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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I'm sure that's part of the thought process. I think the difference in percentages of being close to the line between Santana and France is telling. They trusted Santana's range more. I'd bet Bell is much closer to France's number than Santana's. The more you trust your 1B the further away you're comfortable with them playing.
  2. chpettit19
    They have a long way to go still.
  3. chpettit19
    Manipulate maybe wasn't the best word to use. They aren't trying to trick the system, that's just the result of asking their 1B to do less than other teams. If you have your guy playing on the line 80+% of the time you aren't asking him to get to balls in the hole 80+% of the time. That throws off the algorithm because there are fewer chances for a player to go negative when they're not asked to cover as much ground.
  4. chpettit19
    I maybe shouldn't have used "manipulate." I don't think they're doing things on purpose to get better OAA numbers for their guys, it's just a byproduct of moving their 1B closer to the line. The algorithm doesn't expect them to get to as many balls to their right because they're further away so they have fewer negative marks. What they've done is lower their ask for 1B. Just guard the line and catch throws. Much harder to go negative when the space you're asked to cover is smaller.
  5. chpettit19
    It doesn't. That's the point. They moved them closer to the line so there are fewer balls to their right that the algorithm expects them to get to. They aren't improving performance, they're limiting the expectations. Guard the line and get to the base quickly for throws. They've cut down on the amount of ground they're asking their 1B to cover and the algorithms spit out drastically different data because of it.
  6. chpettit19
    You are describing a player that simply cannot be on an MLB roster for any real amount of time. You have 1 backup catcher and 3 other guys on your bench. Burning a bench spot by the end of the 5th inning every game is simply not a real plan. You can't roster these guys. Well, you SHOULDN'T roster these guys. The Twins seem to find ways to do it quite frequently.
  7. chpettit19
    Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics. Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go. Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2 Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4 Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10. I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.
  8. chpettit19
    We need to get beyond the idea of "success at a cost of 7 million." Ty France was a "success at the cost of 1 million," but he didn't help the team win baseball games. They don't give out division titles or World Series births for getting the best deals. You have to have real, actual, above average talent to do that. Teams in the Twins tax bracket need to get their "success at a cost..." production from league minimum guys, preferably with options left. If the Twins are spending $7 million on a free agent, they need much more than a good deal, they need real, above average production. Bell has never been "close to average" on defense. He's awful. If they plan to play him regularly at all at 1B, they're going to have the worst infield defense in baseball.
  9. chpettit19
    I'm pretty notorious for not caring much about coaching at all. But I couldn't have faith in the current staff because they're yet another new group.
  10. chpettit19
    Oh, I'm certainly hoping there's a dozen statistical outliers. I just don't judge moves based on that hope. I don't hate this move. It's the type of move I expected. I just don't love the move either. It's defensible and I hope Bell does well.
  11. chpettit19
    Bader brought elite defense. That was always going to be the case. He was always going to be useful in that way. He's an awful comp here. And he had .9 WAR in 2024. If that isn't "touching 1" I don't know what is. His problem was health. He had .6 WAR in 98 games in 2023. Could Bell put up a 130 OPS+? Sure. Julien could, too. Lewis could put up 160. Wallner 150. Larnach 125. Then the Twins are winning the division by 10 games and fighting for a title. "Can" is a terrible metric. What are the likelihoods? That's all that matters. Falvey has been building off the "can" for years and it's gone very poorly because the most likely outcomes are the ones that keep happening. The strategy of "if everybody has career years, we're golden" is a bad strategy. We certainly all hope it happens every year but expecting it is bad team building. It's what the Twins have been doing for years. And it's why they continue to struggle.
  12. chpettit19
    You don't even need WAR to show Josh Bell is a below average 1B/DH. His offensive numbers alone do that. He played 1B 33 times last year because he's terrible there. Has been his whole career. That isn't a new idea. He was the DH 98 times. Amongst DHs with 100 PAs at the "position," he ranked 35th in OPS. 36th in slug. 28th in OBP. 40th in Avg. Don't need WAR to tell you that those numbers aren't good for one of the worst defenders in baseball.
  13. chpettit19
    Sure. I'll take the under on Josh Bell being a 2-3 WAR bat. I mean he hasn't even sniffed 1 WAR in 3 years. That is just not a reasonable projection for him. Do I hope he does that? Absolutely. But a realistic projection for Josh Bell is 0 WAR.
  14. chpettit19
    How many DHs in baseball make 15 million a year? 4. And the Rangers are not at all happy paying Joc that. Are you suggesting teams will put Josh Bell in that category after he puts up 1 season? He better put up Schwarber numbers this year if he's going to get that. I'll take the under.
  15. chpettit19
    Yeah, I don't think it's a terrible move, but that's because I expect them to be out of it by the end of April and the Pohlads to tell Falvey to dump the rest of Bell's salary. I don't hate the move because I think they'll trade him, I just don't think it's the plan as of December 15, 2025. I lean towards him just trying to save his job, but if he didn't think this team was any good he'd trade Ryan for sure, and I truly don't think he has any intention of doing it.
  16. chpettit19
    Oh, I don't at all know better. I 100% believe Falvey is trying to compete in 2026. I don't know if he believes they can actually pull it off or if he's just making 1 last gasp effort to save his job, but I have been saying since the deadline I didn't think he was blowing things up in any real sense (in his mind) and was going to try to compete in 2026. I fully and completely believe Derek Falvey thinks he just made a meaningful deal that will help this team be good in 2026.
  17. chpettit19
    His career splits are actually quite similar. Adding another lefty only bat to the DH pile isn't very useful. He needs to get back to his career numbers against lefties or he's not all that useful here. And he played 33 games at 1B last year. How much many more days off in the field does he need? It isn't an awful move by any means. But let's not make Josh Bell into more than he is.
  18. chpettit19
    The Twins are trying to claim they are trying to be a good team, though. And people here are going to claim the same thing, and point to this signing as a reason to believe they can be. I'm on a crusade to make it known far and wide that the Twins are not going to be the team so many want them to be until we stop accepting that these are top half of the order hitters. We've been so conditioned now that people are really struggling to look at the team and compare it realistically to what the actual good lineups look like. I've made it my mission to annoy everyone by pointing this out constantly.
  19. chpettit19
    Yet another bat being presented as a "top half of the order" hitter who has no business hitting there on a good team. His last 3 OPS+ marks were 101, 100, and 110. We need to stop pretending like these are bats that make the team competitive if they're in the top half. They aren't. We've had this same problem since 2019. Kepler and Larnach are the 2 players that stand out most to me as getting way too many ABs in the top 4 or 5 of the lineup and people using them hitting there as proof the team can't/shouldn't move on from them. They aren't actually top half of the lineup bats. Not on real contenders, at least. Josh Bell is more of the same. The Twins have been "raising the floor" for years. That floor keeps getting lower and lower. I don't think this "raise the floor" plan is working very well. This isn't some egregious move. It's not a bad move in a vacuum. If you can flip him at the deadline for any sort of piece at all, that's not bad. But the idea that these types of moves are going to turn a 70-win team into a contender for the division is ridiculous. Their only hope remains that half the returning lineup puts up career years. You can judge for yourself how likely you think that is. This move didn't move the needle in any serious way. Maybe 1 more win.
  20. chpettit19
    Boras doing Boras things. I assume the option was added as a way to spread out the money. I can't imagine either side has any plans to actually reunite for 2027, but it gave the Twins a way to pay him part now and part in 2027 so Boras demanded the total be a little higher for that manipulation by the Twins.
  21. chpettit19
    Not a whole lot to say about this one. Far prefer his bat to Clemens, but he's yet another DH on this team. For his career he's been pretty balanced between his numbers against lefties and righties, but last year he was atrocious against lefties. The hope has to be that he bounces back from that as he'll start every day against them while he's healthy and with the Twins. At this point it's an unsurprising "meh" of a deal. He doesn't significantly improve their odds of even competing in the central, but maybe it's a good sign that they went out and got someone before February. Hopefully more moves to come.
  22. chpettit19
    1 year, 7 million with a mutual option for 2027.
  23. chpettit19
    Not sure where they'd want to put Larnach. Wouldn't think he's pushing Ward, Cowser, or Beavers out of the outfield or pushing Alonso, Rutschman or Basallo out of the DH rotation. Weirder things have happened, but I can't imagine Larnach is high on their list of desires from the Twins. I'd think it's pitching, pitching, and more pitching that they'd ask for.
  24. chpettit19
    Baseball Savant
  25. chpettit19
    Mountcastle would be such a disappointing move, but I think it's probably a realistic one. I don't think Mayo is realistic. Mayo would cost current pitching talent, and if the Twins are moving that they need to go full rebuild and they don't appear to have any real plans to do that. Mountcastle would be yet another uninspiring, 1 year addition that doesn't move the needle in a meaningful way. Unfortunately, I think Mountcastle is a real possibility if they can't get Hoskins, Goldschmidt, or whatever other uninspiring FA 1B. It's what they do. Run back nearly the exact same disappointing roster from the previous year, tell us they believe in the talent of the core, and add 1 year, bargain bin guys. Rince and repeat.
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