So....May...what now?

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think fixing the defense is that easy......you aren't getting rid of Arcia before next year. That leaves CF, LF, SS and 1B and C. You aren't changing 1B and C.....so that leave LF and CF.

 

The Twins are not signing a big time CF, so that leaves LF, imo. I guess you could just put Hicks or Shaefer out there, but that is not fixing 20 runs or 30 runs......not in one OF spot.

 

This is the spot they are in. They some guys they already have penciled in that are not all around 5 tool players......

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think fixing the defense is that easy......you aren't getting rid of Arcia before next year. That leaves CF, LF, SS and 1B and C. You aren't changing 1B and C.....so that leave LF and CF.

 

The Twins are not signing a big time CF, so that leaves LF, imo. I guess you could just put Hicks or Shaefer out there, but that is not fixing 20 runs or 30 runs......not in one OF spot.

 

This is the spot they are in. They some guys they already have penciled in that are not all around 5 tool players......

I think one of the most interesting ideas this offseason is shopping Vargas or Arcia. Dangle them and see what offers you get in return.

 

Given the offensive upside of each and the fact that they don't really fit well with the coming tide of MiLB players, Ryan might be able to get a piece that works a lot better in the long-term.

[tobi0040]

I definitely understand your point. My personal opinion is that if Nolasco is just average, 2015's rotation probably isn't too bad.

 

Of course, guys always get injured but that's why it's nice to have a guy like Pelfrey around... I'm not keen on starting the season with future building blocks in the minors, though.

 

Another reason why it would have been nice to see Meyer in Minnesota on August 1st. We'd have more information as to what is needed in 2015.

 

I agree with everything you said except "it is nice to have Pelfrey around" . 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree with everything you said except "it is nice to have Pelfrey around" . 

Hah, fair enough. I still think he's a decent bullpen arm if he can get back to the 92-93mph range.

[nicksaviking]

As I mentioned in an earlier comment on this thread, ERA - FIP (which should show the effects of fielding on runs scored) for Twins this year is .64. That's more than 100 extra runs given up in a season. So I do think 50 runs is conservative.

 

I would think then we need to re-evaluate FIP stats.  The Twins have given up 664 runs this year, this hypothesis would then dictate that the Twins outfielders were directly responsilbe for for every 6.64th run scored.  That just doesn't seem logical. 

[Siehbiscuit]

The FIP vs ERA difference has a lot to do with the defense but also a lot of 'pitch to contact'-type of pitchers. How does May's numbers differ? He strikes a ton of guys out, but he's also pitched like crap! When all of a sudden May or Nolasco are pitching brilliantly we congratulate the defense. Last night, Nolasco was great. Perkins comes in and the defense didn't all of a sudden get bad. He pitched poorly and got hit all over the place. This game will always be about pitching.

 

I'd take Nelson Cruz, Arcia and even Santana or a bad CF like Matt Kemp as my everyday OF if I could have Kershaw. Bad defense COMBINED with bad pitching is what we have had for at least 4 years.

 

An OF alignment of Alex Gordon, Carlos Gomez and ??? Adam Jones or Jayson Heyward wouldn't change the fact that our pitchers still get hit hard. Some runs would be saved, but not enough to change the win column significantly. Great pitching can.

[tobi0040]

The FIP vs ERA difference has a lot to do with the defense but also a lot of 'pitch to contact'-type of pitchers. How does May's numbers differ? He strikes a ton of guys out, but he's also pitched like crap! When all of a sudden May or Nolasco are pitching brilliantly we congratulate the defense. Last night, Nolasco was great. Perkins comes in and the defense didn't all of a sudden get bad. He pitched poorly and got hit all over the place. This game will always be about pitching.

 

I'd take Nelson Cruz, Arcia and even Santana or a bad CF like Matt Kemp as my everyday OF if I could have Kershaw. Bad defense COMBINED with bad pitching is what we have had for at least 4 years.

 

An OF alignment of Alex Gordon, Carlos Gomez and ??? Adam Jones or Jayson Heyward wouldn't change the fact that our pitchers still get hit hard. Some runs would be saved, but not enough to change the win column significantly. Great pitching can.

 

It would be interesting to see the top 10 "worst" defenses and see how they compare with the top 10 worst in team ERA.  I am guessing you see some of the same teams on there, for the reasons you and others have outlined.  Harder hit balls = "bad" defense

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't understand the notion that it has to be one or the other. It's entirely possible - scratch that, it's likely - that both bad pitching and bad defense have contributed to the overall line of the pitching staff.

 

The problem is that with the pitching staff, the rotation is virtually locked in for 2015 already unless you're willing to punt on giving the Twins' best pitching prospect a shot at MLB, something most would argue he earned back in June of this year.

 

Gibson has tailed off this season. His trade value is meh. Hughes is too good to trade. Nolasco has zero value right now. May needs innings. Meyer needs innings. Who gets bumped?

 

Meanwhile, the Twins have no legitimate left fielder. It seems to me the easiest choice is to explore that arena and see if you can find someone to patch that hole in 2015 and not embarrass himself in the field, knowing that Hicks or Buxton will take center field in the near future.

[USAFChief]

I don't understand the notion that it has to be one or the other. It's entirely possible - scratch that, it's likely - that both bad pitching and bad defense have contributed to the overall line of the pitching staff.

 

The problem is that with the pitching staff, the rotation is virtually locked in for 2015 already unless you're willing to punt on giving the Twins' best pitching prospect a shot at MLB, something most would argue he earned back in June of this year.

 

Gibson has tailed off this season. His trade value is meh. Hughes is too good to trade. Nolasco has zero value right now. May needs innings. Meyer needs innings. Who gets bumped?

 

Meanwhile, the Twins have no legitimate left fielder. It seems to me the easiest choice is to explore that arena and see if you can find someone to patch that hole in 2015 and not embarrass himself in the field, knowing that Hicks or Buxton will take center field in the near future.

Right back atcha...it doesn't have to be one or the other. Improve the rotation, and find a LFer.

[jharaldson]

It would be interesting to see the top 10 "worst" defenses and see how they compare with the top 10 worst in team ERA.  I am guessing you see some of the same teams on there, for the reasons you and others have outlined.  Harder hit balls = "bad" defense

 

I did a little fun with Excel and found that of the bottom 10 defense you have many of the bottom ERA's as well but not always.  The Indians are the 29th ranked defense in fangraphs but have the 16th ranked ERA.  Similarilly the Red Sox are the 3rd ranked defense and have the 22nd ranked ERA.  Another interesting one is that the Dodgers have the 19th ranked defense but the 5th ranked ERA.  

 

DEF RANK Team ERA RANK

1 Royals 10

2 Orioles 7

3 Red Sox 22

4 Reds 15

5 Angels 13

6 Braves 6

7 Cardinals 12

8 Athletics 3

9 Yankees 17

10 Mariners 1

11 Brewers 18

12 Rays 8

13 Nationals 2

14 Padres 4

15 Cubs 21

16 Mets 11

17 Diamondbacks 25

18 Giants 9

19 Dodgers 5

20 Rockies 30

21 Marlins 20

22 Rangers 29

23 Blue Jays 24

24 Phillies 19

25 Pirates 14

26 Twins 28

27 Tigers 23

28 White Sox 27

29 Indians 16

30 Astros 26

[tobi0040]

Right back atcha...it doesn't have to be one or the other. Improve the rotation, and find a LFer.

 

I am on board for a better LF and better pitcher.  I just wonder if a correlation exists between bad pitching and bad fielding.  I suspect fewer hard hit balls when Clayton Kershaw is pitching, versus Yohan Pino/Pelfrey, etc.

 

I also think our rotation is not talented enough right now to pencil the same guys in and hope two young players come up and pitch well.  The four guys have pitched 538 innings this year and we are 28th in starting ERA.

 

Meyer has had a scare two years in a row, this was Mays first really good year in a few.  Nolasco was shut down for a long stretch.  It would not hurt, from an insurance perspective and talent perspective to add one arm. especially if he is better than the other five.

[tobi0040]

I did a little fun with Excel and found that of the bottom 10 defense you have many of the bottom ERA's as well but not always.  The Indians are the 29th ranked defense in fangraphs but have the 16th ranked ERA.  Similarilly the Red Sox are the 3rd ranked defense and have the 22nd ranked ERA.  Another interesting one is that the Dodgers have the 19th ranked defense but the 5th ranked ERA.  

 

DEF RANK Team ERA RANK

1 Royals 10

2 Orioles 7

3 Red Sox 22

4 Reds 15

5 Angels 13

6 Braves 6

7 Cardinals 12

8 Athletics 3

9 Yankees 17

10 Mariners 1

11 Brewers 18

12 Rays 8

13 Nationals 2

14 Padres 4

15 Cubs 21

16 Mets 11

17 Diamondbacks 25

18 Giants 9

19 Dodgers 5

20 Rockies 30

21 Marlins 20

22 Rangers 29

23 Blue Jays 24

24 Phillies 19

25 Pirates 14

26 Twins 28

27 Tigers 23

28 White Sox 27

29 Indians 16

30 Astros 26

 

Thank you for pulling this together.

 

Of the bottom 10 defenses, they average to the 22.6 best ERA.

 

Of the top 10 defenses, they average to the 10.6 best ERA.

 

Of the bottom 10 defenses, 6 are also 20-30 in ERA. Zero are in the top 10.

 

Of the top 10 defenses, 5 are also top 10 ERA.  One is between 20-30.

 

I see a relationship.  It probably works both ways to an extent.....but these cannot be viewed as separate things.

 

Example, better pitching = fewer well hit balls, which means "better" defense.   Better fielding equals lower runs, which means "better" pitching.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Right back atcha...it doesn't have to be one or the other. Improve the rotation, and find a LFer.

Except that I outlined why it will be hard to pick up a starting pitcher without punting on Meyer for another half season.

 

Either this team is rebuilding or it's not. If you don't let guys like Meyer and May throw MLB innings, they'll never be MLB pitchers.

 

Again:

 

 

 

Gibson has tailed off this season. His trade value is meh. Hughes is too good to trade. Nolasco has zero value right now. May needs innings. Meyer needs innings. Who gets bumped?

 

Nobody seems to be answering this pretty obvious question.

[USAFChief]

Except that I outlined why it will be hard to pick up a starting pitcher without punting on Meyer for another half season.

 

Either this team is rebuilding or it's not. If you don't let guys like Meyer and May throw MLB innings, they'll never be MLB pitchers.

 

Again:

 

 

 

Nobody seems to be answering this pretty obvious question.

I doubt there's one chance in ten Meyer starts in the rotation out of spring training next year no matter if the Twins add zero starters.

 

As for your question, only one of the five names in your list is there due to merit...it seems to me the better question is which of the other four shouldn't get bumped?

[Willihammer]

 

Gibson has tailed off this season. His trade value is meh. Hughes is too good to trade. Nolasco has zero value right now. May needs innings. Meyer needs innings. Who gets bumped?

Nobody seems to be answering this pretty obvious question.

 

I gave it a shot in an earlier post. Basically, if the Twins sign a starting pitcher (or 2) they can bump everyone in the rotation down a peg and fill a hole (or 2) in the bullpen while they're at it.

 

With respect to Meyer and May -its been sited a million times before but I'll repeat it here - look at the Cardinals. For years they've used the bullpen as a step between AAA and the starting rotation and obviously have had a lot of success building strong pitching staffs top to bottom.

 

When you look at the injury history of those 5 pitchers, its definitely possible, likely even, that they'll log some time on the DL and whoever got bumped will (assuming he's healthy) get his shot then.

 

Nolasco - mysterious elbow issues at least twice in his career (that we know about)

Gibson - TJ elbow

Hughes - back issues

Meyer - shoulder issues last two seasons and a pretty damn ominous end to 2014 including steep loss in velocity

 

Only May has been healthy, but if you look closely he too showed a dip in velocity that he only recovered in his last start.

[bird]

If Dozier only brings back Kemp or Ethier, I'll start cheering for the Brewers.

 

I wouldn't trade Dozier for both Kemp and Ethier.

Funny to think that a year or so ago you would have been laughed off the site for saying such things. Most people would have traded Dozier and Escobar in a package to acquire Stephen Drew, just another of the many examples of how strange and fickle it all is.

[James Richter]

It was pointed out over the weekend that Hughes' 11K performance was the first time since Liriano was traded in 2012 that a Twins' starter had reached double-digit strikeouts. That's well over 300 games. Then May turned the trick in career start #7. That should tell you a lot about his potential relative to what the Twins have been running out there the last couple of years. Give him a shot!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I get what you mean to an extent.  I think the Twins really blew it this year and would typically agree.....but when you are 28th overall in starter ERA and have been bottom 3 for 3+ years....signing one pitcher that is better than the five you have and making the other five compete is not a bad thing, IMO.  

 

In reality, one of the five will likely get hurt by mid-April, if not in camp anyway.  One may be terrible next year.  Best case, they are all lights out and you move May to the pen where he can be a shut down guy.

Given the quality relievers coming up from the system, I really think the Twins are doing May and themselves a disservice if they were to move May to the pen. He's pitched, what, 7 starts? 7 starts is not enough of a sample size to judge a player by... especially a high ceiling player. May has gotten Ks everywhere he's went. This season, he dropped his walk rate down to very good levels and saw the other peripherals improve with it. I'd say his floor as a starter right now is going to be a 3 once he gets himself established, and he has a higher ceiling than that. But to get that, you have to let him pitch through his growing pains. Signing another FA starter to a contract you won't be able to trade or waive creates another Nolasco type situation. I'm not sure we want that.

[jokin]

Funny to think that a year or so ago you would have been laughed off the site for saying such things. Most people would have traded Dozier and Escobar in a package to acquire Stephen Drew, just another of the many examples of how strange and fickle it all is.

 

I don't think there's a shred of evidence for this claim.  "Most people", if they had any interest in Drew at all, was most certainly not obtaining via trade, but as a short-term FA acquisition at under-market-value due to his individual contract status, while we waited to see which SS prospect emerged to take the spot long-term.

[jokin]

I think one of the most interesting ideas this offseason is shopping Vargas..... Dangle (him) and see what offers you get in return.

 

Given the offensive upside... and the fact that (he doesn't) really fit well with the coming tide of MiLB players, Ryan might be able to get a piece that works a lot better in the long-term.

 

"Offensive upside?"  Great, give TR a chance to get rid of Big Papi twice in the same century....

 

How would a Big Papi II not, potentially, fit into a DH/1B role in the coming tide of MiLB players?

[Brock Beauchamp]

"Offensive upside?" Great, give TR a chance to get rid of Big Papi twice in the same century....

 

How would a Big Papi II not, potentially, fit into a DH/1B role in the coming tide of MiLB players?

That should read "dangle Vargas or Arcia". There is definitely room for one of them. Both? I'm not so sure.

[tobi0040]

I gave it a shot in an earlier post. Basically, if the Twins sign a starting pitcher (or 2) they can bump everyone in the rotation down a peg and fill a hole (or 2) in the bullpen while they're at it.With respect to Meyer and May -its been sited a million times before but I'll repeat it here - look at the Cardinals. For years they've used the bullpen as a step between AAA and the starting rotation and obviously have had a lot of success building strong pitching staffs top to bottom.When you look at the injury history of those 5 pitchers, its definitely possible, likely even, that they'll log some time on the DL and whoever got bumped will (assuming he's healthy) get his shot then.Nolasco - mysterious elbow issues at least twice in his career (that we know about)Gibson - TJ elbowHughes - back issuesMeyer - shoulder issues last two seasons and a pretty damn ominous end to 2014 including steep loss in velocityOnly May has been healthy, but if you look closely he too showed a dip in velocity that he only recovered in his last start.

 

 

Nice work. The all five spots are taken assumes the following:

 

They don't start meyer in aaa

 

None if the five are hurt (risks have been outlined)

 

None of the five pitch poorly (like nolasco this whole year)

 

Even if the stars and moon align, it is not the end of the world to have a competition and depth that assures pelfrey does not see target field

[nicksaviking]

I also doubt we see Meyer before May at the earliest, likely late June to avoid Super 2 status.

 

I still like the idea of keeping a spot open for him, but competition is good for the rotation as there likely will be injuries and/or poor performances.  Still, I don't like many of the free agents next year as the good ones look like they will be commanding many more years than I'd like. 

 

I'd probably be more interested in a lotto ticket type on a short term deal; a Brett Anderson, Chad Billingsley, Justin Masterson or Brandon Morrow.  Or if a guy like Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavey or Edinson Volquez can only snag a 2 or 3 year deal due to age or past reputation concerns.

 

Of course this all comes with the understanding that a new pitching coach is part of the deal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think there's a shred of evidence for this claim.  "Most people", if they had any interest in Drew at all, was most certainly not obtaining via trade, but as a short-term FA acquisition at under-market-value due to his individual contract status, while we waited to see which SS prospect emerged to take the spot long-term.

 

I think (if memory serves me right) that 'most people' (and I use that term loosely) were big believers in giving up our second rounder to sign Drew this offseason. The question at hand, from my perspective is this: Do you trade a 3-4 year deal of Steven drew at a high 7 or 8 figure salary for Nick Burdi?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Even if the stars and moon align, it is not the end of the world to have a competition and depth that assures pelfrey does not see target field

It's more than Pelfrey, though... What about Milone? Johnson?

 

There will be competition for rotation spots no matter what happens. Unless the Twins are going after a massive upgrade in the rotation - and they almost surely aren't in the market for a Shields-type pitcher - I don't see a lot of gain for the money spent. The future of this team lies with Meyer and Berrios. The faster the front office gets them to Minnesota, the better.

 

It's not only about Meyer. Berrios, barring catastrophe, is going to start 2015 in Rochester. The Twins made that pretty apparent with his late-season promotion to AAA.

 

Let the kids play, I say. If I have to hold my nose in April and May while Pelrey/Milone stink up the joint because it means that Meyer and Berrios get 15+ starts in Minnesota next season, I can certainly live with that.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll amend Brock's point a bit.....either play the young guys, or pay for elite guys. But stop going for mediocre guys with no upside. They still are not committed to the rebuild, see Pinto on the bench and Santana in the OF as evidence. Their inability to commit to their plan is a big part of the issue right now. See also May not coming up sooner, and Meyer not up at all. They just can't seem to go all in on rebuild. Or, if they are in, it is in a new, unique way, that other teams don't try.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll amend Brock's point a bit.....either play the young guys, or pay for elite guys. But stop going for mediocre guys with no upside. They still are not committed to the rebuild, see Pinto on the bench and Santana in the OF as evidence. Their inability to commit to their plan is a big part of the issue right now. See also May not coming up sooner, and Meyer not up at all. They just can't seem to go all in on rebuild. Or, if they are in, it is in a new, unique way, that other teams don't try.

Agreed fully. In past years, I understood their reluctance to go all-in on the rebuild... The pieces simply weren't there to do it.

 

Now we're in a situation where May is in Minnesota, Meyer should be in Minnesota already, and Berrios looks like he's on a fast track for 2015. Buxton, Sano, Rosario, et al aren't terribly far away either.

 

Now is the time to let the kids play because - finally - there are kids actually worth playing.

[Siehbiscuit]

I'll amend Brock's point a bit.....either play the young guys, or pay for elite guys. But stop going for mediocre guys with no upside. They still are not committed to the rebuild, see Pinto on the bench and Santana in the OF as evidence. Their inability to commit to their plan is a big part of the issue right now. See also May not coming up sooner, and Meyer not up at all. They just can't seem to go all in on rebuild. Or, if they are in, it is in a new, unique way, that other teams don't try.

I agree with the play the young guys strategy. Posters continue to say, "Player X would bat in teh 8 hole on a playoff team" or "Player Z wouldn't be in the rotation on a playoff team." These statements fits to nearly our entire team!

 

Pitching:

Nolasco: was banged up and tried to tough it out and was poor. He deserves another shot based on his career not just last year.

Gibson: Should not be untouchable. He had moments, but if a guy like Meyer or May look outstanding in ST give them the ball! The best players need to be pitching.

Hughes: in the rotation. Period.

Milone, Johnson, Pino other AAAA, low-upside types: These are the guys that are organizational filler. Millone has proven somewhat effective at the MLB level, but his ceiling is lower than even Gibson's.

 

I don't necessarily believe that we should move Vargas or Arcia. Vargas has looked great, but he could start in AAA again (I doubt he will). I believe if Arcia develops as a prospect the way we all thought he would, his offensive upside outweighs the defensive low side. Vargas can flat out hit and thats why we have the DH. I don't hear the ChiSox complaining about Frank Thomas' defense back in the day or Abreu's now. Their offense offsets their defense liabilities.

 

Better pitching and the HIGH upside ptching should be pitching. Worst case, throw 'em in the bullpen St. Louis style.

[Willihammer]

With the way this lineup has gelled in the 2nd half, I vote "all in" in 2015.

[tobi0040]

It's more than Pelfrey, though... What about Milone? Johnson?

 

There will be competition for rotation spots no matter what happens. Unless the Twins are going after a massive upgrade in the rotation - and they almost surely aren't in the market for a Shields-type pitcher - I don't see a lot of gain for the money spent. The future of this team lies with Meyer and Berrios. The faster the front office gets them to Minnesota, the better.

 

It's not only about Meyer. Berrios, barring catastrophe, is going to start 2015 in Rochester. The Twins made that pretty apparent with his late-season promotion to AAA.

 

Let the kids play, I say. If I have to hold my nose in April and May while Pelrey/Milone stink up the joint because it means that Meyer and Berrios get 15+ starts in Minnesota next season, I can certainly live with that.

 

I agree you have two paths. Play the kids or sign a top 4 FA.   I think they are likely to take a third path, by adding a low ceiling veteran.