So....May...what now?

[jokin]

That's a possibility but no one will know for sure until he logs a bunch of innings.

 

And that's kind of my point... The Twins can't continue to sign veteran players at the expense of guys coming through the system. Rookies are going to struggle. Some will succeed. Some will fail. You won't know which is which until you let them play.

 

Maybe May's LD% and BABIP remain obnoxiously high. Maybe they won't. It's a mystery until he throws a lot more pitches.

 

This is part of the rebuilding process. The Twins scored big on Hughes. They did the opposite on Nolasco.

 

The answer to that Nolasco failure is not to go out and sign another FA pitcher and take innings away from the Mays, Meyers, and Berrios of the world. If you can move Nolasco (unlikely) and sign someone else, so be it... but don't take playing time from the top prospects in the organization. They're the backbone of your next winning team.

 

We can only go on past evidence and the current observed incremental improvements we are witnessing. I think it's an extreme over-reaction to assume that May's.396 BABIP and 25% LD rate is who May will always be.  If you look at his past four minor league seasons, he's averaged a 15.9% LD rate, and never had a higher single-season LD% than 18.8%, along with a 4-year MiLB BABIP of .313.  People also look past his current 58.6% strand rate, which most assuredly will normalize back towards the AL SP rate of 72.1%, once he corrects his mechanical flaws and reduces his jittery performances when working from the stretch  (He has shown some evidence of improvement in all of these areas in his 3 September starts:

 

LD%:  18.6%

BABIP: .341

LOB%:  71.4% 

[Brock Beauchamp]

We can only go on past evidence and the current observed incremental improvements we are witnessing. I think it's an extreme over-reaction to assume that May's.396 BABIP and 25% LD rate is who May will always be.  If you look at his past four minor league seasons, he's averaged a 15.9% LD rate, and never had a higher single-season LD% than 18.8%, along with a 4-year MiLB BABIP of .313.  People also look past his current 58.6% strand rate, which most assuredly will normalize back towards the AL SP rate of 72.1%, once he corrects his mechanical flaws and reduces his jittery performances when working from the stretch  (He has shown some evidence of improvement in all of these areas in his 3 September starts:

 

LD%:  18.6%

BABIP: .341

LOB%:  71.4% 

Yeah, it's not a matter of whether his BABIP and LD% will remain as high as they are today, it's more a matter of whether they will normalize to an acceptable level or whether they stay so high that his strikeout numbers can't compensate.

 

Those September numbers aren't great but they're progress... and at this point, that's all I care about.

[jokin]

Yeah, it's not a matter of whether his BABIP and LD% will remain as high as they are today, it's more a matter of whether they will normalize to an acceptable level or whether they stay so high that his strikeout numbers can't compensate.

 

Those September numbers aren't great but they're progress... and at this point, that's all I care about.

 

Yep.  And though I'm hopeful that we'll see more progress in his remaining two starts, I don't think the Twins will have seen enough from May for him to be automatically penciled in to one of the 2015 starting spots.  Lest we forget last March, Kyle Gibson was really on the outside, looking in, literally waiting for his ticket to Rochester to be punched, if not for the complete ST collapses of Worley and Diamond.  I would have liked for a more definitive answer on both May and Meyer, one way or another, for 2015, to have been obtained in 2014, with considerably more lengthy ML tryouts. And because they didn't do so, I'm guessing the Twins are working on the assumption that 2016, not 2015, is the earliest they hope to consider themselves potential contenders

[ALessKosherScott]

That's a possibility but no one will know for sure until he logs a bunch of innings.

 

And that's kind of my point... The Twins can't continue to sign veteran players at the expense of guys coming through the system. Rookies are going to struggle. Some will succeed. Some will fail. You won't know which is which until you let them play.

 

Maybe May's LD% and BABIP remain obnoxiously high. Maybe they won't. It's a mystery until he throws a lot more pitches.

 

This is part of the rebuilding process. The Twins scored big on Hughes. They did the opposite on Nolasco.

 

The answer to that Nolasco failure is not to go out and sign another FA pitcher and take innings away from the Mays, Meyers, and Berrios of the world. If you can move Nolasco (unlikely) and sign someone else, so be it... but don't take playing time from the top prospects in the organization. They're the backbone of your next winning team.

 

In Nolasco's defense (and to the question of how good could have Hughes been), you don't go out and spend millions on two of baseball's most extreme flyball pitchers and give them one of the worst outfield defenses in history. Not if you want the results to be good.

 

With May, IMO, he's a major league pitcher. The question is can he reign in his control problems enough to be a starter or will he simply be a really good reliever. His problem with BABIP is simply that he's missing the zone, and that's leading to the double-ended problem of walks and very hittable pitches. It will be interesting to see what happens with him next year.

[Linus]

I'm advocating for adding only pitching that is better than they have now. If we can sign Shields I will worry about the rest later. People are talking like Gibson, May and Meyer are locks. Odds are one of the three is never going to make it and one will just be ok. Given that there is nothing wrong about pursuing a pitcher that none of the three will ever equal

[Brock Beauchamp]

In Nolasco's defense (and to the question of how good could have Hughes been), you don't go out and spend millions on two of baseball's most extreme flyball pitchers and give them one of the worst outfield defenses in history. Not if you want the results to be good.

 

With May, IMO, he's a major league pitcher. The question is can he reign in his control problems enough to be a starter or will he simply be a really good reliever. His problem with BABIP is simply that he's missing the zone, and that's leading to the double-ended problem of walks and very hittable pitches. It will be interesting to see what happens with him next year.

Very true about outfield defense. It's probably a coincidence that Nolasco has returned to being an adequate pitcher once Hicks, Schafer, and Santana all joined the roster but those guys certainly aren't hurting his performances.

 

I don't hate this pitching staff. I think the smartest money the Twins could spend is on an outfielder who won't embarrass himself in either the field or at the plate.

 

Or maybe you trade one of Arcia or Vargas for a more flexible player with less plate potential. There are options, the question is what route Ryan will take this offseason.

[USAFChief]

 

 

This pitching staff could be 50 runs better with an adequate outfield defense behind it. 

Huh?

[bird]

I think May is doing more or less as expected.  I figured he'd get hit around a bit and have some control issues early - although I didn't guess it would be that bad.  But the Twins keep letting him go back out and he's certainly adjusting.  (It also didn't help that his first starts were against playoff teams fighting for position).  He definitely has some swing and miss stuff when he's on.

 

I always thought a good comp for him was Aaron Harang.  Both came up in the age 24 seasons and had some issue with walks but flashed potential.  Both have some strike out ability but both are probably more innings eaters than front line guys - but can be very valuable.  

Yeah, I agree with this. We have to keep expectations in check. Remember, May was labeled by most evaluators as at best an innings-eating 3/4 starter and at worst a low-leverage reliever with control issues. Gibson was viewed at best as a 3/4 starter post Tommy John. If we end up with anything more than that from those two, we'll probably have to send apology notes to Rick Anderson.

 

Doc, I still contend Ryan should pursue, via trade or FA, a 2/3 starter that I describe as meeting or exceeding the Hughes Standard (career #'s). Meyer isn't going to be a 1/2 starter out of the blocks, if ever.  If Ryan give me a 2/3 starter for Christmas, I'll be OK with Hughes as my other 2/3 starter, Gibson as a 3/4, Meyer as a 3/4 in 2015 perhaps, Nolasco as a 4/5, and May as a 5/6. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Huh?

That's a conservative estimate. Every metric you can find out there says this defense is terrible, including the eye test.

 

Though obviously Hicks and Schafer change that dynamic quite a bit.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd still argue that May can be anywhere between a 1 and a 3 starter. He pitched like an ace in Rochester this season. However, he's obviously got some learning to do. I dont' think this is normalization as much as it is that he will need to adjust. I'm not terribly worried about him going forward... he's been getting better with each start, and I suspect he's going to do something similar to Gibson last spring and outperform Millone and Pelfrey for that spot.

[jokin]

I'd still argue that May can be anywhere between a 1 and a 3 starter. He pitched like an ace in Rochester this season. However, he's obviously got some learning to do. I dont' think this is normalization as much as it is that he will need to adjust. I'm not terribly worried about him going forward... he's been getting better with each start, and I suspect he's going to do something similar to Gibson last spring and outperform Millone and Pelfrey for that spot.

 

A #1 seems very optimistic.  I'd be extremely pleased if he ends up as a solid 3-4-level starter on a playoff caliber team.  If he somehow ends up as a 2-level guy, this team is going to be really good in about 3 years with clearly higher level talent soon available.  I'd still hope that the Twins make a serious effort to have James Shields here to be the staff leader on a 4 year deal,  May and Meyer, especially, would really benefit from Shields and Hughes fronting the rotation and showing them the way it's done.

[jokin]

That's a conservative estimate. Every metric you can find out there says this defense is terrible, including the eye test.

 

Though obviously Hicks and Schafer change that dynamic quite a bit.

 

 

Yep, and my study posted in Nick's article on defense confirms that this year's Team SP stats are better than 2013 in every major category.  The ERA-FIP differential was by far the highest in the league.  The OF defense has been a well-documented disaster for most of the year, and the Twins won't significantly improve the defensive dynamic until Buxton is finally ready.  Schafer and Hicks are fine to a point, but the team only needs one of them as a 4th OFer.  To get a lot better overall in 2015, the club still needs to hire a LFer somewhere in-between the defensive chasm represented by Josh Willingham and Alex Gordon who can hit a little bit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A #1 seems very optimistic.  I'd be extremely pleased if he ends up as a solid 3-4-level starter on a playoff caliber team.  If he somehow ends up as a 2-level guy, this team is going to be really good in about 3 years with clearly higher level talent soon available.  I'd still hope that the Twins make a serious effort to have James Shields here to be the staff leader on a 4 year deal,  May and Meyer, especially, would really benefit from Shields and Hughes fronting the rotation and showing them the way it's done.

I agree. I think May has a ceiling not terribly different from Gibson, though he gets there very differently.

 

A ceiling of a fringe #2 with a likely outcome of a fringe #3 or good #4.

[gunnarthor]

I'd still argue that May can be anywhere between a 1 and a 3 starter. He pitched like an ace in Rochester this season. However, he's obviously got some learning to do. I dont' think this is normalization as much as it is that he will need to adjust. I'm not terribly worried about him going forward... he's been getting better with each start, and I suspect he's going to do something similar to Gibson last spring and outperform Millone and Pelfrey for that spot.

I think most of us, when we are speaking of the type of pitcher, are talking more in the scouting sense.  Radke, for example, was a #3 pitcher whose results were better than that.  (this is a good article on that)

 

A guy like Harang had some strong seasons and led the league in K once and starts once.  But he wasn't really a true #1. Same with Radke.  I think May's stuff make him a #3 if it breaks right (one true plus pitch and two avg pitches w/avg command/control or better).  And those kind of pitchers (Radke and Hughes probably fit that bill) can have some really good seasons.  But May's most important thing, I think, will be his ability to eat innings. 

[nicksaviking]

That's a conservative estimate. Every metric you can find out there says this defense is terrible, including the eye test.

 

Though obviously Hicks and Schafer change that dynamic quite a bit.

 

That's an run ever three games.  That seems like a lot. The defense isn't good, but I think a bad defense allows many fewer runs than we actually think as it almost always takes more than just the single poor play to get the runner in, the other team is still going to have to get that guy home from first or second.  More baserunners yes, but an equal number of runs, not even close.  I'd guess the Twins poor OF defense probably allowed 10-12 runs more than the average team at most.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's an run ever three games.  That seems like a lot. The defense isn't good, but I think a bad defense allows many fewer runs than we actually think as it almost always takes more than just the single poor play to get the runner in, the other team is still going to have to get that guy home from first or second.  More baserunners yes, but an equal number of runs, not even close.  I'd guess the Twins poor OF defense probably allowed 10-12 runs more than the average team at most.

One run every third game (which 50 runs isn't quite that number but close enough) isn't unreasonable. Looking at Arcia, Parmelee, Willingham, et al and you see at least one missed opportunity a game, it seems.

 

If you miss a tough catch in the outfield, there's a very good chance that it's going for extra bases. Tack on an extra double every 13.5 innings and there's your one run every three games.

[beckmt]

May should be given a chance extending into next year, but he should not be granted a spot on the staff.  Nolasco had some issues earlier this year that seem to have been resolved, so we are looking at  a staff with 7-8 pitchers for 5 spots(not a bad thing for a change).  Signing a outfielder would not be bad, but the crop of free agents is very weak this year.  Would not want to overpay for one, so am OK with the current situation or to use Dozier to bring a decent outfielder(maybe one of the Dodger ones(Kemp or Either)) in return.  Twins do not have payroll problems at this time so could swing something like this.

[Mike Frasier Law]

That's an run ever three games.  That seems like a lot. The defense isn't good, but I think a bad defense allows many fewer runs than we actually think as it almost always takes more than just the single poor play to get the runner in, the other team is still going to have to get that guy home from first or second.  More baserunners yes, but an equal number of runs, not even close.  I'd guess the Twins poor OF defense probably allowed 10-12 runs more than the average team at most.

 

As I mentioned in an earlier comment on this thread, ERA - FIP (which should show the effects of fielding on runs scored) for Twins this year is .64. That's more than 100 extra runs given up in a season. So I do think 50 runs is conservative.

[Brock Beauchamp]

or to use Dozier to bring a decent outfielder(maybe one of the Dodger ones(Kemp or Either)) in return.

If Dozier only brings back Kemp or Ethier, I'll start cheering for the Brewers.

 

I wouldn't trade Dozier for both Kemp and Ethier.

[tobi0040]

One run every third game (which 50 runs isn't quite that number but close enough) isn't unreasonable. Looking at Arcia, Parmelee, Willingham, et al and you see at least one missed opportunity a game, it seems.

 

If you miss a tough catch in the outfield, there's a very good chance that it's going for extra bases. Tack on an extra double every 13.5 innings and there's your one run every three games.

 

I am not an expert here and frankly, I think the science of defensive metrics, then converting those to runs/wins is imperfect at best.

 

But Carlos Gomez is considered one of the best defensive players.  Baseball Reference has is total DWAR over the last 4 seasons at a total of 7.6.  If we round up to 8, or 2 per year and put a Gomez in CF, LF, and RF we would win a total of 6 more games per season.  It would seem 50 fewer runs would result in more than 6 additional wins, IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am not an expert here and frankly, I think the science of defensive metrics, then converting those to runs/wins is imperfect at best.

 

But Carlos Gomez is considered one of the best defensive players.  Baseball Reference has is total DWAR over the last 4 seasons at a total of 7.6.  If we round up to 8, or 2 per year and put a Gomez in CF, LF, and RF we would win a total of 6 more games per season.  It would seem 50 fewer runs would result in more than 6 additional wins, IMO.

I agree that defensive metrics aren't perfect but we have a situation where the Twins have multiple players in the OF that are below replacement level, both statistically and visually. The pitching staff continues to underperform expected production levels based on defensive deficiencies, despite seeing massive player turnover from season to season.

 

Is that worth 50 runs? Maybe. Is it worth 80 runs? IMO, almost surely not. Is it worth 30 runs? Probably.

 

My point is that no matter how you look at the situation, the easiest path to "fixing" the pitching staff is to fix the defense. You can't "fix" Mauer - the rest of the infield looks decent - but you can fix the outfield, which has been absolutely terrible.

[ALessKosherScott]

I agree. I think May has a ceiling not terribly different from Gibson, though he gets there very differently.

 

A ceiling of a fringe #2 with a likely outcome of a fringe #3 or good #4.

 

I think the difference between May and Gibson is that Gibson is more valuable as a starter pretty much no matter what. With May, you could throw him in the pen and watch him become unhittable because he'll sit 93-94 instead of 91-92 with a wipeout changeup. In the rotation, he could become Matt Cain theoretically. But more likely he's Jorge de la Rosa.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the difference between May and Gibson is that Gibson is more valuable as a starter pretty much no matter what. With May, you could throw him in the pen and watch him become unhittable because he'll sit 93-94 instead of 91-92 with a wipeout changeup. In the rotation, he could become Matt Cain theoretically. But more likely he's Jorge de la Rosa.

True, May does have a much higher chance of success in the pen. Gibson is a starter, boom or bust... But May can wick it up fast enough and drop his weakest pitch and turn into a solid eighth inning guy, maybe a closer.

[tobi0040]

I agree that defensive metrics aren't perfect but we have a situation where the Twins have multiple players in the OF that are below replacement level, both statistically and visually. The pitching staff continues to underperform expected production levels based on defensive deficiencies, despite seeing massive player turnover from season to season.

 

Is that worth 50 runs? Maybe. Is it worth 80 runs? IMO, almost surely not. Is it worth 30 runs? Probably.

 

My point is that no matter how you look at the situation, the easiest path to "fixing" the pitching staff is to fix the defense. You can't "fix" Mauer - the rest of the infield looks decent - but you can fix the outfield, which has been absolutely terrible.

 

I think fixing the staff should mean fixing the staff.  Willie Mays is not going to make Mike Pelfrey a good pitcher. PJ Walters, Pino, etc.  He can help.  But let's not mistake a good outfield for good pitching.  I get that it is cheaper to sign three good defensive CF.  That makes us a little better defensively, but not a contending team by any stretch given the rotation and lineup those guys would bring.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think fixing the staff should mean fixing the staff.  Willie Mays is not going to make Mike Pelfrey a good pitcher. PJ Walters, Pino, etc.  He can help.  But let's not mistake a good outfield for good pitching.  I get that it is cheaper to sign three good defensive CF.  That makes us a little better defensively, but not a contending team by any stretch given the rotation and lineup those guys would bring.

I don't think Pelfrey has a place in this rotation barring injury, period. Maybe the bullpen.

 

But Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer give you a shot at competing. They don't have the highest upside in MLB but they should be able to hold their own.

 

May and Meyer need to pitch. Hughes is good. Gibson has earned another year. Nolasco is paid too much to be waived and even he has been pretty good in the past 28 days:

 

32.0 IP, 5 BB, 23 K, 34 H, 3.09 ERA

 

So how do you make those guys a little better? Easy, you put a competent defense behind them, particularly in the OF because most of those guys are flyball pitchers.

[tobi0040]

I don't think Pelfrey has a place in this rotation barring injury, period. Maybe the bullpen.

 

But Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer give you a shot at competing. They don't have the highest upside in MLB but they should be able to hold their own.

 

May and Meyer need to pitch. Hughes is good. Gibson has earned another year. Nolasco is paid too much to be waived and even he has been pretty good in the past 28 days:

 

32.0 IP, 5 BB, 23 K, 34 H, 3.09 ERA

 

So how do you make those guys a little better? Easy, you put a competent defense behind them, particularly in the OF because most of those guys are flyball pitchers.

 

An OF of Hicks, Arcia, and Buxton shading towards Arcia seems like an upgrade.  The signing or trading for a very good starter seems like it makes us better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

An OF of Hicks, Arcia, and Buxton shading towards Arcia seems like an upgrade.  The signing or trading for a very good starter seems like it makes us better.

But given the reality of the situation, Meyer is the guy you're bouncing out of the rotation by signing another starter. At some point, the Twins need to just pack it in and let the kids play, in my opinion. If the starters fail - and they might - then go find a starter next offseason.

 

In the meantime, shoring up the outfield defense - or maybe just sacrificing offense and letting Hicks/Schafer play - is a pretty easy fix and you get to find out what you really have in Hicks.

 

I'm tired of seeing the Twins kick the can down the road and stalling out prospects. At some point, they need to just throw prospects out there and make them play. And given how the MiLB system is stacked right now, those choices are only going to get harder in the coming years. If there's prospect chaff in the upper minors right now, find out and move on before you have to figure out what to do with Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, etc.

[Willihammer]

Reasons I would like to see a top flight starting pitcher signed this offseason

 

1. The high end starting pitching crop is by far the best talent in the FA class.

 

2. As bad as the Twins pitching has been (again), the staff has been, outside of Pelfrey, very healthy. I don't think it would be wise to assume they'll have the same luck again next year.  In fact, I think its probably smart to plan for at least 1/5 of the rotation coming down with a devastating TJ type injury.

 

3. The bullpen needs an overhaul. By signing a starter, they can slide everyone down a peg and filll at least one hole there.

[tobi0040]

But given the reality of the situation, Meyer is the guy you're bouncing out of the rotation by signing another starter. At some point, the Twins need to just pack it in and let the kids play, in my opinion. If the starters fail - and they might - then go find a starter next offseason.

 

In the meantime, shoring up the outfield defense - or maybe just sacrificing offense and letting Hicks/Schafer play - is a pretty easy fix and you get to find out what you really have in Hicks.

 

I'm tired of seeing the Twins kick the can down the road and stalling out prospects. At some point, they need to just throw prospects out there and make them play. And given how the MiLB system is stacked right now, those choices are only going to get harder in the coming years. If there's prospect chaff in the upper minors right now, find out and move on before you have to figure out what to do with Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, etc.

 

I get what you mean to an extent.  I think the Twins really blew it this year and would typically agree.....but when you are 28th overall in starter ERA and have been bottom 3 for 3+ years....signing one pitcher that is better than the five you have and making the other five compete is not a bad thing, IMO.  

 

In reality, one of the five will likely get hurt by mid-April, if not in camp anyway.  One may be terrible next year.  Best case, they are all lights out and you move May to the pen where he can be a shut down guy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I get what you mean to an extent.  I think the Twins really blew it this year and would typically agree.....but when you are 28th overall in starter ERA and have been bottom 3 for 3+ years....signing one pitcher that is better than the five you have and making the other five compete is not a bad thing, IMO.  

 

In reality, one of the five will likely get hurt by mid-April, if not in camp anyway.  One may be terrible next year.  Best case, they are all lights out and you move May to the pen where he can be a shut down guy.

I definitely understand your point. My personal opinion is that if Nolasco is just average, 2015's rotation probably isn't too bad.

 

Of course, guys always get injured but that's why it's nice to have a guy like Pelfrey around... I'm not keen on starting the season with future building blocks in the minors, though.

 

Another reason why it would have been nice to see Meyer in Minnesota on August 1st. We'd have more information as to what is needed in 2015.