DocBauer

Since Larnach was drafted, I've always seen he and Kirilloff as largely the same player, projection and profile wise. Interestingly, they've come up through the system usually only separated by a spot or two on virtually all prospect lists, with various comments from those who make said lists that also compare both guys similarly. I'm not surprised by Larnach's defense as I've never heard anything worse than "average", with OK speed once he gets his frame moving, and a strong arm. I think both Larnach and AK are a big part of the Twins for the next 5-8yrs with good health. What's Larnach 's ceiling? The way the game has been altering the past few years and with MLB messing with the balls, I hesitate to project actual numbers. For various reasons, I've had the hunch Kirilloff would end up with a slightly better BA and OB with Larnach having a little more power and a slightly higher XB total per season. I have to say I think legitimate .270 BA at minimum, and pushing 60 XB hits per year.

Great news throughout the system and some great performances, but I was mostly focused on the pitching side of things. Enlow contuning to ramp up and improve is awesome. He looked to be taking that next step early in 2021 before his injury. I'm not so worried about great final numbers this year for him, just throwing hard, getting a feel for his pitches again, and getting ready for a strong 2023. Alcala throwing hard and pain free would be huge for the Twins. I think they've really missed him. I'm not saying they don't need to add someone to keep the pen strong and the team in contention, but what a boost a healthy Alacala is for depth and to lower some other guys down a notch or so. Been impressed by Hajjar's SO and the sudden lowering of BB totals the past couple of games. And I'm probably being way to nick-picky, but 81 pitches to get through 4 and 1/3 seems pretty high. I know it's his first season, lower grade umpiring can miss calls, errors can lead to additional pitches thrown, etc, but I'd sure like to see a better economical use of his pitches. I see future ML stud back end RP as a worst case scenario for him. A little more command, and time of course, I could easily see an innings eating mid to top of the rotation SP with his velocity and strong build.

I think your list is largely accurate, with good comments on each. I could argue a few placements, but that's really just nit-picking and pointless. But I wanted to comment on a few guys here. 1] Never understood all the questions about Lewis' defense. Ive seen enough in ST games, milb highlights, and his brief ML time to see a kid who is a great athlete who has the hands, range, arm, and pure athleticism to be at least a quality ML SS. If you can make the great plays, it's a matter of time and experience to make the routine plays more consistently. He's probably never going to be a Correa type defensively, but so few are. I think he's going to be very good, if not excellent, with his glove with a little more time. He's still so damn young. 2] Martin has too much natural ability for the bat to not catch up. Crazy the expectations some have placed on him. College to nothing in 2020 and then straight to AA in his pro debut. The kid needs and deserves a little time, not unreal expectations of reaching the majors in 2022. I believe SOME power WILL COME. Again, just too much talent to not expect it to come. But he doesn't have to be a slugger to be very valuable. How about 30+ doubles with some triples and double digit HR's along with AVG and OB and speed that provides SB? Agreed he's probably not a real SS, but could play 2B and 3B and, IMO, should work there but be transitioned to the OF. I see him as an outstanding defensive LF who can also play CF. I get so frustrated when I read comments that he just won't be a quality offensive player without 20+ HR power for being an OF. When was it decided LF had to be a questionable defensive performer with power? I see Martin as being a clone of Alex Gordon, with more speed and a little less power, perhaps. 3] Miranda is still young and developing. He was a high pick the FO liked and was just waiting for the bat to catch up. That started in 2021. He's a rookie who has struggled initially...as if that's never happened before...but was starting to hit much better before his brief demotion. I think the bat is going to be just fine, though it's a question when the bulb begins to burn brightly. See "Lewis" in regard to settling down defensively as just being more consistent. The ability is there to at least be solid. 4] I just can't get too down on Balazovic with his slow start. He's behind everyone with his late start. Everything is there to be very good. I'm betting by August, if not sooner, we're all very excited for him in 2023 and will forget about his rough start. 5] Miller/Rodriguez: I get being torn between these two. Miller has surpassed my expectations and plays a premium position. Crazy how good he's looked so far in both areas. Man, if some power comes, LOOK OUT! I just cant believe how good and disciplined Rodriguez looks, while still providing power and production. I wouldn't want to "rob" him of his discipline, but I think he really starts cranking when he sacrifices a little bit of that discipline to hack and use his inate power. 6] Canterino is one of the guys that I think you have too low. Maybe I'm just blindly optimistic, but I think he's a legitimate SP at this point. His stuff is crazy good and should continue to develop and play up as he gets time. Much is made about his wind-up. But Canterino has stated he's used it for years and feels comfortable with it. To my knowledge, he never had a concerning injury of any sort in college. The Twins only limited him in 2019 due to IP. His injury in 2021 didn't require any surgery, and happened after he missed 2020 like so many others. He's being brought along slowly this year, which I appreciate and applaud, and looking about as good as ever. At this point, I just don't understand calls to move him to the pen. Why? Desperation to help the parent club? No way, IMO. His stuff is just too damn good for a knee-jerk reaction. And I'm going to add Festa here as well. Drafted, he's very tall and lanky, almost Ober-like, with vast potential to work with. He's EXACTLY the kind of projectile college arm the Twins love. He's already been promoted once, and there are already calls that he could be fast-tracked to the ML as a pen piece. Again, why? Why the rush and insistence to take an arm with SP potential and push him to the pen? 7] SWR and Henriquez are exactly where they should be. A pair of 21-22yo who should maybe be in A ball. Tons of talent and potential. And if they make a sudden jump, so be it. Move them up. But I'm very happy if they just sit at Wichita all year and just grow and get better. 8] Your higher on Sands right now than I am, and I was previously optimistic. I was really encouraged by his 2021 and his first couple of starts for St Paul. Suddenly the wheels came off. He's driving me crazy. I've watched him pitch every game for the Twins, including the Detroit game tonight, and he is wild and hangs stuff, and then I see a couple great pitches and a couple great IP and I wonder what is wrong? Kaat was the color man tonight and he felt he was opening up too early and falling off toward 1st base too much. Could it be that simple? I see "stuff" and potential with Sands, but there is something missing. It may be confidence. It may be his follow through. Might be both. I think there is an arm to work with there, I'm just not sure what to do with it. 9] Steer and Julien, to me, are sort of a "package" . Steer MIGHT just claim a starting spot in the next year or so. I still believe Miranda is the future 3B. But if for some reason he doesn't take hold, Steer just might. I believe he's going to be a "Marwin" type who plays 4 spots well and provides some good offense. I suspect Julien is going to be similar, play almost every day but not be a "starter". He will play 3 INF spots, LF, and occasionally DH and be a "sparkplug" type of player. This is where a really nice player like Gordon gets pushed out. 10] Povich and Hajjar, is very interesting to me. You have a pair of top Big 10 pitchers who are so easily dismissed because of where they played, despite their success. Povich was drafted WAY higher than projected. Hajjar has the build and potential to be a SP and innings eater. Early results tell me Povich will be challenging for a rotation spot in 2024 and Hajjar will be a potentially dominate BP piece at the same time. GUILTY PLEASURE: There is SOMETHING about Raya since he was drafted that told me he was Berrios part 2. MISSED: I really thought Strotman was going to make a difference at some point this year. I just can't understand how far he's fallen off.

I think going the college route more often is a combination of factors, many of them already mentioned here. A top HS arm, much like a SS, (or a QB in football), tends to often be the best athlete on the team. So trying to project how well their stuff plays and develops against a higher level of player on pro ball, much less any physical development, is just harder to accurately project. It doesn't mean there aren't really good 18yo arms that you don't pick, and that don't turn out, they're just much more of a wild card to accurately project. College pitchers are at least a bit more physically developed. Many of them can/will still continue to fill out and gain strength, but it's easier to see a more finished body type. Additionally, they've had a higher level of competition and coaching to harness at least one non fastball pitch. What the Twins have been doing, IMO, is recognize what pro coaching and career concentration can do for those college pitchers. Even better mechanics, greater repetition, a little more physical development, velocity can jump, control can be smoothed out, and unlike a HS pitcher, you're looking at adding a pitch and polishing the rest, vs a HS pitcher where you're probably trying to often develop 2 pitches, much less polish them. Time will tell how successful they are going to be, but the early returns have been good so far, and I think optimism is warranted. I think Povich is a prime example. Decent length, but a rather lanky build, good control, at least one solid secondary offering. Now concentrating on his profession, he fills out physically a little more for velocity, and better, more polished mechanics add a tick or two as well. And those better mechanics make his secondary stuff, at least one pitch, more consistent. Now, again, you're working most on the 3rd or 4th pitch instead of working with the more blank canvass that a HS kid presents.

I 100% agree with every single comment regarding a young prospect being moved off their position...SS in this particular argument...too soon or to pay too much attention to BOTH milb error numbers or early ML error numbers. In the past few years, through debates of various players...a ton of Lewis debates to be sure...I've posted error totals for a NUMBER of HIGH QUALITY ML players who were great, All Star, and even HOF worthy, who posted high error totals before becoming the players they turned out to be. Are there exceptions? You bet! If you spend the time to look as I have you will some tremdous defensive players at SS...as well as 3B...who had low error numbers at every stop along the way, including at the ML level. But you would be surprised at what you would see if you dug a little and looked. But I don't want to digress too much here. Martin is a great athlete. Just being real, the Jay's, and now the Twins, said "why not" when looking at his abilities and potential. Since being drafted, this is his SECOND professional season and he's only a couple months in! Fanfare and top 100 projection lists hype can do a lot to skew perspective. There is no good reason to take a very talented athlete, so early in his career, and just say he can't develop and won't get better. Doesn't mean he will develop in to a future GG winner, but doesn't mean he can't be good/solid at the spot. HOWEVER, despite all that I've stated, I do believe some guys, no matter how talented and athletic they are, just don't "fit" at certain positions. For example, as amazing a talent and athlete as Buxton is, there are reasons he plays CF and not SS. For those old enough to remember, changing positions, Gary Gaetti was a pretty good athlete with a rocket arm but hands of stone. Well, those hands of stone got really soft after a few more years at the ML level and he became an excellent defender at the hot corner. Again, I've never believed that you take a prospect off their position too early because they may grow tremendously over a few years. And at worst, they may turn out better elsewhere but will have the versatility to cover a spot. Think Polanco and his transition. The FO, scouts, and milb coaches may see Martin still growing and having the ability to be a viable, solid SS. If that's the case, and they really believe that, then keep working him there, at least part of the time. Never know what you might get! But please, let all parties be honest. If the Twins really question his overall ability and instincts to stick there, then start to make the move. Martin reminds me so much of Alex Gordon, former Husker All American and top draft choice 3B with the Royals who, for whatever reason, couldn't transition his defense and offense together to the ML level. But he became a GG winner in LF, an All Star as I recall, a versatile offensive force, and a pain in the ass for the Twins for years. I believe Martin is going to the LF of the future. I believe he will play great defense, cover CF, maybe be able to cover 3B/2B as well if needed, and be a great hitter with contact and high OB% with speed. I don't know how much, or to what degree, but pop/power will come. (Larnach moves to RF eventually, FWIW). I just feel this is what is going to happen. And I think at least a partial position adjustment should start taking place.

My answer, for now, is a resounding no. People a whole lot smarter than me will eventually make the determination for Canterino as to whether or not he remains in the rotation or transitions eventually to the pen. And maybe that will be his ideal role. I have little doubt he'd be great in the pen. But I absolutely don't take one of the most electric arms in my system, who seems to have legitimate SP capabilities and projection and transition him at this time because he MIGHT be able to help the 2nd half of the year. There was belief for some time Alcala was going to be a RP. There have been bumps, but he's flashed, and finished 2021 looking awesome. Part of that was growing experience, and part was a 3rd pitch that was only decent, but helped him against LH hitters. I want to say it was a form of change, but not certain IIRC. (Man I hope he comes back healthy and ready to go in June)! Duran needed a 3rd pitch to remain a SP but also had the possibility of being a fine BP piece, with even better stuff than Alcala and a higher ceiling. Had he been 100% healthy in 2021 I wonder if he'd even be in the pen this year? But tremendous stuff, need and opportunity has placed him as perhaps the best arm in the entire pen for 2022. Ironically, it's maybe the development of his 3rd pitch, his power curve, that may be leading to his sudden rise and acclimation to his role. I can see a real argument for a return to the rotation at some point, but I think he's at where he's going to stay. Every single pitching prospect is different than every other pitching prospect. They grow and develop individually for a number of reasons. And it's really easy to predict EVERY pitching prospect to the pen. In fact, it seems at times, that virtually every profile or breakdown you read states a bullpen option for everyone. I don't recall if Canterino had any injuries while in college at Rice. But unless I'm mistaken, and I don't believe I am, his is not a case of multiple injuries. He was drafted in 2019 and had pitched an awful lot of innings in 2019, and his career. He was not hurt when drafted, just treated with kid gloves. Initially, the Twins reported he would report for instructional work, but might not throw in any games. They changed course and decided to give him a limited 25 IP. He then missed 2020. He was off to a great start in 2021 before having soreness and ended up shut down for the year, unfortunately, like many others, the Twins erring on the side of caution. Still only 24yo and off to a very good start this year, it would be grossly misguided, IMO, to do anything other than bring him along and stretch him out and nurture him as a SP. He might even reach AAA some time in the 2nd half. MAYBE, come the end of the year, he comes up in the pen to help. But there is no way I transition such a great arm this early when he has real potential as a SP.

And I agree with this take. Just looking at his 2022 numbers, recalling the milb reports, he's had more BB and HR than he should have considering his IP and his experience. It's lead to a huge ERA. But the hits and K per are good as well as his .217 BA against and 1.29 WHiP. Considering what he's done with the Twins the past couple of seasons, I'm optimistic he's going to be solid. I was pleased he came back and think he didn't make the roster out of ST had a lot to do with the 40 man and some younger arms they just wanted to keep. I do have to admit though, I remain surprised by others getting their shot, or second shots, vs Hamilton getting his first. It's not as though the guys they've brought up haven't shown OK with St Paul and didn't deserve a chance, but why not Hamilton? I can only surmise that they like him, think he has a future, but are afraid to play the 40 man/DFA game with him for fear he'd be claimed and so they are "nurturing" him along after all he's been through so that when he's eventually added to the 40 man, he might be ready to stay on it. I am hopeful, disappointed and confused by Moran. He just turned 25yo in April, missed 2020 like so many, so he isn't old. His FB and slider are OK, though nothing special. It's his change that is outstanding and allows his other pitches to play up. His AAA numbers this season are pretty mediocre, but the potential is there to be very good. And his 3 games earlier with the Twins this year were good. I'm really hoping this is the opportunity where he settles in and becomes a long standing member of the pen.

I almost selected "something else" simply because there were more than a couple good choices listed, and some not listed, such as Duran and Celestino having breakthroughs. So it was kind of hard to pick just one. Always the optimist, I actually thought the Twins would put 2021 behind them and have a winning season this year, and challenge for the playoffs. I selected Buston's BA at this point. Even if he was out or more banged up than he's been, etc, I never saw a slump that would take him that low. Granted, he's probably about ready to go on a tear and destroy the opposition and get that BA right back up again...hopefully starting today...but I'm still surprised by that number and his recent dip.

Arraez is absolutely one of my favorite Twins players and so happy none of the projected trade ideas with him the past offseason happened. I don't think it's hubris at all to say he's the best pure "hitter" that I've seen in 20yrs since Boggs and Gwynn were playing. History shows us the value of the HR in regard to scoring. Power, specifically HR power, WINS. But BANKING on HR rather exclusively doesn't always work due to feast or famine, plus, too many solo HR aren't always a good thing. But team Power and HR remain an important part of the game. However, in good baseball and good teams that WIN, your offense still need OB% and guys who can just HIT once in a while instead of only looking dead set for the HR. The hood news is we've actually seen the Twins just "hit" better in 2022, and Kepler is a prime example. I believe Lewis, when back up, will hit. Larnach, IMO, will hit. So will AK if and when he gets healthy. Just a short list/example. And then you have Arraez. One of the best pure hit and OB guys in baseball. And he's clutch! His power may still develop to some degree, but he never has to be a thumper to have value. I think he will hit a few more doubles and a few more HR as he matures, but that will only make him even more valuable as it happens. (His hard work to shed some bad weight and add good weight this past offseason will keep his knees and body more healthy, as well as potentially lead to a little more pop/power). I believe his defensive shortcomings have been greatly exaggerated. He pretty much learned 3B and LF at 22yo AFTER reaching the ML. Same with his learning 1B on the fly this year. And while I've seen mistakes and errors, again, his general defense is solid at both 2B and 3B, and I've been very pleased how well he's picked up and adapted to 1B. And if you want to break him down or apart for his defense, go ahead. I know what my eye test has seen 3+ years and the good outweighs any bad, IMO. You can make fun, if you want, but the term "gamer" used to be a compliment and not a ufemism to be made fun of because a manager used it too often. Arraez is a tremendous hitter, a young and important and versatile piece for the Twins now, and over the next few seasons as a dangerous presence in the lineup. And yep, the guy is a "gamer"!

Not a good year for pitching, particularly this high, unless you want to take a huge risk on a young kid coming off injury. And I always believe your 1st pick, in particular, in the MLB draft, is best player available regardless. And from what I've been reading...mostly here but other places...Collier is a fast riser who is legitimate: glove and bat and potential but still very young and a world of potential. I think he'd be a great selection. And maybe I'm just stubborn, but I see Susac a couple spots later and I just can't get over the idea of picking him and getting a high catching prospect in the system. Now, if the Twins see a major difference in potential/projection between the two, you obviiously go with Collier.

Well, he obviously could be trade capital for a move, especially if he adapts well and quickly to AAA. But I prefer to look at him in regard to the Twins. While Miranda is penciled in at 3B once his bat gets going...Lewis the future SS...doesn't mean Steer should be dismissed as a challenger. May the best player win. But he could also prove valuable as a "regular" while not being a proverbial "starter". Examining his career so far, he's not going to be the hitter/OB machine that Arraez is, but possibly a better hitter than Gordon, while not matching his speed or ability to play OF. He's got more power than either. He could be a great role player at 2B/SS/3B with quality bat and power. Could he also play a little 1B alla Arraez? IMO, good floor as a multipositional, solid glove and decent bat with solid power. His ceiling is quality starter who hits about .270ish with 30 Dbl and 20 HR power consistently. He hasn't come out of nowhere. He was a good college player and a 3rd round pick who's hit since day one.

If I can only choose yes or no, I'd say yes. But right now, today, I'd say most likely, but I want to see more of the season play out...including how they handle this draft and the milb talent...and then make my final decision at the end of the year. As stated above, there will ALWAYS be trades and FA signings and 1st round picks that don't turn out for ALL teams. You don't judge a FO on those, unless there are a bunch. And there haven't been. This FO was tasked, literally, with re-building the entire organization from drafting and changes in development to coaching and approach from rookie ball all the way up to the parent club. They have done that. They've done it so well they've lost coaches and various personnel and a few players to other teams. When you're being poached, it means you're doing well and the other teams are noticing. And despite a complete re-build, the parent club has been winning and making the playoffs. And that's from day 1, with the exception of 2021. I have expressed my own opinions for things I question or don't like, which is my/our right as fans. But I have been a fan and believer of just about everything they've done thus far. Again, with some contrary thoughts/opinions. But the results have been good, and the fruits of their labors, to build a sustainable, competitive organization is/has been taking shape, with a lot of young talent arriving and continuing to work themselves up through the system. My only reason for saying to wait until the end of the season is I want to see how this team does the rest of the way, how their previous decisions play out, and what they do to finish up the season with potential moves. Me personally, I would be disappointed if they made ZERO moves to augment a competitive team that might show a need. But on the other hand, with the way the entire organization appears to be moving forward toward good seasons to come, I'd be disappointed if they went "too far in" with moves for 2022 and potentially sacrificed tomorrow. So I'm a yes, but I'd just wait until 2022 is done to make the final decision. One thing I've noticed from years of watching sports at the professional and amateur level, when something is going good and looks like it can continue to grow, you stick with it. Constant change for perfection sake is an illusion. You put good people in place, and when you have them, you keep them.

Are the Twins, right now, one of the best 2 or 3 teams in all of MLB? No. Are they in the top 4-6 with room to continue to improve? Yep. You never apologize for winning, even if it's against lesser teams. It means you're doing what you're supposed to be doing. The Astro series was disappointing as hell, but doesn't define the Twins now, or in the future. I like what I've seen and feel there is room for improvement for what's on hand. The Lewis situation is so debatable, and we all have. To do so is pointless at this point. If he had begun this season hitting in the .270's with decent production at AAA and done something similar with the Twins, the yells would have been less. But he is a Golden Child. And I would have pursued the "Gordon/Arraez" method of ML learning and kept him. He's special. But after 1 great month at AAA and 11 great games at the ML level, after 2yrs of non game play, the FO made their decision. He's not exactly done. He'll be back, and probably to stay, and probably soon. Despite some great moves, the Paddack one, and his loss, hurts for 2022. Sorry, but you don't win them all. I'm not convinced that Pagan won't actually get better and be an important part of 2022. There is a real chance Paddack is part of the 2nd half of 2023 and 2024. And who knows, maybe an extension will be in order. Time will tell. But despite my ambalivent nature to the trade, I understand the scope of the move and it's potential. There is so much good going on, I hesitate to focus on the bad. A healthy Winder could be major for the 2nd half. Archer FINALLY gaining strength/consistency could be huge. And even if Pagan's recent adjustment on his new splitter makes him important and ready to rock, he and Duran could still use ONE MORE ARM if this team remains in contention come July. Unless you can pull of a trade, possibly short term, maybe long term and more expensive, I'm still not sure you get better than Ryan, Gray and Ober for your 1st 3. And I KNOW I'll get heat for this, but if Gray is Gray, and if Ryan and Ober JUST do what they've done in 2021 and 2022 thus far, and even if they don't improve, you've still got a nice 3 to front the rotation. And then an improving Winder and Archer and hopefully a solid Bundy, who can you trade for that will make a major difference? I mean, without giving up too much. If Archer gains endurance and confidence again in his stuff, he could supplant Ober as the #3. I've read the idea of a cheap deal for someone like Evoldi as an option, despite a rough start to his 2022. That MIGHT be a massive move if he gets right and doesn't cost too much. But I have to say again, if Archer "gets right" the next 30 days, and we can add at least ONE good BP arm in July, I'm not so sure the pitching isn't going to be solid for the last half.

So much to like this season so far, and a lot of comments to like as well. But I also have a few points that I like as well. 1] So VERY pleased by the team defense! No doubt Correa is part of that. But Polanco looks great, Urshela, despite his bat starting slow, has done a great job defensively, Larnach has been OK and showed the arm I've heard about, etc, etc. The defense has been great, and the bench has contributed so much. (And Arraez has been great at 1B). That doesn't just help the pitching staff. It helps the offense as well, they get off the field, they're pumped up, and they face less pressure when the other team scores less. 2] With offense down all across MLB, the Twins are producing, despite their own numbers being suppressed. And I echo surprise and optimism for Kepler and others suddenly spraying the ball around and LH bats going to LF so much more. Is Popkins an early coaching MVP? This team could really use Larnach back the way he was before his injury. Despite Arraez's great play at 1B, we could still use Kirolloff producing like he's capable of. Hopefully that happens still in 2022. Jeffers and Urshela heat up a little more, Miranda gets himself right...and not even talking right now about Lewis' potential contributions in the future...how much better could the offense still be? 3] Ryan and Ober are continuing what we saw of them last year. Gray is great as long as he remains healthy. Winder has looked great, despite a couple of hiccups, and should/could be valuable the 2nd half plus as part of the rotation. (He's ready. But he's a rookie so you have to expect a couple hiccups). I am not disappointed by Bundy. He can be solid. But I want to see more. Archer is healthy and throwing pretty hard and throwing some nasty stuff at times. But he's obviously not all the way back yet. He's suffering from sudden losses of control. He could be huge by July if his control/confidence/endurance kicks in and he's ready for 5+ by then. Losing Padeack hurts, and not going to re-visit the trade at this point, but the rotation has been SOLID. And it appears there is more on the way. 4] The pen has been surprisingly good, with a few bad days, but those days will happen. Duran looks like a stud, and despite walking a tightrope at times, Pagan has gotten the job done. Boy, he gets back closer to his normal BB%, and his new splitter keeps working, we could have a solid, reliable late inning arm. Glad to see Duffey and Thielbar get it together. Smith has been outstanding. I've been excited by Jax's transition and remain hopeful. It seems almost everyone who's gotten a shot has contributed so far. 5] It really feels like this team LIKES who they all are. They seem to be having fun and have believe in themselves. Much like 2019-2020, they seem to have confidence in themselves. I'm excited for this team. I love the way they are playing 1/4 of the way done. I'm all the more excited because there is still room for improvement yet. There will be some bad days and bad series to be sure. It's baseball and a hell of a long season. But this is a good team with talent, depth, opportunity to improve, and talent on the way. I'm not sure I'm yet ready to predict a record at this point, but I don't think 90 wins is crazy. I DO think Archer and Winder need to step up or we may need to look at a trade option. I DO think we are really missing the potential of Alcala in the pen and may have to look at a quality addition before all is said and done. But I do really like most of this team and it's potential. I love the mix of youth and experience. This is what the FO wanted/hoped for in 2021. It's starting to happen a year late. This team is "competitive" with potential for this year and beyond. From the lost 2020 year, and so many injuries at both the ML and milb level, it's just happening a year later than hoped/expected.

Despite the news about Paddack, I remain conflicted about the trade. What I've disagreed with since day one is the idea that Rogers was GONE after this year. Would he really be so expensive that he wouldn't have signed for maybe a 2yr deal around $7-8M per? We've seen such weird changes in FA and financial changes the past few years I just don't know. Clearly, the FO "speculated" about his finances vs a return they could get in a return. On the surface, any time you can trade a RP for "potentially" 1yr and get a 26yo SP with 3yrs of control, and quality upside, along with at least a "decent" BP arm you think you can work with, and then toss in a talented young flier arm, it seems you would "win" such a trade. And my problem has NEVER been about Paddack, and his potential...which looked very good until this latest injury...or Pagan...who's been scary and getting the job done and just might be good if he harnesses his stuff and his new pitch more consistently...or the young prospect who MIGHT turn out to be good. My problem has always been that I didn't think the trade needed to be made to begin with. And I'm so very sorry to state this for the 4th or 5th time, because even I am getting tired of doing so, but if our FO had paused for a moment in between Buxton talks and just looked at opportunity available through FA, I still believe they could have brought in a quality mid rotation SP early, and THEN sat back and let things play out, as is their MO. Doing so wouldn't have blown up payroll to some extreme, and allowed them to keep Rogers for the BP, and still add Smith, with the idea Rogers MIGHT re-sign for something that wasn't outlandish. I know said FA wouldn't be 26yo with upside, but it would have, potentially, solidified the staff and kept Rogers for at least this year. And we've got a lot coming up to add to both parts of the staff. I never hated the deal, because I understood it. Doesn't mean I liked it or wouldn't have done things differently. I would have. And I can't help myself, but I always want to look at any positive that happens in life, or my Twins lifeline, LOL. 1] There is a real chance that Pagan just gets his control figured out real soon. I mean, his career BB is not what he's been showing so far. And with that, if his new splitter starts to find consistency, he could actually be pretty good. I know, I know, hope and a prayer, right? But he's not a bad arm. He gets a little more control and confidence, Duran keeps maturing, Jax keeps maturing, HOPEFULLY Alcala comes back by July, I suddenly feel pretty good. 2] Considering the advances in TJ, there is a real chance Paddack is pitching for the Twins come June 1st, at worst, July 1st 2023. And yes, I know that means crap for 2022 and the start of 2023. But by mid season next year we might just "add" a SP who might make a difference. And we'd still have a fairly young and talented arm for half of 2023 AND 2024 with the idea of potentially extending him. I'm NOT painting lipstick on a pig. I've been pretty clear I would have done things differently before hand, but understand taking "chances" once in a while. The Twins did that. And they got burned for this year. Doesn't mean their decison won't pay dividends down the road. I 100% love and agree about building from within, and we are just starting to see the results. And more is coming. So despite my 50/50 split on the Paddack trade, I CAN see the method of the madness to add and come out better in the long run. NOTE: Flers? Forget Paddack for a moment and think about Archer. He's been inconsistent, but flashes his old self. He needs to build up IP, but also has a mental block, from what I've seen, to just trust himself again. I actually l love the way the Twins have been 'babysitting" him a bit to get healthy and right. He could be a major player before the season is done. At worst, he will suddenly do a Smolt/Aguilera and go to the pen and re-invent himself and be a major BP piece.

Now I didn't look at splits, good for you to take the time and look that up. Good information. He certainly wouldn't be the only hitter to benefit from playing in Yankees stadium. And I may be wrong, but I was thinking Yankee stadium playing better for LH hitters? He has had a slow downgrade from 2019 to 2020 to 2021. But as I stated, even his 2021 wasn't far below league average. I don't know how "good" he can hit, but I agree with you that he's better than this year has shown thus far, hence at least SOME optimism he's been better lately. Maybe heating up? I also agree that ultimately, he may indeed be best as a utility player. And how long he remains a Twin is hard to predict, especially if the bat comes around. Not to mention if and when Lewis is back up and filling at 3B. And what if Miranda gets things figured out in the near future? And down the road, maybe as early as 2023, what about Steer and Julien? But I'm getting ahead of myself. I think Urshela is a good glove, potentially versatile player with a better bat than he's shown that can is very useful, at least for 2022. Also agree on Sanchez. I admit I just didn't know what to expect, but had real trepidation. But he's sure looked at least average to me defensively so far. He's even called a few low scoring games that give me hope. I guess the one thing I didn't say, which someone else pointed out, if the new life in his bat is really coming alive, will he be pricing himself out of returning to the Twins in 2023? Of course, the FO may wish to look in a different direction come 2023 anyway. But I never expected to actually consider a "want" or at least be OK with Sanchez back next year. Good stuff.

Ted recently had an OP on Friday the 13th...definitely some irony there...that was less than complimentary regarding what we've seen from Urshela and Sanchez to this point, and all very fair. But a week later, after some wins, I felt like taking a moment to look at a few things regarding recent production of this pair, especially after various other threads regarding the lineup/roster in general, and any future impact of Royce Lewis in particular. Now, I'm NOT trying to create another Lewis debate thread by any means, and I know his future presence will come in to play here, but my general focus is on these two lost souls who have escaped the hell of being Yankees for the joy of joining our favorite team. (Just couldn't help being a little sparky there for fun). I don't think it's a stretch at all to say Urshela's defense at 3B has been outstanding! And it's been a joy to watch. His offense thus far, except maybe the first couple of games, has frankly been offensive. He bloomed in NY in 2019 and 2020 and posted really solid numbers across the board. Even in a somewhat disappointing 2021, possibly affected by a covid battle, his overall production wasn't terrible, though slightly below league average. (Please go back and read Ted's detailed information). I have no doubt the Twins were hoping for a mean of all three seasons. And if that were to happen, coupled with his defense, we have a pretty nice ballplayer here! But that just hasn't happened as of yet. But I think there may be evidence that Urshela is at least reaching the corner, even if he hasn't rounded it yet. LAST 15 GAMES: .151 AVG/ .203 OB/ .302 SLG LAST 7 GAMES: .222 AVG/ .276 OB/ .444 SLG A pair of HR and 6 RBI during the 15 game stretch. Should we be excited? HELL NO! But when you go from virtual zero, even worse than your career numbers before 2019, to actual improvement in the last week or so, don't you have to believe/speculate some additional improvement to the mean? The point is he's showing signs of life as a hitter lately. He's outstanding at 3B defensively. While I never watched him closely playing SS with the Yanks, they at least thought he was a solid filler there. He's seldom played 1B or 2B in his career. But if you can be that good at 3B and at least solid at SS, you should be able to play 1B and some 2B, though not everyone can perfect the pivot. He hits his amalgam of the past 3yrs, the rest of the way, he's a valuable part of the club, even if you move him around. He hits a little less, he can still be valuable as a utility player and decent RH bat with some power and a good/great glove who may be gone 2023/2024 but still has value NOW. NOT blowing smoke. He's not part of the future. But ANY sign of life from his bat is a good thing considering his recent past and his defense. And then there is Gary Sanchez. I have nothing against the man other than being a Yankee in his previous life. His arm is very strong! He has tremendous power. And he's been a shadow of his previous prospect and first few years at the ML level. I wasn't crazy about him as our 2nd catcher and a DH option. But I could live with him for a season if he just improved a little bit in both phases with a new start. Hopeful and optimistic, I was resigned for 1yr. Jeffers is still our best catcher and potential he hasn't reached yet, IMO. I believe he's going to be a stalwart. But I have been genuinely impressed by Sanchez behind the plate. Not great, but he has not been the butcher I thought he would be. (Make up your own minds, but don't let pre-conceived notions cloud yourself like I did initially). He's been solid. The bat is, and has been, a HUGE question mark, not only in NY, but the start of his Twins career. No question he got off to a rough start, and had at least 2-3 HR denied by bad weather and possibly a dead ball that might have made a difference in a few games. But let's look at his recent numbers as well. LAST 15 GAMES: .255 AVG/ .349 OB/ .545 SLG LAST 7 GAMES: .308 AVG/ .419 OB/ .808 SLG Three HR and 9 RBI over the last 15G to give him 4HR and 17 RBI. He's currently 3rd on the team in RBI. Hot streaks and cold streaks happen. And I predict nothing long term for either Urshela or Sanchez. But as the Twins are winning and the weather is warming up as well, isn't at least possible Urshela is approaching his previous production? Isn't it possible the whole "change of scenery" ...and changes in coaching defense...isn't giving Sanchez a new life on his career? We're absolutely talking SSS. But a bad few weeks to begin the season is also SSS, right? Urshela will be pushed out, eventually, by Lewis, a better Miranda, Steer, Julian, and Arraez, and Gordon, almost assuredly. But if he keeps playing great defense and turns that corner offensively, he just might stick around another year. Sanchez is a different story. He's primed to hit FA next year. And if he continues his recent upward swing offensively with better defense, he might just get a decent deal. A TON of "what if" and "potential" for both of these guys. And both could easily be gone next year. But these aren't awful players by any stretch. In fact, they could pay dividends the rest of the season. Do you see Urshela and Sanchez being a part of the rest of the season with recent upticks and potential? Or do you see something very different going forward?

Awesome Brock! TD just keeps getting better and better!

So the Twins are obviously a better team than the A's. We're supposed to win. Guess what? We did! I know A's pitchers produced a ton of walks. But can we give at least a little bit of credit for the Twins batters to not bite and take those walks? How about 14 runs scored and not a HR struck? That means, as bad as the A's might be, the Twins still took professional AB and made things happen. Gray may have faced a low leverage lineup, overall, but he got his groove going and did a good job and should build on this going forward, healthy again. There is nothing about this game not to like. There has been conversation about how weak the next few weeks are on our schedule. Maybe so. These things are fluid based on injury and hot streaks. But it's also a perfect time to pad a lead, but more than that, it's a perfect time for a few bats to "get right" and show what you are capable of. And it's the perfect time for Bundy to "get well" again as well as Archer to start believing in his stuff and start pounding the zone again and stretch himself out to at least 5 IP per. NEVER apologize for winning. And never apologize for opportunity to get better.

I have been vasillating on the 2022 "fate" of Lewis since his promotion after his hot start with the Saints. I've moved from "great, but send him back to continue his development" to "the kid is just so ready that you have to keep him". And while I'm a bit confused and flummoxed by his demotion, I believe I can at least understand the FO perspective on this one. Their thinking, IMO, is that he's absolutely part of the future of this franchise. And after a pair of weird/lost seasons, despite a tremendous start to 2022, they will be damned if they do ANYTHING that could compromise his development and his future. He has already surpassed almost anyone's expectation for 2022 and his readiness. The FO isn't stupid, and they are as giddy as a Leprechaun in a gold mint right now with how he looks. (Weird analogy that made sense in my crazy brain, lol). But again, not going to do anything to disrupt "the plan" to ensure his future. So now that they know he's ready, they WANT him to with the Twins. BUT, there is "the plan" in place. Not too much too soon for the Golden Goose prospect. And so we're going to send him down for a few weeks and let him play SS as well as other positions with less pressure, get acclimated, and then bring him back up soon. Are they wrong? Not exactly. Are they being overly cautious? ABSOLUTELY! Dismissing a bit of hyperbole on my part, I think what I've stated is pretty accurate. It's really easy to point out Arraez and Gordon have learned new positions on the fly, which I did in a previous post today. Weirdly, Arraez has done so on winning teams and Gordon did so in a lost season. Is there a correlation? I'm not sure. But I will say Urshela is a tremendous defensive 3B who hasn't yet matched his production in NY. But he's also got a limited track record that makes you think there's more coming. Hopefully, he's being worked out at 1B, as rumors suggest. We know he can play a passable SS here and there. Gordon has an interesting role on the team, and seems to be still developing. So the Twins might be a little unsure exactly where they want Lewis to concentrate on playing. A couple more weeks might give better clarity at the ML level how Urshela's bat does, as well as his ability to play 1B. Back to Lewis, he played 3B until his senior year of HS. He played it a few games in the AFL, if I'm not mistaken. It's not foreign to him and he has the ability to handle the spot. He showed natural instincts at CF in the AFL. With Celestino and Gordon and even Kepler available for CF, Lewis doesn't HAVE to play CF in 2022, though he obviously could if needed. But "could" is different than how well. (Not that I think he couldn't do at least OK). And while I am no expert, it is my understanding that playing LF/RF is different than CF, not only due to the ballpark you are playing in, but reading the ball off of the bat is different. Do I have any doubts Lewis can adapt and learn? Absolutely not! Do I think he could adapt and learn on the fly the way Arraez and Gordon have? Without a doubt. Do I think they made a mistake by being too cautious? A resounding yes! But I believe, right or wrong, this is the perspective the FO is taking right now. But I'd be really surprised if Lewis isn't back up in just a few weeks, and up to stay for good.

Absolutely best wishes to him and his recovery, that is most important, of course. From a purely baseball standpoint, I have to think about the recent advances in TJ surgery and I think about Hill coming back so soon. There is a chance Maeda pitches by the end of this year. Enlow had surgery early last year, I want to say April, and mid May he's now made a pair of milb starts. I think getting the surgery now is smart. There is a real chance he's ready by June in 2023, July at the latest. He's only 26yo and can still have a nice career ahead of him. WITHOUT re-examing the trade yet again...not my intention...again from a purely baseball perspective, the Twins will still have control for 1 and 1/2 years. And nothing says an extension couldn't happen if he comes back strong. But best of luck for a full recovery!

As I've stated before, I'm torn on the entire subject. I am disappointed Lewis was sent down, and I'm willing to bet this was discussed with Royce ahead of time so everyone was on the same page. And I'm sure this was discussed and understood before last night's game. If you look at this with a purely logical eye, it does make sense. He is their most prized prospect. He hasn't played in a real game for 2yrs due to covid and then injury. A hot start of 1 1/2 months guarantees nothing, even though he looks very good. They want him to be the best player he can be, both offensively and defensively. The simple fact that they are not planning on playing him exclusively at SS, but rather, moving him around to take advantage of his skills in order to keep him in the lineup, is very forward thinking, and actually pretty aggressive. They believe it's in everyone's best interest to get a couple/few weeks of doing this in a less pressure packed situation at AAA rather than at the ML level. MIranda stays up for now to help play 1B and then goes down when Larnach comes back. By then, they hopefully have figured out another option to back up there. Additionally, it may be the same time frame All perfectly reasonable and logical and practical. And I can't argue with this vehemently, even if I hate seeing him go down, even temporarily. HOWEVER....not only is he performing well, so far at least, with the bat, but I don't see how you can transition Arraez to 1B and LF both on the fly, and Gordon to CF/OF on the fly, and then tell me Lewis can't do the same thing. So while I think they have the right approach to take advantage of all his talent and work him all around the field to maximize opportunity and his potential, I just don't understand why he needed to go down at this time vs the struggling Miranda. A good long view...but short-sighted in implimentation.

Honestly I remain torn on this matter. On one hand, he's super talented, has more than held his own defensively despite a couple of not so great plays, and has really looked as good as I always expected him to. And he's hitting and producing, granted SSS. And it's not as if he's never played other positions or lacks the ability to do so. And couldn't he learn from Correa, both watching and talking? And unless he hits a wall offensively, he can learn so much being at the ML level to get ready for 2023 and beyond. As much as I love watching Correa play, basic logic tells me he's going to look for that 8-10yr deal after this season. But on the other hand, what's truly best for Lewis and the Twins and his future? Despite all his talent and years of playing SS, I have no doubt he's still learning and growing and will continue to get better and better. But despite looking good right now with the glove and the bat, he's still shaking some rust off after 2yrs of zero actual, real game action. Is he better served playing every day at AAA FOR NOW at SS to better refine his defense for 2023 and beyond? I think it's a valid question. We can say a SS only has 4-5 balls hit his way in a game so why can't he learn at the ML level? But 4-5 chances 5 days a week is different than 2 when we're talking about opportunity to work on footwork and positioning and all the subtleties of handing SS on a permanent basis. I think both scenarios are valid arguements, and thus I'm torn about keeping such a talented and, so far, productive player on the ML roster vs what's ultimately best for his future. For now, I see him staying and playing him at SS/3B/OF and use him in a super utility role. Miranda goes down for a re-set, taking knowledge and experience from this first call up with him. You play Arraez at 1B and figure out your best alternate option there. When Larnach is back, unless someone else gets hurt, we may have to re-examine Lewis' spot, at least for the short term.

Hey there! Sorry, doesn't look like I'm going to make this week. I wasn't paying attention to the schedule and didn't realize the Saints were in town this week. Stink too as my dad and I promised we'd see them when they came to town, even if hard the roster is up with the Twins at the moment, lol. Got some plans in the works already, but if something changes I will shoot you a message.?

The guy scares the hell out of me at times, but so far he's gotten the job done. A new pitch, colder weather, just a couple bad days, could have all lead to his suddenly high BB%. As noted, his career BB numbers have been decent previously. Love the 3rd pitch and hope it settles in nicely. He's not a second coming of Joe Nathan, but he's looking much better as of late, so I think his role is safe for now, sharing the closer role. But man do I wish we had a healthy Alcala to work in this pen.