Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins

[chopper0080]

Here is what I am comfortable with going into the 2015 season...Not saying they are going to be great or not regress, but I am either comfortable with their production or I am comfortable letting them develop IN the starting lineup.

 

C-Not

1B-Mauer/Vargas

2B-Dozier

SS-Santana (or Not if teams puts him in the OF)

3B-Not

LF-Not

CF-Not

RF-Arcia

DH-Vargas

 

SP1-Not

SP2-Hughes

SP3-Not

SP4-Gibson

SP5-Not (though we can pencil in Nolasco because Twins won't eat his contract)

 

CP-Perkins

 

I count 7 positions that I am not comfortable with heading into 2015, and need to be upgraded in order to improve this team.  One spot the Twins will eat because they will not cut Nolasco despite being terrible.  They will hope and pray on that one.  So that leaves 6 starting positions that need to be filled with better talent in order to compete for a title.  I don't believe that will happen, I believe this team is comfortable trotting out players like Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Plouffe while they wait on their prospect pipe dream, despite that resulting in 90 loss seasons year after year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Plouffe and Suzuki werent' the problems this year.

[chopper0080]

Plouffe and Suzuki werent' the problems this year.

That fact that they weren't IS the problem, and pretty much the reason we are a 90 loss team.

[RRHMIN12]

It's amazing how often that schill insult gets thrown around at anyone who dares take a positive outlook on the future of the Twins organization.  It comes from the crowds that don't pay attention to the organization as a whole, and simply watch the product at the major league level.  They look at Wins and losses, ERA, and RBI as their key indicators for how good a player is performing, and often times don't understand the role advanced metrics play in evaluation and prediction.  Then they play the "How, as a fan, can you not be outraged by this horrible team" card, and follow it up with "Prospects are just prospects until they've proven something in the majors" as if that isn't a concept that you're aware of. 

 

Kudos to you for clarifying and doubling down on your statement.

Shame on people for using wins and losses as a basis for how good a team is lol... We should all cherry pick advanced metrics to support our arguments!

[Willihammer]

The strategy looks pretty good if viewed in the context of the first year or two.  What about in 2016 and 2017 when we could actually be in contention.  Mauer, Nolasco and XX Elite SP would constitute 50% of the entire payroll budget.  (if the Twins set new revenue records)  That is a scary thought.  Mauer and Nolasco are likely to way underperform by then.  So now we should take on another huge contract of someone who is very likely going to also underperform in the final couple years of their contract.  And we would do this so we could be mediocre the next couple years and then have a bunch of dead weight on the books about the time we start getting good.

Nolasco will be off the books after 2017 and Mauer the year after. For only 3 years would they all be on the books at the same time as a 3rd or 4th FA signing.

 

They only make up a such a large proportion of the budget because they don't have anyone else to pay, and won't have anyone else to pay for many years yet.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That fact that they weren't IS the problem, and pretty much the reason we are a 90 loss team.

 

Both played their positions better than average. You won't find much in terms of replacements. If you are expecting stars in every spot, I think your expectations need to be reset. The problem this year was pitching, Mauer's poor season, pitching, lack of progression from Arcia, pitching, and really really really bad OF defense. Unfortunately, as I see it, there isn't much that can be done about it. Not much will happen in CF with Buxton coming up. LF could certainly be filled, but I think you wait on that until some of the other pieces establish themselves. You can non-tender milone (I doubt they do, nor should they), and the Twins might be convinced to give up on the last year of Pelfrey, but Nolasco isn't going anywhere. Hughes and Gibson did well. May will get his shot and will likely be much better, as will Meyer at some point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nolasco will be off the books after 2017 and Mauer the year after. For only 3 years would they all be on the books at the same time as a 3rd or 4th FA signing.

 

They only make up a such a large proportion of the budget because they don't have anyone else to pay, and won't have anyone else to pay for many years yet.

 

I think the issue I have is that I'd rather make the big expenditures when the team is a contender needing to fill a hole than to do it now when they aren't a contender. I don't see much positive from this as whatever FA they sign is probably going to be worse (potentially much worse) in 2017/18 and the presence of a contract will essentially hamstring the team from doing anything at that point. I'm not necessarily against it, but I think the idea of going out and getting that ace right now is pretty risky since that ace won't likely be that guy anymore when the team will most need it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Shame on people for using wins and losses as a basis for how good a team is lol... We should all cherry pick advanced metrics to support our arguments!

He didn't say team, he said player.

 

And wins-losses is a terrible statistic to use in player evaluation.

[Willihammer]

 

 

I think the issue I have is that I'd rather make the big expenditures when the team is a contender needing to fill a hole than to do it now when they aren't a contender. I don't see much positive from this as whatever FA they sign is probably going to be worse (potentially much worse) in 2017/18 and the presence of a contract will essentially hamstring the team from doing anything at that point. I'm not necessarily against it, but I think the idea of going out and getting that ace right now is pretty risky since that ace won't likely be that guy anymore when the team will most need it.

They Twins could ink one 8 year/175m contract for the next 4 straight offseasons and never crack 100m in payroll (this is before accounting for arb raises, but besides Plouffe, who is due for a big raise?)

 

They can do both.

[drjim]

They Twins could ink one 8 year/175m contract for the next 4 straight offseasons and never crack 100m in payroll (this is before accounting for arb raises, but besides Plouffe, who is due for a big raise?)

 

They can do both.

 

Every single person on the roster and even guys in the minors right now will receive raises in that time frame. So no, they couldn't do one of those contracts the next four years and stay under $100 mil. They probably couldn't even do two.

[Willihammer]

Fair enough, there will be 17-18 guys on the 25 man who will get paid the minimum plus whatever COLA raise they get. So I'm not accounting for ~$10m of payroll.

 

Add $10 to the projected payroll, as taken from the Payroll page here on TD, add a 8/175m contract every year for the next four years, and here's what the 25-man financial picture looks like.

 

2014 $87,333,898
2015 $92,675,000
2016 $109,250,000
2017 $88,750,000
2018 $98,625,000
2019 $65,625,000
2020 $65,625,000
2021 $65,625,000
2022 $65,625,000

 

edit: Plus, again, whatever arb raises there are (Plouffe and - gasp - Escobar, Schafer, etc)

Edited September 4, 2014 by Willihammer

[RRHMIN12]

He didn't say team, he said player.

 

And wins-losses is a terrible statistic to use in player evaluation.

 

Oh okay..Ricky Nolasco is 5-10 with 5.96 ERA, are there any advanced metrics that suggest hes pitching better than his W/L and ERA? How about Joe... .274 with 4 hrs and 46 rbis.. where are the metrics suggesting hes just getting unlucky? The advanced metric I like most says we are 61-78 lol

[drjim]

Fair enough, there will be 17-18 guys on the 25 man who will get paid the minimum plus whatever COLA raise they get. So I'm not accounting for ~$10m of payroll.

 

Add $10 to the projected payroll, as taken from the Payroll page here on TD, add a 8/175m contract every year for the next four years, and here's what the 25-man financial picture looks like.

 

2014 $87,333,898

2015 $92,675,000

2016 $109,250,000

2017 $88,750,000

2018 $98,625,000

2019 $65,625,000

2020 $65,625,000

2021 $65,625,000

2022 $65,625,000

 

Your math confuses and frightens me. Unless I am misunderstanding your point, the 2019 payroll would be $87 mil with just the 4 hypothetical fa signings. And this assumes basically no one else makes above the minimum (to stay under $100 mil)?

[Willihammer]

Your math confuses and frightens me. Unless I am misunderstanding your point, the 2019 payroll would be $87 mil with just the 4 hypothetical fa signings. And this assumes basically no one else makes above the minimum (to stay under $100 mil)?

Do you think the Twins will be paying big arbitration raises to Plouffe long after Sano's up?

 

There is Gibson in 2017, that could push payroll over 100 million, assuming he stays healthy and relatively productive. Of course by 2017 the Twins are going to be good, right?

 

Beisdes those two, who am I missing?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/roster-payroll.html

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is statistic regression likely in some cases? Sure -- that's the nature of baseball. But it will be offset to some degree by young players getting better, and eventually by the arrivals of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and others. If you're not feeling confident in the offensive outlook right now, you're just not paying attention.

We've been hearing variations of this for the last few years, though.  "Player X is likely to regress some, sure, but Player Y is likely to improve too."  Problem is, Player X has often regressed more than we like, and Player Y's improvement doesn't always materialize.  It doesn't help that the "game changers" are always prospects 1-2 years away.

 

I like this year's mix better too, but it's probably misleading to say that the Twins have only one major need to address this offseason.  If that's the approach, they are unlikely to see significant improvement in 2015, which suggests they have more holes than that (even if we don't know all of them yet!).

[drjim]

Do you think the Twins will be paying big arbitration raises to Plouffe long after Sano's up?

 

There is Gibson in 2017, that could push payroll over 100 million, assuming he stays healthy and relatively productive. Of course by 2017 the Twins are going to be good, right?

 

Beisdes those two, who am I missing?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/roster-payroll.html

 

Dozier? Arcia? Santana? Vargas? Pinto? Hughes extension? Mauer extension? Hicks (wishful thinking)? 

 

By 2020, you would have the same $87 mil for the 4 fa, plus potential of guys listed above, plus guys that debut next year (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Berrios, etc) starting to get paid for arb.

 

Same issue in 2021, but even more expensive arb cases.

 

Obviously all these guys aren't going to make it to arb, but that also counts no other free agents to fill in possible holes that are filled by guys that don't make it internally.

 

There is, without question, a window of 4-5 years to go big on a fa or two, and I hope they do, but they only really have one or two shots to do so, not 4.

[USAFChief]

Both played their positions better than average. You won't find much in terms of replacements. If you are expecting stars in every spot, I think your expectations need to be reset. The problem this year was pitching, Mauer's poor season, pitching, lack of progression from Arcia, pitching, and really really really bad OF defense. Unfortunately, as I see it, there isn't much that can be done about it. Not much will happen in CF with Buxton coming up. LF could certainly be filled, but I think you wait on that until some of the other pieces establish themselves. You can non-tender milone (I doubt they do, nor should they), and the Twins might be convinced to give up on the last year of Pelfrey, but Nolasco isn't going anywhere. Hughes and Gibson did well. May will get his shot and will likely be much better, as will Meyer at some point.

I think the point is not that they are bad players. The point is, when they are among your best players, you have a pretty weak collection of players.

[gocgo]

Lots of good observations/comments.  I think us long time Twins fans still recognize good baseball, so I don't think we have become complacent and accepting of the product on the field.  I watch, but I haven't been to a game in 2 years because of the product on the field.  I see a couple of problems outside of pitching that are tough fixes.  Generally, your winning teams are solid on the corners defensively and/or get great offensive production from those spots.  Mauer and Plouffe aren't those guys.  Mauers offensive production as a catcher was well above average, but is well below average for a 1st baseman/DH.  For the last couple of years, we've needed a shortstop that is good defensively and hits above .250.  We now have 2 (or at least we think we do).  IF Sano is major league ready, the Twins have the question of what to do with Plouffe.  If he can play outfield, he could play a role as a superutility guy playing some 3rd and some left/right field.  If he can't, what do you do with him?  I don't see a future for him with the Twins.  Schafer would be a good 4th outfielder, I agree.  However, that assumes that Hicks is ready to play left and produce at the plate and that assumes that Buxton is ready for center field.  While I would love to agree that we are only a couple of positions away, I can't yet because of all the questions regarding 3rd, CF, and even 1B/DH....and I haven't even gotten to the pitching yet.  I will say that I am hopeful for a brighter future...just not convinced that I'll want to buy a ticket next year yet.

[brvama]

Have enjoyed this discussion extremely - one of the best in a while.  So now for my small contribution.

 

Call it a hunch or whatever, I believe the Twins are on the cusp of playoff baseball.  Reminds me a great deal of the very early 2000's.  No we're not there yet, but with the wealth of very talented minor leaguers knocking on the door, I expect competitive baseball starting in 2016 with dominance in the Central at least beyond that.  Yes, holes will need to be filled, but the core is maturing to that timeframe, barring any repeat of the 2014 injury hex.

 

To evaluate players strictly by metrics or current performance without context can certainly skew any projection.  Young talented players should mature and grow in their performance.  If not they are gone.  Players moving into their prime years should be able to at least maintain their recent level of performance.  While the older players will likely regress somewhat, but the real professionals usually know how to adjust with declining skills by adjusting roles.

 

This is true for every club.  What is some promising for the Twins is that we are moving into our youth movement, which no one should be able to deny its strength of talent. 

 

While I have grown weary of lousy years, this sunrise of the future Twins team is starting to look "gorgeous."  Can't wait until it's High Noon!

[gocgo]

I think we can all agree that this team is much better than the team we started the year with!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think the point is not that they are bad players. The point is, when they are among your best players, you have a pretty weak collection of players.

 

If that's the point that was being made, then my point for saying what I said was completed missed. Plouffe and Suzukie were among the guys that were listed as someone not to be trusted. Both have been solidly above average for their positions this year. They aren't stars, I get that. They are complementary pieces, even to a contending team... I'd argue that pieces like that are a necessity on a contending team. The potential stars really aren't here yet, and that I think is the biggest problem the Twins face... along with pitching.

[chopper0080]

 

 

If that's the point that was being made, then my point for saying what I said was completed missed. Plouffe and Suzukie were among the guys that were listed as someone not to be trusted. Both have been solidly above average for their positions this year. They aren't stars, I get that. They are complementary pieces, even to a contending team... I'd argue that pieces like that are a necessity on a contending team. The potential stars really aren't here yet, and that I think is the biggest problem the Twins face... along with pitching.

 

The problem is that we have several rosters spots WORSE than Suzuki and Plouffe which is a problem.  Yes, good teams have players like Plouffe or Suzuki on their roster, but they are the weak links and they are not counted on to win games.  You can't expect to win when you are counting them to be consistent while your young, sporadic players like Vargas, Santana, and Arcia are going thru the ups and downs to breakinginto the big leagues.

 

You can't have holes at SP, holes in the OF, holes at SS, and then say that you are counting on Suzuki and Plouffe with expectation that is is a winning formula.  We need to add significant talent at some sort of mix of OF, SP, SS,3B, and C.  If there is an upgrade over Suzuki at C, we need to take a hard look at it.  If there is an upgrade available at 3B, we need to look into it.  SP is the same.  OF is the same.  Now, not every position is going to have those opportunities in an offseason, but the ones that are, need to be acquired.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh okay..Ricky Nolasco is 5-10 with 5.96 ERA, are there any advanced metrics that suggest hes pitching better than his W/L and ERA? How about Joe... .274 with 4 hrs and 46 rbis.. where are the metrics suggesting hes just getting unlucky? The advanced metric I like most says we are 61-78 lol

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[Mike Sixel]

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Latin Snark!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Latin Snark!

I don't know what on earth you're talking about.