Potential pitching changes

[tobi0040]

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

 

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.

 

May was really penalized by two bad starts last year. He gave up 0, 1, 2, or 3 ER in 14 of his 28 starts. If you take out his best two and worst two starts, he had a 4.15 ERA in the other 24 with over a k per inning. It is not lets get him up here right now but it is certainly not below average.

[drivlikejehu]

May was really penalized by two bad starts last year. He gave up 0, 1, 2, or 3 ER in 14 of his 28 starts. If you take out his best two and worst two starts, he had a 4.15 ERA in the other 24 with over a k per inning. It is not lets get him up here right now but it is certainly not below average.

 

Actually that is still a subpar ERA. The Eastern League average last year was around 4.00. And giving up more than 3 ER in 50% of AA starts is pretty terrible.

 

Look, it would be great if something clicked with May and he became a #3/4 starter or whatever. The Twins desperately need it. The chances are just really low. He has the stuff and command of a reliever.

[nicksaviking]

His two main pitches are a straight fastball that gets few groundballs, and a breaking ball that fools minor leaguers a lot more than it's going to fool big leaguers.

 

To put things in perspective - May is a more extreme flyball pitcher than Phil Hughes. Without making some adjustments I don't see how he can be an MLB starter.

 

 

Flyball pitchers are getting a bad rap these days. I'm not sure why, history's best pitchers were all flyball pitchers. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/33991/bill-james-doesnt-like-groundball-pitchers

 

Even if Bill James is wrong, who would want a groundball pitcher with this infield defense?

 

If his breaking ball ends up being subpar at the MLB level, sure we have a problem, but I'm not sure why you jump to that conclusion now.

[blindeke]

The season is WAY too young to make any changes. Gibson has looked phenomenol, despite being squeezed by every umpire calling his games so far.

 

Again today, vs. the Rays, Gibson threw a couple excellent 2-strike pitches that were right on the corner and the ump didn't give them to him. I feel like a loser (i.e. White Sox fan) for saying this, but for some reason Gibson doesn't seem to get the close pitches called his way!

[tobi0040]

Actually that is still a subpar ERA. The Eastern League average last year was around 4.00. And giving up more than 3 ER in 50% of AA starts is pretty terrible.

 

Look, it would be great if something clicked with May and he became a #3/4 starter or whatever. The Twins desperately need it. The chances are just really low. He has the stuff and command of a reliever.

 

I just double checked, it was 0, 1, or 2 runs in 14 of his starts. He had 4 starts with 3 ER, so he gave up more than 3 ER in 10 of 28. His 171 K in 165 IP is certainly well above average. His 10.6 K per 9 in the minors as a whole is certainly above average as well.

[cmathewson]

His two main pitches are a straight fastball that gets few groundballs, and a breaking ball that fools minor leaguers a lot more than it's going to fool big leaguers.

 

To put things in perspective - May is a more extreme flyball pitcher than Phil Hughes. Without making some adjustments I don't see how he can be an MLB starter.

 

His best pitch is the change-up that fools a lot of guys, more than a guy per inning, most of them swinging. True, his breaking pitch is nothing special, but he throws it less than 5% of the time.

[cmathewson]

May spent the past 2 years being a below average AA pitcher. And he wasn't really young for the league or anything, he's just is an extreme flyball pitcher who walked a lot of guys.

 

Three starts isn't enough to know if his control is really better. And even if it is, his overall profile is not overly encouraging.

 

This is what bugs me about these so-called analysts like K-Law. They watch a guy throw on the side and they think they know everything about the guy. K-Law visited the Twins spring training complex and saw May warming up and struggling to throw his fastball where he wanted. Based on 10 minutes of warm-ups, he tweets "I don't know if May will every be a major league pitcher. He only has two viable pitches--the straight fastball and a breaking ball--and only one of them is potential major league pitch." He didn't even watch him in one game, nor did he look at the numbers or scouting reports. Now every guy who has read K-Law thinks he's an expert on Trevor May.

[drivlikejehu]

This is what bugs me about these so-called analysts like K-Law. They watch a guy throw on the side and they think they know everything about the guy. K-Law visited the Twins spring training complex and saw May warming up and struggling to throw his fastball where he wanted. Based on 10 minutes of warm-ups, he tweets "I don't know if May will every be a major league pitcher. He only has two viable pitches--the straight fastball and a breaking ball--and only one of them is potential major league pitch." He didn't even watch him in one game, nor did he look at the numbers or scouting reports. Now every guy who has read K-Law thinks he's an expert on Trevor May.

 

May has been a name for years in prospect discussions. Just as a random example, here is a December 2009 Hardball Times blurb on him:

 

"6. Trevor May: May sports a low-90s fastball with strong movement and an average curveball that could grow into his out pitch. Just 20 years old with impressive strikeout numbers in the Sally League, the 6-foot-5 May has room to grow but much to learn when it comes to locating his arsenal."

 

If people are wrong about May, it's not because of a random 2014 Keith Law quote. May has had skeptics since before he was even drafted. So unfortunately the narrative you came up with is completely wrong.

 

Edited to add:

 

Here is a Phillies' fan site scouting report on him from 2012:

 

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/10/17/fall-from-ace-scouting-trevor-may/

 

And a scouting report from 2010:

 

http://rotoscouting.com/trevor-may-scouting-report-2010/

[cmathewson]

May has been a name for years in prospect discussions. Just as a random example, here is a December 2009 Hardball Times blurb on him:

 

"6. Trevor May: May sports a low-90s fastball with strong movement and an average curveball that could grow into his out pitch. Just 20 years old with impressive strikeout numbers in the Sally League, the 6-foot-5 May has room to grow but much to learn when it comes to locating his arsenal."

 

If people are wrong about May, it's not because of a random 2014 Keith Law quote. May has had skeptics since before he was even drafted. So unfortunately the narrative you came up with is completely wrong.

 

Edited to add:

 

Here is a Phillies' fan site scouting report on him from 2012:

 

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/10/17/fall-from-ace-scouting-trevor-may/

 

And a scouting report from 2010:

 

http://rotoscouting.com/trevor-may-scouting-report-2010/

 

I just found it interesting that your argument about May being not much of a prospect was almost an exact quote of something K-Law tweeted a couple of months ago. Perhaps it's a coincidence. But you have to ignore some gaudy strike-out numbers and you can't have watched him pitch for any length of time to have K-Law's perspective. Not even mentioning his best pitch is a dead give-away.

[drivlikejehu]

I just found it interesting that your argument about May being not much of a prospect was almost an exact quote of something K-Law tweeted a couple of months ago. Perhaps it's a coincidence. But you have to ignore some gaudy strike-out numbers and you can't have watched him pitch for any length of time to have K-Law's perspective. Not even mentioning his best pitch is a dead give-away.

 

Again, that's plainly wrong. He had 182 strikeouts in 2010 - a huge number that no one "ignored," but the scouting reports on him have always expressed reservations regarding his fastball, offspeed stuff, and command. Minor league numbers do not always translate to the Majors, something any prospect watcher should know.

 

If May now has a plus changeup, it's a very new development. He didn't have a good one last year or at any time before then. I didn't see any talk about it in Spring Training. When exactly did he master the pitch, and does any objective support for your assertion exist?

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, KLAW is a "so called" analyst....former scout, worked in a front office, flies all over the country to watch players in person, and has contacts all over baseball, but he's a "so called" analyst. Sheesh.

[Winston Smith]

This is what bugs me about these so-called analysts like K-Law. They watch a guy throw on the side and they think they know everything about the guy. K-Law visited the Twins spring training complex and saw May warming up and struggling to throw his fastball where he wanted. Based on 10 minutes of warm-ups, he tweets "I don't know if May will every be a major league pitcher. He only has two viable pitches--the straight fastball and a breaking ball--and only one of them is potential major league pitch." He didn't even watch him in one game, nor did he look at the numbers or scouting reports. Now every guy who has read K-Law thinks he's an expert on Trevor May.

 

How many games have you seen May pitch in person?

[Thrylos]

If May now has a plus changeup, it's a very new development. He didn't have a good one last year or at any time before then. I didn't see any talk about it in Spring Training. When exactly did he master the pitch, and does any objective support for your assertion exist?

 

Baseball America Objective enough? According to them, based on his 2013 season he has the best changeup in the organization.

 

Nothing new there about this changeup. Recent (in the Twins' organization) but not new...

[drivlikejehu]

Baseball America Objective enough? According to them, based on his 2013 season he has the best changeup in the organization.

 

Nothing new there about this changeup. Recent (in the Twins' organization) but not new...

 

Taylor Rogers is also on the "best of" list. So what? That has as more to do with other arms in the system than anything. Is there a scouting report or video somewhere that talks about this great changeup that nonetheless wasn't enough to keep AA hitters from frequently bashing him?

[cmathewson]

How many games have you seen May pitch in person?

 

Two.

[cmathewson]

Taylor Rogers is also on the "best of" list. So what? That has as more to do with other arms in the system than anything. Is there a scouting report or video somewhere that talks about this great changeup that nonetheless wasn't enough to keep AA hitters from frequently bashing him?

 

http://philliesnation.com/archives/2012/03/prospect-nation-2012-1-rhp-trevor-may/

 

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2013/11/03/minnesota-twinsights-terry-ryan-breaks-down-trevor-mays-changeup/

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/

 

 

http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2587

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140420&content_id=72780026&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

[cmathewson]

Ya, KLAW is a "so called" analyst....former scout, worked in a front office, flies all over the country to watch players in person, and has contacts all over baseball, but he's a "so called" analyst. Sheesh.

 

Credentials can work both ways. If he thinks he can look at a guy in a side piece and determine that he'll never make it, he's way overconfident.

[Mr. Brooks]

Credentials can work both ways. If he thinks he can look at a guy in a side piece and determine that he'll never make it, he's way overconfident.

 

And Law would never make that argument off that info ALONE.

Law gets asked questions similar to this all the time in his chats, and he explains that he has contacts that see these guys more than he does who he trusts.

[cmathewson]

And Law would never make that argument off that info ALONE.

Law gets asked questions similar to this all the time in his chats, and he explains that he has contacts that see these guys more than he does who he trusts.

 

If so, that tweet did not represent what had gone on for at least a year. Numbers don't lie. You don't lead the league in strikeouts three years in a row and have no chance at the majors.

[Mr. Brooks]

If so, that tweet did not represent what had gone on for at least a year. Numbers don't lie. You don't lead the league in strikeouts three years in a row and have no chance at the majors.

 

By "major league pitcher" I'm guessing he meant he doesn't think he'll be successful, not that he won't get a shot.

The great part about sports is we eventually get to see how it plays out!

[raindog]

These amateur scouting reports are fun an all, but I'm gonna trust the numbers. If May continues to have some semblance of control, he's a damn good prospect. Three starts doesn't prove anything, but his K/BB ratio is very encouraging thus far.

[kab21]

If so, that tweet did not represent what had gone on for at least a year. Numbers don't lie. You don't lead the league in strikeouts three years in a row and have no chance at the majors.

 

David Bromberg didn't get a chance despite easily leading the Midwest league and the FSL in K's. Leading a league in K's means that the player was healthy, didn't get promoted and can strikeout hitters. You will notice that Bromberg and May were also in the top 3 in BB's during those years.

 

There's no doubt that he's a prospect but he's not a great one. He is imo as ready as he'll ever be though. Obviously he can refine and improve his game but we're talking about a 24 yr old with 700 MiLB innings.

 

I also don't understand why everyone has been obsessed with this Keith Law quote. As pointed out earlier almost every scouting report has been saying these things forever.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't be surprised if May's career follows that of Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco was a K heavy pitcher with some control issues as well. He was very frustrating to follow when he first came up. I like May, but I suspect he's going to have some struggles in the majors. I think he's trending in the right direction, but I suspect his learning curve will be a bit more difficult.

[oldguy10]

Why is May apparently only being considered as a starter? Perhaps he would best be used as a reliever and to me there is nothing wrong with that. All teams need decent relief pitchers so if any prospect fails as a starter but can pitche well in relief why not go that route?