If he stays hot I'm thinking he should be in the running. Other players have won on shorter seasons. He has been outstanding. Will be interesting to see a full season with him hopefully healthy!

If he stays hot he’ll get some votes but Henderson - Casas - Diaz all have really good stats and 2x the AB’s…….more data on each of them…..they’ve had good seasons. Lewis has the ability to be a better player over the course of a full season than anyone in this rookie class.

The good news is Eddie is viable as a really good player going forward as well!!

Nice to have a couple of guys that will get votes but Gunnar Henderson is a 5.8 WAR player.  -3500 betting odds.

If you can find a place to bet on Royce a dollar probably gets you 10k.

2 reasons he won't win. Not close to a full season like some of the others. And the old east coast bias will make Henderson a shoo in. A month ago it was Edoard Julien in a similar thread

There are 13 games left.  So if he could get 65 AB with 9  XBH and 15 RBI with a few other counting stats or something close to this I can see him being runner up .  Being in the headlines often is the key for his chances.  But I think he would still be 2nd to Gunnar Henderson.  Boston’s 1B is out the rest of the season.  Diaz doesn’t walk but has a shiny 20+ HR, and Jung does as well.  
maybe 2 or 3 more grand slams will make the difference.  But I think he would need close to 400 AB to be in serious contention for the award.  This is a decent rookie class.  I like Julien’s chances better with a good hot streak to close out the season.  I. Terms of getting 2nd place not first.

On 9/16/2023 at 4:21 PM, Schmoeman5 said:

2 reasons he won't win. Not close to a full season like some of the others. And the old east coast bias will make Henderson a shoo in. A month ago it was Edoard Julien in a similar thread

I don't think it's really east coast bias on Henderson: he's been a beast for the last 4 months (and while he started a little slower, it's not like he was terrible). Might be the best hitter on a team that could win a very difficult division, plays good defense...he's a very worthy pick.

Lewis & Julien both deserve some votes, but I'd give it to Henderson. If Royce doesn't miss July and half of August with the oblique injury? He probably is right there. but Henderson did play during that time and was great.

If Lewis had a full year he would be looking at the front runner.  Jung was running away with it, until he got hurt.  Then Henderson took a huge lead, helping lead a team most thought had no chance of making playoffs, to possibly 2nd best record in baseball at end of season.  Lewis has been setting records and hopefully will be the better player, but for this season it should go to Henderson.  He is also playing good defense at SS.  Just think that Baltimore also has the top prospect and possible ROY next year too. 

I'd rather Lewis get runner-up than Julien.   I think Lewis already gets a full year of service time, since he was on the MLB IL.

A rookie that is carrying a team should be in consideration for ROY regardless of his at bats , Lewis in the lineup has been a game changer  ....

Injuries have been unfortunate for Lewis  but when healthy he has the ability to be a game changer and that is what the voters should take notice in ,  regardless of 65 games or a full season of game's ......

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

A rookie that is carrying a team should be in consideration for ROY regardless of his at bats , Lewis in the lineup has been a game changer  ....

Injuries have been unfortunate for Lewis  but when healthy he has the ability to be a game changer and that is what the voters should take notice in ,  regardless of 65 games or a full season of game's ......

You bring up the question, do you look at overall numbers for the year, or what numbers they put up during the time they did play and look to extrapolate out?  I think the voters generally look at overall year numbers.  Take De La Cruz from Reds for example. he lit the baseball world on fire when he first came up in June, and still did okay in July, for about 50 games.  However last 40 plus games he has been terrible overall.  Had he got injured after June or early July missing the rest of the season, do you reward what he did in the 30 to 40 games where he looked like MVP?  Yes, Lewis has played more, he will play just over 1/3 of the season.  Gunner Henderson will play nearly 4/5 of the season. Lewis is on pace should he have played the full year, to have like a 7 or 8 WAR, well beyond Henderson, but fact is Henderson WAR is around a 6 and Lewis is not likely to pass 3.  

When playing Lewis is looking to be the better overall player and contribute more than Henderson, but in this year, Henderson has given more to his team, because he has played. Personally, I think Lewis should finish second behind Henderson. 

Good points Trov.  I think it will be Henderson, but there are 60-65 AB's out there for Lewis to continue to impress.  It may end up being closer than we could imagine.  I've been impressed with Diaz from Houston as well.  

In the National League, even though De La Cruz "burst" onto the scene, it's really been Corbin Carroll all year long.  He's had an outstanding rookie season for the D-Backs and looks to be an All Star fixture for years to come.  

3 hours ago, Trov said:

You bring up the question, do you look at overall numbers for the year, or what numbers they put up during the time they did play and look to extrapolate out?  I think the voters generally look at overall year numbers.  Take De La Cruz from Reds for example. he lit the baseball world on fire when he first came up in June, and still did okay in July, for about 50 games.  However last 40 plus games he has been terrible overall.  Had he got injured after June or early July missing the rest of the season, do you reward what he did in the 30 to 40 games where he looked like MVP?  Yes, Lewis has played more, he will play just over 1/3 of the season.  Gunner Henderson will play nearly 4/5 of the season. Lewis is on pace should he have played the full year, to have like a 7 or 8 WAR, well beyond Henderson, but fact is Henderson WAR is around a 6 and Lewis is not likely to pass 3.  

When playing Lewis is looking to be the better overall player and contribute more than Henderson, but in this year, Henderson has given more to his team, because he has played. Personally, I think Lewis should finish second behind Henderson. 

I LOVE Royce so its zero knock on him. But I dont think you can even remotely say this yet. Royce has a better pace this year than Henderson assuming it would be sustained for a full ride. But even if you assume that.

Henderson is also a full two years younger as well

Both are elite talents. Both are players any team would be dying to have. Long way to go to see who is the better overall player and contributor for next 5-10 years.