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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Urias doesn’t have options. He has hit below .200 the last two seasons. He also appears to have a passable but borderline glove to play SS. He probably needs to be a better defender at SS to get a major league contract in a utility role. He probably needs to show a better bat to get a major league contract as a starting 2B or 3B. His best option is to look for a minor league deal with a team that has infielders with an injury history in front of him. The Twins fit that description. I would rather add him on a minor league deal than a veteran back up SS in the decline phase of their career on a major league contract. No to Paul DeJong type. Yes to a minor league deal to 28 year old with some major league success
  2. jorgenswest
    The four players who earned the extra picked all were elite prospects. Two of them peaked at #1 and the other two at #2. Jenkins is near that territory. The other two are not. I think Rodriguez can help this team this year. He should be in strong consideration for a starting outfield job. I think he can combine good defense with a wRC+ over 100 as a result of walks and power combined with a mediocre batting average. That won’t win a rookie of the year crown but will help the Twins win games. Would there be incentive for the Twins not to promote him at all hoping that another year of development will help earn the extra pick in 2026? I wouldn’t think so but the incentive can work both ways.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe the splits show inconsistency or necessarily suggest an improved skill level. I think the right handed side is simply the result of the small sample any player would have against a left handed pitcher. It takes a very large number of plate appearances for slash stats to stabilize. If I only had the BR stat lines to judge improvement of skill level in splits, I think I would track the strike out rate and walk rates over time. They stabilize much quicker. If the strikeout rates showed significant improvement I would be hopeful.
  4. jorgenswest
    The strikeout and walk rates in the low minors can be deceptive. Some pitchers have stuff so good that the over challenged batters make so little contact and every count goes deep. That lack of contact and deep counts leads to an increase in walks (and strikeouts) as opposed to weak contact outs. I would be more concerned about a pitcher that relies and weak contact outs with lower strike out and walk rates up to AA. I think that weak contact will progress to solid contact too often as they move up the ladder. The Twins would have much better data to analyze whether the walks are a result of poor command or deep counts. With the data I can see I would prefer the high strikeout and walk pitcher in the lower minors to the high contact low walk rate pitcher.
  5. jorgenswest
    Experience leads to instinct. It is possible he will become a passable centerfielder. His bat is his ticket though. He needs to get on base at a high rate to have a career. How much should we get worked up about an OAA of -4 across 33 starts in centerfield? Is that about one out every 8 games? Certainly the Twins have bigger problems than that to fix. If he can get on base it seems like he should be able to make up for that in a bench role even if the improvement with experience doesn’t get him to the positive side of the ledger.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they are poor at evaluating defensive skill. I think they prioritize batting as they drafted players like Julien, Keaschall, Steer and Schobel. They all moved infield positions in college. If any of them had the defensive skill to play exclusively at SS in college and stay their through the minors they would have been drafted earlier. In Julien’s case he moved from 2B to 3B. The Twins had to know that they were going to be questionable to stay up the middle. College shortstops don’t often stick at shortstop but particularly if they played significant time at other positions. Similarly if they end as college 2Bs they often move to a corner by the time they get to the majors. The days of the good glove/weak bat middle infielder is gone. A good bat is critical. I do wonder if Keaschall’s bat appears ready before his glove as was Julien’s case two years ago, should they bring him up? Should they have patience to let his glove develop at 2B or CF in AAA?
  7. jorgenswest
    The Orioles’ trade for Burnes happened right after the proposed sale was announced though the sale wasn’t approved and finalized until about two months later. The Twins have been quiet this winter as the sale process has moved forward. A sign that a deal is imminent might be a trade for someone like Cease.
  8. jorgenswest
    The data I have is such a small sample to make comparisons. It would be small after just one full season but his was cut shorter than that. I value the eyes of the skilled scouts much more at this age and limited play. Of everyone in the minor leagues he was number 3 (actually number 2 since Sasaki was not a minor leaguer). That is really significant.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am excited about Jenkins. A prospect at number 3 overall is very meaningful. It is great to have Rodriguez at 37 though a player at 37 is probably closer in talent level to the #100 prospect than the #10 prospect. Once it gets beyond the top 40 or 50 there may not be much separating those guys from the top 250. The Tigers have 5 and 6. I would trade our prospect pool for their prospect pool. I don’t think I would do that with any other team in the AL Central.
  10. jorgenswest
    The return would be Cease and a comp pick. I think the most valuable piece listed is Keaschall. I would be willing to deal Keaschall plus an arm for a year of Cease and a comp pick. I think that deal would be most comparable to the deal for Burnes and competitive enough to get the ears of the Padres as they listen to the interest from other teams.
  11. jorgenswest
    I see some parallels to Spencer Steer. They can run the bases, have a little power, possibly stretched in the middle of the field, put up 138/143 wRC+ in AA and college infielders. Will he stay in the middle of the field or eventually be a 1B/LF? Is there enough power potential to be a plus bat on a corner? I have enough wonders to think this might be the sell high point. A middle of the field prospect has more value than a corner player. At one point Jose Miranda was tearing up AA/AAA playing 2B/3B with a wRC+ of 158. Now we wonder if he has a plus bat as a 1B. Spencer Steer played 1B/LF with an OPS+ of 96 last year. I would sell high if he brought an impact starter to the Twins.
  12. jorgenswest
    No one knows what the Twins will do with payroll. Last year the proposed sale of the Orioles was announced in January 30. They made the deal for Corbin Burnes on February 1. The sale wasn’t approved until the end of March but I have to believe that deal was the new ownerships interest. Burnes is a good comp. Someone is going to offer a similar package for Cease. It is going to hurt to get Cease, I would pay the price.
  13. jorgenswest
    Corbin Burnes was traded for shortstop Joey Ortiz and LHP D.L. Hall, as well as the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Hall was 25 and maybe lost a little of his prospect status. Ortiz also made appearance in the bottom half of the top 100 prospects. Burnes was coming off a season of 3.5 rWAR (3 year of 13.1) and Cease is coming off a season of 4.2 WAR (3 year of 13.0). I think a Cease deal would approach the Burnes deal. That is a lot to give up. I get the arguments about the offense isn’t contender caliber. I would go for it anyway and trade Keaschall with a pitcher. Hall did drop in status and looked more like a reliever at the time of the trade. I would start by offering Keaschall and Varland. They will probably get a better offer so it might take a better pitcher or third player. I would consider doing either. As for the salary arguments I don’t think a deal for Cease and the increase in payroll would drop the franchise value. It might even make a potential owner more interested. The Pohlad’s could be committing someone else’s money at this point. A deal like this might be a sign that the Pohlad’s don’t expect to own the Twins too much longer.
  14. jorgenswest
    Should any trade for Cease be thought of as a trade for Cease and a comp pick?
  15. jorgenswest
    Topa’s velocity on his primary pitch (sinker) was 92 at the end of the season and reported in the 90-92 range in his rehab. His velocity was 95 in Seattle the previous season. Injuries cause decline and age causes decline. I am hopeful but not optimistic on Topa. If his velocity on the sinker is 95 this spring I will be optimistic. Sands went the opposite direction with velocity adding 2 mph to his fastball. I think that is real so I am optimistic. Relievers can be one year mirages but often there is a clue in their BABiP or their ERA estimators are not in line with ERA. In Sands case his BABIP from last year is sustainable and his ERA estimators were in line with his actual ERA.
  16. jorgenswest
    What would a normal season look like from Topa? Is it the 2023 season or any of his others? 2023 appears to be an outlier to me. I will be watching his velocity this spring. It was down last spring before the injury. If his sinker and cutter are at his 2023 levels I will be encouraged. If not, I hope they use an option and see if he can work his way back.
  17. jorgenswest
    I assume they aren’t looking at baseball reference or Fangraphs to make decisions. They would have so much more as well as the skilled eyes of their trained staff. I don’t have the data or the skilled eyes so I stand by…
  18. jorgenswest
    Why trust any of the three? Choosing any as better than the other is folly all need more sample. In multiple years OOPS and FIP become relevant before ERA for major leaguer relievers. In a full career I would trust ERA. In the context on Henriquez I trust strikeouts and walks as I stated. I would add that I trust velocity but it isn’t as easy to find.
  19. jorgenswest
    With relievers it is really difficult to use any of the plate appearance result based stats other than strikeout/walk rates and maybe ground ball rate. The stabilization point of the components of OOPS at the major league level is over 600 batters faced. The most for Henriquez in a season line is 412 and that was when he was primarily a starter. If you want to look at platoon splits the sample becomes even smaller. There is just too much out of a pitcher’s control once a ball is put in play. We could look at multiyear data to get a larger sample but that doesn’t work so well for a minor leaguer who is playing at different levels and hopefully improving their skill level from year to year. I would probably go with the younger Henriquez to start the season over Topa or Tonkin but I can’t back it up with any data.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is a make or break spring for Henriquez. Is it best to use FIP for a reliever? Doesn’t it rely on home run rate which stabilizes at something over 1000 batters faced? A reliever isn’t going to come near that sample. I do remember reading something about mistake rate and location rate and a claim that they stabilize pretty quickly. If mistakes are leading to more home runs there might be an answer in that data. I don’t know how to find that data but I imagine the Twins have it. I do recall that Ober was among the MLB pitchers with a low mistake rate in 2023. I agree he needs to be better. I think he improved enough to remain on the 40 this winter. Now he needs to step it up to win and maintain a job with the Twins.
  21. jorgenswest
    Five catchers on the 40 doesn’t seem sustainable so at least one will be moved or DFA’d. How well did the Twins utilize three catchers in 2019 and 2021 when Astudillo was on the roster? I can see Gasper in that role if he can be an above average major league hitter and effective pinch hitter. He needs to be a better hitter than Astudillo. I can’t see the value in having any other combination of three catchers from the remaining four. How would it help?
  22. jorgenswest
    I would add that he was a minor league free agent after 2022 also. His 2024 BABIP was .148. His swinging strike rate of 9.3% would have been the lowest amount the Twins bullpen last year other a few pitchers that pitched very little.. Overt was 9.9% and Richards was 9.4%. That poor rate doesn’t fit with the claim of being among the best left handed relievers in the NL. Relievers are put in too many situations where it is really helpful to get a swinging strike. A .148 BABIP was extremely helpful last year but not sustainable to this year.
  23. jorgenswest
    It seems like it should be added that the Twins had 42 starts (25.9%) on 4 days rest last year without implementing a 6 man rotation. I also noticed that they did much better on 4 days rest than 5 or 6.
  24. jorgenswest
    Ranked 24th by MLB.com. Johan de los Santos ranked 23rd got 2.25 million. The guys following were between 1.1 and 1.4 million. Are you complaining that the Twins might have got a discount by signing one of their scouts kids?
  25. jorgenswest
    Thanks. A few notes on draft position leaders. Graig Nettles is the career WAR leader at #74 with 67.9. He edged David Cone. Dave Goltz is the leader at #97 with 23.1 WAR. Randy Jones is second with 17.7 Rick Dempsey is the leader at #297 with 25.1 WAR. No one else is close. Bert Blyleven is the career leader at #55 at 94.5. Rob Wilfong has the most WAR at #316 with 7.5 Lyman Bostock leads at #596 with 13.1 Butch Wynegar had the most WAR among players drafted in the second round in 1974 but his 26.5 is third among #38 picks.
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