Do the Twins Have an Ace? How do their starters stack up?
Entry posted by bean5302 in General Stuff ·
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What is an “Ace”?
There is no accepted definition for a pitcher earning the moniker “ace” which leads to all kind of friendly to less friendly debates when the declaration pitcher A is or is not an “ace.”
For me, an ace pitcher needs to have a few things on their resume.
1. An ERA of 3.39 or lower or a combination of history and FIP/SIERA/xFIP which suggests their ERA should be in that category
2. Long streaks of starts with 5.0+ (usually 6.0+) innings and ERA’s under 4.00 in those starts. We’re talking a bare minimum of 4, but often 5 or 6+ games in a row.
3. A pattern of starts which suggests the long streaks are earned by seeing consistent starts with FIPs below 4.00.
The basic gist is a pitcher where you don’t hope they pitch well, you just expect it’s a near automatic win when they start for you. A pitcher you have confidence to deliver a great start against whatever team or opposing pitcher they start against.
Item’s #2 and #3 separate “aces” from pitchers who’ve been lucky over a few starts or are up and down where you don’t really know what to expect from them on the mound. Jose Berrios was never an ace in my book. At his peak, he was a back end #2 or high end #3, but his bonus was just how much of a work horse he really was. He’d generally go 3 starts between hiccups like a typical mid rotation guy. Again, it’s the difference between expectation and hope.
Taking a look at the top 5 fWAR starting pitchers with 70+ innings (gets us to 128 total) this season and compare them to the Twins’ starters, you can see clear distinctions between what I consider to be an “ace” level pitcher, and our rotation. Ober has been the best starter for the Twins this year, but it’s clear he’s in a different class than the “aces.” I’ve also added trade interest kind of guys. Fedde, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Eflin, Eovaldi, Sears, Rogers, Lorenzen and Berrios' 2021 to the mix for comparisons. Berrios was that borderline #2 guy. He mostly pitched well enough to deserve a #2 monkier, but the results weren't quite up to how consistent he needed to be on the mound.
QS2 is my definition of a qualified start. 5.0+ innings pitched, ERA of 3.99 or lower. If a pitcher leaves the game with an ERA under 4.00, there's a good chance their team only needs to score 4 runs to win the game, and that should happen well over 50% of the time. If they leave the game with an ERA of 4.00 or higher, there's a good chance their team will need to score 5 runs or more to win the game, and that has a dramatic impact on likelihood of a win. Every run allowed by a team between 0 and 5 causes a major shift in likelihood of winning, and that's just a fact. Allowing more than 5, well, the odds shift less and less because you're already hosed if you have to ask your offense to put up more than 6.
FIP2 is the same, but an FIP of 3.99 or lower
Max Streak is the number of starts in a row where the pitcher manages a QS2
Streaks 4+ is how many of those 4 game streaks the pitcher has put together this year
Some guidelines you'll probably start recognizing if you look at pitchers in this way
70%+ on the QS2/FIP2 with 5+ game streaks is about the land of the ace.
60-70% is the land of the #2 with 4 game streaks
50-60% is the land of the #3 with 3 game streaks
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below the line are not really playoff caliber starters. They're guys who might get a start, but not guys you want starting a pivotable game.
40-50% is the land of the #4 with less than 3 game streaks
39% and lower is the land of the #5 with less than 3 game streaks
Bailey Ober has been the best pitcher on the Twins this year, but he's a clear gap away from the land of ace pitchers. He's probably in the #2 starter category right now, really pitching well. Lopez is next in line, but he honestly falls into the #3 bracket so far this year as he hasn't been consistent enough yet. Hopefully, he's better in the second half. The Twins really need him to step it up. Joe Ryan has consistently performed under his FIP, and he hasn't been reliable when it comes to putting up my definition of a quality start. He's pretty similar to 2021 Jose Berrios, though a bit less reliable. Borderline in the #3 category, I'd say. SWR is a bit of an oddball. Totally unreliable with good start, bad start, good start, bad start. No idea what you're getting with him, right on the border of #3-4 for me. Paddack falls into the #5 rotation arm category. The 35% FIP2% is just too bold to ignore. All in all, I'd say the Twins have a mismatch at the top of the rotation against other playoff teams, but we're deep with quality starters after that. Lopez and Ober are the key to the Twins playoff rotation. If Ober can keep it up and Lopez can pick it up, we may roll into the playoffs with 2 #2 guys, and a solid #3. Not quite where you'd like to be, but competitive. If Lopez sticks where he's at, the Twins will likely be at a clear disadvantage in the first 2 starts for the series, and potentially the 3rd.
If the Twins' bats can bail them out in game 1 of a playoff series, I like the Twins' chances against almost any other team. If the opponent's ace skunks us out of the gate like Wheeler or Skubal did recently, we're going to have a real tough row to hoe coming back IMHO.
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