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terrydactyls

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Everything posted by terrydactyls

  1. terrydactyls
    I love it when someone starts explaining analytic statistics by saying "the first thing to note is that [enter any analytic statistic here] doesn't mean anything statistically". That is certainly my feeling.
  2. terrydactyls
    He did say he was okay with strikeouts as long as they try to pulverize the ball. That certainly implies that this approach is acceptable with two strikes.
  3. terrydactyls
    The quote from Falvey defending the "swing for the fences" mentality disturbs me. Going deep in the count - good idea. But with two strikes, looking for a pitch down the middle to "pulverize" is assinine. The hitter should be protecting the plate and trying to put the ball in play. This past season, roughly half the Twins' outs were via strikeout. That needs to be addressed.
  4. terrydactyls
    Fascinating report but I'm afraid I have to question your math. The Twins staff pitched 1541.3 innings. Gray, Maeda, and Pagan accounted for 357.67 of those innings or 24.67%. If you add back Paddock at 120.0 innings (I think he may do better but I'll use your number), that's only 16.4% loss. That only leaves 237.67 innings to replace, or one starter and two relievers. That's not an insurmountable task. Maybe Gray signs a new deal? That would then just leave two relievers to add. No biggie. It shouldn't be too hard to replace Dallas Kuechle, Jose De Leon, Dylan Floro, and Jose Alcala.
  5. terrydactyls
    Goldschmidt for Julien and Larnach/Wallner? Let's look at just Goldy versus Eddie. Goldy: 593 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB, .268 AVG Eddie: 338 AB, 16 HR, 37 RBI. 3 SB, .263 AVG Now prorate Eddie's numbers to match Goldy's AB. Eddie: 593 AB, 28 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB, .263 AVG. The numbers are not too dissimilar. But Goldy is 36 and Eddie is 24. I would not make that trade straight up much less with another young bat thrown in.
  6. terrydactyls
    Lee at third is the 'why on earth' answer.
  7. terrydactyls
    I think the Twins no longer feel that Martin is an infielder. He may be playing left field next to Lewis in center.
  8. terrydactyls
    See my response above.
  9. terrydactyls
    I enjoyed Dusty Baker's response when asked if Urquidy was on an innings count or a pitch count. He replied that Urquidy was on a performance count. In my opinion, that is the better approach. Let Ryan start the 3rd inning and see how he does. If he does well, keep him in the game. If he doesn't, the bullpen should be prepared to step in. Why assume Ryan is going to fail? That is a negative approach and probably not a way for a team to have confidence in itself.
  10. terrydactyls
    I'm not sure I can agree with your first statement. I think Buxton might be the type of player who hits better when he is actively involved in the defensive side of the game.
  11. terrydactyls
    Your first and third questions can be answered by moving Lewis to CF and putting Lee at 3B. Second question: offer Gray to a 5-year, $100M contract that is front loaded and has team options after years 2, 3, and 4. If he rejects the offer, put the QO on him and get a draft pick. As for the off-season, I got nothing
  12. terrydactyls
    You forgot to mention the second definition. 2. (of an idea, plan, or method) likely to succeed or be effective in real circumstances; feasible. Thank you for proving that many MLB front offices are not practical.
  13. terrydactyls
    Exactly! A lot of people are saying that they would go for a 2-3 year contract with a team option after year 2. I would offer him a front loaded 5 year deal with team options after years 2 through 4. That would make the deal look better but wouldn't add any more risk than a 3 year contract with a team option after year 2.
  14. terrydactyls
    How about saving a lot of money by teaching Julien how to play 1B, and having Lewis, Martin, and Kiersey Jr. in the outfield? Lee, Correa, Polanco, and Julien are the infield. Use saved money for two things: a couple bullpen arms and one or two hitters that don't swing for the fences.
  15. terrydactyls
    The Mets are practical? Is baseball practical? Really? $5M to $8M for a under .500 winning % pitcher or for a backup middle infielder?
  16. terrydactyls
    Help me understand. If Camargo becomes a free agent after the World Series, would he even be a part of the rule 5 draft? And if so, why would a team select him if he is a free agent?
  17. terrydactyls
    This is baseball, not a class on theoretical finance.
  18. terrydactyls
    You are probably right but I hope it isn't the Twins.
  19. terrydactyls
    I recommended in another thread that the Twins offer Gray a 4-year, $90M deal at the following amounts: 2024 $30M 2025 $25M 2026 $20M (with a buyout) 2027 $15M (with a buyout)
  20. terrydactyls
    What are you talking about??? Buxton hit that ball at least 95 feet! 😇
  21. terrydactyls
    While the Twins should always be open to trade, I think now is time to NOT use this as a primary method for building a rotation. Returning in 2024 are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and Varland. There is a possibility of resigning Gray and/or Maeta. Tyler Mahli will be a free agent, but what's his market coming off Tommy John surgery? The Twins could make him an offer of two years for $5M total and probably get him to sign. He had the surgery in May and it wasn't a full-blown tommy john surgery so he may be back by June. (That is my non-medical opinion,) In the wings are SWR and Festa. That's a possible ten starters to choose from. I think they need to speed their energy, time, and money on finding someone that can put the ball in play.
  22. terrydactyls
    Why did Houston win? In my opinion, it was because they had Dusty Baker and the Twins had Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli's pre-game explanation of how he was going to pull Ryan early and use his bullpen was a stark contrast to Baker. When Baker was asked if he would have an inning count or a pitch count on Urquidy, he said that he was putting Urquidy on a "performance" count. As long as he's pitching well, he stays in the game. Instinct, intuition, or gut feel, whatever you want to call it, that puts Baker in the Hall of Fame. And Baldelli will be remembered as a guy who had a great career shortened by injury.
  23. terrydactyls
    I was thinking about this a couple of days ago, but a little more long term. Here is my idea. The Twins offer Gray a 4-year, $90M contract that pays him $30M in 2024, $25M in 2025, $20M in 2026, and $15M in 2027 with buyouts in both 2026 and 2027. By 2026 and 2027, those salaries will probably be the norm for a #4 or #5 starter. This would give the Twins a base group of starters of Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober, and Varland for the next few years. With the position players the Twins already have locked up for the next five years (more or less), they should be able to be a serious World Series contender during that time.
  24. terrydactyls
    "Injury prone" has been used in this thread several times. I disagree. Lewis' first ACL injury was when he slipped on an icy sidewalk (or step - I don't remember which) in Houston. I lived in Texas for more than 20 years and I've seen many curious Texans land on their ass because they wanted to experience what walking on ice is like. That doesn't make them "injury prone". That makes them a typical home-grown Texan. Many think cowboys boots are good for icy conditions because they keep snow off your feet. As a typical home-grown Minnesotan wearing his first pair of genuine adult cowboy boots in a Minnesota winter, I learned my lesson by landing on my ass also. His second ACL occurred when he landed awkwardly after jumping for a ball. The current hamstring problem? Which of us hasn't aggravate a hamstring before their 25th birthday? As has been pointed out by several people, a contract signed in 2023 is going to look like a bargain in 2030. Ten years for $175M seems like a good price. A good 3B in 2030 getting "only" $17.5M is a bargain.
  25. terrydactyls
    So what? The question isn't about what they were signed for originally but rather, what sort of extension can be worked out now.
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