Article: Twins Minor League Report (4/23): Pitching Prowess

[tobi0040]

I think the Twins will give Pelfrey more time, only because of the financial investment, but that doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't make room for May and Meyer soon. But not in the rotation, Deduno should have the next spot, IMO.

 

I would like to see Meyer and May called up, but sent to the bullpen. The Cardinals almost ALWAYS do this with its young talented arms: Wainwright, Lynn, Wacha, kid named Carlos Martinez (BA's no.31 prospect). This serves two purposes: 1) Save some innings on their arms and 2) Success in small amounts can give them confidence at getting MLB hitters out.

I LOVE how the Cardinals trusted Michael Wacha last year in October. He had been great in the minors, but made him earn a rotation spot by being too good to keep in the bullpen any longer. Unleash Meyer and May soon in the mid-innings.

 

 

A downside exists with this. What if starting mid-game, not knowing if they will pitch that day, or starting mid-inning messes with their routine and results? Then you have confidence working the other way.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

August? Really? I can't understand why it is somehow acceptable to hold back your potentially best options to improve your team- both in 2014, and going forward from this season. Baltimore didn't do it with their best pitchers, and they were trying to win. Miami didn't do it, and they had/have no hope of winning.

 

Once multi-million dollar arbitration considerations have been dealt with prudently, it's inexcusable not to heed Middlebrooks' admonitions with regards to Meyer. Even Gardy wondered aloud in Spring Training on how foolish it would be not to have some kind of role for Meyer with the Twins, starter or not, if he continued performing as well as he did in March.

 

I'm less certain on May, but this is the year to get these 2 established in their major league careers going forward. And I'm not impressed with the argument that says that they should only be called up when it's certain that they will stick. Bouncing back and forth between the 2 levels is the norm, not the exception- it's simply a part of the maturation process.

 

 

 

Health-wise, there should always be caution. But I don'

t see how he has much left to prove in AAA. His health and pitching mechanics can be best managed with the major league club. His learning curve will also improve more efficiently while pitching in the major league setting. He can always go back to Rochester and work out his adjustments, if needed. Let's get his best and freshest (possibly limited) innings with the big club, maybe after just a few more starts in Rochester.

 

Yea, I agree, another few starts. I mean, he's made only 4 AAA starts. So I do think there are things left to prove. He pitched 5, 5.1, 3.2 and 6.2 innings. I'd like to see him get to 100 pitches in a start before he moves up. That would seem like a requirement for me, because 100+ pitches is my expectation for our "ace."

[jokin]

I'm really looking forward to seeing Meyer also but a little patience isn't a bad thing. He's had ONE great start, his previous start was a clunker & his overall stats are good but not great. I think giving him another 6 thru 10 starts isn't going to hurt & if he strings together a bunch of good/great starts they will have to find room for him.

 

I mean if we are going to promote everyone who had a good game at AAA recently we better find room for Parmelee, Bernier & Farris also.

 

Meyer has great stuff, obviously better than any of the current Twins starters but he still needs more than 4 starts at AAA before he should be called up. (IMHO)

 

When Parm, Bernier and Farris show the talent to be game-changers, they should get promoted, too. They don't, Meyer does. His stuff is more than great, though, it's elite. Yes, maybe more than 4 starts might be needed, but at this point, he may as well learn some of the finer points on the job with the Twins. As was pointed out in the article, 2 of his teammates made a simple pitching suggestion to add a 3 finger change-up- which he quickly employed in making it a dominant pitch. Imagine what kind of "tips" and other pitching advice he could get from major league teammates..

[halfchest]

I'm really looking forward to seeing Meyer also but a little patience isn't a bad thing. He's had ONE great start, his previous start was a clunker & his overall stats are good but not great. I think giving him another 6 thru 10 starts isn't going to hurt & if he strings together a bunch of good/great starts they will have to find room for him.

 

I mean if we are going to promote everyone who had a good game at AAA recently we better find room for Parmelee, Bernier & Farris also.

 

Meyer has great stuff, obviously better than any of the current Twins starters but he still needs more than 4 starts at AAA before he should be called up. (IMHO)

 

Exactly, let's not overreact from a couple good starts. Meyer has four total AAA starts and 70 innings in AA. Total of 220 innings in the minors (not counting Fall/Winter league). It's not like he's being held back. Had he been healthy all last year and put up 150 innings of 3.00 ERA and a K per IP then I think the Twins would have been more comfortable with considering him jumping straight to MLB. For now, I agree. Give the guys another month to figure it out, then make changes as needed after 5-6 more starts.

[jokin]

Yea, I agree, another few starts. I mean, he's made only 4 AAA starts. So I do think there are things left to prove. He pitched 5, 5.1, 3.2 and 6.2 innings. I'd like to see him get to 100 pitches in a start before he moves up. That would seem like a requirement for me, because 100+ pitches is my expectation for our "ace."

 

He had exactly 100 pitches this game. And I was watching the Gamecast last night....FWIW....the home plate ump wasn't giving him the outside lower corner strike, or his K totals could have been even more dominant. Something really clicked last night, against a good AAA team, hopefully this was the "light swtching to on"- for good.

[jokin]

Exactly, let's not overreact from a couple good starts. Meyer has four total AAA starts and 70 innings in AA. Total of 220 innings in the minors (not counting Fall/Winter league). It's not like he's being held back. Had he been healthy all last year and put up 150 innings of 3.00 ERA and a K per IP then I think the Twins would have been more comfortable with considering him jumping straight to MLB. For now, I agree. Give the guys another month to figure it out, then make changes as needed after 5-6 more starts.

 

I don't think anyone is over-reacting, a few more starts is fine. He's definitely figuring things out pretty quickly, and May is also a good story, building on his success from the AFL. Meyer has the less experience factor and the 6'9" inconsistent mechanics factor going against him. To me, Meyer should still be called up first, his stuff is already proven to be elite major league level, his biggest hurdles going forward can best be managed by being in a major league environment, not more "figuring it out" in Rochester.

[Yoshii]

Bring up May and Meyer now!!! Let Deduno transfer to SP. DFA Correia and Plefrey. Stick Nolasco in the pen.

 

I should be the GM for the twins. Short leash for everyone!!

[Intramural Legend]

August? Really? I can't understand why it is somehow acceptable to hold back your potentially best options to improve your team- both in 2014, and going forward from this season. Baltimore didn't do it with their best pitchers, and they were trying to win. Miami didn't do it, and they had/have no hope of winning.

 

I bet 6 years from now, when Miami is trading away any semblance of talent, the fans will really lean back on the fact that they saw their all-stars nearly keep their team close to .500 ball 6 years previous

[Shane Wahl]

Also...this GREAT quote from Red Sox's 3B Will Middlebrooks, who was making a rehab start against Rochester tonight...

 

 

"I asked a coach, 'Who'd he make mad? Why is he here? Are there five guys better than him in Minnesota," Middlebrooks told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140423&content_id=73159192&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

 

Nice job finding that. Inquiring minds would like to know, Will. Indeed.

[Shane Wahl]

Meyer is likely on an innings limit.....you want 80% of his starts in AAA, or up here? I guess if all they care about is the future, and not this year, you can hold him down for another year of control.

 

The Twins made a mistake with Gibson last year and are headed down the same road this year with Meyer. It would be very nice to limit him to X number of pitches per start in AAA and give him a few more so that he can pitch 60+ for the Twins and still hit his limit (130 or 140).

[Shane Wahl]

I think the Twins will give Pelfrey more time, only because of the financial investment, but that doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't make room for May and Meyer soon. But not in the rotation, Deduno should have the next spot, IMO.

 

I would like to see Meyer and May called up, but sent to the bullpen. The Cardinals almost ALWAYS do this with its young talented arms: Wainwright, Lynn, Wacha, kid named Carlos Martinez (BA's no.31 prospect). This serves two purposes: 1) Save some innings on their arms and 2) Success in small amounts can give them confidence at getting MLB hitters out.

I LOVE how the Cardinals trusted Michael Wacha last year in October. He had been great in the minors, but made him earn a rotation spot by being too good to keep in the bullpen any longer. Unleash Meyer and May soon in the mid-innings.

 

Actually, ok, I like this idea. Burton, Correia, and Pelfrey are three guys to be replaced at some point this year with Deduno, Meyer, and May.

[Steve Lein]

 

Super 2 could very well not factor in here. If Meyer performs to the level we all expect and hope to see, his arb years will be bought out during or after his second major league year.

 

Agree, though I wouldn't describe that as the reason for him not being on the team now, in relation to Meyer.

 

But this is my least favorite argument ever for the types of prospects that Buxton, Sano, and Meyer are (e.g.: Elite) in regards to making an MLB debut and starting service time at the beginning of a season. It is absolutely unfathomable to me that if you have a guy ready for the big leagues, who obviously is going to help and IMPROVE your team right out of the gate, that you stash him in the minors for a few months. On a potential contending team, that could be the difference between making the playoffs and just missing at the end of the season.

 

For guys like this, it's very likely they have good to great success in their first years up in the bigs, and if/when Super 2 would even come into play, smart teams should be looking to buy out that year, the rest of their arbitration years, and even a year or two of free agency.

 

Did Mike Trout ever have an arbitration contract? No.

 

Did Clayton Kershaw ever have an arbitration contract? No.

 

Did Joe Mauer ever have an arbitration contract? No.

 

Did Andrew McCutchen ever have an arbitration contract? No.

 

Did... I could go on and on and on and on.

 

I've heard people attempt to make the "Well, the guy has to want to sign that contract though..."

 

Well, I then ask them to tell me about someone who didn't (provided the contract offer was reasonable), and decided to go year-to-year through those team control seasons, and nobody has been able to give me a single name that I would classify as an "elite" prospect type, who did this. They are potentially risking a lot of guaranteed money if they pass it up.

 

Hate, hate, hate the super-2 argument in relation to potential cornerstone up-and-comers.

[halfchest]

I don't think anyone is over-reacting, a few more starts is fine. He's definitely figuring things out pretty quickly, and May is also a good story, building on his success from the AFL. Meyer has the less experience factor and the 6'9" inconsistent mechanics factor going against him. To me, Meyer should still be called up first, his stuff is already proven to be elite major league level, his biggest hurdles going forward can best be managed by being in a major league environment, not more "figuring it out" in Rochester.

 

Ok, maybe not "figure it out" but "prove it" would be a better choice of words. I like that he has major league stuff but I'd still like to see a few more starts. I guess one really great start does not make me think, let's promote him immediately and cut another starter. So I guess I see it as an overreaction to immediately cry foul for not promoting him. That said, I think most agree that if he can keep it up for another 4-6 starts and Pelfrey continues to struggle then it's time to make the move.

[PseudoSABR]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 4m

Alex Meyer had always reluctantly thrown a circle change. Deolis Guerra showed him 3-finger version and results were immediate. #mntwins

[cmathewson]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 6m Alex Meyer had always reluctantly thrown a circle change. Deolis Guerra showed him 3-finger version and results were immediate. #mntwins

[cmathewson]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino

4m

Alex Meyer had always reluctantly thrown a circle change. Deolis Guerra showed him 3-finger version and results were immediate. #mntwins

 

Jinx!

[golfboy1]

The Twins made a mistake with Gibson last year and are headed down the same road this year with Meyer. It would be very nice to limit him to X number of pitches per start in AAA and give him a few more so that he can pitch 60+ for the Twins and still hit his limit (130 or 140).

 

What mistake did the Twins make with Gibson last year? He didn't exactly lit it up after he made his ML debut last year.

 

Comparing what Miami did with Fernandez & Meyer with the Twins is not a good example. For starters, Fernandez is a far superior prospect who was able to jump levels without missing a beat better than almost anyone since Dwight Gooden. Meyers is a great talent but he is ranked anywhere from the 12th to the 22nd best starting pitcher in the minors. That's still talented but not quite the same. IMHO

 

Miami lost 100 games with Fernandez, will probably lose a bunch more this year & in another few years he will become too expensive for them to keep so he will be traded away.

 

Would it have really affected their season last year if he had been kept down long enough to retain 1 extra year of service?

[Mike Sixel]

I keep reading I shouldn't care if prospects get to AAA quickly, because AAA doesn't matter. Now I read that Meyer doesn't have enough AAA starts to get promoted. So, which is it? It doesn't matter how fast they promote at lower levels because you can be promoted to the majors from AA, or it matters how many AAA starts a player has?

 

Which is it?

[DJL44]

That might be Deolis Guerra's most important contribution to the organization. I'm fine with giving Meyer a few starts in AAA to prove he knows how to control his new changeup.

[halfchest]

I keep reading I shouldn't care if prospects get to AAA quickly, because AAA doesn't matter. Now I read that Meyer doesn't have enough AAA starts to get promoted. So, which is it? It doesn't matter how fast they promote at lower levels because you can be promoted to the majors from AA, or it matters how many AAA starts a player has?

 

Which is it?

 

I think specifically with Meyer, it's the fact that he only had a half year or so at AA in addition to only a few starts at AAA. I don't think anyone is lobbying to keep him down there until September but just that it's not ridiculous to give him a few more starts as well as Pelfrey a few more to get things right. As others have pointed out, this is one great start, a clunker, and two good starts for Meyer at AAA. He's still only averaging 5 innings pitched although he may have been stretching out over those starts. I'm not sure of his total pitch count other than he hit 100 this last game. My argument is I don't think Meyer is the difference between contending for a playoff spot this year. I don't see a rush to bring him up and I don't think 4 starts is enough to prove himself or for the current starters to disprove themselves. If he were called up today, I wouldn't complain but I also don't have any issue with him staying down for a few more starts. Too early to cut bait on current guys IMO and a few more minor league innings couldn't hurt.

[Steven Buhr]

 

Super 2 could very well not factor in here. If Meyer performs to the level we all expect and hope to see, his arb years will be bought out during or after his second major league year.

 

Not so sure that's the case if he's a Boras client. Not saying it couldn't happen, but have to think it's less likely than if he were represented by someone else.

[ericchri]

My argument is I don't think Meyer is the difference between contending for a playoff spot this year.

 

Interestingly, I think that's probably where we might be getting with this debate. Is it incredibly far-fetched to think Meyer or Deduno might pitch enough better than Pelfrey or Correia the rest of the way to allow us to win 2 games we would have otherwise lost? Okay, make those two switches and take that 81-81 team we're currently heading for and turn it into a 85-77 team. How close is that to the playoffs? Obviously I can't say that would happen, but the longer this team hovers around .500, the more impetus there should be to get your best players on the field. You just don't know what will happen. Meyer could be the difference. Is it likely? Baseball's a strange game, I'd say it's at least possible.

[Mike Sixel]

Meyer alone might not be the delta, but what if Fuld, Meyer, May, Tonkin are? What if, instead of holding them all down on an individual case.....you promoted your best playerS, and got 1 win more from 4-6 of them.....Every AWFUL start by Pelfrey makes it LESS likely Meyer does make a difference.

 

In 2012, the Angels kept Trout down for 6 weeks, to save money or whatever, and missed the playoffs by 4 games........and then signed him this year to an extension that bought out all those years.....what if they had him up at the beginning of that year?

[halfchest]

Interestingly, I think that's probably where we might be getting with this debate. Is it incredibly far-fetched to think Meyer or Deduno might pitch enough better than Pelfrey or Correia the rest of the way to allow us to win 2 games we would have otherwise lost? Okay, make those two switches and take that 81-81 team we're currently heading for and turn it into a 85-77 team. How close is that to the playoffs? Obviously I can't say that would happen, but the longer this team hovers around .500, the more impetus there should be to get your best players on the field. You just don't know what will happen. Meyer could be the difference. Is it likely? Baseball's a strange game, I'd say it's at least possible.

 

Good point for sure. I guess I dont' know that this team will keep it up currently so maybe I'm a pessimist and view the team as going from a 75 win team to maybe an 78-82 win team with the moves you mentioned. It's hard without a crystal ball to predict the future. Being crazy optimistic for a moment though it is exciting. This offense is scoring and we barely got a glimpse of Willy and Arcia. Mauer hasn't started clicking yet and I'm confident he will. The flipside is that maybe Plouffe, Pinto, Colabello and even Dozier to some extent are due to regress a bit?? That's a whole other argument though.

 

So yah, I get it. I'm fine with Meyer having to prove it for a few more weeks (4-6 starts) and giving Pelfrey a few more to work it out. If we get to the end of May and something hasn't changed and Meyer or May is still performing like this. Then yes, time to pull the trigger for sure. If the called up either one of them within the next week, I wouldn't complain about that either.

[jokin]

I bet 6 years from now, when Miami is trading away any semblance of talent, the fans will really lean back on the fact that they saw their all-stars nearly keep their team close to .500 ball 6 years previous

 

Or, maybe with just the addition of a couple more Free Agents, and the Marlins will add a couple more World Series wins to the 2 they already have, over the next 6 years. The club has a rich history, unlike the Twins, of going all in when they think the time is right. How many World Series championships do the Twins have since 1997 again? The team you disparage, with much less going for it financially, has 2. And given their current talented core and more coming in their pipeline, they'll likely have 2 more before the Twins get their next one. Seems just as plausible a scenario as the one you lay out.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm confused, we should hold it against Miami that they bring up their players and have All Stars? What does that have to do with what they do with them after that? They develop and bring up players quickly, and it seems to work (see WS championships). The fact that they then do stuff people don't like, well, too bad. Also, trading all those old guys 2 years ago SPED up their reloading.....and now they are ahead of the Twins again, in terms of being young and talented (the Twins are actually on the old side of MLB teams).

[tobi0040]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 6m Alex Meyer had always reluctantly thrown a circle change. Deolis Guerra showed him 3-finger version and results were immediate. #mntwins

 

His fastball is obviously plus. His slider is above average. If he develops an average change, this kid is going to be a monster.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see Meyer playing in Minnesota at all this year unless there's a trade/injury. Part of that is that he is on a limit. Part is that he hasn't pitched a whole lot in the high minors. And the biggest part is that there are lots of guys under contract. If this team finds itself in a pennant race and Pelfrey is sucking it up once every 5 starts, perhaps. But Meyer will most likely stay in AAA this offseason.

[Guest]

Many comments seem to miss the simple point made by Middlebrooks: Meyer is one of the five starting pitchers that give the Twins the best chance to win games NOW.

 

Not bringing him up now, because of some future event that could happen after he turns 30, is just trying to have things both ways, which means neither way. In other words, not bringing him up means that the best players are not here now. Not having the best players here now means not trying to win as many games as possible now. If the team is not trying to win as many games as possible now, even if it is for some rational purpose like planning for the future, other decisions that seem to have been based on winning now make less sense.

 

By the way, while worrying about some chance of losing him if he becomes too expensive in 2020, which is a risk only if he becomes a star, a larger worry is that every inning he throws means another inning closer to a possible elbow injury and another inning closer to losing some of his velocity, which are risks that nearly every pitcher faces. Those risks could materialize much sooner than 2020 and may be more likely. There's a limited shelf life on pitchers. In addition to the question raised by Middlebrooks, the other question for Meyer is whether his good innings are spent in the minors or in the majors.

[Jim H]

I think everyone is missing the point. What the Twins should be/probably are trying to do is what is best for Meyer in both the shortterm and longterm. He maybe a special talent, but it doesn't matter really, if he is better right now than some of the current starters, what should matter is getting that special talent developed in the best way possible.

 

Clearly, the Twins told him that one way to improve himself and make him more effective at the major league level was to work on his changeup. So he changes his grip and comes up with(maybe) an effective changeup that he has thrown maybe 20 times in an actual game. The minors is the place where you be should experimenting with new grips or new pitches. I think this is the right approach. Bringing him to the majors before he is comfortable with his new pitch, would likely mean he would avoid using it, making it largely a useless pitch.

 

Here's my point, I think Meyer's development should trump most other considerations. If it appears he needs more time to get consistent with his mechanics, work on his secondary pitches and whatever else he might need to work on, let it be in the minors. I don't expect him to be a finished product when he is promoted to the majors, but a little more polish might reduce some possible struggles and allow him to work through them a little easier.

 

There are differing thoughts on this, some people even major league organizations, often want to get prospects to the majors as quickly as possible. The thought seems to be that nearly everyone will struggle with the majors to one degree or other, so get them to the majors and let them work it out. I believe that route can sometimes actually hold back development. A prospect will try to do what has always worked, and maybe reluctant to try things that will eventually make him a better player. As I suggested above, the minors should be about trying new things in a less demanding environment. Development takes a back seat to performance at the major league level.

 

I have no idea when Meyer should be promoted to the majors. Right now, both Darnell and May have pitched better than Meyer if you look at their total performance so far, not just one game. So it isn't like Meyer has established that he is for sure, no doubt about it, reaady for the majors or even if he is the one who should be promoted. What I think will happen is that when Meyer(and probably May or Darnell as well) show enough in AAA the Twins will find a way to get them to the majors. Maybe he or they will spend some time in the bullpen. More likely, the Twins will open a spot in the rotation, if it doesn't open itself thru poor performance.