Article: Three Overlooked Twins Prospects

[Boone]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3006-3-Twins-Prospects-Who-Have-Been-Much-Better-Than-Their-Numbers-Indicate

[clutterheart]

Did something change from the Rogers of 2013 and the Rogers of 2014?

 

In 2013 he was a college pitcher getting good results in a pitcher friendly High A environment but not getting strikeouts. In 2014 he is a pitcher getting poor results in a more neutral environment but getting a lot of strike outs.

[iTwins]

I keep waiting for Max Kepler's numbers to perk up. Like you mention, the secondary stuff is all solid - so his numbers SHOULD be better but they're just not there yet. I hope it's simply a combination of poor luck and a pitcher friendly league holding him back at the moment.

[gunnarthor]

I think Kepler can be a good player but it's a good reminder that he's going to go really slowly. He's going to need 2000 milb at bats.

[Steven Buhr]

Two excellent GO/AO ratios and huge ERA/FIP differences on the same team. So is the NB infield just a bunch of statues out there that let everything hit on the ground get by them?

[jokin]

Two excellent GO/AO ratios and huge ERA/FIP differences on the same team. So is the NB infield just a bunch of statues out there that let everything hit on the ground get by them?

 

Yeah, pretty suspect, I think. Sean Gilmartin's numbers confirm this, as well. His FIP is more than a full run below his ERA (2.36 vs 3.40) and his BABIP-IFB is at .379.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How is MiLB FiP evaluated? Does the metric adjust for the often clown-car-esque nature of MiLB defense?

 

If not, then I believe it's a pretty flawed metric.

[Boone]

Two excellent GO/AO ratios and huge ERA/FIP differences on the same team. So is the NB infield just a bunch of statues out there that let everything hit on the ground get by them?

 

There are 9 Rock Cats pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched and 6 of them are in the top 25 for highest BABIP (minimum of 20 innings pitched, 104 players qualify). This is a really large number, especially when you consider the fact that in the 12 team Eastern League, each team should have just 2 on average.

 

It seems unlikely that so many Rock Cats pitchers would be this unlucky so far. Almost surely a sign of poor defense, most likely in both the infield and the outfield.

[drivlikejehu]

How is MiLB FiP evaluated? Does the metric adjust for the often clown-car-esque nature of MiLB defense?

 

If not, then I believe it's a pretty flawed metric.

 

I don't think defense-independent metrics work for the minor leagues at all. Defense is an issue, but the larger issue is that the quality of pitching varies much more. There's a selection bias at work at the MLB level that allows for BABIP regression - only certain pitchers are good enough to be promoted to the Majors in the first place.

 

There are minor league pitchers that allow much harder contact than would be sustainable for a big leaguer. Using a metric like FIP overrates that player because it doesn't take that possibility into account. So when a prospect is getting bashed but has a decent FIP, I don't think bad luck, I think they are doing poorly.

[jokin]

I don't think defense-independent metrics work for the minor leagues at all. Defense is an issue, but the larger issue is that the quality of pitching varies much more. There's a selection bias at work at the MLB level that allows for BABIP regression - only certain pitchers are good enough to be promoted to the Majors in the first place.

 

There are minor league pitchers that allow much harder contact than would be sustainable for a big leaguer. Using a metric like FIP overrates that player because it doesn't take that possibility into account. So when a prospect is getting bashed but has a decent FIP, I don't think bad luck, I think they are doing poorly.

 

As what you said is true for pitchers- no argument about the number of AAAA pitchers scattered about, it's equally or more true for position players and the glovework. Defense, or lack thereof, is a huge issue in the minor leagues, and varies to wildly considerable degrees, as well- I don't think it justifies your minimization, but I can be persuaded if there's data to support your supposition.

 

As far as "unsustainable harder contact" for your reasoning, I'm seeing many guys in the system with falling, or already very low LD%'s and good GB%'s who are clearly being hurt with much higher ERAs and H/9, than their FIP's suggest they should be getting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think defense-independent metrics work for the minor leagues at all. Defense is an issue, but the larger issue is that the quality of pitching varies much more. There's a selection bias at work at the MLB level that allows for BABIP regression - only certain pitchers are good enough to be promoted to the Majors in the first place.

 

There are minor league pitchers that allow much harder contact than would be sustainable for a big leaguer. Using a metric like FIP overrates that player because it doesn't take that possibility into account. So when a prospect is getting bashed but has a decent FIP, I don't think bad luck, I think they are doing poorly.

 

Good take.

[2wins87]

Did something change from the Rogers of 2013 and the Rogers of 2014?

 

In 2013 he was a college pitcher getting good results in a pitcher friendly High A environment but not getting strikeouts. In 2014 he is a pitcher getting poor results in a more neutral environment but getting a lot of strike outs.

 

It's still early, but if anything he looks better. Baseball Reference has game logs for minor league guys now which include ground balls, flyballs, etc., so if you add up the columns you can calculate true ground ball rates, etc. as fangraphs does for major leaguers. These are more stable than the GO/AO ratio.

 

Rogers had a 55% ground ball rate on batted balls last year (which was, I believe, the main reason he was so successful despite having only an average strikeout rate). This year it's at 50%, but his strikeout rate has increased by the same amount from 16% to 21%. In addition his line drive rate has decreased from 19% to 14.5%.

 

It seems like some of the weak contact he was generating last year is turning into whiffs this year, while he hasn't been as lucky (his .286 BABIP was probably a bit low for a pitcher generating so many ground balls). The park probably depressed a bit of the run scoring against him last year also, as his homerun rate has doubled (though it's still not too high).

[drivlikejehu]

As far as "unsustainable harder contact" for your reasoning, I'm seeing many guys in the system with falling, or already very low LD%'s and good GB%'s who are clearly being hurt with much higher ERAs and H/9, than their FIP's suggest they should be getting.

 

A minor league pitcher can of course get unlucky - that's no different. The issue is the degree to which we can tell whether it was bad luck or just bad performance. Metrics like FIP are based on relationships measured at the Major League level, and aren't meant to account for the variations in the game found in the minors (and the minor leagues themselves vary quite a bit).

 

You are right that we can look beyond that to batted ball data, team data, and so on. But even then, there is a lot of noise involved with respect to any one pitcher. For a guy who is a giving up a lot of hits, the possibility exists that his 'true talent level' with respect to BABIP is poor. Another example would be HR/FB - something that tends to be fairly uniform at the MLB level, but that is variable in the minors and worth considering with a sufficient sample.

[2wins87]

I would agree that DIPS don't translate exactly to the minor league levels as the coefficients are based on regressions to major league rates. These rates surely vary from level to level, but the theory behind them remains pretty solid. You can't compare the numbers directly to major league numbers, but if you compare them to other guys in the same league they can be pretty useful.

 

I would also add that minor leaguers are often working on specific aspects of their game which is why results in general don't mean much without scouting reports to provide context or additional information.

[gunnarthor]

How is MiLB FiP evaluated? Does the metric adjust for the often clown-car-esque nature of MiLB defense?

 

If not, then I believe it's a pretty flawed metric.

 

KLaw was asked that in a chat question a week ago and he said he wouldn't use fip for minor leaguers.

[PseudoSABR]

I think Kepler can be a good player but it's a good reminder that he's going to go really slowly. He's going to need 2000 milb at bats.

Right. I was surprised they pushed him to the AFL, but that was probably to see if it was worth spending a roster space on him (rather than risking to him the Rule 5 draft). Kelpler still only has this year and two more before he's out of options, no? So there is a clock.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't know about Rogers. Salcedo, on the other hand, could be a pretty dominant reliever. And it is amazing that this guy is still this young.

 

Kepler is slowly coming around. I do kinda worry about stagnation for a full year once he hits AA.

[Shane Wahl]

Right. I was surprised they pushed him to the AFL, but that was probably to see if it was worth spending a roster space on him (rather than risking to him the Rule 5 draft). Kelpler still only has this year and two more before he's out of options, no? So there is a clock.

 

What's funny is that his showing in the AFL might have actually made him more attractive as a snatch up candidate for another team (still quite doubtful, unlike Polanco who was merely unlikely to be selected).

[Thegrin]

The problem with BABIP is that it does not distinguish between a weak grounder and popup from a smash grounder and a line drive. You use is to give us reason to be hopeful. Others have used it to show that a high average or power hitter, is in a lucky streak. Its one of that stats that you can use to be optimistic or pessimistic about a players future success.

[gunnarthor]

Right. I was surprised they pushed him to the AFL, but that was probably to see if it was worth spending a roster space on him (rather than risking to him the Rule 5 draft). Kelpler still only has this year and two more before he's out of options, no? So there is a clock.

I believe he has another option year as a small loophole for international signings put on the 40 man before a certain age. I forget the details but it came up when we were having those discussions.

[jokin]

What's funny is that his showing in the AFL might have actually made him more attractive as a snatch up candidate for another team (still quite doubtful, unlike Polanco who was merely unlikely to be selected).

 

Only Milwaukee (have stashed in the past), or Houston likely would have picked either one up. Although the odds were remote on both, it does appear the Twins either "knew" something, got played, or were either just a little over-defensive or over-optimistic.

[Seth Stohs]

Kepler signed at 16 from a country with very little baseball... I think 2000 Minor League plate appearances and plenty of patience should be assumed.

 

He also just missed about a week, maybe a little more, with strep throat, which certainly would not be good.

[jokin]

Kepler signed at 16 from a country with very little baseball... I think 2000 Minor League plate appearances and plenty of patience should be assumed.

 

He also just missed about a week, maybe a little more, with strep throat, which certainly would not be good.

 

Seth, I was wondering if you have heard any knowledgeable opinions (inside or outside the organization) on what to make of Kepler's performance so far this year? It seemed there were rumblings that he had supposedly turned the corner last season, and then obviously the Twins laid it out there with his roster addition. And here we are with him batting below expectations at the bottom of a depleted roster's batting order.