Placement of 2013 Draft Picks

[jay]

From KLaw's insider article:

"Top-15 picks like Kohl Stewart (Twins/Cedar Rapids), Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire (both Pirates/West Virginia), Trey Ball (Red Sox/Greenville) and Dominic Smith (Mets/Savannah) will begin their year in low Class A, while other first-round picks like Clint Frazier (Indians), Nick Ciuffo (Rays) and Ian Clarkin (Yankees) will begin their years in extended spring training."

 

So, Stewart is right in line with his fellow draftmates. From the year before, Buxton is (for all realistic purposes) at AA. The Twins catch a lot of guff about moving prospects slowly, but it feels more and more like myth than fact.

[gunnarthor]

From KLaw's insider article:

"Top-15 picks like Kohl Stewart (Twins/Cedar Rapids), Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire (both Pirates/West Virginia), Trey Ball (Red Sox/Greenville) and Dominic Smith (Mets/Savannah) will begin their year in low Class A, while other first-round picks like Clint Frazier (Indians), Nick Ciuffo (Rays) and Ian Clarkin (Yankees) will begin their years in extended spring training."

 

So, Stewart is right in line with his fellow draftmates. From the year before, Buxton is (for all realistic purposes) at AA. The Twins catch a lot of guff about moving prospects slowly, but it feels more and more like myth than fact.

 

Part of the reason for the "Twins promote slowly" narrative is because, for many years, they had to stick with minor leaguers and not free agents to plug holes (Blackburn's rookie season he was 26, for instance). But they've generally had their better players up early.

[kab21]

The biggest reason for the myth is that most of the Twins early round prospects performed poorly or met expectations. There just aren't many cases of a prospect making a case of 'you need to promote me'. Arcia is an example of a prospect who did this and he flew through the system.

[big dog]

The biggest reason for the myth is that most of the Twins early round prospects performed poorly or met expectations. There just aren't many cases of a prospect making a case of 'you need to promote me'. Arcia is an example of a prospect who did this and he flew through the system.

 

That's a good point- a lot of top prospects weren't promoted quickly because they didn't deserve it, not because the Twins were being conservative.

[jay]

Arcia is an example of a prospect who did this and he flew through the system.

 

Likewise for Buxton (thus far), Gibson (pre-injury), Garza, and others who performed.

 

Where's the dissenting opinion that we hear so often?

[Mike Sixel]

Hey, I admit I was wrong before. The issue was that they were bad at drafting, not slow at promoting. Let's hope Buxton and Stewart go fast, because this team needs help, badly.

[nicksaviking]

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.

[jay]

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.

 

Hard to say. I can't think of any examples that produced at a level that really demanded to be promoted out of single-A earlier. Even if so, that is probably balanced out by the willingness to move guys quickly through double-A and even skip AAA completely that has existed for quite a while.

[jay]

You probably have a valid point about a misperception among fans though.

 

I think it's fair to say a lot of people perceive the time progression of a prospect through each of the levels as equivalent. The Twins seem to execute that as more of a downward sloping line -- more time in the lower levels, less in the higher levels (where warranted).

[drivlikejehu]

BP did a study of prospect promotions a few years back. The Twins were clearly on the conservative side, particularly with respect to pitchers.

[jay]

Link?

[jay]

Found it: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

 

You could just as well use that data to show how it highlights the Twins poor drafts, that the college guys in particular from that window didn't advance as quickly as hoped, or that there was a focus on HS guys who need more MiLB ABs. Especially given the first point, this 5 year window doesn't prove much.

 

The lack of rookies entering the league from 2005-2009 and turning into impact players is a big part of how we ended up with 2011-present.

[tobi0040]

Found it: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

 

You could just as well use that data to show how it highlights the Twins poor drafts, that the college guys in particular from that window didn't advance as quickly as hoped, or that there was a focus on HS guys who need more MiLB ABs. Especially given the first point, this 5 year window doesn't prove much.

 

The lack of rookies entering the league from 2005-2009 and turning into impact players is a big part of how we ended up with 2011-present.

 

I agree, this is a chicken and egg thing. With regard to Stewart and the comps, all those guys were drafted behind him.

[clutterheart]

Mark Appel is in high A

Gray and Bryant are in AA.

Its not really a fair comparison as those are college guys but interesting to note.

 

Bryant looks to be the class of this draft so far. Wow he can hit.

[clutterheart]

Hhh

[Seth Stohs]

Mark Appel is in high A

Gray and Bryant are in AA.

Its not really a fair comparison as those are college guys but interesting to note.

 

Bryant looks to be the class of this draft so far. Wow he can hit.

 

It's no comparison at all.

 

Those are Top 5 picks out of college (4 years of college in Appel's case). In theory, that puts Kohl Stewart about 2-3 levels ahead of their pace.

[Seth Stohs]

Honestly, it has to be a case-by-case things. There are, in all things baseball, no absolutes. Buxton and Stewart are being promoted quickly because they are Top 4, elite talents. late-first round picks are a step below. Someone like Gonsalves, if he as a fourth rounder were to get promoted to Cedar Rapids, that would be very fast.

 

Brian Gilbert, a 7th round pick last year out of college, is at Ft. Myers.

 

I think we worry way too much about this. The goal is to get them to the big leagues, not to get them there as fast as possible.

 

Think it would have been better if they had started Levi Michael in the Midwest League?I'm sure there are examples to show whatever.

[Thrylos]

The last couple of seasons the Twins have been more aggressive in both promoting and cutting players. I suspect that the change in Minor League Director had something to do with this.

[gunnarthor]

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.

 

One other thing that is helping is the moved up signing deadline that lets draft picks get time in the year they were drafted. Huge help.

[nicksaviking]

It's no comparison at all.

 

Those are Top 5 picks out of college (4 years of college in Appel's case). In theory, that puts Kohl Stewart about 2-3 levels ahead of their pace.

 

Thats true but Eades and Slegers were I think only two of ten healthy college pitchers picked in the first five rounds that didn't even make it out of rookie league. Some teams appear to not even bother putting these types of pitchers in rookie ball at all.

 

Im not making any judgment about this strategy, but there are still comps available that indicate the Twins are still on the conversative side.

[Seth Stohs]

One other thing that is helping is the moved up signing deadline that lets draft picks get time in the year they were drafted. Huge help.

 

This is absolutely 100% true. For a few years there, most were waiting until the last second to sign and didn't debut until the following year. Nice to have that first two months during the year they're drafted just to catch their bearings in the pro life.

[Seth Stohs]

Thats true but Eades and Slegers were I think only two of ten healthy college pitchers picked in the first five rounds that didn't even make it out of rookie league. Some teams appear to not even bother putting these types of pitchers in rookie ball at all.

 

Im not making any judgment about this strategy, but there are still comps available that indicate the Twins are still on the conversative side.

 

There is a strategy there though... College starting pitchers have been throwing since January, so they want to keep their innings down so they work in the bullpen. They're adjusting to life in professional baseball. Travel, getting paid, paying bills, having a job, all that goes into it.

 

Now, in the last two years, the Twins have had several college pitchers work in the bullpen of the Snappers/Kernels. Last year, Brian Gilbert and Brandon Bixler did. The year before, Taylor Rogers, DJ Baxendale and Zack Jones did. Tyler Duffey joined them for the playoffs.

 

In 2005, Matt Garza moved up. There are generally 2-3 each year who do that.They just aren't always the top guys. Again, Eades pitched at LSU, and their season starts early. Slegers pitched at Indiana, and they started at the same time and went to the college world series.

[kab21]

I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.

 

I also can't think of a HS age draft pick or int'l prospect that made a good case to be promoted. Moses, Plouffe, Parmelee, Hicks, Sanchez, Morales, Benson, etc... To get a promotion the prospect needs to perform and for the most part Twins prospects didn't do much for almost a decade.

 

The only one that I can remotely think of is Revere but I think he got hurt in the 2nd half of his Beloit season.

[Mike Sixel]

Always a reason or excuse.....all I know is their strategy has not worked well in around seven years.....they need to do something(s) differently, or just keep being awful I guess.

[Major League Ready]

Always a reason or excuse.....all I know is their strategy has not worked well in around seven years.....they need to do something(s) differently, or just keep being awful I guess.

 

What? No doubt, our organization failed to draft and develop talent for roughly 5 years. Had that not changed you would have good reason to complain about our minor league system but we now have a farm system among the best and possibly the best system in all of baseball. They are drafting power arms and their international signings look very good. Sorry, IMO, this is complacency for the sake of complacency.

[Mike Sixel]

They do have a great farm system. Which, due to two bad things happening, failed, once again, to graduate a player to the majors so far this year. Their first best OF in AAA isn't even a real OF. They have two guys ready, probably, to help this year. But one is on an innings limit, and the other is a relief pitcher. I get it. They are stacked with good/great prospects, but you know what, not one of them made the roster this year. And the team isn't exactly stacked with good young players right now either.

[gunnarthor]

Always a reason or excuse.....all I know is their strategy has not worked well in around seven years.....they need to do something(s) differently, or just keep being awful I guess.

 

Well, they did change strategy when Ryan left and Smith and Johnson took over GM and the draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, they did change strategy when Ryan left and Smith and Johnson took over GM and the draft.

 

In the draft that appears to be the case. Not sure if they minors have changed what/how they teach or not. The fundamentals on the MLB roster are bad, again. That has to be partly on the coaching in the minors (and majors). It is hard to see if they are pushing players up faster or not. It is hard to see if they are moving clear non-starting pitchers to relievers faster and moving them to the majors fast (while their arms are strong and healthy).

 

To me, it is about the entire process, and we just can't tell what/if anything/ has really changed.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

All I know is, if the Twins keep losing 96 games a year, Twins fans will consume draft beer more quickly on game days.

[goulik]

They do have a great farm system. Which, due to two bad things happening, failed, once again, to graduate a player to the majors so far this year. Their first best OF in AAA isn't even a real OF. They have two guys ready, probably, to help this year. But one is on an innings limit, and the other is a relief pitcher. I get it. They are stacked with good/great prospects, but you know what, not one of them made the roster this year. And the team isn't exactly stacked with good young players right now either.

 

Josmil Pinto and Kyle Gibson appear to be new grads. (After limited call ups last year) Colabello and Hicks were both up for a good portion of last year so probably don't fit your definition of graduating but their play last year when with the big club did not signify a graduation. Oh, it's also the second week...

i can see a strong argument against 3 of these 4 but Pinto is Definitely a new grad...