Article: Postseason Review: Danny Santana

[stringer bell]

In 2014, I saw Danny Santana play in a lot of games in spring training. I was impressed with his swing and his speed, but thought that he was a long way from helping the Twins in 2014. But, Santana showed the baseball world that he was ready when he was recalled in early May.He hit early and continued to hit throughout the season. Danny finished with a .319 batting average and an OPS of .824, both of which would have led the team easily if he had had enough plate appearances. Danny made the All-Rookie team and is a cinch to be the Twins Rookie of the Year for 2014.

 

Santana assumed the leadoff spot in the order at midseason and thrived there. He hit over .300 and stole 19 bases as the leadoff man. Santana scored 70 runs in just over 100 games and had 41 extra-base hits in 430 plate appearances. Danny's BABIP was .405, a very high number and it was an astounding .443 as a right- handed hitter.

 

Beyond his offensive contributions, Santana saved the Twins by playing center field. Danny started 62 games there after playing center only a handful of games in the low minors. His defense wasn't good at the start, but he improved and was adequate by the conclusion of the season.

 

Two questions loom over Danny Santana for 2015 and beyond: 1) Can he sustain his outstanding offensive performance? and 2) What will his defensive position be?

 

First, it is hard to believe that Santana will continue to hit .319 next year and beyond. He's got great speed, a nice swing and unflappable attitude, but that BABIP is pretty close to otherworldly, especially from the right side. I expect the major regression will come on his right-handed hitting because his K percentage is much higher (32% vs. 19% as a LH hitter). Also, I think Danny has to learn to be a bit more selective at the plate. He chased a lot of pitches out of the zone making for short or defensive at-bats. Adding to his walk percentage would be a good idea, as well (only 4.4% in 2014).

 

Where Santana should play going forward has been a top topic on Twins Daily. The team got solid production from last year's de facto starting shortstop, Eduardo Escobar, and did not get anything close to solid production in center field from anyone else on the current roster. Santana was a shortstop playing center field in 2014. He could be more than that if the team decides he is needed in the outfield. However, he has the arm and range to be an outstanding defensive shortstop. It is a quandary that the next manager will have to deal with. Any solution will be controversial. The hope is the team picks a position for Danny and leaves him there, at least for 2015.

 

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[tobi0040]

I completely agree about putting him somewhere defensively.  I hope that a new manager takes a look at him and gives him a shot at SS. 

 

He could be a real asset to this team at SS, even if his offensive number fall from .319 to .280-.290.

[Mike Sixel]

I want him on the field until (hopefully never) he proves it was all luck this year. I have no idea where he should play, however.

 

IF they want him at SS long term, he should be there, because they aren't winning any playoff games next year......If they want Escobar at SS, I'd put Santana in LF full time. His long term position is NOT CF, so put him in SS or LF. 

 

Do what is best for the long term.

[USAFChief]

I'd like to see Santana at SS, Eddie as the futility infielder, at which point I would hope two spots on the next good Twins team are filled.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll be the naysayer here in that I think he needs to go to Rochester.  I like Santana, and to be clear I think he's earned a spot, but his long term value is at SS and from what I understand, he's not ready there.  Add to it that I think his numbers say he's going to be in for a rude awakening in 2015. I like the idea of him spending time in AAA working on his game at SS and letting Escobar swim as the starter in 2015.  If they both work, you trade Escobar and let the high upside guy have the job. 

 

that being said, I want a real CF in the OF, even if on a one year contract.

[Brandon]

I'll be the naysayer here in that I think he needs to go to Rochester.  I like Santana, and to be clear I think he's earned a spot, but his long term value is at SS and from what I understand, he's not ready there.  Add to it that I think his numbers say he's going to be in for a rude awakening in 2015. I like the idea of him spending time in AAA working on his game at SS and letting Escobar swim as the starter in 2015.  If they both work, you trade Escobar and let the high upside guy have the job. 

 

that being said, I want a real CF in the OF, even if on a one year contract.

He's their best hitter right now so that's not going to happen. 

 

 think his long term position will be in the OF especially If Escobar is adequate at SS.

[Physics Guy]

I don't understand why people continue to express skepticism of Santana's ability to play SS.  I saw nothing in the games I watched that tell me he can't play SS.  He has the speed to have good range and has a stronger arm than Escobar.  He's not as polished as Eddie and Escobar may be the steadier player, but Santana has a higher upside defensively than Escobar, IMHO.  If the Twins decide they need him in the OF next year for the short term, I can live with it, but eventually needs to be at SS.  I want my middle of the diamond defense to be Santana, Dozier and Buxton by 2016.

[stringer bell]

I didn't include it in the write-up but my opinion of Santana's defense at short during Spring Training was that he was not ready, bordering on awful. He dropped balls, booted balls, and made several poor throws. He didn't look good going in and struggled on the double play pivot. No, his defense was subpar, to be kind.

 

His defense at short looked okay during the season. Maybe he had made progress to "adequate" already, but it will take a bit more time to convince me. The one sure thing is that the shortstop position looks far better than it did a year ago.

Edited October 14, 2014 by stringer bell

[tobi0040]

I didn't include it in the write-up but my opinion of Santana's defense at short was that he was not ready, bordering on awful. He dropped balls, booted balls, and made several poor throws. He didn't look good going in and struggled on the double play pivot. No, his defense was subpar, to be kind.

 

His defense at short looked okay during the season. Maybe he had made progress to "adequate" already, but it will take a bit more time to convince me. The one sure thing is that the shortstop position looks far better than it did a year ago.

 

If your opinion about Santana's defense is valid (I have no idea because I haven't seen him enough at SS), then I put the 2014 CF debacle on Terry Ryan, not Gardy.   Unless of course Terry has also concluded he will never be a short stop.  In which case, $#^&.

[stringer bell]

Santana certainly has the tools to be a decent or better SS. He was so raw in ST, I thought he was a long way off defensively. There weren't any red flags, to me, from his play at short with the Twins, but I would have to put his defense as "unproven" at best.

[tobi0040]

Santana certainly has the tools to be a decent or better SS. He was so raw in ST, I thought he was a long way off defensively. There weren't any red flags, to me, from his play at short with the Twins, but I would have to put his defense as "unproven" at best.

 

It seems to me Gardy would play a good defensive SS that hit .250 (all singles) over a guy that was OK to bad defensively that would hit .300 with some pop.

 

Let's say the .300 guy is Santana and both players get 600 AB.   The .300 hitter will get 30 more hits and 10-12 of those are probably extra base hits (on top of more doubles and HR overall).

 

It seems unlikely to me that the improved defense from the .250 hitter would not make up for that difference, say 50 more total bases. 

[Physics Guy]

It seems to me Gardy would play a good defensive SS that hit .250 (all singles) over a guy that was OK to bad defensively that would hit .300 with some pop.

 

Let's say the .300 guy is Santana and both players get 600 AB.   The .300 hitter will get 30 more hits and 10-12 of those are probably extra base hits (on top of more doubles and HR overall).

 

It seems unlikely to me that the improved defense from the .250 hitter would not make up for that difference, say 50 more total bases. 

The big issue is that we have another SS who can hit better than .250 and has some pop.  It's not a bad problem for the Twins, but I don't think it necessarily is good for Santana.

[tobi0040]

The big issue is that we have another SS who can hit better than .250 and has some pop.  It's not a bad problem for the Twins, but I don't think it necessarily is good for Santana.

 

I don't know that this has been settled.  Escobar, even with the year he had has a career .255 average with a .666 OPS.  His BABIP this year was .336 as well versus a career .313.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know that this has been settled.  Escobar, even with the year he had has a career .255 average with a .666 OPS.  His BABIP this year was .336 as well versus a career .313.

 

Counting on Escobar at SS next year feels like a catastrophe waiting to happen ala 2014 CF.

[stringer bell]

 

I don't know that this has been settled.  Escobar, even with the year he had has a career .255 average with a .666 OPS.  His BABIP this year was .336 as well versus a career .313.

Santana's BABIP was .405. Which would be easier to sustain? I think I know, but I would like to be convinced that the other is possible. Edited October 14, 2014 by stringer bell

[tobi0040]

 

Santan's BABIP was .405. Which would be easier to sustain? I think I know, but I would like to be convinced that the other is possible.

 

I never said Santana will be a career .319 hitter, in contention for the batting crown year in and year out.  But the difference between Santana's career .319 average and Escobar's .255 is quite large.  As well as perceived upside. 

[Thegrin]

A solid fielding SS is so very important to the pitching staff.  A solid fielding SS is less important to the pitching staff.  Let Escobar continue to play SS and Santana to play CF and they should both be solid at their positions next year.

[Physics Guy]

A solid fielding SS is so very important to the pitching staff.  A solid fielding SS is less important to the pitching staff. 

Please clarify.  I don't think you typed what you meant. 

[stringer bell]

I never said Santana will be a career .319 hitter, in contention for the batting crown year in and year out.  But the difference between Santana's career .319 average and Escobar's .255 is quite large.  As well as perceived upside.

I think last season is a better apples-to-apples comparison. Both had over 400 PAs and played pretty much regularly. Including Escobar's stats from partial seasons when he was a bench player aren't really a fair comparison. Still Santana is younger (about a year and a half) and had the superior offensive season. Santana's BABIP was .405 while Esco went for .326.

[tobi0040]

I think last season is a better apples-to-apples comparison. Both had over 400 PAs and played pretty much regularly. Including Escobar's stats from partial seasons when he was a bench player aren't really a fair comparison. Still Santana is younger (about a year and a half) and had the superior offensive season. Santana's BABIP was .405 while Esco went for .326.

Escobar has averaged about 3 plate appearances a game in every season. So when he has been up he sees somewhat regular action. I just can't look at these 440 at bats and say this is the guy and the other 350 can be dismissed.

[stringer bell]

Escobar has averaged about 3 plate appearances a game in every season. So when he has been up he sees somewhat regular action. I just can't look at these 440 at bats and say this is the guy and the other 350 can be dismissed.

Agree to disagree. 332 PAs in 1.7 years means that Esco was previously a guy who got to play a game here and there but never got consistent at-bats. By my count Escobar started 73 games out of a possible 273, so about a start every four games. Not exactly a formula for good offensive performance. He got his chance to perform and he thrived. Santana got a chance to perform on the big stage and he thrived more.

[tobi0040]

Agree to disagree. 332 PAs in 1.7 years means that Esco was previously a guy who got to play a game here and there but never got consistent at-bats. By my count Escobar started 73 games out of a possible 273, so about a start every four games. Not exactly a formula for good offensive performance. He got his chance to perform and he thrived. Santana got a chance to perform on the big stage and he thrived more.

Your comment suggested he was sitting on the bench. He was up here getting regular at bats or grtting them in the minors

[stringer bell]

Your comment suggested he was sitting on the bench. He was up here getting regular at bats or grtting them in the minors

That is correct. Going into this year, Escobar had 1.128 years of service over two years plus September of 2011. I calculated that to be 273 games, it actually is 277. He started 73 games in those 277 games that he was active, less than 27% of the games he could start. Yes, he sat on the bench a bunch while accumulating his 1.128 years of service. Many, including me, thought Escobar's only role was utility infielder, despite some indications that he is a better hitter than assumed. For this year, at least, he showed he was a pretty good hitter.

[tobi0040]

That is correct. Going into this year, Escobar had 1.128 years of service over two years plus September of 2011. I calculated that to be 273 games, it actually is 277. He started 73 games in those 277 games that he was active, less than 27% of the games he could start. Yes, he sat on the bench a bunch while accumulating his 1.128 years of service. Many, including me, thought Escobar's only role was utility infielder, despite some indications that he is a better hitter than assumed. For this year, at least, he showed he was a pretty good hitter.

 

His AB per year since 2011 combined between the minors and majors are 543, 282 (guessing he was hurt), 353, and 433.   His reps this year were not much different than 2011 and 2013. 

 

Going back the difference of opinion, I don't think Escobar is at a point that we can count on him at SS, nor should he be preventing Santana from getting reps there, IMO.

[stringer bell]

 

His AB per year since 2011 combined between the minors and majors are 543, 282 (guessing he was hurt), 353, and 433.   His reps this year were not much different than 2011 and 2013. 

 

Going back the difference of opinion, I don't think Escobar is at a point that we can count on him at SS, nor should he be preventing Santana from getting reps there, IMO.

2011--minor leagues with Sept callup. 2012--bench for thw Whities, traded for Liriano, mostly bench for the Twins 2013--bench/utility for the Twins, regular play for the Red Wings when sent down. No injuries, he had just played sporadically when in the majors until 2014. The 73 starts in 277 games is correct.

[tobi0040]

 

2011--minor leagues with Sept callup. 2012--bench for thw Whities, traded for Liriano, mostly bench for the Twins 2013--bench/utility for the Twins, regular play for the Red Wings when sent down. No injuries, he had just played sporadically when in the majors until 2014. The 73 starts in 277 games is correct.

 

I am not arguing that he did not play sporadically at the MLB level.  Your initial argument was dismissive of his first 350 MLB at bats because he was a part time or bench player.  My point was that while his MLB at bats were sporadic, he was seeing somewhat regular at bats in those years between the minors and big league clubs....therefore it was not like he was sitting on the bench for a week and playing once and rusty.  He was seeing live pitches, etc. and I am not dismissive of almost half of his stats for that reason.

[h2oface]

Santana should  be at SS. Period. It is folly to adjust your team to second best options. That is a ticket to the cellar door once more.

[Thegrin]

Why do so many think Santana deserves to play SS?  Everything leading up to 2014 indicated that Santana was an unfinished prospect at SS.  Escobar did play sporadically and learned.  He played a steady SS in 14 and if Santana the hitter had not emerged, we would be overjoyed with Escobar's play and we'd be looking forward to further improvement in 15. 

 

Santana the hitter played a steadily improving CF and, barring injuries, he could be a top caliber CF by the end of 15.  He still has to overcome the "sophomore jinx", but his speed and bunting skills, should prevent Santana from falling into prolonged slumps.