Yasmani Tomas defects

[tobi0040]

 

I also don't like the pitching is a bigger problem so fix that first.  When you are a bad team then you have to take whatever talent you can get and go for the best talent.  I'm not against spending big money on a 30 yr old pitcher but that's what you are going to get.  There aren't any 24 yr old FA pitchers out there.

 

I agree that you won't find a 24 year old free agent pitcher.  I don't think any high profile guys from Japan are coming.  But this is the Twins, resources are scarce. We do have to acknowledge this.  If we drop $70M on this guy, we won't be adding a pitcher sans very short high upside one year deal. 

 

And this guy isn't going to be improving the staff.  The staff is the issue.  The Twins will need better pitching to become relevant.  Not adding a pitcher means the strategy is wait for prospects and pray for improvement of the guys there (and also pray you don't get regression from Hughes and Gibson).

[Willihammer]

Maeda's coming. Would you rather see the Twins blow $100m on a 24 year old Tomas or a 27 year old Maeda?

[Linus]

Maeda's coming. Would you rather see the Twins blow $100m on a 24 year old Tomas or a 27 year old Maeda?

I would rather blow $100m on James Shields.  Rotation fixed and we are now contenders.

[nicksaviking]

I would rather blow $100m on James Shields.  Rotation fixed and we are now contenders.

 

I don't think you fix the rotation by spending $100 million on a 34 year old with a plummetng K rate.

[kab21]

Maeda doesn't sound very overpowering and some are calling him a #4 starter.  I will pass on 100+M contract for that even if he is 27.

 

If the Twins stay conservative this winter then I hope they blow multiple years (3 yrs) of international bonus money on this guy.  He sounds freaky good and is only 19.  Of course they need to find him and hopefully he isn't eligible before July (the Red Sox, Yankees and others cannot sign him).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yoan-moncada-game-theory/

[tobi0040]

I don't think you fix the rotation by spending $100 million on a 34 year old with a plummetng K rate.

 

He will turn 33 in a three months. I would go 4-80 on Shields this off-season.  K rate is declining, but he stiill put up a 3.21 ERA with the 7.1 K per 9.  3.15 ERA with a 7.7 K per 9 last year.  His secret is crazy control to go along with slightly better than average K rates.  Over 4 K to BB this year.

 

I don't think we have great options and I think Shields is the best of them

 

Option 1 - We can not sign anyone and go with the hope and wait strategy (hope everyone is better and nobody good regresses) and wait and hope prospects come up and pitch well from day 1.

 

I would like to rule that out.  When you are 28-30th in starter ERA three years running you need an infusion of better talent.

 

Option 2 - Sign someone.  We are not signing Max or Lester and IMO, Ervin is risky.  He has had good/bad years on and off and only one year younger.    So it leaves Shields as the last impact guy left.

 

Option 3 - Trade.  This should be pursued.  But I think many on these boards have had unrealistc proposals.  We are not getting a guy like Cole Hamels, Jeff S., or Cueto with several OK to maybe good prospects.  We would be losing Sano or Buxton plus something AND taking payroll up to about our cap for next year if we dole out extensions or take on the salary.  This is actually the option that makes the least sense to me.  You give up payroll and key prospects for one player.  One player is not turning this around.

[Willihammer]

Iwakuma was supposed to be a 4 too, according to KLaw at least. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the Twins (and everyone else) has better options this year in Free Agency for starting pitching than last year. Having Scherzer and Lester at the top makes everyone else drop down a bit and increases the chances that a team can make a competitive offer to a not terrible pitcher.  

 

It would be amazing if the Twins would make an offer to Tomas, but I think that even if they do, it won't be the highest offer that he gets.

 

They have a better chance of signing James Shields this offseason, and an even better chance of reaching a deal with a player a bit lower on the list, like Santana, Masterson, McCarthy, Gavin Floyd, etc.

 

Having Tomas out there I think gives the Twins a better shot at Melky Cabrera; Having Melky as a free agent (and Nelson Cruz) gives the Twins a better shot at signing Colby Rasmus.

 

I don't know if the Twins will have the desire to spend the $$ needed to acquire any of these guys, but they defiintely have better options than last offseason.

[nicksaviking]

I've always been a big Shields fan, but he's going to cause his next team a ton of buyer's remorse.  When you first see he has 8 consecutive seasons of 200+ IP, (sometimes very +) you think that's awesome.  But it's only awesome because it's not expected anymore.  So now the buying team is supposed to expect 9, 10, 11 and 12 or maybe 13 seasons of 200+ IP? No way.  With that significantly declining K rate, he's a disaster waiting to happen.  Let the big clubs make more foolish decisions with Shields, Lester and Scherzer.  If they want to continue to make poor choices, don't stop them.

 

Go for the higher upside guys on short deals.  There are plenty out there.  Learn from the Pirates, not the Yankees. 

[tobi0040]

I think the Twins (and everyone else) has better options this year in Free Agency for starting pitching than last year. Having Scherzer and Lester at the top makes everyone else drop down a bit and increases the chances that a team can make a competitive offer to a not terrible pitcher.  

 

It would be amazing if the Twins would make an offer to Tomas, but I think that even if they do, it won't be the highest offer that he gets.

 

They have a better chance of signing James Shields this offseason, and an even better chance of reaching a deal with a player a bit lower on the list, like Santana, Masterson, McCarthy, Gavin Floyd, etc.

 

Having Tomas out there I think gives the Twins a better shot at Melky Cabrera; Having Melky as a free agent (and Nelson Cruz) gives the Twins a better shot at signing Colby Rasmus.

 

I don't know if the Twins will have the desire to spend the $$ needed to acquire any of these guys, but they defiintely have better options than last offseason.

 

I agree the supply is a lot better this year.  The other bummer is many of the second tier guys probably don't sign until the big boys do.  From a fan perspective that makes me a tad antsy!

[tobi0040]

I've always been a big Shields fan, but he's going to cause his next team a ton of buyer's remorse.  When you first see he has 8 consecutive seasons of 200+ IP, (sometimes very +) you think that's awesome.  But it's only awesome because it's not expected anymore.  So now the buying team is supposed to expect 9, 10, 11 and 12 or maybe 13 seasons of 200+ IP? No way.  With that significantly declining K rate, he's a disaster waiting to happen.  Let the big clubs make more foolish decisions with Shields, Lester and Scherzer.  If they want to continue to make poor choices, don't stop them.

 

Go for the higher upside guys on short deals.  There are plenty out there.  Learn from the Pirates, not the Yankees. 

 

I don't like the rehab/improvement type upside deals.  These fail more than they work and the Twins don't have the best history.

 

Most of these are going to be one year deals.  That doesn't do much for us.  Best case these guys stay both healhty and effective and we flip them.  I want to get better now.

[kab21]

Iwakuma was supposed to be a 4 too, according to KLaw at least. 

 

And he was a fine choice when there was 14M guaranteed on the line.  I think it's a poor idea to ignore scouting reports and stats (7.3 K/9 in Japan) when there is 100+M on the line.

[Willihammer]

Maeda's stats are pretty similar to Iwakuma's actually. Don't look bad next to Kuroda's either.

 

It just seems like the industry tends to under-estimate. Tanaka is another. Fastball too flat, stuff wouldn't translate. He was given a no. 2 as a ceiling. Cashman signed him to be a no. 3. Kuroda was supposed to be a 3. Darvish was the only one (recently) who the industry expected to be a no. 1 (and he hasn't disappointed, obviously).

[goulik]

All these people quote team ERA ranked 28-30th and demand improvement.

 

Asking an honest question here, is that season long team ERA which includes guys that are no longer starters or August September ERA which still includes some starts by guys that won't be starting next year.

 

In my opinion, we had a rookie May, that began poorly but showed improvement and Milone with a veteran AL track record of decency but was miserable for us in a small sample size the last two months which skews the end of season look... Without getting into the numbers or facts to back up my opinion, it just seems to me that the discussion about how badly the rotation needs improvement is overblown some( not completely, just some) based on starters we actually have at the end of the year.

 

Back on topic, we need an outfielder and have plenty of revenue. Sign Tomas and if you can get a top flight ace for 3-4 years, do that also. Honestly, we can afford it cuz everyone else on the roster is affordable enough for long enough to not over tax the revenue streams the next few years.

[Linus]

And he was a fine choice when there was 14M guaranteed on the line.  I think it's a poor idea to ignore scouting reports and stats (7.3 K/9 in Japan) when there is 100+M on the line.

This is my point, better stated.  If we are handing out big contracts, I want to hand it to a proven MLB performer, and a pitcher, as this one add dramatically improves our chances next year.  Doesn't have to be Shields (which I used as an example) but somebody we know is going to come in and perform.

[tobi0040]

All these people quote team ERA ranked 28-30th and demand improvement.

 

Asking an honest question here, is that season long team ERA which includes guys that are no longer starters or August September ERA which still includes some starts by guys that won't be starting next year.

 

In my opinion, we had a rookie May, that began poorly but showed improvement and Milone with a veteran AL track record of decency but was miserable for us in a small sample size the last two months which skews the end of season look... Without getting into the numbers or facts to back up my opinion, it just seems to me that the discussion about how badly the rotation needs improvement is overblown some( not completely, just some) based on starters we actually have at the end of the year.

 

 

 

Here were the numbers of four guys that will either be in the rotation or mix next year:

 

                 IP This year      ERA           ERA +    Career ERA +

 

Nolasco         159               5.38          73                   91

Hughes          209               3.52          112                98

Gibson           179               4.47          88                  81

Pelfrey            23                7.99           50                 88

 

And then you have Meyer and May.  Both prospects.  I am excited about Meyer but both of these guys have struggled with control and Meyer has dealt with injuries.

 

When you don't have a single pitcher on your team with a career ERA + of 100, don't blow $70M on an unknown Cuban OF.  Especially when you were 5th in runs the previous season.

[kab21]

Maeda's stats are pretty similar to Iwakuma's actually. Don't look bad next to Kuroda's either.

 

It just seems like the industry tends to under-estimate. Tanaka is another. Fastball too flat, stuff wouldn't translate. He was given a no. 2 as a ceiling. Cashman signed him to be a no. 3. Kuroda was supposed to be a 3. Darvish was the only one (recently) who the industry expected to be a no. 1 (and he hasn't disappointed, obviously).

 

This line of reasoning leads to Kei Igawa signings.  Not every Japanese pitcher has been successful.  Some exceed expectations while others fall short.  For example Irabu and DiceK.  Overall we are talking about a small sample size of high profile players that have come from Japan.

[ashbury]

Igawa at $4M for 5 years didn't kill the Yankees' budget and wouldn't kill the Twins' either.  No GM is likely to say, "sorry, can't sign Scherzer, we've still got $4M on the books sitting in AAA".

 

Of course you don't just throw away $4M for the sake of spending, and you don't want to come out on the wrong end of such risks multiple times; but if your scouts agree there is upside, you can compute the risk factors and decide to make the offer.

 

Mind you, I don't trust the Twins' scouting of Japan, based on the Nishioka experience.  I don't recall hearing Ryan explain his view on why it failed when other MLB teams have succeeded, and what constructive steps have been taken to prevent that.  We can see they haven't signed anyone from there again.

 

It still comes down to talent evaluation.

[goulik]

Here were the numbers of four guys that will either be in the rotation or mix next year:

 

                 IP This year      ERA           ERA +    Career ERA +

 

Nolasco         159               5.38          73                   91

Hughes          209               3.52          112                98

Gibson           179               4.47          88                  81

Pelfrey            23                7.99           50                 88

 

And then you have Meyer and May.  Both prospects.  I am excited about Meyer but both of these guys have struggled with control and Meyer has dealt with injuries.

 

When you don't have a single pitcher on your team with a career ERA + of 100, don't blow $70M on an unknown Cuban OF.  Especially when you were 5th in runs the previous season.

Thanks, answers the question mostly. You did leave off Milone who has to also be considered as a potential rotation member and probably above Pelfrey AND Nolasco base don AL tack record.

 

Part of my point though was 14 million a year for an outfielder would not harm short or long term prospects or interfere with signing an Ace to 20 million a year. The Twins budget has the room for both easily.

[tobi0040]

Thanks, answers the question mostly. You did leave off Milone who has to also be considered as a potential rotation member and probably above Pelfrey AND Nolasco base don AL tack record.

 

Part of my point though was 14 million a year for an outfielder would not harm short or long term prospects or interfere with signing an Ace to 20 million a year. The Twins budget has the room for both easily.

 

I forgot about Milone, he was rather forgettable here in his short stint.  I don't see the Twins signing up for another $34M AAV next year.

 

I just get a bad feeling when we are going to roll into next season with the same guys we had this season.  Assuming nobody gets worse, everyone gets better, prospects come up and play well right away, and nobody gets hurt does not seem like a viable strategy for improvement.

[Linus]

I forgot about Milone, he was rather forgettable here in his short stint.  I don't see the Twins signing up for another $34M AAV next year.

 

I just get a bad feeling when we are going to roll into next season with the same guys we had this season.  Assuming nobody gets worse, everyone gets better, prospects come up and play well right away, and nobody gets hurt does not seem like a viable strategy for improvement.

Couldn't agree more.  I like Meyer a lot as a prospect and certainly hope May ends up being a MLB caliber starter but you can't have 40% of your rotation dependent on rookies (not to mention that somebody is going to get hurt - it happens every year).  Dedicate one spot for the two of them and the other can pitch out of the pen or in AAA, whichever is most appropriate.  Add another quality starter that backs everyone up one spot and we can actually contend next year.  The only way I want to see Pelfrey or Milone is if we end up with multiple starters injured.

 

If both Meyer and May deserve to be MLB starters, we can figure out a way.  They will not be blocked - let's worry about too many good pitchers when it actually happens.  Teams that rank 28th in ERA can't take any chances.

[nicksaviking]

I don't like the rehab/improvement type upside deals.  These fail more than they work and the Twins don't have the best history.

 

Most of these are going to be one year deals.  That doesn't do much for us.  Best case these guys stay both healhty and effective and we flip them.  I want to get better now.

 

All free agent pitchers fail more than they work out, at least these if these guys fail, they do so only for a year or two.  Also, I'm not sure why a guy on a one year deal wouldn't help you if you want to get better now.  That's exactly what they are brought in to do. 

 

Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Fransico Liriano, Dan Haren, Scott Feldman, Ervin Santana, Bartolo Colon, Jason Hammel, Hiroki Kuroda, Tim Hudson were all guys with some upside signed to 1-2 year deals in the last couple of years.  There are plenty that have failed, but I bet we can come up with more names that have worked out on short term deals than we could find for long term deals and it wouldn't even be close.  The only long term deals that seem to work out are basically extenstions for guys still under contract, Cole Hammels, Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw.  These seem to have better success rates (though really the jury is still out on these) likely because these guys are still young.  Show me a young free agent arm, like Phil Hughes, and I'll get on board a longer term deal.

 

I used to be all for signing big time free agent pitchers to long term deals, but it's looking more and more like a house bet.  You just can't win.  Very few pitchers are among the elite and healthy year in and year out once they get past their early 30's.

[SwainZag]

Here were the numbers of four guys that will either be in the rotation or mix next year:

 

                 IP This year      ERA           ERA +    Career ERA +

 

Nolasco         159               5.38          73                   91

Hughes          209               3.52          112                98

Gibson           179               4.47          88                  81

Pelfrey            23                7.99           50                 88

 

And then you have Meyer and May.  Both prospects.  I am excited about Meyer but both of these guys have struggled with control and Meyer has dealt with injuries.

 

When you don't have a single pitcher on your team with a career ERA + of 100, don't blow $70M on an unknown Cuban OF.  Especially when you were 5th in runs the previous season.

 

Going even further:

 

Nolasco FIP: 4.30

Hughes: 2.65

Gibson: 3.80

Pelfrey: 7.57

May: 4.77  (ERA of 7.88)

 

You can talk about having the 28th-30th team in ERA all you want, but when every starter has AT LEAST a FIP of 1/2 run below their ERA addition to the OF defense would just as much difference as adding a starter. (Not that Tomas is the answer based on his defensive metrics, but in general)

[kab21]

Igawa at $4M for 5 years didn't kill the Yankees' budget and wouldn't kill the Twins' either.  No GM is likely to say, "sorry, can't sign Scherzer, we've still got $4M on the books sitting in AAA".

 

Of course you don't just throw away $4M for the sake of spending, and you don't want to come out on the wrong end of such risks multiple times; but if your scouts agree there is upside, you can compute the risk factors and decide to make the offer.

 

Mind you, I don't trust the Twins' scouting of Japan, based on the Nishioka experience.  I don't recall hearing Ryan explain his view on why it failed when other MLB teams have succeeded, and what constructive steps have been taken to prevent that.  We can see they haven't signed anyone from there again.

 

It still comes down to talent evaluation.

 

You miss the point about Igawa and even downplay how much money he cost.  He got one of the largest posting fees and contracts for a Japanese player in history.  Between the posting fee and contract he was a guaranteed cost of 46M 7 years ago.  For the most he was overpaid due to DiceK's contract but he had mediocre scouting reports. 

 

Maeda (160lbs) also has mediocre scouting reports with a 90mph fastball and lacks a knockout secondary pitch.  Most seem to be willing to ignore scouting reports and sign him for 100+M due to Darvish and Tanaka.  He could be excellent and exceed expectations but that's a big gamble for 100+M.

[tobi0040]

All free agent pitchers fail more than they work out, at least these if these guys fail, they do so only for a year or two.  Also, I'm not sure why a guy on a one year deal wouldn't help you if you want to get better now.  That's exactly what they are brought in to do. 

 

Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Fransico Liriano, Dan Haren, Scott Feldman, Ervin Santana, Bartolo Colon, Jason Hammel, Hiroki Kuroda, Tim Hudson were all guys with some upside signed to 1-2 year deals in the last couple of years.  There are plenty that have failed, but I bet we can come up with more names that have worked out on short term deals than we could find for long term deals and it wouldn't even be close.  The only long term deals that seem to work out are basically extenstions for guys still under contract, Cole Hammels, Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw.  These seem to have better success rates (though really the jury is still out on these) likely because these guys are still young.  Show me a young free agent arm, like Phil Hughes, and I'll get on board a longer term deal.

 

I used to be all for signing big time free agent pitchers to long term deals, but it's looking more and more like a house bet.  You just can't win.  Very few pitchers are among the elite and healthy year in and year out once they get past their early 30's.

What I meant us we are not winning the world series so signing a high risk guy like masterson on a one year deal does not make sense to me. He blocks someone, if he is bad it is a waste if he is good it is an audition for someone else.

[tobi0040]

Going even further:

 

Nolasco FIP: 4.30

Hughes: 2.65

Gibson: 3.80

Pelfrey: 7.57

May: 4.77 (ERA of 7.88)

 

You can talk about having the 28th-30th team in ERA all you want, but when every starter has AT LEAST a FIP of 1/2 run below their ERA addition to the OF defense would just as much difference as adding a starter. (Not that Tomas is the answer based on his defensive metrics, but in general)

q

Going even further:

 

Nolasco FIP: 4.30

Hughes: 2.65

Gibson: 3.80

Pelfrey: 7.57

May: 4.77 (ERA of 7.88)

 

You can talk about having the 28th-30th team in ERA all you want, but when every starter has AT LEAST a FIP of 1/2 run below their ERA addition to the OF defense would just as much difference as adding a starter. (Not that Tomas is the answer based on his defensive metrics, but in general)

So going off fip. We have one very good starter. Another 2/3 (gibson). And a guy that was league average who had elbow issues this year. Then we are relying on meyer and may to round out the rotation (don't think pelfrey or milone are in a playoff rotation).

 

We are giving ourselves no contingency plan, let alone addressing the talent issue. Linus said it best, let's worry about having too many good pitchers when that happens

 

The other issue is we could shave 81 runs off are runs allowed (half run a game) and still be 22nd. Not good enough. We need more pitching talent.

[kab21]

What I meant us we are not winning the world series so signing a high risk guy like masterson on a one year deal does not make sense to me. He blocks someone, if he is bad it is a waste if he is good it is an audition for someone else.

 

I think it's a myth that signing one pitcher blocks anyone if that one pitcher is actually good.  A prospect might have to start in AAA but based on past experience there are always going to be openings at some point during the season.  I look forward to the day that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked.

[freshinthehouse]

Unless my North Dakota public school math has failed me, we could offer Tomas in the range of 7/105 and Shields in the range of 4/80 and we'd still be in the 95-115mill payroll range for the next few years.  Dangle a 8 mill payment or so and get someone to take Nolasco in a trade.  Besides Dozier, who is coming up on arb years that we really have to worry about?  This is the perfect time to spend money for this squad.

[drjim]

What I meant us we are not winning the world series so signing a high risk guy like masterson on a one year deal does not make sense to me. He blocks someone, if he is bad it is a waste if he is good it is an audition for someone else.

Disagree with this thinking. If he is good and they have other breaks they might be able compete. Or if he is good and (more likely) they aren't competing he can be flipped or extended. If he is bad it buys some development time. All strike me as positive outcomes.

 

Nothing wrong with trying to sign talented players for next year while maintaining roster and payroll flexibility going forward.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is my point, better stated.  If we are handing out big contracts, I want to hand it to a proven MLB performer, and a pitcher, as this one add dramatically improves our chances next year.  Doesn't have to be Shields (which I used as an example) but somebody we know is going to come in and perform.

 

Like Nolasco?

 

I'm being a bit facetious here, but Ricky is a good example why this is tricky business. Once you get beyond Scherzer (and I'm not a fan of Lester at all), I don't see much worth going all in after. I'd be fine dumping Millone for Scherzer, but I don't see the Twins doing this, and I'm not sure Max will want to come here, even though I really do think that the Twins could be competitive with a guy like Max and upgrade in LF and CF (along with normal improvement from the young guys).