to get to .500. Not even Dayton. They are a very competent organization now, from a scouting and drafting perspective.

 

Moore is the GM, and KC has surrounded him with some very competent people in their scouting and development system. My hunch is that every move being made requires other signatures from within the organization, especially something like the Shields trade. I also doubt Moore's imprint on their Rule 4 draft success is significant. And if we read carefully, we're witnessing Moore giving out effusive praise and credit, as he should, to these people. I haven't heard him talk about it as " my process", but rather more as "our rebuild strategy".

[drjim]

Keith Law made an interesting reference on the Buster Olney podcast yesterday to the Royals front office - called it "Twins South" as a place that competent people go and enjoy working for in the front office. They have very strong loyalty and continuity from employees and dissension (if there is any) does not leak.

 

I personally think that for the weaknesses the Twins front office (and Terry Ryan) have, real or imagined, this was one of their massive strengths that is often forgotten. The flip side, of course, could be that it is perhaps too comfortable in their positions or too insular in their ideas, but I'm not conviced that is the case.

 

Strong, competent leadership from a person of high integrity and humility, and workers that are loyal, committed and on the same page generally leads to positive results. Probably the main reason I remain optimistic about Terry Ryan getting this turned around sooner rather than leader.

 

I also think that when Ryan resigned and Bill Smith took over, a significant piece of this was lost, which led to some of the rot within the organization that has taken a couple of years to truly clean up.

[Willihammer]

KC is a great example in support of this. Butler, Moustakis, and Hosmer were all much more highly regarded as top 10 draft choices than Arcia, Santana, and Vargas, and look how they have struggled early in their careers. The light at the end of the tunnel is that most of these supremely talented players eventually figures it out to at least some extent, although very few hit their heads on their hometown fans' envisioned ceiling it seems.

Maybe the industry is just biased. We all assumed Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler, and Gordon would emerge to form the Royals core. But only Gordon was worth more than 1 WAR this year. Instead, its been every bit as much the Latins - Perez, Escobar, Herrera, and Ventura who have brought that team to the promised land.

 

Its not hard to see the Twins future playing out similarly. We've already seen top 10 guys - Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers, and Hendriks, stall if not bust. Meanwhile a crop of Latins has come up and produced pretty much from the word go.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Willihammer

[Mike Sixel]

Dave Cameron has an article on Fangfaphs today, talking about because of the size of the payoff, he may have underestimated the value of being an 85 (expected) win team.....which I found instructive.

[Secondary User]

Ash, you raise a good question.......that I don't know the answer to. Were the Twins consistently scoring 4-5 runs a game, or was the deviation big?

 

 

The Twins ranked 7th in the league in number of games scoring 2 or more runs, 7th in games scoring 3 or more runs, 3rd in games scoring 4 or more runs, and 14th scoring 5 or more runs, 10th in 6 or more, 12th in 7 or more, 8th in 8 or more, 7th in 9 or more, and 5th in 10 or more.

 

They ranked no lower than 14th, and were consistantly 5-8 (which is where they ended up the season).  I don't think there's any real significant variation, and the offense performed fairly consistently.

[Mike Sixel]

Awesome, thanks for the stats!

[Secondary User]

Its not hard to see the Twins future playing out similarly. We've already seen top 10 guys - Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers, and Hendriks, stall if not bust. Meanwhile a crop of Latins has come up and produced pretty much from the word go.

 

Let's be honest here, comparing Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers and Hendricks to Moustakas, Hosmer, et al is not exactly fair.  They were completely different caliber of prospects.

 

I definitely believe guys like Santana, Vargas, Polanco could play a more significant role for the Twins like Perez, Herrera, Escobar and Ventura did for the Royals

Edited October 17, 2014 by Secondary User

[Willihammer]

Let's be honest here, comparing Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers and Hendricks to Moustakas, Hosmer, et al is not exactly fair.  They were completely different caliber of prospects.

That's not really the comparison I'm trying to make. I'm comparing the "core" prospects aka. Rule 4 draftees to the amateur free agents aka. Latins within each system. The Royals and Twins systems are similar in that to date, the Latins have matched, maybe exceeded, the domestic talents.

 

At some point we have to move from "sometimes top prospects take time" to "we got our rankings wrong."

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins ranked 7th in the league in number of games scoring 2 or more runs, 7th in games scoring 3 or more runs, 3rd in games scoring 4 or more runs, and 14th scoring 5 or more runs, 10th in 6 or more, 12th in 7 or more, 8th in 8 or more, 7th in 9 or more, and 5th in 10 or more.

 

They ranked no lower than 14th, and were consistantly 5-8 (which is where they ended up the season).  I don't think there's any real significant variation, and the offense performed fairly consistently.

 

I'd be even more curious to see how many runs the Twins scored this year after they were already down by more than 5 runs.  It could totally be perceptual bias, but it felt like a lot of 10-1 games became 10-7.  Those 6 runs are counted the same as if it was a 6-5 win, but meant very little in the bigger picture.

[TheLeviathan]

I personally think that for the weaknesses the Twins front office (and Terry Ryan) have, real or imagined, this was one of their massive strengths that is often forgotten. The flip side, of course, could be that it is perhaps too comfortable in their positions or too insular in their ideas, but I'm not conviced that is the case.

 

Stability and a comfort level working together is a strength.  Insularity can even be a strength....if you have the right balance of voices to begin with.

 

I don't think the problem the Twins have had is purely cemented in insularity, but the insularity of the organization has made them too comfortable in being gun shy because everyone is too stuck in a passive/patient form of team building.

[ashbury]

I'd be even more curious to see how many runs the Twins scored this year after they were already down by more than 5 runs.  It could totally be perceptual bias, but it felt like a lot of 10-1 games became 10-7.  Those 6 runs are counted the same as if it was a 6-5 win, but meant very little in the bigger picture.

It happened some.  I don't know if it was a "lot".  But even a few of these tends to raise the run total from below average to above average.  But... it happens to other teams too.  Someone with 'leet stats skills needs to define some things, and then run the numbers for me.

[bird]

That's not really the comparison I'm trying to make. I'm comparing the "core" prospects aka. Rule 4 draftees to the amateur free agents aka. Latins within each system. The Royals and Twins systems are similar in that to date, the Latins have matched, maybe exceeded, the domestic talents.

 

At some point we have to move from "sometimes top prospects take time" to "we got our rankings wrong."

Going back to the comparison you were trying to make then. You mentioned you can see the Twins ultimately ending up with similar results to KC in terms of Rule 4 production (correct me if I'm wrong). You used Butler, Hosmer, Moose and Gordon as your examples, which is understandable but also paints a very incomplete picture of the contribution they gotten from Rule 4.

 

Let's HOPE we get even more contribution from our Rule 4 guys, and faster. What I find most instructive is that KC's success is 90% the result of combination of international signings and Rule 4 selections, both of which are part of rebuilding via your own farm system.

[SwainZag]

One thing I want to mention about the Royals season besides from the obvious...........look how healthy they have been.  All 9 of their regular starting lineup played in 130 or more games, their 4 regular starting pitchers all started 30+ times (The 5th spot was Chen to start the season, 7 starts, and replaced by Duffy, 25 starts) and their core 5 guys in the pen all appeared in 60+ games.  

 

It's a huge advantage to have basically your entire roster healthy all season and not have any lingering injury to any core part of your team.  

[Major League Ready]

How many here would trade Buxton, a SP prospect equivalent to Odorizzi, and a couple other prospects for a one game playoff?  It just so happens that KC got very hot and it has worked out but would you make the trade knowing it was for a one game playoff?

[Kwak]

KC also traded Grienke, before they were even close to being a playoff team, and they obtained quite a haul!  But also consider it had been 28 years since they had a playoff game when they made the trade with Tampa Bay.

[Willihammer]

How many here would trade Buxton, a SP prospect equivalent to Odorizzi, and a couple other prospects for a one game playoff?  It just so happens that KC got very hot and it has worked out but would you make the trade knowing it was for a one game playoff?

I'd make that trade. If, like the Royals trade, it puts the Twins in a position to improve by 15 games in year 1 - in contention through the last week of the season, followed by a wild card berth in year 2, and be left with a similarly strong core and strong farm system in place (and at least 1 comp pick coming)... yes, absolutely I make that trade.

[TheLeviathan]

How many here would trade Buxton, a SP prospect equivalent to Odorizzi, and a couple other prospects for a one game playoff?  It just so happens that KC got very hot and it has worked out but would you make the trade knowing it was for a one game playoff?

 

Your scenario sort of fell apart when you said Buxton = Meyers.  

[chopper0080]

First off - The royals grasped the most basic concept behind winning a World Series...you have to make the playoffs.  This is where I believe Ryan has failed, but could make quick process if he was willing to take a gamble.

 

Secondly - Getting hot, and winning big games is about having something you can hang your hat on as a team.  Something you can go out and do, control, execute.  In baseball, the easiest of these is defense.  After defense, putting together a shut down bullpen is next.  Hitting and starting pitching comes with a ton of variables.  Building a team which can say, every game, we are going to play top notch defense, and shut down games from the 6th or 7th inning is an easy way to a contender which is what the Royals have found out. 

 

If I am the Twins, this is what I emulate.  I trade Sano/Arcia for a plus outfielder who can hit, or a legit #1 SP (Mat Latos would be fine).  If Buxton can be a plus outfielder right away, I bring him up.  I bring Meyer up from day one to pitch in a bull pen role.  Same with Reed and Burndi.  I sign a legit infield and outfield utility player, Hicks could be that guy.  I bring in a manager who understands the need for defense, and can get the team motivated to this thinking.

 

Latos

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

 

Meyer

Reed

Burdi

Perkins

 

Honestly, with that pitching staff and a good defense, we can get to the playoffs.

[Major League Ready]

If the Twins were to approach this type of trade, Buxton is the closest comp.  We can't trade Meyers because he is not under contract with the MN Twins.  Therefore, Buxton and Meyers are equal in this scenario.

 

The Royals did not improve by 15 games because of this trade.  They improved by 15 games because a whole host of other players, some that were still prospects when this trade was made, improved the team.  The Royals we also very fortunate in terms of injury of lack thereof.

 

Most fans think quite differently than GMs or for that matter leaders of most organizations.  Fans think much shorter term - We still don't know if Will Meyers is going to be the star he projected to be as Roy or the significantly less effective injured player from last year.  However, from a management decision perspective.  The projected cost was 4-6 WAR per year for 4 years after this year.  I am not a fan of WAR but it illustrates this case clearly.   4-6 games could very well keep them out of the playoffs more than once over the next 4 yrs.

[TheLeviathan]

The Royals did not improve by 15 games because of this trade.  

 

No one is really arguing this, it's a strawman.  What the trade was designed to do was boost the Royals even further along with the very improvements you went on to list.  KC anticipated those improvements and traded to augment it.  Whereas many feel you need to wait for the improvements to happen to be aggressive.

 

The truth is that the Royals dealt a corner OF at this peak value (when he was seen as a legit CF) for a cost-controlled, known quantity and some other ready talent.  Could it still hurt them down the line?

 

Sure....but I bet their magical run to the World Series will more than offset that pain.  Even if they don't win the title that trade and the logic behind it has been more than vindicated.  It's time for people to just accept that.  That doesn't mean it will always work (no course of action building a baseball team does) but it sure as heck was a catalyst to this run and something the Twins should seriously consider as soon as next year.  There are times when you just stop waiting for good fortune and make your own.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No one is really arguing this, it's a strawman.  What the trade was designed to do was boost the Royals even further along with the very improvements you went on to list.  KC anticipated those improvements and traded to augment it.  Whereas many feel you need to wait for the improvements to happen to be aggressive.

 

The truth is that the Royals dealt a corner OF at this peak value (when he was seen as a legit CF) for a cost-controlled, known quantity and some other ready talent.  Could it still hurt them down the line?

 

Sure....but I bet their magical run to the World Series will more than offset that pain.  Even if they don't win the title that trade and the logic behind it has been more than vindicated.  It's time for people to just accept that.  That doesn't mean it will always work (no course of action building a baseball team does) but it sure as heck was a catalyst to this run and something the Twins should seriously consider as soon as next year.  There are times when you just stop waiting for good fortune and make your own.

That's fair. I've been one of the most vocal opponents of that trade from day one... I still don't like the thinking behind it but that comes down to strategy and opinion, which differ. There is more than one way to skin a cat and all that jazz.

 

But the trade worked in the short-term. I still think it was folly to expect that kind of jump in year one but it's certainly playing into the Royals' favor in year two. That cannot be argued at this point.

 

But again, I wasn't against the trade as much as I was the timing. How the Royals finish 2014 and how they play in 2015-2016 is going to factor in on the overall success of the trade and at this point, we simply don't have that information. Either way, it wasn't a failure. The Royals are in the World Series.

[Willihammer]

Most fans think quite differently than GMs or for that matter leaders of most organizations.  Fans think much shorter term - We still don't know if Will Meyers is going to be the star he projected to be as Roy or the significantly less effective injured player from last year.  However, from a management decision perspective.  The projected cost was 4-6 WAR per year for 4 years after this year.  I am not a fan of WAR but it illustrates this case clearly.   4-6 games could very well keep them out of the playoffs more than once over the next 4 yrs.

If GM's projected Wil Myers to go down a borderline HoF career track then the fan perspective is much more grounded in reality.

 

You're also making light of the fact that somehow, even without Wil Myers, the Royals have arguably the best defensive outfield of all time - and decent bats too.

 

That's another reason why the Buxton = Myers equation doesn't work (but I understand why he's the only spec you can use for purposes of the hypothetical). The Twins aren't nearly as loaded with outfielders.

Edited October 21, 2014 by Willihammer

[Otto von Ballpark]

The truth is that the Royals dealt a corner OF at this peak value (when he was seen as a legit CF) for a cost-controlled, known quantity and some other ready talent.

Minor nit: did anyone ever see Myers as a legit CF?  I guess he played it some in the minors but I don't recall anyone thought he'd play it regularly in MLB.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's another reason why the Buxton = Myers equation doesn't work (but I understand why he's the only spec you can use for purposes of the hypothetical). The Twins aren't nearly as loaded with outfielders.

At the time of the trade, the Royals didn't have a loaded outfield.  Actually, they were starting Jeff Francoeur in RF, which is a separate but related problem.

 

If I was the Royals then (or if I were the Twins now), and I was looking to jump-start my franchise, I'd hold onto my assets and just get really aggressive with cash for the top talents in the free agent market (and not settle for wasting cash on lesser talents either).  It's not necessarily a "value" play but it is unquestionably adding talent and not subtracting it.

 

That said, if you are really down on a player or prospect, I kinda like the aggressiveness of making a move with them, provided the reasoning is sound (i.e. if you think you are trading from depth, you actually have depth, or if you think you are satisfying a need, you actually are satisfying that need, or if you think you can contend, you actually do contend).

 

The Royals appear to have some sound reasons here (they actually got a good pitcher, and had a good team overall).  Bill Smith was aggressive too but generally didn't have sound reasoning behind his most high-profile deals.  TR has generally resisted these kind of moves altogether.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Minor nit: did anyone ever see Myers as a legit CF?  I guess he played it some in the minors but I don't recall anyone thought he'd play it regularly in MLB.

I always thought of him as a corner guy. Turns out, so did a few other people:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/13/3081952/prospect-of-the-day-wil-myers-of-kansas-city-royals-scouting-report

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/making-the-comparison-wil-myers1/

 

I think Myers profiles better in the long run as a corner guy, but as Rob Neyer pointed out a few days ago, he's currently blocked by Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon.

 

So what does Myers’ positional future hold? Based on the opinions of most scouts, Myers could handle center for a few years before shifting over to right, so that’s what were going to go with.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement even from the people who thought he *could* play center.

[Steven Buhr]

One thing I want to mention about the Royals season besides from the obvious...........look how healthy they have been.  All 9 of their regular starting lineup played in 130 or more games, their 4 regular starting pitchers all started 30+ times (The 5th spot was Chen to start the season, 7 starts, and replaced by Duffy, 25 starts) and their core 5 guys in the pen all appeared in 60+ games.  

 

It's a huge advantage to have basically your entire roster healthy all season and not have any lingering injury to any core part of your team.  

I do think that almost every discussion of the Royals' success this season ignores, or at least skirts, this factor. It is incredible the way they've avoided significant injury and when you consider how close they came to not even qualifying for a wild card spot, it's obvious that even just having "good" luck, rather than "incredibly good" luck, would have left them at home watching the postseason and everyone would be having a far different discussion.

 

I can certainly look back to a few seasons where it would have been nice to have similar health in the Twins clubhouse.