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2022 team is mostly set up at this point


Brandon

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Just a quick rundown of who is available on our roster with team control for next year.  It seems next year's team is already close to complete with what we have already.  On the offensive side the 2 real ?s are CF and SS can we get Buxton signed to an extension?  and do we sign a SS allstar in FA or resign Simmons for another season at a much lower rate and wait for Lewis to come up?  of course the other consideration is do we sign Cruz to another 1 year contract?

On the Pitching side there is a little more to be done.  Do we resign Pineda and for how much and long?  do we sign or trade for another starter as well?  and do we extend both Rogers and Duffy?  Do we sign at least 1 more reliever maybe 2 or go with more young guys.  (We have lots of young guys ready to compete here)  Here is the breakdown of what we have as far as team control over different players.  I included options as exercised as team control years in case you are wondering.

lastly I think we have around 50 million in contracts for next season and around 20 million for arbitration raises.  Assuming 130 - 140 million payroll next season what do you do?

Up for contract extensions
CF Buxton 1 year left of team control

RP Rogers 1 year left of team control

RP Duffy 1 year left of team control

SP Pineda impending FA

 

The Graduated with at least 2-4 years of control
1B / DH Sano has 2 years

2B Polanco has 4 seasons

RF / CF Kepler has 3 seasons

C Garver has 2 seasons

Utility Arraez has 4 seasons

 

The Recently graduated with 5 or 6 seasons of Control remaining
1B / LF Alex Killeroff

C Jeffers

LF Larnarch

DH / OF Rooker

 

Top Prospects as AA and AAA
SS / OF Lewis

SS / 2B / CF Martin

3B Miranda

OF Celestino

 

Established bench still under team control
Astudillo

Cave

Gordon (Almost but not quite established)

Refsnyder

Revordt

Garlick

 

With Pitching we have Graduated with 2-4 years of control
SP Maeda with 3 seasons

RP Theilbar

RP Alcala

 

Recently Graduated with 5 or 6 seasons of Control remaining
SP Ober

SP / RP Dobnak

SP/ RP Griffin Jax (Not fully graduated yet but close enough)

 

Top Prospects at AA and AAA
SP Woods – Richardson

SP Balazovich

SP / RP Duran

SP Ryan

SP Winder

SP / RP Strottman

SP Sands

SP Vallimont

RP Moran

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10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

For a team with almost nothing but question marks on the mound to fill 13 positions "Mostly Set Up" seems pretty confident.

Yes but how many prospects do we have that should be ready at some point next season.  My point was we have our position players down pat with only a few adjustments and while we have lots of holes in the pitching staff we do have lots of prospects to come up who are legit prospects.  

But I will go ahead and apologize for the name of the article.  It should read the position players are almost set and the Pitching at least has legit prospects to fill it out for now....

 

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There isn't a need to apologize for an opinion, it's just not what a lot of fans were really hoping for the Twins to do. Honestly, I could see a 100% in house roster:

  • C - Garver/Jeffers
  • 1B - Kirilloff
  • 2B - Polanco 
  • 3B - Miranda / Donaldson
  • SS - Palacios
  • UI - Arraez: 
  • LF - Refsnyder
  • CF - Buxton
  • RF - Kepler
  • UO - Celestino
  • DH - Donaldson/Larnach
  • SP1 - Maeda
  • SP2 - Balazovic
  • SP3 - Ryan
  • SP4 - Ober
  • SP5 - Winder
  • BP1 - Rogers
  • BP2 - Duffey
  • BP3 - Moran
  • BP4 - Duran
  • BP5 - Thielbar   
  • BP6 - Gant
  • BP7 - Dobnak
  • BP8 - Stashak

The roster construction above would be totally reasonable for the Twins if they weren't intending on competing for the division title next year. Could it still happen? If people stayed healthy and about 5 of the 8 "iffy" folks in that roster played well or up to their absolute ceilings (like Balazovic) the roster would be potentially competitive during the regular season. That rotation would almost certainly be doomed in the playoffs though. Worst case scenario for that roster? Probably not terrible. Maybe 90 losses.

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36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

There isn't a need to apologize for an opinion, it's just not what a lot of fans were really hoping for the Twins to do. Honestly, I could see a 100% in house roster:

  • C - Garver/Jeffers
  • 1B - Kirilloff
  • 2B - Polanco 
  • 3B - Miranda / Donaldson
  • SS - Palacios
  • UI - Arraez: 
  • LF - Refsnyder
  • CF - Buxton
  • RF - Kepler
  • UO - Celestino
  • DH - Donaldson/Larnach
  • SP1 - Maeda
  • SP2 - Balazovic
  • SP3 - Ryan
  • SP4 - Ober
  • SP5 - Winder
  • BP1 - Rogers
  • BP2 - Duffey
  • BP3 - Moran
  • BP4 - Duran
  • BP5 - Thielbar   
  • BP6 - Gant
  • BP7 - Dobnak
  • BP8 - Stashak

The roster construction above would be totally reasonable for the Twins if they weren't intending on competing for the division title next year. Could it still happen? If people stayed healthy and about 5 of the 8 "iffy" folks in that roster played well or up to their absolute ceilings (like Balazovic) the roster would be potentially competitive during the regular season. That rotation would almost certainly be doomed in the playoffs though. Worst case scenario for that roster? Probably not terrible. Maybe 90 losses.

If this is the team the Twins would field to start 2022, a 90 loss season would be significantly over-achieving.  No offense, but this roster would lose 100 games easily and may challenge for the all-time worst MLB record.  

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3 minutes ago, sjunisu said:

If this is the team the Twins would field to start 2022, a 90 loss season would be significantly over-achieving.  No offense, but this roster would lose 100 games easily and may challenge for the all-time worst MLB record.  

It's well established you're angry about the Twins' performance. The members of this site have certainly picked up on it.

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17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's well established you're angry about the Twins' performance. The members of this site have certainly picked up on it.

There is no anger in my comment, only an opinion based on the results of this season.  The roster you provided has no Berrios, no Cruz, and more than a handful of rookies/unproven prospects.  I am only comparing this years squad/performance to the one listed in this thread.  The FO can certainly go this route (it is their job not mine) but should come out and state they are entering a full rebuild which would be the honest thing to do.

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I would agree . If this was the roster the FO stuck with the stands would get pretty empty by the all star break. Fortunately for us, the FO has alot more common sense than that. LOL

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6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

There isn't a need to apologize for an opinion, it's just not what a lot of fans were really hoping for the Twins to do. Honestly, I could see a 100% in house roster:

  • C - Garver/Jeffers
  • 1B - Kirilloff
  • 2B - Polanco 
  • 3B - Miranda / Donaldson
  • SS - Palacios
  • UI - Arraez: 
  • LF - Refsnyder
  • CF - Buxton
  • RF - Kepler
  • UO - Celestino
  • DH - Donaldson/Larnach
  • SP1 - Maeda
  • SP2 - Balazovic
  • SP3 - Ryan
  • SP4 - Ober
  • SP5 - Winder
  • BP1 - Rogers
  • BP2 - Duffey
  • BP3 - Moran
  • BP4 - Duran
  • BP5 - Thielbar   
  • BP6 - Gant
  • BP7 - Dobnak
  • BP8 - Stashak

The roster construction above would be totally reasonable for the Twins if they weren't intending on competing for the division title next year. Could it still happen? If people stayed healthy and about 5 of the 8 "iffy" folks in that roster played well or up to their absolute ceilings (like Balazovic) the roster would be potentially competitive during the regular season. That rotation would almost certainly be doomed in the playoffs though. Worst case scenario for that roster? Probably not terrible. Maybe 90 losses.

Just giving up on Sano and Rooker?

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1 hour ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Just giving up on Sano and Rooker?

Just working purely off memory in the moment :)  Sano will be back on the roster next year, no question, but some things are likely to move around.

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15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Just working purely off memory in the moment :)  Sano will be back on the roster next year, no question, but some things are likely to move around.

Replace Celestino with Sano.  A free agent for Palacios and your position players are probably very close.  Until Buxton is traded….

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It doesn't seem like the Twins are aiming for a $50-75 million payroll but it could happen. Twins Daily is restless because of the disaster that was April and May but I am still thinking that $140 million is likely too.

Every player is available, a minimum of two pitchers need to come via free agency or trade as well as a few good relief pitchers and, hopefully,  a shortstop added. Buxton is a key as well. Starting 2022 with four rookie starting pitchers is a long shot. We don't have to worry because someone else (Falvine) will take of everything.

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There will be plenty of difficult 40 man roster decisions to make in offseason, I am sure Twins will sign some FAs in offseason. But each one signed will mean another spot less for someone else. Regarding starting pitching, Ober, Jax, Barnes, Dobnak have all shown some success, with Winder, Ryan, Balazovic, Duran, Sands, and others that will have to be on 40 man. Do Twins use a couple of roster spots on middling veteran starters like Happ, Shoemacher and risk losing someone to rule 5 draft or go with younger pitchers? 

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19 hours ago, Brandon said:

Yes but how many prospects do we have that should be ready at some point next season.  My point was we have our position players down pat with only a few adjustments and while we have lots of holes in the pitching staff we do have lots of prospects to come up who are legit prospects.  

But I will go ahead and apologize for the name of the article.  It should read the position players are almost set and the Pitching at least has legit prospects to fill it out for now....

 

"I don't think there's an exact science," Hinch said about moving Torkelson and Greene to Toledo. "You can't predict how things are going to be. You call them up, and they get off to a really hot start, then you kept them down there too long. You call them up and they get off to a dry spell and they're not very good early, then you rushed them. There's no perfect way to predict exactly how they're going to respond or what the right time is."

This article:  Detroit Tigers promote Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Ryan Kreidler to Triple-A Toledo (yahoo.com)

with A.J.HInch of the Detroit Tigers is about moving rookies from AA to AAA much less the Big Show. 

This article shows moving these players around is not a simple -- Why aren't they moving so and so because I think they should  --  so much rhetoric is about here but says why and how difficult it actually is to do so and not screw things up worse for the player or team. --- A good read.

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I recently listened to a Roy Smalley podcast, and he mentioned that he asked one of Gene Mauch's coaches, How do you build a solid, young pitching staff? His response was, start with 10 young, quality arms.

I believe that the Twins are approaching the 10 young, quality arms. This past year, MN depended on JA Happ, and Shoemaker to help carry the rotation. I think Shoemaker is pretty much done, but have you seen Happ's numbers with the Cards?

If Buxton is healthy next year, this team will score runs

dennis

 

 

 

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I agree with most of the fans here.  If the Twins are just counting on current 40 man roster, count on a 90-100 loss season next year.  If you are counting on Twins signing quality FA pitching, count on 90-100 losses next year.  If you are counting on the pitching prospects to make a big impact next season, count on a 90-100 loss season.  Prospects must prove they are MLB pitchers before we get too excited.  I think with some tinkering, we could be competitive next year.  Starting pitching, a bullpen, and a shortstop that can hit even a little bit would help.  Get Buxton back and hope he plays close to what he did in April

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I would expect the Twins to go out and sign and trade players this offseason.  We have lots of depth and some prospect capital as well.  I could see the Twins either extending Buxton or signing an All Star SS (We have prospects for the other position).  If we sign a SS, expect to see Buxton dealt to open a spot.  I can also see the Twins signing a starting pitcher possibly 2.  They won't sign a top of the rotation arm though.  and I can see the Twins signing a bullpen arm or two.  I think management wants to see a few rookies at a time to prevent a situation where too many rookies could fail at the same time decimating the pitching staff with too many short outings both in the rotation and pen.  

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The on field lineup IS pretty well set for next season. The only issue really is choosing 6 of the following 10 actual or potential Twins for basically 6 roster positions - LF, RF, 3B, DH, and 2 bench spots (assumes we pick up a FA SS, Arraez is one of the non-assigned bench spots as a Utl, and have one C on the bench):

Sano, Larnach, Rooker, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, Donaldson (trade candidate), Miranda, Gordon. Nelson Cruz reunion.

My prediction is we keep Sano, Donaldson, and (1) either Refsnyder or Cave as the 4th/5th OF but  not both, (2) either Larnach or Rooker as the 4th/5th OF/part-time DH but not both, and (3) either Astudillo or Gordon as the Utility IF but not both, and (4) either re-sign Cruz or keep the loser of one of the other 3 battles. I say we should keep Larnach (OF/DH), Rooker (OF/DH), Refsnyder (reserve CF/OF) and Gordon (Utl IF). Love me some Cruz but he clogs up the DH position instead of us running guys through it for half days off and he hasn't hit at all for the Rays.  Miranda starts 2022 in AAA and is the first injury call up. Cave is the AAA CF and comes up if Buxton is hurt.  Astudillo is the odd man out.    

The pitching staff? Good luck with that prediction. I will be impressed if someone can give us 13 names (not unnamed FA) as the opening day pitching staff for the 2022 season and get even 11 of them correct. 

 

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On 8/16/2021 at 10:17 AM, dennistwinsfever2 said:

I recently listened to a Roy Smalley podcast, and he mentioned that he asked one of Gene Mauch's coaches, How do you build a solid, young pitching staff? His response was, start with 10 young, quality arms.

I believe that the Twins are approaching the 10 young, quality arms. This past year, MN depended on JA Happ, and Shoemaker to help carry the rotation. I think Shoemaker is pretty much done, but have you seen Happ's numbers with the Cards?

If Buxton is healthy next year, this team will score runs

dennis

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure the actually quote from Mauch (and he may not have originated it) is "How do you build a 5-man rotation? Start with 10." but it's still true: between injuries and ineffectiveness, you need to expect to go 8-9 guys deep getting starts every season. On a good year, you go 6-7. on a bad one, you go 10-12.

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I think Brandon's listing of the potential roster is a "starting point" that doesn't take into consideration what FA moves or trades the Twins could make.  I think that was Brandon's intention, because what fun would there be if he laid out EVERYTHING leaving us nothing to talk about.

I had a fairly long take on what the Pohlad's and FO (as well as Rocco) have for their upcoming off-season.  In a nutshell:  Last year the White Sox showed a real sense of urgency to compete.  They needed a closer, and signed the BEST on the market, Liam Hendricks.  We needed a closer.  We signed Colome.  They wanted better starting pitching and signed Lance Lynn and Dennis Keuchel.  We signed Happ and Shoemaker.  Etc...Etc...  The White Sox passed us like a speeding bullet.  Our off-season was an epic fail.  And it's not the only time this FO has failed epically.  How serious are the Pohlad's about their "investment" ??  We've been hearing ad-nauseum from our FO that there are no restrictions from the Pohlad's on payroll.  Prove it.  It's harder to get a Saints ticket than a Twins ticket.  Is that what the Pohlad's consider "optimal" ??? 

Most of our lineup is indeed set.  If they don't sign Buxton to a mutually agreeable extension then just sell the team boys.  Your "investment" will crater.  Baseball teams "contend" when they pitch.  It's true for just about every team, ever.  The Twins are no exception.  We have a LOT of young, talented arms that have proven nothing at the major league level.  Name a team team that has "contended" with the list of SP's that Brandon provided.  I can't.  Brandon did this intentionally to spur "conversation."  They need a #1 and a #3 added to that SP rotation.  They can let Dobnak and whoever rises to the top fill out #4 & #5.  They need a proven CLOSER.  (did you get my drift above on the contrast between us and the White Sox on who had a serious approach last off-season and who didn't)??  So a CLOSER and a reliable vet arm (ala Clippard-type but not limited to him) would help the BP immensely.  Extend Taylor Rogers.  Bring back Duffey.  Some of the young arms can get their feet wet in the pen.  

Shortstop  is something that can easily be filled with a Jose Iglesias/Freddy Galvis type,  maybe Simmons (for a dirt cheap one-year deal).  Give Lewis a year at AAA to get a better sense of his potential positional home.  I had been very much in the camp to get a Trevor Story type SS.  Not so much anymore.  We need PITCHING.  (the Dodgers deal for Trea Turner and Scherzer was brilliant.  Watch Cory Seager shift to 3B and  Justin Turner DH with Scherzer in their rotation for 2022.  BRILLIANT) !! 

I look to bring in a new hitting coach with a particular focus on Kepler and Sano.  I'm all for trading Sano for anyone who would take him for a bag of baseballs just to open up his $10-$12 to add more pitching.  Failing that, he gets one more year to improve or I just cut bait.  Same with Kepler.  I stick with Larnach.  I see potential but I see the holes.  I think he'll work out.  I keep Refsnyder.  He plays hard and would be a good #4 outfielder.  I think after the season he's had in AAA Miranda deserves a real shot at a big league roster spot.  What else does he have to prove at AAA?  I say goodbye to Cave, Garlick, Austidillo, and Rooker.  If they find a way back to the Saints roster, fine.  But I'm expecting moves and 40-man roster decisions where these guys (especially someone like Cave) don't deserve a "lifetime bench position" on a major league ballclub.  Seriously, guys like this can be replaced without breaking a sweat.  Gordon is AAA, nothing more.  Guys like Martin and Lewis will be pressing soon enough.   And there are a number of pitchers out of options that the twins can move on from.  I noticed Canterino wasn't listed.  Not sure if he's not at a high enough minor league level or was just missed but I am very high on his potential.  He's in the mix for 2023 for sure, if not sooner depending on health and performance.

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The 2022 team is not close to set if the Twins hope to be relevant. If management decides that it is time to tank then Buxton, Maeda, Rogers and others may bring back some future roster members. If the Twins want to compete there needs to be some serious free agent dating and a few good trades. No player is untouchable on the Twins team. Their pitching needs attention first and we should remember that Maeda is, at most, a #3 pitcher for a decent rotation and I am a big fan of Kenta Maeda. The Twins should look to Miami, or someone else, to make a mutually useful trade. I have no idea what makes total sense for Miami but they need a catcher (either of Garver or Jeffers) and some outfield help (anyone?/any of Kepler, Larnach, Celestino or even Royce Lewis). Miama has a wealth of young pitching (looking at Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer) and a trade might work beautifully for both teams. This is just an example where the Twins need to make a move/trade to improve their roster next year if they truly want to compete. Additionally, TopGun#22 is right on about how the CWS identified pitchers and went after them aggressively. Rodon and a few other SP are available this winter as are a few good relief pitchers. It is late August and Twins Daily has turned quickly to the offseason while there are still 38 games to go and the Twins need to look over players in these last games. It is noteworthy that the Saints are a tough ticket some days. Let's hope that management has some solid plans to make the Twins competitive for 2022.

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O.k. Tony&Rodney here's an example of what you're talking about based on MLB Trade Values.

Twins get:  Sandy Alcantara 25 years old  61.90 value

Marlins get:  Ryan Jeffers  young catcher  27.9 value and Max Kepler OF'er 37.5 value. Cost controlled talent. Total Value:  65.40

I have the Twins slightly over-paying because Starting Pitching probably needs to be slightly over-paid for.  I hate to give up what we're giving up, but we have Garver and Rortvedt (and Telis as well as Austidillo).  Jeffers is an asset that should probably be heavily considered in off season moves.  I hate to give up on Kepler, but maybe a change in scenery is what he needs.  It frustrates me no end that with the entire left side of the infield WIDE OPEN Max is hitting .200.  Miami needs offense and Max could bounce back in a big way for them.  With Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis and Martin we can make a move like this.

The second potential deal with the Marlins would be Max Meyer 29.3 value acquired for Jeffers and Brent Rooker 3.3 value

Total Value:  Twins get 29.3.  Marlins get 31.2. 

With the Universal DH coming and Rooker having undeniable power, this is a worthy gamble for the Marlins.  They get their catcher of the future and a DH with POWER.  We get a young pitching prospect with high upside.  The question is how soon would Meyer be in the Big Leagues.  The Marlins are loaded with pitching, so either Alcantara (who would head our rotation immediately) or Meyer (who would arrive at a to be determined date) would be hard for them to give up, but like us giving up Kepler and/or Jeffers the Marlins have the depth to seriously consider either of these moves.

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The Marlins and Twins seem to line up and I hope there are some conversations between them. We may never know unless a trade is made, but fans need to live with that situation. The Marlins cannot move forward without addressing their catching and hitting, specifically the outfield and the Twins need pitching and a shortstop. I would do either trade despite the obvious talent lost when dealing Kepler. Additionally, I would dangle Larnach or others to get both pitchers. What others? Maybe Arraez, Martin, or Lewis; I don't know what Miami is thinking. I'm of the belief that the Twins have a host of very good young pitchers to slot in at the back end of a rotation, but need to get a few arms for the top spots. A trade with Miami is a gamble, like all trades, that may necessitate only one free agent signing for a top SP. There is still the matter of adding a couple of decent relief pitchers and a shortstop. My thinking is that the Twins can be relevant next year with some signings and a significant trade. The reason a trade with Miami is particularly timely is because pitchers like Alcantara and Meyer are inexpensive and allows the Twins to target other needs. Miami is loaded with good pitching both on the roster and ready (Sanchez).

FWIW, I don't look at the trade values sites, but acknowledge that others find it useful. I try to guess what may work based on watching a ton of mlbtv and looking over minor leagues, box scores and other certain data points. It's just a lifelong hobby and takes far less time than when I played and/or coached; retirement is a busy life.

To focus back to the blog - I do not think that the Twins have any semblance of a roster in place for next year. I would expect about 10-12 changes from the roster that opened this season and at least six new faces from those on the current 40 man roster. In the meantimeI'm hoping to see the Twins battle through the remainder of their schedule and do not want them to improve their draft position.

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Brandon, hate to say it, but yes, title of article is quite misleading.  I'm fairly confident you are not saying that if we mainly relied on current roster plus some top prospects that this team could be anywhere near competitive next year.  Management has indicated they do not intend to rebuild, but instead, retool so that next year we can at least pretend to contend.  No way in hell is this happening unless major additions are made this offseason.  Otherwise, expect a 100 loss season in 2022 and a long wait for real contention in the ensuing years.  You can drive a few 24 wheelers thru all the holes in this current roster.  That's just reality!

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