jorgenswest

I would go for it and part with significant prospects to build a team that can make it through the playoffs. I wouldn’t add a back end starter or a middle reliever or a bat that doesn’t push everyone else a spot down in the line up. If this isn’t the year to go for it then I would stick with what I have and listen to offers for players on expiring contracts. No need to call unless the starting offer is already an overpay.

I agree with the sentiment that it is time to get past the Vazquez contract. He slots between Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez and I would take Vazquez over either. Garver spends more time at DH than catcher. Sanchez has been no help this year. Danny Jansen is in there also with the same AAV though he can opt out and may do so thinking he can get better than 12 million. It is deceptive to rank any veteran at a position by salary. I shouldn’t be comparing him to a pool of all catchers. Most catchers have not hit free agency and are getting a salary below the market they would get as a free agent. As for Vazquez I would prefer Jansen among his peers but glad to have him over Sanchez and Garver. I don’t know how to measure his value to the pitcher/catcher room but I believe it to be among the best in the game. Glad to have Vazquez. Nice game yesterday but nailing that runner at third earlier this year was even better. The Twins bought themselves three years to develop a cost controlled young catcher with his contract. The Twins have not made any progress developing that catcher. That is the real failure.

Who would you put next on the list? Any sleepers taking a big step this year?

MacPhail did talk about a new pitching cadence plan in the minors. But not of these pitchers are on that new cadence. These four are in the same 6 day starter cadence they have used in the minors for a while. Of the four I think Prielipp is their best pitching prospect. He has shown success above A-Ball. The difference between his strike out rate and walk rate is elite like Hill’s but he is so much closer.

I have the same hope for Miranda and Julien as I had for Wallner last year. Wallner struggled in his return to AAA for 6 weeks before turning things around the next 6 weeks. It is encouraging to see Miranda’s walk rate up and strike out rate down. His last 8 or so games have shown some signs to be encouraged. Really nice game from Julien. They gave Wallner about 300 AAA plate appearances last year to turn things around. I will wait and see how Miranda and Julien loom at 300 PAs before giving up on them. So far they aren’t even half way there yet. Great article from @Nick Nelson about Randy Dobnak story before the hand injury.

On this week’s episode of Inside Twins Drew MacPhail spoke about a pitching plan in the minors that looks to a scheduled four day rotation. They chose pitchers that were not in a starting rotation spot and are giving them a scheduled 4 day cadence in a quasi-starter role pitching 3-4 innings. Travis Adams game log in AAA fits this cadence. The claim is that they are getting more innings than some of their starters and they have seen the strikeout numbers tick up. I went searching for these pitchers on this 4 day cadence other than Adams. Looking at the game logs the group in Wichita was the easiest to identify. Wichita has probably had less interruption in their schedule due to rain helping to keep the cadence at four days. The four quasi starters at Wichita have been John Klein, Mike Paredes, Justin Whorff and Pierson Ohl. There is evidence of others on the same schedule but Wichita had the most clear group. The first claim was that they were matching or surpassing innings of the starters. Not quite. Klein and Paredes have near the same amount of innings as Baker and Rozek who are a 6 day starter schedule. The second claim is that the numbers are improved. Klein has improved in all areas. Strikeout rate is up from 20% to 28%. Walks have dropped 1%. His ERA, xFIP and FIP are clearly better. Last year he threw 100 innings in a starter role. He is on pace to match or better that with his 44 this year. Paredes has gone the opposite direction with his strike out and walk rates. His ERA is better though at 2.49. He is on pace to significantly increase his innings pitched. He is already at 43. Last year he threw 65 innings in a relief role. Whorff was moved to AAA but spent most of this year in AA. In AA his strike out rate went from 24 to 30 and walk rates dropped from 9 to 5.5. His ERA, xFIP and FIP are all improved. He has 34.2 innings this year. Last year he had 71. Ohl started the season late due to injury and joined Wichita on April 25. His strike out rate has gone from 24 to 30 while his walk rate remains below 4%. ERA, xFIP and FIP are much improved over 2024. His innings (32.2) may not match last year’s (102) due to the later start. MacPhail said that the hope is that pitchers will see improved success and be able to build back really well with this 4 day quasi-starter cadence. He ended with that maybe it something we will see in the major leagues with the Minnesota Twins. So far the cadence for the starters in the minors has not changed. They pitch about every 6 days. I think we would see some changes with that starter cadence before we see it in the major leagues. What might that look like? Do they use 8 pitchers in a 4 day cadence planning to get into the 7th or 8th before handing it off to the 5 man bullpen? Is it one group of 4 starters on that cadence with a 9 man pen? Can they afford to have the typical 5 man starting staff and 4 pitchers in the pen scheduled every 4th day leaving 4 unscheduled pitchers in the pen? All teams need to be seeking ways to keep their pitchers healthy while improving their performance. I am glad the Twins are looking for ways to accomplish those goals with their minor league staffs.

Looks like they are going to need an 8th starter. They should probably move rule 5 pick up (minor league phase) Trent Baker to St. Paul. Give him a chance against better competition.

Woods Richardson had two good starts and a third where he allowed three home runs. The Saints also hit 2 home runs that day. Sometimes the ball flies there. Still a bad start but over three starts and 17 innings he struck out 19 and walked 4.

Might not just be pitchers. The A’s have 6 pitchers and 5 position players on the IL though three predate the season. Others have been injured and activated.

The White Sox have used Mike Vasil in that role. He has one appearance following an opener so that is more of a starter than a long reliever but even without it he averages 2 innings an appearance. The A’s use Mitch Spence in that role though they use an opener quite a bit so he has some appearances where he was a bulk reliever. He still averages less than 2 innings a relief appearance. I don’t think the Twins should try to copy two of the worst teams in baseball by assigning that role to a specific pitcher. A third pitcher to consider is Ben Casparius from the Dodgers. He is averaging nearly two innings a relief appearance. Looking at his game log insome of those he was in more of a starter role where he followed an opener because the Dodgers had some injury trouble. In his 20 other appearances 7 (35%) have gone at least two innings. Funderburk has 3 of 9(33%) of 2 innings and that number would likely be greater if he was effective. The traditional long relief role in baseball is no longer. Bullpens are too heavily used and teams can’t have a pitcher throw 3+ innings and be unavailable for several days. Instead a shuttle to AAA or the DFA route is used to fill that last spot. The Twins used Dobnak, McCaughan and Blewett in the role. Funderburk has been in that role and now they need another arm that can take on those innings. It is Travis Adams turn. It is up to Travis Adams to take this opportunity and move up the bullpen ladder. Cole Sands and Griffin Jax made the most of the opportunity. Funderburk and Alcala haven’t taken advantage. The long reliever role in baseball still exists but it is a revolving door. Travis Adams has just entered the door. Success in that role can result in someone else going out.

It might be important to not that Suarez has 13 of his 16 home runs at home. His OPS at home is 1.025 and on the road .580. Last year he hit 18 of his 30 home runs at home. In a three year sample his wRC+ numbers on the road have been 91, 102 and 60 vs. 118, 130 and 174 at home. The last two years were in an Arizona park that suits him well. The team trading for him to expect a below average hitter where all of his contributions will come from home runs which will be less frequent as he won’t be playing in Arizona very often. I would not expect him to be a massive upgrade or someone I want batting in the top 4 of the line up.

Will he stick at catcher? Do you think his development as a catcher is a factor in the decision to keep him in CR for now?

Wallner just came back from a significant injury. Did we expect he was going to play every day upon return? I don’t think he even played back to back days in the field during rehab which is often part of the progression.

Like the look at Martinez. Little risk but no positional flexibility. Suarez is a lot of strike outs and only a 3B/DH. I am not confident he will be better fit the rest of the way than the options they have in house.

I still think outfield and possibly 1B will be the best supply for a top of the line up left handed bat. As long as Clemens and Castro are hitting an additional outfielder will not stop them from getting playing time.

I looked at last year’s team and they weren’t nearly as clean. I found three over 70% in Jax at 75% followed by Alcala(72%) and then Duran(71%). I wondered about Alcala and his propensity this year to give up crooked numbers. The Twins team numbers pitching overall have virtually the same OPS against whether there are runners on or not. That isn’t true about Alcala over his career and particularly in the last few years. His OPS against with the bases empty is much lower than his OPS against with runners on base. I am not sure if it is meaningful. Could it mean that he has poorer command either shown by walks or hard hit balls when pitching from the stretch?

I am willing to give up a lot in prospect capital. Alternatively I would do little. Either go big and try to be a contender or stay with the current roster and hope to get in as a wild card. They have some critical elements for a successful playoff with their pitchers. They need another top of the line up bat. That won’t be cheap.

Agree on the left handed bat. A left handed outfield bat works for me too. It is easier to find left handed bats in the outfield (or 1B) since they can throw left handed at those positions. I have no concerns at all if they have three good left handed bats in the outfield in addition to Buxton. It wasn’t to long ago that the starting outfield was Castro, Bader and McCusker followed soon by Kiersey, Clemens and Castro.

I don’t see the need at third base and don’t think I would trade assets for a third baseman. I do see really poor bats thus far from Lewis and Miranda but the first two months of the season is not a great projector of the next two months. Besides Miranda and Lewis they have Castro, Lee, Clemens and Bride. I would frame the need is a bat for the middle of the line up regardless of position. That bat may come from within. I think the two positions that are the thinnest are catcher and outfield. If I prioritized where I would get the bat it would be outfield. Someone like Jaren Duran would really be helpful. There is plenty of space in the line up to use Buxton, Duran, Wallner and Larnach when they are all healthy.

Years ago my son had a soccer coach from Tanzania that called a shut out by a goalie a clean sheet. I was thinking about that reading @Riverbrian’s comment in the Jorge Alcala topic. How often do our relievers enter the game do their job? A clean sheet. I will define a clean sheet as no runs scored whether their own or inherited or ghost. I went to baseball reference to count and below is the data. Varland 21/30 Duran 23/28 Jax 20/28 Sands 17/27 Topa 15/21 Alcala 14/20 Coulombe 18/19 Stewart 13/17 Funderburk 4/8 Clean sheets is a measure of opportunity like WPA. If Varland comes in with the bases loaded and no outs his opportunity for a clean sheet is pretty remote. Some sheets are easier to keep clean than others. Some relievers come in to put out fires more often. Some are asked to pitch across multiple innings more often. Some see the top of the line up more often. Some leave a big mess on those sheets more often than others. This reflects how often they have done their job acknowledging that not all jobs are the same. I am not sure what it means other than I appreciate how often the Twins relievers have come in and done their job this year.

Wouldn’t it be on Sunday? If they pitch Festa today then I think we know it will be Woods Richardson on Sunday. They might also consider pitching Festa on Friday and giving an extra day rest to Paddack and Ryan.

Alcala pitched well yesterday. It was his 14th (of 20) appearance where he has given up no runs while pitching at least an inning. I looked to his game log to see if there was any pattern to his appearances where he has given up multiple runs. None of those appearances were on the second end of a back to back or after long layoffs. One was game 2 and the others had one or two days off in between. If you look at the splits his 6+ days rest numbers look bad but that is his bad first appearance of the season in game 2 which is part of 6+ days rest data and shouldn’t be. If everyone is healthy I think he is the 8th man in the pen with Funderburk behind him. That is a tenuous position because when the bullpen gets overburdened they will call up reinforcements and he will be the next guy to go. Until that happens or they add a reliever from outside the organization I don’t think they have anyone that is a better option.

I would stick with Alcala over any of the relief options in AAA. He was pretty effective in 2024and I think he has a better shot at matching that going forward than any of the other options.

I wondered about adding Del Castillo in my reply but worried about his shoulder injury. Last year runners were already successful on 27 of 29 stolen base attempts before the injury. Do you think he will stick at catcher? I know you really pay attention to catchers . What do you think of Miguel Amaya from the Cubs? Unfortunately he is out with an oblique injury right now.

It is early for a trade. I think they need him to continue this stretch through the all star break before teams are desperate enough to overpay. They should be listening though. I think injury is as likely as regression. Is there a catcher with some control that is ready to help in the major leagues this year? I suggested the Cubs Miguel Amaya in @Trov’s thread but he has an injured oblique now. I am not sure Dalton Rushing is as ready but he would be an overpay that I am looking for if the Dodgers are desperate. Are the Red Sox buyers? Are they ready to make room for Roman Anthony? Jaren Duran is having a bit of an off year and has a reasonable team option for next year. He is rumored in trade talks and would fit the Twins line up. I think they need another true lefty and their is space for all three left handed hitting outfielders and Buxton if they are all healthy, I am sure the response is going to be no way they get that return but that is the point. Starting pitching is always a premium. No teams have enough. For a contender to move on from a starting pitcher they really need to be blown away. The Twins should be listening.