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Correa for Soto???


Doc Munson

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Is there a rationale for the Twins to get into the Juan Soto sweepstakes??

 

While I am not officially predicting this ( I have retired from teh predicting game immediately after predicting the Correa signing... going out undefeated!!  hehe).

There COULD be a path to Soto.

 

First, The Twins inked Correa to a 3 year deal at $35.1M AAV. Assuming the Twins would be comfortable if Correa would opt in to those last 2 years, and were being used SOLELY as a leverage play, that means the Twins are OK opening up the books a bit. IF Correa were to get moved, his 2 years and $70.2M total due him would be freed up.  IF the Twins were willing to give Correa $70.2M over the next 2 years then you would think they would be ok paying Soto $60-70M (in arb cases) over the next 2 years. 

That right there takes the "small market" argument out of the equation.

Now it comes down to what the TWins would have to give up.

We start no place else than Correa himself. While he CAN opt out, if the Nats were willing to lock up Soto with $440M, then maybe they would be willing to offer a similar deal to Correa, who would undoubtedly take that deal (or even something a little less) since he is a few years older.

Obviously a straight up Correa/Soto isnt enough, so what else would it take?  Nat's have said they want 4-5 top prospects or young controllable MLB talent  in return.  Lets say Correa is good enough to be worth 2 players. that leaves another 2-3 players to pick.

Would they have interest in Sano? if so we include him, if not then no worries we move Urshela to SS, Miranda to 3B and Sano/Kirilloff/Arraez a 1B/DH platoon.

Assuming not interested in Sano, lets add Spencer Steer for near MLB ready 2B, Noah Miller for a more future/potential player, a young player like Nick Gordon, and a top 10 pitching prospect.

This reloads the Twins, allows us to still contend this year, and help address some of the positional overlap.

With a set OF rotation of Soto, Buxton, Kepler.

an IF of Miranda, Urshela, Polanco, Kirilloff/Sano

The Twins can keep Soto for a year to a year and a half and and then still trade him for a massive haul after 2023.

 

Again I am not saying it WILL happen, I am just saying it COULD happen

 

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I wouldn’t trade Correa for Soto. The only prudent move would be to extend Correa, IMO. Gordon’s best position is LF and they could try to acquire Michael A. Taylor as Nick Nelson mentioned or my favorite hitting machine Andrew Binentendi.

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No way that's possible. I'd take whatever odds you offer on that bet.

You're relying on the possibility the Nats would offer a huge deal to Correa. Nats wanted to sign Soto to that deal because he's like 23-24. Correa is 28-29. A deal like Soto's would carry Correa through the end of his career in all likelihood. He's good at a premium position, but would that be the expectation for the entirety of a contract like that for Correa throughout his 30's? Unlikely.

5 extra years of his 20's is why they offered Soto the deal they did. 

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Obviously no way that is happening.  The main reason we got Correa was because his agent, Scott Boras, contacted the Twins.  Not the other way around.  But the Twins DID elect to sign Correa.  As it is currently turning out I'm not sure it was for the best.  After all if the FO refuses to invest in major league pitching what good does Correa do?  Yes the team is 3 games in first place.  Without the regular implosion of the bullpen, and with a superstar at short Twins should be 8-10 games in front.  Soto is likely going to a big market team.  My guess the Dodgers or Cardinals.  It's also possible the Yankees could sweep in but the asking price is very high.

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Can't see it. Interesting to think about, but can't see it. Correa's age, yes, I'm also thinking they offered Soto $440 million knowing he wouldn't take it. It gives the team an out to trade him without completely alienating the fan base, who are alienated already. Correa is with the Twins because he didn't get the kind of offer that Soto did and, in my opinion, won't get it. Besides, the Twins would be renting Soto, since a mid-market team won't give him the kind of money he thinks he can get elsewhere. Better to keep Correa, if they can, for two more years or sign him long term if possible, since we know he fits among the vets and youngsters. Boras is also Correa's agent, right? Basically, he parked Correa in Minnesota in hopes of a better market next year or the year after that. My hope is the Twins get relief pitching and an additional starter for redundant prospects. The big question now is Royce Lewis at short. Also a Boras client. Que sera sera. What will be will be.

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Okay, let's look at the macro picture here.  Soto turns down 440 for 10, thinking he can do better somewhere else?  Or is it possible he sees the micro picture here and sees that in Washington he can spend the rest of his career making a crap ton of money, but not winning.  I mean, if Washington is below the .400 line WITH him, they must be pretty bad.  And knowing he will take up the lions share of the payroll for the next 10 years he may never see a chance to be a winner for life.  So he turns it down, and hopes they will trade him to a team that is willing to pay not only him, but others like him and win over the course of his career.  If I were him, that is what I would do.  And what do you think the odds are that the team who rises to that level are the Twins?  I can barely keep a straight face as I type that.  Give Correa the 7 year deal he is probably going to get and make him the Mauer of the franchise for the near future.  Hope that Soto stays in the NL and never threatens us short of the World Series.  Correa for Soto?  Might be tempting, but I will take the bird in the hand any day of the week; that is if we can hold onto this particular bird.  

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The Twins would have to be braindead stupid not to trade Correa for Soto. Soto is the better player and has several years of team control remaining. The only value Correa would have for Washington would be to trade him to a different club since he's opting out after this season.

If you look at MLB trade values, Soto is valued at 177 and Correa at 15. That's how overwhelmingly terrible this trade would be for Washington. If I owned the Nationals and my POBO tried to make this trade I'd veto it and fire him immediately. Then I'd fire anyone who didn't say it was a terrible idea when it was discussed.

The difficult part of a Soto trade is there is almost no way for the Nationals to recoup that much value. For the Twins to get close to that value in a Soto package they'd have to include Joe Ryan, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda and either Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach.

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No way the Twins can get into that kind of contract...and if they didn't extend Soto, no way they get a large haul for him as a rental.....might recoup some.....

Bigger issue no way they should extent Correa, have said all along the way the Twins win on this deal is if it is for one year and he opts out and goes somewhere else.....means he had a good year....no way he is worth 30mil/...above average ballplayer but not a superstar.....spend the payroll across a couple of pitchers......

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Not happening. Soto has a TON of excess trade value. He's the modern day Ted Williams. 

Not even worth speculating on the Twins. They'd have to include Joe Ryan, Spencer Steer, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Kirilloff, Bailey Ober and Carlos Correa to even get the Nationals to pick up the phone and get within shouting distance.  

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4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Obviously no way that is happening.  The main reason we got Correa was because his agent, Scott Boras, contacted the Twins.  Not the other way around.  But the Twins DID elect to sign Correa.  As it is currently turning out I'm not sure it was for the best.  After all if the FO refuses to invest in major league pitching what good does Correa do?  Yes the team is 3 games in first place.  Without the regular implosion of the bullpen, and with a superstar at short Twins should be 8-10 games in front.  Soto is likely going to a big market team.  My guess the Dodgers or Cardinals.  It's also possible the Yankees could sweep in but the asking price is very high.

The problem I see with the yankees in the Soto speculation is that they don't have the prospect capital the Nats would want, unless the deal is mostly a salary dump, in which case they could send 150m or so to the Nats along with prospects. I don't see that happening with NYY already in revenue sharing territory.

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I don't even see the purpose. We needed to get stronger up the middle, not get another left fielder irrespective of his upside. This year, we have a very good SS, a decent 3rd baseman, a mediocre 2nd baseman and a mediocre 1st baseman (speaking from strictly fielding). If we get Soto, who plays SS--Nick Gordon?? No way.

 

If we get Correa for one year that's great and if we can get him for three years, even better. Soto, even if he wanted to come here (which I find highly unlikely), is a pipedream that will hurt the Twins in the short term, and maybe even in the long run.

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I LOVE IT!!!  Great comments everyone. LOL  and to paraphrase most comments, yes I also agree  that it will not happen.  It was just fun putting toegther the THEORETICAL rationale, how it COULD happen. lol.

 

And to see all of these glorious replies!!!

 

Keep on havin fun!!!!  :)

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I'd do it in a heartbeat but I honestly don't believe the Nats will trade Soto this year. Maybe in the off-season or at next year's deadline but not this year.

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