DocBauer

I watched Dobnak's new slider a few days ago and was as blown away by it as the batters he faced. While I can't remember which OP they were posted in, I watched a couple hilights re-posted and was again just so impressed by what I saw. What we have seen thus far in his short career...77 IP...is a guy who doesn't allow many free passes, doesn't allow big 3HR mistakes, battles, and induces a lot of ground balls. These are all positives that would seem to give him a legitimate floor option as a valuable long man who can piggyback and spot start with a ceiling as a solid 5th SP who might develop/grow enough to be a decent #4 with a little more experience. Now, if he can maintain any sort of consistency with that new slider...and if you haven't seen it you need to...it could be very easy to see him as a legitimate #4 rotation piece with the potential to be a #3. Crazy? Not if look at what he's accomplished so far and how devastating the early returns of his new slider have been. The first few years of his contact pretty much guarantee what he could receive through arbitration as a "good" pitcher. The option years should be a great value for the Twins if he's a quality #4 and nothing better. Look, I am super pumped about the arms in the system. Over the next 2yrs, Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, Enlow, Sands, Winder and maybe Chalmers are going to reach the ML level to one degree or another. (Chalmers may still end up in the pen). And I am re-engaged in my optimism regarding Thorpe. I fully believe he is going to be valuable this season in a variety or roles and could be a legitimate contender for the 2022 rotation as well. I am not predicting greatness for Dobnak, but I am pretty optimistic about a young SP with a new pitch that looks that damn good so far.

At some point this season he's going to be in the rotation and he's going to probably stay there for good, 2022 certainly. Will he be good enough to be a #2? #3? We'll see. But this is great for both sides. And I love the incentives if and when he really takes off.

So let me get this straight. We signed a very nice #4 SP with a very nice career despite being shelled a bit in the bandbox that is Yankees stadium. (Better before N.Y. and a surprisingly good 2020). But a pretty damn good SP before that. Then, we took a cheap flier on a #5 option for depth that can be very good when healthy. But we are worried about a talented prospect that a lot of us really like and are excited about who has been good and looks borderline amazing with his new pitch? We all know this works itself out. Happ and Shoemaker look great! One or both get injured. That is where Dobnak, and maybe Thorpe Check in ahead of the prospects on the rise and look like part of the future. The depth is there and enviable. Just doesn't mean Dobber has to be in the rotation from day one.

If anyone thinks Cave is a poor choice for a 4th OF, and a CF option along with Kepler, then you just haven't watched enough baseball to realize roster limitations. And you are somehow naive enough to believe every team should have a high quality stud backup just waiting in the wings. I'd like to have Broxton around. But athletic talent and a poor ML career except for his first couple of years makes him some MUST? Huh? He might excell as a fill-in or suddenly re-invent himself, and it would be awesome if he did, but he's a milb FA because this was his best option but somehow he's so much better than Cave? Again, huh? Garlik has a legitimate arguement. But how in hell do you keep him over the younger prospect Rooker? The FO has brought in a bunch of bullpen arms that most paid little attention to. Some haven't looked so good. Some have looked pretty awesome. That's what they are SUPPOSED to do. If the biggest problem with our pen is figuring out how to add a guy to the 40 man roster to be brought up, then the FO has done their job well. 40 man to about 50, the depth on this team is what you hope for. When you really have no idea how to keep everyone, much play them, how is this a bad thing? Depth is NOT an issue! The only question is the top 26-30+ being healthy enough to perform to ability. The depth looks outstanding to me.

Understand the only team I'm an "expert" on is the Twins. But I'd like to think I watch enough, read enough, and hear enough to be able to discuss the Dirty Sox with intelligence and perspective. And it's also PAINFUL to give any credit to said Dirty Sox for anything because next to the Yankess...well...they're the Dirty Sox! Lol. But I like their 1st 3 and I like their pen. They have some young, vibrant arms with potential as well. BUT, I think we are giving them a bit of a "fear factor" in regard to young arms. You just can't be concerned about their young arms and not remember to look at the young arm talent the Twins have. It works both ways. Where I disagree with the OP is Berrios vs Pineda. I mean I really, really like the healthy and re-invented Pineda and everything he has done on the mound after a couple mediocre early starts coming off his surgery. And I am very optimistic and excited about a full 2021 from him. But in no way, shape or form would I EVER rate him above Berrios! Matt, are you a victim of "Of course, Minnesota" in regard to Berrios because he hasn't yet turned in to what has been hoped for? You speak about him being 26yo and having potential still and seem to ignore a pair of All Star selections...for what those are worth...and career numbers and all he has flashed thus far, and the vast potential he still has, and like Pineda better? Dude, sorry we can't have a drink and debate in person, but I'm going to say you are wrong and will be proven wrong. I like Happ for 2021, though I'm SLIGHTLY concerned about his ramp up to begin the season. Shoemaker is just such a smart signing! We might get 25 GS, and we may get 14. But every season someone with real talent and production gets healthy again and turns out to be a steal. Dobber offers us a SP that MIGHT be better than either Happ or Shoemaker. And his new slider looks LEGIT! But veteran arms and this depth shouldn't be ignored. Nor should we ignore a couple of quality veteran SP getting a little time and leeway. If the "new" Thorpe is the old Thorpe...and I believe he is...he will be pushing for the next man up HARD. I think Dobnak, barring wonderful health, will be part of the rotation before the season is done, and cementing himself for 2022. That's ONE. Does Thorpe establish himself as a future SP or a bullpen fixture? Or a BP option who slides back in to the rotation? TBD. But I would not be shocked if a year from now we are talking about both being part of the rotation. It would seem the DS have the better pen on the surface due to pure velocity, etc. But I do like our rotation and rotation depth more. I 100% believe Hendricks was signed as the classic closer over Colome due to La Russa. Considering what Colome did for Chicago, is this really an improvement? Does the traditional BP usage work better than the new way that Baldelli works the pen? To me, that's one of the most interesting differences in these two teams. On the surface, it would appear the DS have the velocity advantage. But we all know velocity doesn't guarantee anything. It still comes to getting OUTS. I find both staffs virtually equal, but the Twins having better depth and some guys that frankly, were it 4yrs ago, would already be locked in vs being off the 40 man, give the Twins better depth overall.

Yes, I'm an optomist in general, but Polanco has been one of those "special" prospects to me since signed as a glove-first SS with a questionable bat. (My how things change over time). When the bat started to come on while in milb, he was often one of the best hitters on his team. By the 2nd half of the season, he was often slid in to the 3 spot, or similar, to provide an offensive spark even if be didn't have big power numbers. Right or wrong, the former FO decided be could never be a viable ML SS and began to move him. Then, short of available talent, he basically burns an option year by being promoted and barely used too early. Molitor likes what he sees and puts him back at SS and even hit him 3rd quite often. His initial introduction to MLB wasn't exactly handled with great care but he's worked hard, always been a gamer, and never complained. Forgive my memory, but there was one season, '16 or '17, when we began to see what the bat could become but he also struggled after the death of his grandfather, IIRC. In 2019 he made the All Star team before his ankle issues basically ruined the 2nd half of the year. We all know now the repair to his ankle didn't work and he played on one good leg all of 2020. No need to re-hash all of that. And we can debate forever about how good/decent or bad he is at SS WHEN HEALTHY. Personally, I think a healthy Polanco is OK at SS and I'm fine with him as the occasional backup. I do like him better at 2B, however. What I don't think can be debated is just how good his offense has been and can be with 2 healthy wheels under him. It sure sounds like his 2nd surgery has gone very well. He has more than enough athleticism and talent to be an excellent 2B. And his bat is "complete" as a healthy hitter and even dangerous, though he is stronger from the more important left side. I absolutely agree he will be an All Star at 2B, whether it's this season or beyond. But what's much more important is him just being healthy and doing what he is capable of doing. And I think he's primed and ready to do that in 2021. And beyond.

This was wonderful, Seth. Not only does he have one of the best names I've ever heard for a potential ML'er, but he is bright, enthusiastic and effusive. What an engaging young man! I have a feeling he's one of the most popular players on any team he's on!

Just horrible news for the entire Bell family. Cancer is never a thing to be taken lightly, but I sure thought from the initial reports this was something they had addressed and he had a hopeful prognosis. Love and prayers for the entire Bell family! As far as the game and Happ, meh, he's behind schedule and trying to ramp up as quickly as be can. I refuse to not be concerned but I recognize it's early for him, he has a couple more starts to go, and a lot of times veteran arms like Happ ARE just getting in innings and working on things. We've all seen veteran guys just turn on a switch when the season starts and they suddenly look like themselves. Will that happen here? No way to know. But having Dobber ready to go if he needs a little more time or needs a piggyback is quite the luxury.

Everyone healthy, this is the opening roster that makes the most sense, and has made the most sense for a long time. AK isn't ready YET. But he will be up soon. And this is the opening roster, not the final 2021 roster. So don't freak out! You just can't keep Garlik over Rooker. Funny how some see Astudillo as a fun story and nothing more, and yet the Twins see him as a nice 26th man. Me? I really like him, healthy. Because when healthy, he's a decent fielder and solid bat off the bench as the 26th man. And that's important. 2022 and beyond, he and Cave are questionable. But why do we worry about that now? I LOVE our top 3 SP and really like our 4/5 knowing Dobnak and Thorpe are going to contribute with a couple stud arms in the wings. Bullpen, to me, looks nice with a collection of 40 man options plus. I'm ready for the season to start!

I take nothing negative from Pineda's performance, nor should you. He's just trying stuff, working on stuff, and getting his innings in. Period. Very happy that we finally have a final and positive outcome in regard to Thorpe's extra option year. This is not just good news for the Twins, but as much so for Thorpe. After his disappointing 2020, and there is no further reason to reflect or react, he came to camp in great shape mentally, emotionally and physically. He has shown to the Twins and himself he is ready. There are only so many roster spots available to begin the season. NOW, which version of him begins 2021? Is it the 2020 version who suffered and struggled with "whatever"? Or is he the talented young prospect who lost 2yrs due to injury and illness and fought hard to re-establish himself as a quality/top prospect and who has worked so hard now to get ready for 2021? I'm betting on the latter and fully believe Thorpe and Dobnak will play important roles in 2021 in the pen and rotation while also making themselves pertinent parts of the 2022 staff. As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started? Waddell isn't going to break camp unless there is an injury. And I know his appearances were mostly late innings, but DAMN, can't you still be impressed by a relatively young LHP doing tbat well? Watch out Thielbar.

While appearing to be speaking out of both sides of my mouth, I am not worried about the pen, and am actually pretty optimistic, while also being concerned. Why concerned: Losing May. Let's be honest, he wasn't always Mr. Consistent. There were times he'd walk someone and then allow a big double or HR before striking out the side. But there were plenty of times where he was in a groove and could just be nasty. And once in a while you just need that high velocity, high K to come out of the pen. I really would have liked to spend a little more $ and kept him. Even if Wisler has a great year, he's not going to duplicate last season. But he was solid and versatile. The Twins have reasons for not keeping him that sort of make sense, but be was inexpensive enough I probably would have kept him. Forgetting Clippard is out now, we lost a very consistent middle inning arm who has proven himself over and over again. Why not worried: OK, RP are volatile in nature, such is their role, except for the best of the best. But there is no age or injury factor or years of mileage on Roger's arm not to expect a rebound. While I would have liked to keep May, how can we feel bad about Colome? They guy has been very good and very consistent for the past few years. I just bring myself to feel bad we have him. Robles was a poor signing if you only look at his horrendous 2020. But that's true for a TON of pitchers and players from 2020. His last few previous seasons are very good. The scales tip to the positive no matter how hard you look. Duffey started slow in ST, looked good, then had a bad game. It's ST! He's working on stuff, getting his work in, and I'm just not worried until I see something that should make me worry. Frankly, while optimistic, I'm more worried about Stashak and Thielbar continuing to prove they are good. I think they will, particularly the younger Stashak. I'm "worried" how long it may take Alcala to really harness his stuff and show the confidence in himself to replace May. The stuff is there, we've all seen it. We all have our thoughts, which is great, but IMPO, there are no "easy" removals from the 40 man to add additional BP arms unless someone, unfortunately, ends up on the 60 day list. But despite some top young arms like Colina and Chalmers and the possible, temporary, usage of young SP in the pen, the FO went out and loaded up on interesting depth pieces. Who ever heard of Harper, Wisler or Matt Magill before they came out of nowhere the past few years to provide real help for a time? For that matter, who really expected the re-appearance and re-surgance of Thielbar? How about Stashak looking like a keeper after being an OK milb starter? While gone now, what about what Littel did when given a shot? Only time will tell about Farrell, Waddell, Clay and Hamilton, maybe Sparkman, Minya and others. But it's a very interesting collection of arms with ML experience and none. 30yrs old and younger. Decent to excellent FB and sliders and other various other offerings that give St Paul a great introductory season BP while providing depth for the Twins. I get a kick out of "secret sauce" and it gives me a chuckle. What it really means is a collection of great coaches, given great data, and a collection of arms to work with and develop. But quick now, tell me the last great RP you can think of that was a RP all through milb and dominated at the ML level? Even just limiting it to the Twins, despite some successful role players, the best of the best were former SP. The nucleus is in place for an excellent back 4. There is the potential for a really good middle ground, with some exciting arms getting close. There are some really interesting depth options who could surprise given need and opportunity. (Again, a potential 40 man crunch). Secret sauce? No. Just some really smart baseball people with the Twins. Concern? Yes. I want to see the transition take place and work as well as hoped for. Worried? Not at this point.

I've been waiting to hear but missed it somewhere. I can assume now, apparently, that Thorpe was indeed awarded the extra option year, yes?

I am telling you, for the record, we have not seen the best of Berrios yet. He hasn't won a Cy Young yet at 27yo so fan hope has lead to hopeful expectation that he hasn't reached yet, and therefore, to some, he's been a bit of a disappointment. Not bad by any means, but he remains only "solid". With his experience and work ethic, an adjusted training schedule, a few more mechanical tweaks, he's about ready to show us how good and consistently good he can be. It sure woukd be nice to find common ground for a fair/expensive extension because his value is only going to increase.

I think this was the right move at this time and I don't believe it had anything to do with service time. I also don't think this in any way diminishes the Twins opinion of him or that he loses any luster off his prospect status. The kid is going to be very good. It's just his time YET. Look, I get disappointment and I can almost appreciate the counter point arguements. But for a veteran player who has proven himself, ST is about ramping up and just getting ready. But for a young prospect and an invite, it is a time to show you are ready. It's the same in the NFL and the NBA. If AK was taking some walks and stinging the ball but had a low AVG that would be one thing. But he's not "settled", locked in or in any kind of groove right now. Another good prospect, Rooker, IS. Rooker has a chance to be a really nice ballplayer and have a real role on this team as a corner OF/1B/DH. Why aren't we celebrating him vs being so worried and filled with angst that Kirilloff isn't breaking camp with the Twins? AK is going to come up and probably have an excellent career. And by the end of the season his being sent down at this time is going to fade away as a memory and some AAA time will just be a small step in his career.

Guys in the high 80's who mix it up and change speeds and hit their spots can start. I think he's a #5. I also think he's behind a couple guys right now and is best as a middle/swing guy.

I thought all along Odorizzi would be back. I'm surprised he's not. Why he's not is moot at this point. For this ONE YEAR that is 2021, reflective of Happ's age, I believe any 2 of 3 of Pineda, Happ and Oddo are the same quality of pitcher. So I'm good with 3-4 and love our top 2. Shoemaker was a smart sign. He could be about the best #5 SP in the league if healthy enough for 22/23 starts. If I could be guaranteed he'd be available for 14 and just be his normal career self, I'd still be happy. Because by the end of the season you don't only have Donnak and Thorpe, but you've got at least a couple more arms that are probably ready to make their debuts.

#1] The jury is still out on Dobnak as it should be for any young pitcher. After only 75IP at the ML level you still don't know what you have, whether he's a top prospect or a great story and surprise. BUT, in his milb career and those 75 IP Dobnak has performed and looked good thus far. (There are ALWAYS highs and lows for ANY pitcher, young or veteran). I have listened to and watched Dobnak pitch almost every game since his debut. He seems to have control, an idea how to pitch the mythical "bulldog" mentality you want, and doesn't seem to beat himself. I've been generally impressed from what I have seen from a YOUNG pitcher still feeling his way and learning. What has been frustrating is his inability to just make that ONE PITCH to get a guy out who battles him hard. And I'm not talking about necessarily striking someone out. He seems to often cruise and then spend too much time in a battle that limits his potential to extend himself in a game. It's always felt to me he was just lacking that little something, that one offering, that could provide a K or an earlier out to just be done and move on. (He stated that same thing in an interview after his performance today). He doesn't have to suddenly find some crazy new velocity mark or amazing SO per 9. All he's needed is just another pitch on a consistent basis he could rely on. It may only be ST, but the early returns are exciting. But no, there is no controversy regarding Shoemaker's spot. Barring injury or some continued ineptitude...remember Shoemaker looked good previously...a talented, experienced and healthy Shoemaker is a quality SP. He has his spot. Dobnak is clearly the 6th man at this point and ready and able. Opportunity will present itself. Funny how close we are to the Twins in our view/perspective of things and our opinion. Perhaps skewed too much to the past? This rotation is the best we've had in YEARS. And to have someone like Dobnak looking good and showing improvement and a former top prospect like Thorpe doing the same...WOW. #2] I feel sorry for Garlik. He's done everything he can do to make an impression, if not the roster. But no way you keep him over Rooker. But there will be opportunity at some point.

Let me state that while it remains to be seen if May can find the consistency needed to go from good to great, I wanted him back. Frankly, I was a little surprised by what he got. Getting outs is what's most important, and there are a lot of ways to get them. But every once in a while it sure makes you feel good to have a high velocity, high K to put on the mound. And until Alcala, or someone else, becomes that arm, it's the ONE part of the pen that gives me pause. I'm in the camp of trusting Rogers, Colome and Duffey. I've said before and say again that Robles could be a key. While the nature of RP is volatile, I look at his career body of work and I can't help but dismiss his awful as an aberration. If he is his normal career self, I feel confident in our back 4 with some nice middle pieces in Thielbar, Stashak and the potential of Alcala. So I'm with Ted on that. Where I'm going to disagree, however, is the depth issue. Very few teams draft and develop and nurture a bullpen fireman through their milb system. Absolutely bullpen arms are developed and reach MLB and do well. But unlike years/decades ago, bullpen arms are no longer regarded as "failed" starters. A pitcher is not a "failure" because he couldn't be a rotation fixture and instead becomes a valuable and reliable RP. Wisler was a tremendous find last year and thought the Twins should have brought him back. I get they had mild concerns about arbitration numbers based on a season he couldn't hope to duplicate again and wanting to have more "option" flexibility with the front half of their pen. I still think they should have brought him back. But who was he this time last year? How highly regarded was Stashak 2yrs ago? Or Thielbar last year? I'm not degrading anyone or wanting to sound condescending in any way, but the Twins are neck deep right now in Wisler-type to work with and develop and promote as needed. I am also not going to blow smoke up anyone's backside, to use a favorite old euphemism, that they have a collection of prized, surprise studs at the ready. And I'm also not going to get too high or too low on ST numbers and their SSS. But just look at the list of possibilities for depth at St Paul: Anderson, Coulombe, Farrell, Hamilton, Law, Minaya, Sparkman and Waddell. Most of these guys have at least appeared in the ML meaning they aren't just wide-eyed rookies. Now, also think about Colina and Chalmers...who I still very hope will find a 3rd pitch and maintain the control he suddenly found the last half of 2019 and stay in the rotation...along with other prospect arms who could be knocking on the AAA door if not kicking it down. And we're not even talking about top SP prospects helping out in the pen before hopefully settling in to a rotation spot. Sorry. I'm not buying a depth issue, especially with what this staff has done the past few years. My only concern is Rogers, Colome, Duffey and Robles just being themselves. Give me that and I'm very happy. Tell me Alcala is going to continue to harness his stuff and improve and I'm almost ecstatic. But depth is not my worry.

Regarding payroll, I've also read different $ numbers at different sites. And I could be wrong, but I think FanGraphs at $129M is the most accurate and seems to track the various running totals presented here on TD. With incentives, primarily Maeda, the projected final number is around $134M. Depending on where you look, the adjusted 2020 payroll was around $138-140M. So they are very close to the projected numbers of last year. In regard to Robertson, he was on my 2nd tier of want and "why not" list. He's had a fine career and I have been very surprised someone hasn't given him a look-see at this point. You would think he'd be worth a couple $M with some incentives. I can only assume that there simply wasn't enough known about his recovery, early enough, for anyone to make a move when the FA glacier finally nudged forward. I would have no problem with the Twins taking a closer look. He could be a steal. But at this point, aren't we talking about a milb deal with incentives and an opt out? I would do that though, in a heartbeat.

Does it get much better than Cruz as your DH? He has defied Father Time so well that I just believe he has at least one more high quality season in him. But as Nick states, he could "come down to earth" this season, see his OPS drop a 100 points and STILL be a dangerous, productive hitter. There is also a TON of depth to handle the spot when necessary and looking further down the road as well. Kind of amazing that he did very little at the ML level until he was 28yo. While i wouldn't dare to compare them, it sort of gives perspective on someone like Rooker who is only 26yo but has a potentially fine bat and has made steady progress every season after being signed out of college. And yet some question his potential because he may be too old.

100% agree with this and have been arguing for it even without all the data points presented. Arrraez and Polanco are my choices to bat #1 for all the reasons we already know and have discussed. I've struggled with the 5 spot being Sano or Garver with the other probably hitting 7th whenever Kirilloff takes over LF for good. Some good debate about how to stack Buxton and Simmons. And yes, the lineups will always be fluid so everyone rests and plays and Arraez won't be in the lineup every day. But the basic stacking of the lineup just seems so obvious to me.

Maybe I've just always been a fan of Kepler due to his story and his athleticism. IMO, he started behind similar young players when he was initially signed. He played in Germany and didn't have the same level of opposition or camps or touring teams, etc, that his counterparts had as HS'ers in the US. And here I go with, "that being said", he's been in the league long enough now that it's time to see him hit his ceiling and harness all that athleticism on a more consistent basis. Now, I think he did that in 2019. I'm willing to throw out 2020 for Kepler the same as I am for a number of guys. And I think that's fair to do as we all know how strange last year was for everyone in so many different ways. I have no negative issues going in to this year, and a lot of belief, UNLESS we see a repeat of 2020. Numbers I've seen somewhere recently showed he had some really good numbers leading off a game. That can be a great way to jump start your team. And I'm sure Rocco has all the data points that makes him believe Kepler is a good choice as the #1 batter. But I really think he's more valuable hitting lower in the 3-4-5 spots mixed in with Donaldson and Cruz and ahead of Sano for sure. And there were some very interesting numbers about Kepler on the ST Live podcast Tuesday concerning his being better than average when it comes to SO and moving runners along, etc. Ax far as the future goes and depth, I find myself wondering about room for Max along with Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Sano come 2022 and beyond. Not saying a trade couldn't happen, but 5 guys and 4 spots, is there room for everyone? There could be. I think it's something to contemplate.

I'm not sure why, but the extra option is up before an arbitrator. I've heard the final decision is supposed to come down this week. Not sure how anyone could rule against Thorpe and the Twins and not grant the extra option.

Dobnak is not only a great story, but his milb numbers and 70+ IP at the ML level should provide optimism. His biggest problem, as Dman pointed out, and something I've pointed out previously, is too many "battles" with hitters. He seems to have everything to be a solid 4-5-6 pitcher and have a successful to very successful career. What's missing is eliminating those 6-8 AB outs. A better defense behind him helps as he is a ground out pitcher. But once in a while you need that SO or a couple more wezl pop ups. What's crazy is this recent adjustment is only weeks old. Johnson magic? Maybe. But Dobber is pretty heady, if you haven't figured that out already. And he's ready for whatever. He may or may not be a fixture in the rotation as a 3-5 SP option. I am crazy excited about the future of Duran, Balazovic and Canterino, amongst others. And I am SUPER excited about Thorpe if he gets the 4th option year because he can spend a full year between teams finally getting his stuff together. But from what we have already seen from Dobber in 77IP, imagine how good he could be with a better slider to go along with his sinker and control?

Happ making his debut is the most important thing. Really good chance be gets 3 more starts and can also be the 5th starter to open the season to continue his ramp up. Thielbar ready to pitch is great. Takes far less for him to get ready as a RP. Garlik is on the 40 man and has done all he can. But he absolutely has to be behind the younger Rooker if there is a spot on the initial roster.