Keith Law Mideseason Top 5 Farm Systems

[Otto von Ballpark]

The counterpoint is that most players don't make it up at that point, and there's a reason for that. The ones that do are their b/c they are special talents, and cherry picking one or two guys out of an org misses the fact that most orgs dont' have that much special talent.

 

Is that true? 24/25 hardly seems like rushing anybody, frankly I would be surprised if many guys who eventually stick in MLB debut after that age. Just eyeballing the Twins current roster, it looks like most of them debuted by 25.

 

Your point would work much better if your age cut-off was 21/22 -- those seem to be the more rare, special talents.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the conversation were about top players below 25, then I agree excluding guys who are in the majors would be foolish. But in a conversation about "which teams are best suited to improve from within," it makes sense that if you have fewer guys below the majors who might contribute meaningful innings any time soon, you would be ranked lower.

 

Well, I didn't bring it up!

 

But I don't think farm system ranks correlate particularly well with "which teams are best suited to improve from within" either. Why should the Astros be less "suited to improve from within" because they promoted Springer and Singleton to the majors a couple months ago? Or the Pirates with Polanco? Are the Marlins and Mets less suited to improve from within, because Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey dominated MLB but are out for the year with injury, as compared to a team whose prospects have yet to reach MLB much less excel?

 

I just thought it was a decent point -- of the teams near them in "top farm systems" rankings, the Twins are still the worst positioned in terms of graduating that farm system talent to the MLB roster. Maybe that's preaching to the choir or re-hashing old debates (not that top farm system discussion hasn't been re-hashed quite a bit by itself!), but I thought it was an interesting point.

 

Not sure if there are a lot more compelling interesting points to bring up in regards to yet another high farm system ranking.

[Oxtung]

I dunno, but it seems to me like all the "no MLB talent under 25" stuff is just a re-hashing of what we all already knew - that the Twins had some very unproductive drafts for a stretch. They were drafting late in the first round and missed with some guys, compounding the problem, and did little-to-nothing to compensate for it in the free agent pitching market.

 

Not much debate about that, really.

 

But to bring it all back up in a slightly different guise like "no under 25 MLB talent," in a thread topic focused on the organization's farm system ranking, feels a bit like just trying to turn a positive point in to another discussion critical of the FO based on the same failures that have been pointed out and conceded elsewhere.

 

It's not about being negative or pointing out the faults of the organization over the last few years. It's about being realistic about where we're at.

 

It's easy to look at these prospect rankings and get really excited, and hoping on the future is a great thing currently, but it should also be in the back of everyones head that the Twins promote slowly and so these rankings don't tell the whole story. When we are dreaming on the future we need to keep in mind that other teams have more young talent than exists in these rankings. To me it's a reminder that the Twins can't get complacent and throw their hands up and wait for the young guys to come up.

[jorgenswest]

A year from now the Twins may be leading the AL Central in IP and PA for players 25 and younger. May, Meyer and Tonkin could be on the team from opening day. Duffy and Gilmartin may make an appearance by this time next year.

 

Offensively, Arcia and Santana may be starters. Sano and Rosario may arrive early in the season. Hicks figures something out. Buxton or Vargas may be up just after the super two deadline. Ortiz might find a role as the fourth OF.

 

I look forward to when the Twins system drops in the prospect ranking as a result of a glut of young players promoted to the major leagues. That has to happen in the next year.

[bird]

I agree with Jorgenswest. Prospect rankings are great but what really matters is players under a particular age (25 seems like a good cutoff). Does anyone think that Michael Wacha is worth less going forward than Meyer? Or that Giancarlo Stanton doesn't matter but Sano does? The Cardinals, Rangers, Marlins, for example, would "rank" much higher when looking at under 25.

 

Were the topic top organizational talent versus top farm systems, we could talk about it, except for another dilemma: who besides BP has published such a ranking? But I certainly agree that we're not at a point yet where the overall organizational talent, MLB and MILB combined, earns us more than a top-third ranking.

[Steven Buhr]

It's not about being negative or pointing out the faults of the organization over the last few years. It's about being realistic about where we're at.

 

It's easy to look at these prospect rankings and get really excited, and hoping on the future is a great thing currently, but it should also be in the back of everyones head that the Twins promote slowly and so these rankings don't tell the whole story. When we are dreaming on the future we need to keep in mind that other teams have more young talent than exists in these rankings. To me it's a reminder that the Twins can't get complacent and throw their hands up and wait for the young guys to come up.

 

I will agree with this.

 

But I also agree with jorgenswest that a year from now, the "average age" thing at the big league level is likely to look very different. Top MiLB talent tends to arrive at different times for each team. Those that have several guys promoted this year may have few the next couple years while the Twins' top players come up. It doesn't mean the teams that saw their guys arrive first are necessarily better or worse off.

 

The pace at which each individual player develops his game to the point where he can be successful in the big leagues just varies a lot, I think, from guy to guy.

 

Yes, the premier prospects will most likely be drafted out of HS or signed via international FA at 16 and arrive by the time they're 22ish if they remain injury free. Yes, the Twins have had few (if any) of those since Joe Mauer. Yes, their top pitching prospects (at least in terms of near-future arrival in Minn) were college pitchers, acquired in trades, and have had some developmental/injury hiccups.

 

Guess I just don't care if they'll be 25+ when they arrive or not.

 

Just pretty glad someone noticed there was a need to add those arms and made the deals necessary to get them. Really would not want to go in to another offseason feeling like the Twins needed to add 3 more FAs to fill out their rotation again.

[Mr. Brooks]

Innings pitched for players 25 and younger in the AL Central

 

309.2 White Sox

295.2 Tigers

288.0 Royals

233.1 Indians

15.1 Twins

 

The Twins rank 30th. The Marlins (473), Cardinals (400.2) and Mariners (328.1) are the top 3.

 

This is pretty shocking for a team that really should be rebuilding. Wow!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This is pretty shocking for a team that really should be rebuilding. Wow!

And has had one of the worst rotations in baseball for the 4th year in a row

[DocBauer]

A year from now the Twins may be leading the AL Central in IP and PA for players 25 and younger. May, Meyer and Tonkin could be on the team from opening day. Duffy and Gilmartin may make an appearance by this time next year.

 

Offensively, Arcia and Santana may be starters. Sano and Rosario may arrive early in the season. Hicks figures something out. Buxton or Vargas may be up just after the super two deadline. Ortiz might find a role as the fourth OF.

 

I look forward to when the Twins system drops in the prospect ranking as a result of a glut of young players promoted to the major leagues. That has to happen in the next year.

 

Agreed!

 

There also a couple other relief arms not mentioned that we could include here. I do think Sano and Rosario potentially arriving early is a bit ambitious, but your point is well taken.

 

Patience is indeed a virtue. And I understand that when your team has had 3 very poor seasons in a row, it's hard to remain patient for the future and a return to serious competition. Especially when you read scouting reports and box scores and prospect rankings. Patience tends to fly out the window, and impatience meets hope somewhere at the fantasy crossroads and it's easy to say: "but this guy, and this guy, and that guy could do this and that if only........"

 

But the minors exist for a reason. And prospects work themselves up for a reason, regardless if you feel an organization is too fast or too slow to promote. A ML team is about building, or re-building, a quality team to compete. Not a showcase for minor league potentials. And while I also am impatient to see our top young talent arrive, I also want them to be ready to succeed, and not fumble and stumble excessively and ride red-eyes up and down to the minors repeatedly while they find their footing.

 

We all want these kids to be "it". And we'd like to have them be so for as long as possible. But there is simply no formula that states a player must arrive by a certain age in order to have a quality career and be a fixture. And while I wish there was, there is also no formula or crystal ball to tell you to draft or promote a certain player by a certain birthdate to ensure he is a hall of famer.

[amjgt]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml

 

But I agree, waiting this long isn't doing the player or the game any favors. I am more interested in SABR type stats these days, but I love baseball history. There wouldn't be many 3K hitters, 500 HR sluggers and 300 win pitchers if teams made their players wait until they were a polished 25-year-old to play in the majors.

 

To be fair, the Twins don't seem to require the same amount of polish for hitters as they do pitchers, but their seeming insistance that Gibson, May and Meyer have to rub off all their rough edges before they can debut is frustrating.

 

That's the one that comes to mind for many of us, but here's another one.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml

 

(he had exactly 5 before he turned 25)

[amjgt]

Dave Stewart also: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewada01.shtml

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's the one that comes to mind for many of us, but here's another one.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml

 

(he had exactly 5 before he turned 25)

 

Randy Johnson is more the exception that proves the rule, I think. Just look at his minor league and early career BB rates, and what he eventually became -- that's a pretty unique career, and not a good precedent for anyone.

 

Schilling and Stewart both pitched a full season or more of relief in MLB before age 25, not unusual patterns and commonly accepted for many young pitchers (although Stewart was very much a late bloomer regardless).