I missed, who comes up with xBA and what stats is it based on?

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I missed, who comes up with xBA and what stats is it based on?

It's a Statcast metric! From MLB.com:

Expected Batting Average (xBA) is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit.

Each batted ball is assigned an xBA based on how often comparable balls — in terms of exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, and sprint speed.

For example, a line drive to the outfield with an xBA of .700 is given that figure because balls with a similar exit velocity and launch angle have become hits seven out of 10 times.

Great post. I think Gordon is very underrated amongst Twins fans and his unluckiness to start the season hasn't helped. I've seen people saying the Twins should outright cut him, which I feel is absurd.

One very interesting fact about Gordon is that while his expected stats are remarkably similar to last year (.261 xBA in 2022 and .260 xBA in 2023, .464 xSLG in 2022 and .460 xSLG in 2023), he has completely changed as a hitter. This year he is striking out in only 7.5% of his at bats (which is lower than Arraez's career K%!!!), whereas he struck out 23.7% last year. On the other hand, he is barreling the ball a lot less (9.4% in 2022, 4.9% this year) and his hard hit rate has gone down as well (44.3% to 39.3%).

When a change like this happens, in most cases the player is being less selective in the pitches he swings at, thus it results in more balls in play but less quality contact. However, in Gordon's case, he is actually swinging at fewer pitches this year than he did last year. On the other hand, when he does swing, he isn't missing. His swinging strike rate has gone down from 15.2% to 9.8%. This is a HUGE change. For reference, Sano has a career 15.9% swinging strike rate, while Correa has a 9.2% swinging strike rate. This leads me to believe that he can actually sustain a low K% (not as low as 7.5%, but maybe a K% in the low teens) while maintaining his quality of contact from last year, which would lead to tremendous results. 

I'm very excited to see how Gordon plays this year, maybe more than any other young Twins player besides Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. I hope he starts getting more regular at-bats to show his worth.

4 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

I think Gordon is very underrated amongst Twins fans and his unluckiness to start the season hasn't helped. I've seen people saying the Twins should outright cut him, which I feel is absurd.

Totally agree. All the stats you cite reinforce the case that demoting Gordon would be extremely short-sighted. I think it's important to separate process from results. It's easy to focus on the results because those are what show up in the daily box scores, but the team/fans need to realize that Gordon's process--low K rate, low swinging strike rate, continuing to hit the ball hard--is one of a good MLB player.

I like to think the Twins' front office is smart enough to continue giving Gordon opportunities despite 1.5 unlucky months.

I am not sure a player can be lucky or unlucky. I would guess most good hitters are lucky and most poor hitters are unlucky.  I think Nick could be a OK player to have on the bench, but will never be a starting player. It appears the Twins could have several young players that could become starting players. With the limited roster spots each team has it is difficult to keep players that could be a OK player, but not enough talent to become a starting player. Our young players may not be ready this year so players like Nick are needed on this team, but he may not have a spot next year unless he starts getting more "lucky" hits.

Gordon will start in CF more & more v. RH pitchers now that Farmer will be back. He’s coming around with the bat. Playing good OF! He had a hard hit single up the middle and a triple in the series prior to White Sox. He’s part of the Twins plans for the season - .265 hitter with some extra base pop. He can play 4 positions………… .279 & 28 doubles & 9 HR last season.

3 hours ago, John Belinski said:

I am not sure a player can be lucky or unlucky.

I'm actually with you on this.  We are watching players trying their best, with the opposing team trying their best to stop them.  Once in a while a ground ball hits a pebble that no one could have foreseen, otherwise I try to avoid that word.  I wouldn't personally have picked that particular headline for this article, unless I slipped up.

But I do believe some patterns of results are unsustainable.  Pete Rose hitting .300 year after year? Sustainable, and you pretty much knew it once he really got going.  Nick Gordon putting together a career that looks like 2022?  Possibly not sustainable.  But the string of poor results Gordon has shown early in 2023?  Probably not sustainable in that direction either.

On 5/7/2023 at 12:41 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Gordon will start in CF more & more v. RH pitchers now that Farmer will be back. He’s coming around with the bat. Playing good OF! He had a hard hit single up the middle and a triple in the series prior to White Sox. He’s part of the Twins plans for the season - .265 hitter with some extra base pop. He can play 4 positions………… .279 & 28 doubles & 9 HR last season.

I agree, I think Gordon is more comfortable in the outfield at this point, and that will also have a positive effect on his batting. Or so I hope!

On 5/6/2023 at 12:11 PM, John Belinski said:

I am not sure a player can be lucky or unlucky.

I agree with this, there can be luck, I believe mostly good luck for a batter. Gordon isn't this bad, but I don't think he is a good as he was last year. IMO he is a fine bench player and should never be put in a position of blocking a prospect.

Nick's problem will always be his ability to lay off pitches he shouldn't swing at. League average chase rate is 28.4%. His is 39%. League average swing% is 47.1. His is 58.2%. Simply put, he swings too much. Same problem Miranda used to have, and seems to have again this season. When you'll swing at pitches you shouldn't pitchers have no reason to challenge you, and you see fewer and fewer good pitches to hit. Nick makes contact on 63% of the pitches he chases, but it's hard to hit those balls well. Same with Miranda. If either, or both, of them learn to be patient they could be really good players. Until then they'll continue to be inconsistent despite some stretches where they really pound the ball. Their careers hang on their swing decisions.

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Nick's problem will always be his ability to lay off pitches he shouldn't swing at. League average chase rate is 28.4%. His is 39%. League average swing% is 47.1. His is 58.2%. Simply put, he swings too much. Same problem Miranda used to have, and seems to have again this season. When you'll swing at pitches you shouldn't pitchers have no reason to challenge you, and you see fewer and fewer good pitches to hit. Nick makes contact on 63% of the pitches he chases, but it's hard to hit those balls well. Same with Miranda. If either, or both, of them learn to be patient they could be really good players. Until then they'll continue to be inconsistent despite some stretches where they really pound the ball. Their careers hang on their swing decisions.

I concur wholeheartedly. Of the 280 players with at least 70 PAs, Nick Gordon ranks 275 for drawing walks. A player like Nick Gordon can make contact on all kinds of pitches, but can he produce hits? Very few players can swing at poor pitches and get positive results consistently. Kirby Puckett was one of those rare cases, but I think for Nick Gordon to survive, he needs much more plate discipline.

First, I love the charts you made @SportsGuyDalton! Amazing way to visually demonstrate those numbers.

I would also include xwOBA in this discussion. Gordon has the largest negative differential in the AL there (min 50bip).

Shifting gears, I love where Taylor and Buxton are on this chart. xBA has yet to be properly calibrated for fast right-handed batters, who generally get more infield hits than the batted ball data suggests for right-handed batters as a group.

and now a broken leg from a foul tip.....