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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    Am I mistaken that Kepler jogged to 3B? How is that Watkins fault? Watkins was obviously confused by a guy who wasn't running full speed. That should have been a run, and it was Kepler's fault it wasn't. If he can't run, well, then he shouldn't be out there, obviously. I've had quite enough of him and, frankly, wouldn't mind if he were placed on the 60-day DL with this knee thing.
  2. twinstalker
    Raya, DeBarge, Rosario, and Schobel are not top 20 worthy. Winokur and K. Culpepper are much too high (maybe 19 and 20?). Right now Culpepper is playing against guys he should be better than. The rest of the college players drafted this year are playing against guys they should be way better than. DeBarge looks like I feared he would. He could never hit quality stuff. He hit stuff that was complex league at best. I doubt any of these guys will be as good as Payton Eeles will be, and he's not even on your list. And the first four I mention are actually close in age to him, though the batters are older or the same in the age vs level qualification. CJ Culpepper is struggling, and imo probably has TJS or similar in his near future. Get it done. He's a good prospect, and I don't understand how the player or team or whoever is suggesting rehab actually thinks he'll be the one guy with his symptoms who doesn't need surgery.
  3. twinstalker
    LOL. Twins will have to place Eeles on the 40 man roster by November 2027. I, too, hope they don't lose him.
  4. twinstalker
    Well, that's a sad headline.
  5. twinstalker
    tl;dr 1967 was before my time, but it goes down as probably the Twins most disappointing regular season. They should have won the pennant that year. 1992 might be second after backing up their 1991 title with a fantastic four months (almost) that might have been enough had the powerful A's not been their main competitor. After those two, I think 2001 and 1977 might be 3 and 4. 2001 was a young team, but they had a big lead and choked with LaTroy Hawkins as an inadequate closer. 1977 held a lot of hope after a great run to end 1976, but a first week car accident thinned an already thin pitching staff, including starter Mike Pazik. Still, the Twins with Carew (.388), Bostock (.336), Hisle (.302, 119 RBI), Adams (.844 ops), Goltz (20 wins, 3.36), and Tom Johnson (16 wins, 3.03 in 71 G, all relief) got out early and were (42-31) up one game after the famous 19-12 win vs the Whities and two more vs Mil. They went 42-46 to finish the season. And Bostock and Hisle were impending free agents. Very disappointing. 1984 might have had a disappointing finish, but the division was really bad, the team wasn't nearly ready to win a lot of games, and there was a lot of excitement about Kirby, Herbie, Gaetti, Bruno, Teufel, Viola, Smithson, Butcher, and even an old but exciting Ron Washington. Detroit was far and away the best team that year, probably followed by 4-5 other teams in the East. Winning the West was a death sentence. It wasn't a lot different in 1987, actually. The 1984 and 2001 teams were both young, but 2001 was really pretty good while 1984 wasn't yet. The Twins weren't good in 2008 and had lost Johan and Hunter after the previous season. It was more surprising that they played in a Game 163 than it was disappointing they lost the division. 2009 was probably the most pleasantly shocking team after they disappointed nearly the whole season but came back from 7 down on Sept 6, only to fall two games under .500 (5.5 GB) on Sept 12 before bouncing back to three games back with four to go. Twins won their last four, Tigers lost three and won on the final day to create a Game 163. Twins had gone 16-4 to finish and then took down the Tigers in Game 163. Not disappointing.
  6. twinstalker
    I just skimmed so forgive... I think this could signify they like Keirsey as a 5th OF (Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Keirsey) in 2025, but bringing him up this year could lead to losing him. At the end of the season (or whenever earlier they know they won't have to expose him by dropping him off the 40) they can place him on the 40 and protect him from Rule V or six-year minor league free agency. If for some reason they don't have room to put him on the 40 after the season, I think they'll be disappointed, but it's not going to keep them up at nights.
  7. twinstalker
    I drafted Eeles in my simulation league, just in case the Twins got tired of throwing the same old out at 2B. Unfortunately, I won't be able to keep him, but I'll likely get him late next March. As for the age list. De Andrade is young, but I think he'd be at Wichita at age 20 if he hadn't gotten hurt. That age vs level thing is no joke. Another guy I'll draft at some point next year, likely in supplemental drafts.
  8. twinstalker
    I, too, watched the game on my little black and white I'd brought to the temporary dorm room I had for fall practice my freshman year. For some reason I remember it being a Monday night. I seriously wish I could remember why I know it was a Monday night. Given the rarity of games on local TV, it could have been Monday Night Baseball, but I think it was local.
  9. twinstalker
    Not sure how up to date these all are or whether it's referring to now or future. Anyway, what I do know is De Andrade is good, and I think he hits enough. I'm not sure he's the next Greg Gagne, but it does seem like a distinct comp for him, though I hate to compare any fielder with Gagne. I've had De Andrade ranked #7 in the system and the heir to Correa.
  10. twinstalker
    Oh, the future stars that can be found from 15-game samples at low A!
  11. twinstalker
    He was horrible in Toronto, he's horrible still. No surprise. I, too, hoped he had something the Twins could tweak, but it doesn't appear to be the case.
  12. twinstalker
    Answering the title question: Sure, if he cuts his strikeouts down by a third. (So, no, imo). I have him 5th with the Twins because of this. And it's not just a main predictor I use, it's what the big lists use, and that's the question being asked. If he struck out 18%, he'd be there or on or close to the podium right now. He's also not quite at that superstar prospect age vs level that the #1s and and 2/3s are. Caminero was barely 20 when he was promoted to MLB (and his monster age 19 season at AA yielded a 17% K rate), Holliday carved up AA at age 19 with a ~20% K rate. Our guy is 21 at AA with a 27.5% K rate, which could be higher, as it's prone to noise, and he's been worse his whole career. The good news for EmRod is that it appears all the superstar prospects are disappearing to the majors, and with the recent meh draft, the top few won't be as strong as they've been recently. I just don't believe the predictive components that get a guy that highly ranked will favor him. And not to bring up Julien, but there are reasons why Julien's 2022 monster season at Wichita didn't get him ranked very high. He was 23, his K rate was 25%, and he wasn't top 100 pre-2023 by the big lists. I think EmRod will be ranked much higher than Julien because of age vs level, but the strikeouts will limit his ceiling on lists.
  13. twinstalker
    Zebby I thought didn't look as bad as the trouble he caused himself. It would have been nice to get strikes called when he hit the corners. I hope the outing doesn't mess with his head. He'll do fine if he just keeps keeping on and learning along the way.
  14. twinstalker
    K. Culpepper now to face the level of competition he faced in college. Let's hope he does well, especially with the predictors. Low k rate, high exit velocity, barrels, that sort of thing. Unfortunately, picks B Kyle DeBarge and C Billy Amick haven't shown all that well at Fort Myers yet. Both should be going to Cedar Rapids with Culpepper in your average scenario. FWIW, I liked neither pick but did like their fourth guy, Dasan Hill. I don't really understand the DeBarge pick except in the most base way: vs bad college competition he looked like Luke Keaschall looked vs good college competition. I think this was a scouting department failure along the lines of Noah Miller (different profile). With Amick I think it was super obvious he'll never hit. I'm not all that fond of the Culpepper pick, either. Basically, the draft ran out of really good college hitters early, and that meant it was a crapshoot when the Twins were up. I probably would have reached for the Kentucky OF if I stayed with the normal strategy, but this may have been the year to take a chance on a HS kid like Slade Caldwell, someone with a great hit tool. But Culpepper may be as good as any here, so while I would have passed, showing xbh power and low K rate starting in A+ and above will satisfy me they did as well as a reasonable person might expect. I would have grabbed P Trey Yesavage had he lasted one more pick.
  15. twinstalker
    I hope this isn't an omen. I had a bad feeling today, one that made me feel like losing today could start a slide that might not end until September. We were up 4-0 at the time. Now I see this, and it makes me queasy. Also, I've been trying to remember when Kirby went to batting 3rd. I thought it was earlier 1986, but it may have been 1987.
  16. twinstalker
    I realize this pertains to only four MLB pitchers, but that's included here, too. Zebby Morris Lewis Festa SWR (with apologies, I'm looking at attainable upside a few years down the road vs probability of getting to MLB as a starter) Culpepper Bengard/Soto Varland is going to be a reliever as soon as the pipeline pushes everybody through, maybe before.
  17. twinstalker
    Except he passed the major college test already, and this level is a half step back. Jenkins didn't take a step back to "prove" himself. Not to argue in a petty way (too late?), but I think A+ is where there would be difficulty if he's not the guy they thought he was in college, the Lemon Test. If he strikes out 25% of the time there or can't barrel the ball, etc., that's trouble. My initial downside thoughts when drafted were that he wouldn't end up at shortstop, wouldn't produce much power, and potentially would strike out too much for that profile. His small sample isolated power in wooden bat Cape Cod League was .048, which might suggest problems. He's got athleticism, and I'm under the impression he has a quick bat. That might be good for a decent hit tool. But the 21st pick in the draft isn't usually a good to very good MLBer, and his consensus was lower than 21 by quite a bit. And the Twins have generally not done well taking a guy a guy higher than consensus (that is, there is nothing special about Twins' scouting). I don't know what to think, though. Sometimes it's just all about adapting, and KC might be good there, we'll see. Royce Lewis adapted, Trevor Larnach not so much, though he started with power. At this point, I think the range of outcomes is very wide, from a cup of coffee guy to a regular. I'd be shocked if he were more than than or less than that, but he could easily be a non-power Yunior Severino if things don't go right. He's only three years behind YS. There needs to be fielding value and hit value, the latter of which will show itself in minor league strikeout rate, probably. 15% (at A+ on) good, 25+% bad, class A+ and above. Culpepper, like Winokur, is around #20 in my rankings until I see him succeed in the step up that A+ is. If KC is treading water at age 22 in Cedar Rapids, that's bad value, bad on Twins scouting. Lemon Test still to come. :-)
  18. twinstalker
    Hit tool questionable (likely not good, but...variation) and strikeout rate poor. He seems to be an average to decent player in A with those negatives. The main positive is age vs level, which is better than average currently (for a true prospect). At this point he's a wait-and-see. And he's probably around #20 in this suddenly booming system.
  19. twinstalker
    DrewMo!
  20. twinstalker
    Based on his innings pitched this year and the past few, I don't think the Twins give him any more than 30 IP between MLB and AAA the rest of the way. It's just a year too soon to help much, but I don't doubt he could help for a game or more if things go well.
  21. twinstalker
    Thanks, always enjoyable. Love the Mauer note, that's impressive. One omission is why Hrbek's last game came on August 10. Some (younger?) people might guess it had to do with the hit by pitch! Killebrew was in a slump, no doubt due to the pressure of #500. Back then 500 was the magical number of all magical numbers, more so than 3000 hits. I remember listening many nights to the radio thinking he may never get it. I'm not sure why I missed it that night, but I did and read it in the local northern Iowa paper the next day. In a weird way it bothered me that he hit #501 that same game. Even as a little kid I thought it showed fallibility in one of my heroes that he could quickly hit another with the pressure off. :-) Killer's bad year to that point was one of the reasons the Twins were bad that year. Another reason was Carew hadn't gotten back to full Carew-ness after his 1970 injury. After this game, he was batting .275 with a .318 obp (he was batting .376 when he got hurt June 22, 1970). Researched, obv. It was the beginning of a long drought (with a few interesting seasons) that lasted until the 1987 season. Lastly, as I was looking at 1970 stats, I noticed Minnie Mendoza played a little for Twins and...wait for it...batted .188, which, in his 16 ABs, was the closest he could possibly come to .200. Another hit in there would have had him at .250. The Mendoza Line was real!
  22. twinstalker
    I can't think of a worse decision than extending Castro. Twins have a year of control left, and there's an argument to be made to trade him. Keaschall and Eeles hold the same positional value and will likely hit and be ready in 2025 or 2026. Lee will be the backup shortstop option. What Castro makes next year is the amount he'd likely have to be paid for however many years the Twins would extend him. If the Twins aren't increasing payroll, this is the type of player they could trade if the others are ready. Unfortunately, Keaschall/Eeles may not be ready for next year. They could be, though. Or they may have to be. If it doesn't stunt their payroll, let Castro play out his last year. If it does, trade him. Or trade him to open up the money he makes to help elsewhere.
  23. twinstalker
    It could be poor fielding behind him, but that's not usually the answer. My guess is there are hard hit rate and similar stats that aren't so great. He's not throwing fly balls, but he's getting hit really hard. Conjecture on my part. If I'm right, it's still something that can improve, but it would require Hall to get better.
  24. twinstalker
    I think there's a stat somewhere for taking extra bases, which would be a better thing to look at, since it adjusts for production afterwards.
  25. twinstalker
    Just as I disparage Tanner Schobel in another comment section here!
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