DocBauer

I like Correa. I've become a fan of his. Despite his final numbers looking good, I don't believe he produced up to his contract and reputation. He was just too often invisible at the plate the 1st half. And I know a late start and his illness was probably part of that. But I think he's a great player, better than his production in 2022, and has a very good career going forward. He's not old! But he is one year older now. I've always had a hard time buying in to the 10yr $350M idea. Just because Texas did almost the same with Seager doesn't mean someone else will be willing to do the same, or better that deal. The Yankees have to re-sign Judge. Period! And they've been very protective of their young SS prospects. Even with their ultra deep pockets, they've been best when building from within. And even they have a budget. So I say no. Boston, LA, and Atlanta have what they need already in place if they just re-sign and keep continuity. Why would they spend, potentially, even more rather than keep what they have? Of course, I'd they did, now there's a new SS player in the field looking for a team and a deal and that changes the complexion of things. I don't buy in to the Cubs or the Cardinals. Despite deep pockets, the Cubs ownership seems to have a history of being frugal. They went all in a couple years ago and then tore things down. Just a hunch, but I don't think they feel they are ready to make that kind of 1 player splash right now. The Cardinals have ALWAYS been one of the best run franchises in all of MLB. And they haven't been adverse to spending good $ on a great ballplayer. But they are already very good, and don't they have to try re-sign Arenado? The Phillies, Angels, Giants and Dirty Sox make sense to me as competition. The Philles haven't been shy lately about spending to chase winning. They're chasing both Atlanta and the Mets right now. Are they willing to add another big name and contract to get it done? The Giants have made splashes before. But after riding career highs from just about everyone in 2021 and then falling way back this season, are they looking a re-build or re-load? The Dirty Sox have Anderson at SS already. They are an interesting mix of veterans and youth. Can they convince Anderson to move to a different spot? They might be a real player to help erase 2022. And the Angels, to me, are the mystery team. They have $! They need pitching and keep losing despite having 2 of the best players in all of MLB. The SP FA market isn't as good as last year, and their huge run at drafting only pitching isn't going to pay off for a couple of years. But they seem to have a history of making moves well outside the box. Might they just blow Correa and Boras out of the water to add a 3rd star player without having a complete team and hope pitching turns out soon? IMO, the teams to seriously sign Correa, in no exact order are the Phillies, Giants, Angels and MAYBE the Dirty Sox. This makes sense to me. (I think it would be a mistake for the Angels and Sox, but who knows). I'm thinking depressed value, only slightly, due to one year older and post covid attendance, etc, etc, at 8yrs and $280M. (Remember, he already got $35M this year). Going to say this one more time and then I promise myself I won't get drawn in to yet another "Correa what if" thread ever again. The Twins will not get a hometown discount from Correa/Boras unless we're talking about very close numbers and Correa and family really, really liking Minnesota. The only way he re-signs here is: 1] The market is depressed due to existing payrolls, low attendance affecting payrolls, teams up against their numbers, potential landing sites wanting to keep their own players, etc. 2] Even with factor #1, the Twins will need to go at least 7yrs, possibly 8, which would take him to age 34-35, at around $30-35M per...depending again on factor #1...which means a MINIMUM of $210M and probably closer to $270-280M. And they would have to probably front load the deal, which they could, at $35-40M the first few years to help offset the last few years when Correa probably declines and maybe changes positions. That's it. 7 or 8 years and front loaded and knowing he won't be the same player in his last couple of years, probably. Hell, maybe he pulls a Ripken and can still be a quality SS who produces at that age. And MAYBE, for various reasons, the market just goes unexpectedly dry and he has to "settle" for 6-7 years only and "only" $30M on average per year. I know, fantasy land, right? But I've seen crazier things happen. Sorry, but unless the market or the Twins go nuts, he's not coming back. Time for plan B. Honestly, as much as I'm a fan of Correa and would love to keep him somehow, are the Twins maybe better off spending his salary over the entire ark of the team rather than the one player????

How can Rocco regain Twins fans favor? Win. But even that won't change opinions already entrenched in some people's minds. But imploring him to "win" is so simplistic. He needs the players to be good enough to WIN. Again, rather simplistic. Too simplistic. There IS talent on this roster, and talent still arriving, and soon, as well as still developing. I.E., the young arms in particular, who seldom if ever arrive as a finished product. A couple solid moves to augment what is already here and better health than the almost historical amount of injuries actually makes this a pretty good team. Look, I like Rocco as a person, but I'm no defender of his. Personally, I think he's a pretty average manager at this point. Can he adapt and learn and grow? Hopefully. On the positive side of things, I think his players like working under him. Since he's been in charge, the clubhouse has largely been a harmonious one. Other than some comments made by Shoemaker after he was gone, I've never heard a single player speak ill of Rocco, or the FO for that matter. And I don't buy that the players don't play hard or "give up". I've seen too many games, including this season, where they lost to better teams but still showed effort and took some of those games to extra innings by battling back. We have to remember, back up and AAA or AAAA players are what they are at times, because they aren't as good, or not good enough YET, to be regulars. When you play lesser talent, you get poorer results. But there is, IMO, a definite poor side to Rocco as a manager. I believe some of the basic fundamentals of good defense, throwing to the right base, backing up properly, running the bases properly, are things that ARE in control of a manager and his staff. Should players...good players...already know that stuff? ABSOLUTELY! But that doesn't mean good, sound, fundamental baseball can't or shouldn't be drilled and worked on. And I don't mean being a drill sergeant on days off or pre-game, I just mean continuing to work on and do the basics and improve on them. That's on the manager and his staff and I don't think there's been enough of that. Small ball is not an answer, to those who miss it. As pointed out previously, bunts lead to outs. Stolen bases only work when you have guys who can be successful at least 75% of the time. Now, that doesn't mean there aren't times when a bunt is a good strategy. Leon pulled off a couple great bunts once he came to us, because he knows how to. (It's a lost art really). And when your team is struggling to score, or advance runners from 2B, YES, it's OK for the manager to call for a bunt or play some hit and run once in a while. But it's not going to be a daily strategy, nor should it be, and not only does the situation matter, but so does the guy up to bat. Not much worse than a SO throw out type of scenario to kill an inning. The ML average of a SP is 5.2 IP. The Twins were 4.8. That's a full IP difference. Not good. But when Archer and Bundy are in your rotation, and you're brining up rookies and AAAA starters your hands are going to be tied. A healthier and stronger rotation allows 5-6 IP and not 4-5 IP. That's not on Rocco. NOW, I DO AGREE that Rocco has pulled a SP having a very good performance too early at times. I understand the 3rd time through an order numbers, as well as a reliever having a clean inning. The numbers are there to prove those approaches. But there ARE times to trust in that SP having a really good day and at least sending him out to see. And if anyone didn't notice, he's given Gray and Ryan both increased opportunities to go 6 or more the second half of the year. And Ober was cruising against the Dirty Sox recently and went 7. Load management is one thing, but sometimes, yes, you trust your guy and let them at least start the extra inning. I think Rocco has positives as a manager and is OK. Not great, but OK. I think just feeling the flow of the game and letting his starter get a longer shot once in a while would be good. I think trying a bunt or hit and run once in a while in a close game, or with the offense struggling is worth a shot to shake things up. And I ABSOLUTELY believe he and his staff should run drills here and there and just focus on the nuances of the game not being performed properly. He's not a great manager. But he can get better by using his experience as a player and do a better job of just "feeling the flow" of the game and drilling in the important daily parts of how to play sound baseball. I don't know how you evaluate the coaches. For every "throw your hands up" send from Watkins at 3B, there's been at least as many aggressive moves that were smart and paid off. But we really don't see what they all do, much less how well they do it. No offense to Tingler, but is he really the right guy to have Rocco's ear? After Shelton left and Bell passed away, I've been concerned about the bench coach situation. How much input does Rocco have in coaching decisions? Again, I don't know. But he DOES have control of how things are run. He doesn't have to, and really can't, change how the Twins play ball. But he DOES have the ability to take charge to work on the basics that have seemed lax at times. And he CAN trust his "player" gut more in regard to trying a few things once in a while to "make something happen". Those are the things in his control to be better at his job, hopefully help the Twins win a couple more close games, and MAYBE, gain back fan support.

After making him an overslot priority draft choice and protecting him post surgery just as he was looking like the player you drafted and then having an expected OK but not great re-hab 2022 year, do you NOT protect him again? And I'm sure you're right about DFA vs rule 5. But the end results remain the same, don't they? You keep him or risk him.

It's, late. The season is done. There's a lot of apathy I know. And the lineup is filled with AAA players and reserves. But it's still been interesting and I hope, important to see a few kids getting their opportunity to grow these last couple of weeks from Wallner to Varland to Rodriguez to the "re-habbing" Winder, etc. Very, very nice to see Ober have a solid game after a tremdous start his last time out. I really think the Twins missed Ober as much as anyone this year. He had a really nice rookie season in 2021 and is absolutely better than either Bundy or Archer. The guy mystifies me. He puts up video game numbers, but is hurt a lot. So then he re-vamps his his mechanics and adds velocity and health. He's just as good, or better, than rookie sensation Ryan in 2021, adjusting his mechanics on the fly, and gets better as the season goes on. But there is debate about IP for a rookie doing well. As if doing well isn't good enough. And he starts his 2nd season looking good before injury. And then he finishes 2022 looking very solid yet again. Ober looks like a legitimate #3-4 if healthy. Nobody wants to hear it, but with little exception, every prospect is a mid rotation starter until they prove otherwise. Pitching pipeline? Ryan is GOOD! So is Ober if he can STAY healthy, which he was in 2021 as they built him up. You want an ACE to come through the system? I do too. How many #1 ACES come up through anyone's system? You have 10 arms and 5 turn out. Two or three go to the pen. A couple turn out to be quality starters. After a couple of years, one of them turns in to a #1 starter and potential ACE. Ryan has the "attitude" of being a #1, but is an un-finished product. Ober has as good or better stuff, but is also un-finished, and needs to stay healthy. Varland and Winder and SWR and others have the ability to be top of the rotation arms at some point. But to think ANY arm is SUPPOSED to be some kind of ACE is blindingly ignorant to me. Every single young and promising young arm is still a pitcher learning and adapting. How good could Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and others be 2-3yrs from now? But, of course, we want the to be STUD #1 or #2 starters NOW!

Almost an impossible task to speculate since we just don't know about 2023 payroll, or how the coaches and FO feel about certain players. I mean, just as an example, do they really value Smeltzer as a 7-9 SP option with the idea he might be a great fit as a middle/long man in 2023, something they need but have been lacking the past few years? If so, he's probably a keeper. But maybe they see him as a split contract milb contract and ML invite. Just an example. 52 guys rostered right now. Just to re-hash, Archer, Bundy, Coulombe, Fulmer, Sanchez, Sachez, Hamilton, Hamilton, Leon, Correa, Sano, Cave, and Contreras all gone. 52 minus 13 brings us to 39. Personally, despite their stubbornness to hold on to Pagan, they need to add from within and they need from without. He's questionable, but I think he's gone or traded for a bag of balls. Palacios just hasn't shown anything with the bat, unfortunately, in SSS to indicate he should be kept. Romero spent almost the entire year on the IL, as did Stashak. Even if you like their arms when healthy, neither has shown enough to warrant being protected. Megill throws hard, has a really nice breaking ball, looked good early, and then looked bad. Do you keep a 31yo Garlick when you really need to find someone better? And then you come to the Smeltzer question I mentioned as an example. You MIGHT keep EITHER Pagan or Megill. But I don't see it. A healthy Alcala is better than both. You need middle arms and have a bunch of guys to look at in that role that Pagan and Megill don't fill. Smeltzer might be kept because he can potentially fill a certain role. So that's a good 6 more spots you can free up. That 33 spots with 7 open slots. Let's assume 1 quality SP to have a good rotation and depth because there are so many question marks attached to what's coming back. Add Fulmer back in, or MAYBE someone you like better. We need a catcher, and probably have to have a 3rd on the roster, which MIGHT be Leon back, or Isola, or Camargo. MAYBE. And an actual, quality, RH hitting OF is a MUST. And you almost have to find a temporary SS. So that's at least 5 you need to add, if not 6. The roster suddenly jumps to 38 or 39. One more spot opens if you leave Smeltzer off, in my isted scenario. I've counted the roster numbers 4 times and I keep coming up with 52, not 50. Is my math off? Is the Twins website showing incorrectly and a couple guys already DFA'ed are being listed? Please tell me if I've made a mistake because I keep seeing 52, letting everyone go except maybe Smeltzer, in my example, adding 5 or 6, and suddenly you're at 38-39 before you want to add someone else besides a #3 catcher. So you have room to add just 1 or 2 prospects? Unless my math is just wrong, another 2 or 3 will have to be removed in order to add. Despite a preponderance opinion the Twins have a lot of "dead weight" to let go, I don't think that's true. Do you let someone like Enlow face rule 5 after coming off surgery and risk him? Do you not protect Canterino while rehabbing him? Despite recent debate/discussion that the Twins milb system is weak, there are some good players facing rule 5 you'd like to keep and might not have room to protect, hoping they aren't selected, or are returned. And there are a couple AAAA players that might turn out OK and helpful that might look elsewhere rather than coming back on a milb deal. But ultimately, this team is not devoid of talent, even with the obvious deductions, and they might have to roll the dice on a couple of young players not protected in order to keep others.

Cave has been much better of late, more like the player he was hus first 2 years. No matter what his future in baseball, Contreras will be able to point to 2022 as being a ML ballplayer with some HR's and runs scored and knocked in. I wouldn't mind seeing both back next season for St Paul on milb deals but their future might be elsewhere. Wish Bundy had gotten his winning record for 2022, and he's been an average pitcher this season, he's taken the ball every 5th day and largely given the team a chance, but he should be in a different uniform next year. Despite getting hung with the loss today, Henriquez seemed to finish his time at St Paul on the upswing and hasn't looked bad with the Twins. I don't like pulling SP candidates out of the rotation too early...understanding they can still return...but I think he might be a mid/long relief candidate in 2023. No matter how the pen is ultimately constructed next year, the Twins simply can't ignore the role of middle inning arms any longer. It would be nice to have 2. Having a LH would be a bonus, but not a necessity. Any starter not in the rotation should be under consideration for such a role. Henriquez is one of those to consider. Really looking forward to SWR's ML debut Sunday!

I could have been a little more clear in some of what I said. Too many thoughts all at once. I'll try to sort it with a little more clarity and brevity. Yes to keeping Urshela. No to an extension as he's not part of the future. Yes, I think Miranda is OK at 3B and will get better, hence, younger and the better bat, he's clearly the better overall player and part of the future, or the "new core". Maybe, that Miranda is the full time future 3B. He can be! But Lee just might end up an even better fit there, or possibly Lewis depending on how SS turns out. (Which is still obviously a mystery). AK is also in the mix at 1B and could be outstanding there and at the plate. He might take a while after this surgery to get back, he might be 100% right away, and it might not work. So Miranda could end up at 3B or 1B or do what he's doing now and play both. My whole was an attempt to say good players and depth is needed, wanted, and a good thing. That's why having Urshela back is smart. It's why Miraanda's flexibility is a good thing. In an ideal world, at this point next year, we'll have Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Lee, and Gordon all ready to be part of 2024 is some configuration. You can never have enough good players. I'm not with you on moving Polanco. He was great last year and good again this year until injured. I want to say he was leading the team in RBI and 2nd or 3rd in OPS before he went down. Anyway, I'm not sure yet when Julien is going to be ready, and is he sticking at 2B? I think Martin is headed to the OF and will cover some INF, but not be a fixture there. (A hunch). And while Lee or Lewis could also be excellent 2B, until we see how the rest of the INF shakes out, the last thing I want to do is create another potential hole. Besides, a healthy Polanco is just damn good and I'm not ready to move on at this time. But, I'd be willing to re-visit your idea next offseason, if not the trade deadline this upcoming season.

Stringer, first off, just an excellent post and I think you hit just about everything on the nail head. Honest truth, robbed a little thunder of what I'm wanting to post myself in a blog. I really appreciated one of your initial comments about trying to figure out how the Twins can possibly fit all their position players on the roster at one point. I'm in the same boat both then, and looking at next year. Despite the naysayers, I'm very excited about the POTENTIAL of the lineup in 2023. Other than SS, there isn't a major hole anywhere on the roster with a return to health. Amazing that a team can hit, get OB, and be amongst the best in all MLB getting a runner in from 3B but be amongst the worst at getting runners advanced or IN from 2B. There is a disconnect somewhere that is hard to quantify. I think, in retrospect, the early SP was a bit of an illusion. Bundy has actually been about what most teams would love to have in a 5th starter. The problem was, that role fell to Archer, who never took a step forward. And while Gray was very good, and Ryan had a wonderful rookie season, they were doomed by not adding someone from a tremendous FA class. My goodness, how much better would the rotation have been if they had signed Cueto, as rumored. Ignoring the pen was ridiculous. Even with a healthy Alcala, the pen needed an arm, and NOT Pagan. The lack of middle relief was a maddening downfall! And despite a team not exactly put together anything close to perfect, I just don't understand anyone not looking at injuries to just about everyone and anyone as not being a devastating blow to a contending team. And I don't think I even have to discuss injuries to the staff. (Ober was vastly missed and nobody talks about that). But how much better is the lineup with potential hitters like AK and Larnach and a healthy Kepler and Polanco beyond July? Instead, August and September, as you stated, the lineup was filled with a pair of Hamiltons and Cave and Contreras. And let's not forget having Beckham as an "emergency" player off the bench. Sheesh! How do you score runs at that point! Agreed there will be some roster turnover. It has to happen. Jeffers needs someone. A quality RH OF is needed. Fulmer needs to be re-signed or replaced adequately. And if Correa is not re-signed, not only do we need to figure out a temp situation, but we have to decide if there is a SP available to add to hedge bets vs just filling in with a young arm and hoping for the best. Agreed there is just too much talent on hand to tear things down. My goodness, with health and just a handful of smart additions, this team could be primed to win the ALC and make noise in the playoffs. But the FO HAS to make those few smart additions to add to the roster as well as hedging bets against injury. I'm an optimist about 2023 if the FO is smart and fills a couple holes and "over does" the roster a bit.

Just want to say I'd give this post a double LIKE if I could!

I absolutely keep Urshela around for that $10M unless there is just a $ crunch where that $ could be spent as part of an even better addition somewhere. You need depth, options, and good ballplayers across the board. And Urshela is a good player. Period. But he's not great, and not part of the future. He makes great plays and passes my eye test. He's fine defensively, but also fails to make some average plays at times. And that's fine! Some of us are just going to have to agree to disagree in regard to Miranda's defense. I've watched enough of him at 3B to believe he's just fine, with room to get better. And that happens by playing. Just really surprised by a rookie being pigeon holed so quickly as being "bad" because of a couple bad plays and a few more at a position, 1B, that's still relatively new to him. Miranda is OK at 3B and has the better bat. But the Urshela, Miranda, and Arraez grouping between 3B/1B/DH worked really well this year and can again. But as much as I like Urshela and want him back, it would only be on the 1yr deal. Miranda is flatly the better bat and part of the future. All that being said, I'm not 100%,convinced that Miranda WILL BE the 3B of the future. That just might be Lee or Lewis with Miranda doing what he is doing now, playing both 1B and 3B. We ALL hope AK will get right and have the kind of career always projected as a 1B/OF. But until we KNOW, Urshela gives you a quality player to plug in at 3B and in the lower 3rd of the lineup. I think Martin is destined to be a part of the OF picture with the ability to plug a spot here and there in the INF. That still leaves Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Arraez, and maybe Julien somewhere to cover all across the INF along with Gordon and HOPEFULLY AK. But that's the future and not NOW. Urshela IS a "bird in the hand", and a pretty good one. The one thing I WOULD DO with Urshela in ST is move him around some. He has very limited experience at 1B and 2B, but he's definitely played some SS before, including with the Yankees. I don't know how good/bad/average he is there. But if he's at least average, or "ish" there, it increases his value when putting together a lineup, especially early in 2023 waiting on Lewis, potentially. If things break right, and Lewis comes back reasonably early, and AK is ready anywhere from early to June-ish, what's the worst case scenario??? You suddenly have too much talent and not enough room??? Boy, that's a problem I'd love to see the Twins have! KEEP HIM! But no extension at this time.

No question he's a keeper. Too talented for anyone to give up on after a bad year. He's got a great frame, velocity and some solid secondaries. His 2021 was solid, but a mixed bag. He was dominate at times, pretty average at times, but had a decent year overall. A few bumps in the road, especially if he's working on things or trying something different, aren't unexpected. I was thinking his early setback in 2022 was a knee. The bad back makes more sense. He started late, may have been stiff, hard to know, and I've been of the belief that his mechanics were just really screwed up. If he was actually still injured, he would have been put on the IL. I've said before and say again, I think his biggest problem was between the ears. Mechanics are out of whack, you fight to get them right, all the while you're frustrated because nothing seems to work right. But no question 2023 will be big for his future. He's talented enough and young enough a little time at St Paul won't be a bad thing. But we do need to see the Jordy Blaze of old and maybe some ML time, even at the end of the year, to see that he's still got the future envisioned for him.

Some excellent comments about who and where and numbers that add up to too many potential players for every spot. EXAMPLE: Kirilloff at 1B while still having Arraez and Miranda, etc. But too much talent is never a bad problem. So I am focused solely on the 3 young OF in general, not fitting EVERYONE in to a 26 man roster. Kirilloff, IMO, is the very best of them all IF he can get RIGHT. I'm uneducated enough to have no idea, but smart enough to understand his latest procedure makes real sense. I've seen nothing to show me he can't be a solid OF defensively, but even in SSS, he just looks so natural at 1B. No reason he can't be a great 1B who can play a solid corner OF. From pundits to scouts everyone seems to believe he has everything needed to be a high quality hitter and power producer who is damn good, if not special. Unfortunately, it's about health. And my fingers are cramping up saying this, but I think he's 50-50 ever realizing his potential. But damn, you just don't give up on his potential even if it takes a little time to rehab and get RIGHT. On the opposite end of the spectrum, nothing about Larnach's injuries speaks of a chronic nature. He's flashed when healthy. I've always believed he was just slightly below AK in regard to potential. Always thought they'd be close in ability, with AK just having more of an overall "IT" factor that would make him a slightly higher OPS player, with each similar. If you read Larnach's draft profiles, as I did, and re-read them this year, as I did, you would see about 7 out of 10 saying he had solid defensive ability but simply lacked great range. Only a few profiles ever stated they believed he'd be slow or below average. I believe what we've seen so far is solid with a great arm and room to yet improve. I was pleasantly surprised to see how well he hung in against LH pitching this year. His biggest issue, and a pretty small one at that, is he still needs to learn to develop pull power. He HAS good power, but mostly the opposite way or dead center. If he can learn to pull better, who knows? Might be talking legitimate 30HR production. Just, please, no more weird injuries. Wallner has impressed the hell out of me this year, and I'm not even talking about his SSS with the Twins. He used the AFL to produce a 2022 season in the minors similar to what Miranda did in 2021. He produced tremendous numbers at both AA and AAA...with a couple weeks of adjustment between the two levels...and raised his BB and lowered his SO numbers almost month to month. I wanted him up with the Twins to begin August as a hopeful potential shot in the arm. It happened too late. And while it's SSS to be sure, you can see the talent and potential. He's got a cannon for an arm, same as Larnach. And I've been surprised about his movement in the field and on the basepaths. He's a large man, but slim and long legged. He's absolutely an athlete and not slow. I think he does need to refine his defensive game for better routes, and know when to pull up. He has to know which base to throw to and when. And he has to learn the nuances of Target Field and other parks. What young player doesn't? I'm still expecting Kepler to be a Twin come 2023. He's a league average producer offensively and a great defensive player. And we have enough questions about how healthy and prepared all 3 of these young OF are before we jettison a solid MLer like Kepler. (I understand if he could be part of a great deal and moved). And I'm going to hold out hope that all 3 will be healthy for 2023, especially AK. And it won't dismiss my optimism if Kirilloff needs a little milb time to ramp up. And my optimism of Wallner won't be dimmed if the Twins keep Max in RF and let Wallner begin the year with St Paul despite his great September. Remember, never get too high or too low about ST or September. But I also won't be disappointed if the Twins just "go for it" and pen both Larnach and Wallner in the OF and move Kepler as part of a deal. I just don't expect it right now. As an aside, and beating the proverbial dead horse yet again, however they settle on the opening day roster, the FO absolutely has to add a quality RH hitting OF with some pedigree! You just can't bank on the still developing Celestino as being ready to assume that regular role. And as much as I like Gordon in his role, he's still LH. We need a RH bat to compliment what we have, and what we could have.

We've had enough in disappoinent the past 2 months as to how this really fun year ended souly. I think it's great to have an OP like this...awaiting part 2...to celebrate the good things that happened. I'm SO impressed by Miranda! And he's only going to get better with experience. Amazing how being sent down for a single day and then coming right back suddenly turned on a switch. I think his defense at 1B has really improved the last half of the year. I'm still wondering if Lee doesn't turn out to be the long term answer at 3B, but personally, I've seen enough from Miranda at 3B that I think he's OK there as well and will continue to get better. I like Gray a lot! And not just on the field. I really like his leadership and the way he instituted all the rotation arms to watch the day's SP warm up. He looked dominate at times and OK at others. Being available for 28 starts would make me like him more. Gordon is a great story that just has to make you smile. The kid has been through an awful lot. And all he's done is work hard and do whatever has been asked of him. Learn to play the OF on the fly? No problem! He's shown he can hit and run and play decent defense anywhere he's put. He's even got some pop/power developing and while I don't have numbers in front of me, it just seems as though his OB/recognition ability has grown a bit as the season has gone along. He needs to refine his baserunning more to take advantage of his speed. And I'm not sure he's ever going to be GREAT defensively anywhere in particular, but he's OK about anywhere with room to improve. I say "cool the jets" on Ryan being any kind of ACE. They are very rare! And a large number of them seem to come out of nowhere as a guy just suddenly "clicks" between stuff and knowledge to become something special in his late 20's and early 30's. Ryan is talented, affable, and determined. His fastball is real, despite not amazing velocity. And there's no way you can ignore one of the best recent rookie seasons in Twins history. But while his secondary offerings are solid and sometimes excellent, it's that inconsistency he needs to work on. The vast number of fouled pitches seem to be proof of that. I don't know how good he will eventually be, and I've said many times trying to project someone to be an ACE or even #1 is almost always a fools errand, but I do expect continued growth and improvement from him. Lastly, it is very cool to see Minnesota natives making a mark for the "home team". Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Thielbar is very, very good. I think he's vastly underrated. As long as the velocity sticks around, he's got time left in his arm. Easy to be excited about both Varland and Wallner.

When things go poorly, whether it be an entire season like 2021, or a season like 2022 that showed a lot of promise for the 1st half, there is a natural tendency to ask what went wrong? Who is to blame? That allows for venting. This season DID have promise right up until about mid August and the wheels came off. But to me the rankings or "blame"...and I'm a little uncomfortable with that term...would be ad follows. 1] Injuries 2] The FO 3] Rocco and his staff Maeda was out for all or most of the season before it began. We knew this. Maybe it was a question of WHEN Paddack would be hurt and not IF. And yes, we all pretty much expected to miss time. But did anyone really see Buck hurting his knee the 1st week of the season? Arraez lost bad weight and added good weight and was awesome until he started slumping and battling a few issues. Polanco was healthy and coming of his very best season and even in an offensively depressed year, he was producing until he got hurt. Kepler was still producing at his normal, average self until his foot and hip and whatever else debilitated him. I never expected Larnach to develop a muscle issue that required surgery. I also never expected Jeffers to lose almost half a season due to surgery. The list goes on and on. You can't predict all that happened or prevent it all. I still like so much of what the FO has done previously and I even like a lot of what they did this year. But to have an almost empty rotation and not take advantage of the FA pool except for Bundy and Archer was a huge error in judgment. And while nobody could forsee losing Alcala for all but a couple of IP, the pen still needed re-inforcement even with him being healthy. And while I think Celestino still has a future and I don't hate Garlick, for the 3rd year in a row they didn't have a solid, proven RH bat for the OF. Rocco can only play the hand he's dealt, even if he's given some really bad cards at times. I don't think he's a poor manager, but I also think there's room for improvement. When the offense is struggling, due to injuries or whatever reason, maybe a bunt or two is smart. Maybe a little hit and run needs to be used. But you can't bunt or hit and run or steal bases if the players you have can't execute. And that's not all on Rocco or his staff. What IS on them is not trying something different here and there, or working on better baserunning, or throwing to the right base, etc. So while I'm not a huge Rocco fan and I'm wondering about some of his coaches, he/they are a clear #3 on my list.

Nick, I agree in principle with just about everything you've stated with a few important caveats: 1] The team had a mostly empty cupboard for the rotation except for Ryan and Ober and hope on the shelf. The trade for Gray was solid, and I would have done it again, despite some of his missed starts. But ONLY adding Bundy when there was a plethora of good to really good arms available in FA was a HUGE miscalculation. 2] Either ignoring the BP almost entirely was either a horrible miscalculation or hubris they could just "cobble" an effective pen. 3] Some of the baserunning and defensive lapses and miscues were just unacceptable. Granted, young players will make some mistakes. And the past month or so the lineup has basically been AAA quality at multiple spots. And when you play lesser quality players, you generally expect more mistakes. But that doesn't excuse so many mistakes in the season overall. But yes, the established core of the team was a letdown, at least to some degree. Kepler and Polanco disappeared in the 2nd half, but were good to solid before injury. Buxton hung in and produced until he couldn't any longer. Correa didn't have a very good 1st half. Gray was really good but missed time hurt. And there's more, but that's enough. HOWEVER, what also hurt tremendously was the "new core" unable to largely perform as hoped. Ober got hurt and I think we missed him way more than people realize. AK still wasn't right. Larnach looked really good before his hernia, or whatever his injury is to be called. Lewis looked like everything we hoped for and expected before blowing out his knee. Alcala was basically gone the whole season. Jeffers got hurt just as he was really heating up. No need to go on. So really, there were TWO cores who let the team down, old and new. Thank goodness Urshela, Miranda, Gordon, and Arraez played and produced and were in the lineup regularly or who knows how bad things might have been. As Gleeman is fond of saying, it's possible for 2 things to be true. A vast amount of almost incalculable injuries derailed the 2022 season for the Twins, making BOTH the "old" and "new" core letting the team down. But it's also true that some poor roster construction and lack of fundamentals hurt this team.

At 6' 185lbs, (as he's listed), he may never develop as a 20HR power hitter. But I wouldn't be surprised if HR power develops over time. But with a bunch of doubles, a few triples I'd be fine if he was in the teens. But agree that more power HAS to come unless the BA and OB are well above average or ML pitchers will just dare him to hit. The hit tool and OB ability appear to be there, even though we haven't seen the big average yet. So I'm still holding out belief he's going to raise his game another level soon, and the AFL could be a big springboard for 2023. I just don't know about him sticking at SS. I've always believed if there's a chance for someone to play the spot, even on an average basis, you leave him there as long as possible to see. And reports I've seen have him looking better post wrist injury and fewer errors. But with Lewis and Lee and a large group of new SS additions in the past couple of drafts, it just feels to me the time is right for him to move to the OF. Of course, nothing wrong with him being able to be an infield fill-in when needed. I've heard the FO feels he could transition to the OF almost immediately and be very good there. Maybe it's just time to get the most out of him and could "relax" him in regard to his hitting by making the move. Year three is going to be big for him.

Lewis is an amazing talent, and IMO, a pretty awesome person. He weathered his top draft status and some mild injuries and poor production as a very young man to just keep plugging away and just keep working. And just when it looks like things might be coming together, he looses 2 full years due to covid and a knee injury. And what does he do? He comes back better and faster than he was before. He won't be 24 until June of next year. Seems he's been around for a while now, but he's still very young and at the age where you would normally expect most prospects to reach MLB, despite his setbacks. Maybe, this time, his 75-80 Buxton speed lowers to 65-70. I hope not, but have to be realistic. I've seen enough in his milb hilights and ST games and his early MLB introduction to believe he can be a good to great SS. Maybe not right away, and maybe not GG, but he's got everything to settle in as a quality ML SS. And he can hit, get OB, run, provide good power, and just play the game the way it's supposed to be played. The kid is a "gamer" in the very best sense of the word. And I wouldn't bet against him coming back STRONG. (Even with some rookie growing pains). I'm still amazed, going back to Kubel and Mauer and so many other top prospects over the past 20yrs that have had serious injuries that seem to come out of nowhere. Lewis has already overcome one. I'm willing to bet he overcomes this one as well, even though, POSSIBLY, he has to slide to 3B or another spot. Not saying that will happen, just wondering.

This coming from a fan of Kepler who has always rooted for him and hoped he would nudge his offense up another notch, and who has been disappointed he has never been able to. 1] His career OPS+ is 101. While that number is somewhat skewed by 2019 and 2020, his best 2 years, that's true of every player, where you have lower and greater seasons. So he's not great offensively, never has been, but he's been league average for his career. He's also a gold glove caliber defensive player, which gives him a higher WAR value overall, and raises said overall value. His "problem" is that offensively he should be batting, mostly, lower in the lineup than he's generally been used. 2] His contract for 2023 is not only not expensive, a "normal" Kepler remains league average offensively while having his great defense. But he also fills an important role in 2023 at this point. There remains real hope...you have to have HOPE...that Kirilloff's latest procedure will allow him to continue his career and be the player he can be. What they're doing makes sense, but until we see the resuts.... Larnach doesn't have any chronic injury situation at this point. He's had 2 distinctive and un-related injuries that simply aren't chronic in nature, just unfortunate. But we've seen what he can do when healthy. Wallner has established himself as a top prospect due to numbers and continued improvement. He's looked solid in his debut..which probably should have been a week or two earlier...and that debut will only assist him with making that final step on a permanent basis in the future. But to move Kepler and just trust everything is going to work out is a fools errand. For what has to be at least the 3rd season in a row, the Twins need a RH OF, whether he can play CF or not. But you can't go in to 2023 yet again with only Celestino and Garlick as your RH OF! And you can't just trust everyone else is just going to be fine. Kepler isn't just a 4th OF with his career offense, but he SHOULD play some CF, and he SHOULD sit against LHSP IF you actually have a decent RH option to play both corners at least. And I'm fine if Kepler can be included in a deal to bring in a quality rotation arm. But despite his positives, he's still coming off a bad season and won't bring anything of value by himself. And his value, healthy, just being himself, remains a solid player at this point until AK, Larnach, and Wallner have the opportunity to be healthy and prove themselves.

I get that you're pretty much speaking rhetorically. But when I read your comment, I couldn't help but spill out thoughts. You didn't ask me, but... I GET the Twins philosophy. We don't have a mythical and proverbial ACE like Verlander to lead our staff. And to be fair, there are very few potential HOF ACES that grace many staffs. But we will look for and hopefully develop at least a quality #1. And we will try to fill the rotation with a couple of good #2's and a solid #5, all the while allowing our young SP to rotate in as depth is required. And unless you have an established STUD...again very rare...to lead your staff, numbers indicate we are best letting our quality starters go 5-7 innings and turn it over to the pen. Ideally, with a clean inning to begin. Honestly, kinda sounds smart! Except, if you have either a crappy pen, OR, a pen based on nothing but 1 IP relievers. Then you're just screwed over a season. From what I can deduce, this was, more or less, the PLAN. Additionally, as alluded to, the PLAN was to allow the SP time to build up strength, and experience for younger arms, and then let themselves extend themselves to more 6 and 7 IP games. Any comment attributed to Gray about being disappointed at not pitching longer was explained by himself when offered the opportunity and not being able to do so at one point. His response was he needed to pitch better when given the chance. The practical theory that permeates MLB at this time is 5-6IP by a starter and a strong bullpen. The Twins blew the strong BP right out of the gate. IDK that NOT allowing SP to go longer early in the year and "save" their arms to pitch longer makes sense. Maybe it does for a young arm still developing and learning. And I understand a RP coming in to a clean inning makes sense as well. But unless your SP is going to face the heart of the order a 3rd time, maybe a little more allowance should be shown earlier in the season. I'm not sure " waiting" decreases any sort of injury or production factor. A better built pen makes a difference regardless.

Hey, liked your post and agree to Gordon love. Outplayed everyone else? Can't agree with you there. Larnach is NOT a finished product. Nor is Kirilloff. But the talent and potential of both, and what they've shown when healthy is damn good. Larnach should be 100% coming ST as there is nothing chronic regarding his injuries. I am crossing and double crossing fingers that this latest surgical procedure...makes sense...will allow him to play freely and be the talented player he can be. I love Gordon and have championed him repeatedly over the past couple of years. He's a lock for 2023 and I'm still not certain we've seen the best of him. But he is still best as a super utility player who is in the lineup 4 of 7 games.

One of the worst things that happened in the 2022 milb season was the injury to E Rodriguez who looks like a potential STUD. His development was outstanding and his future looks bright. And while there is no realistic way to include DSL players, as young as they are, in some top 5-7 list, I do applaud you mentioning these kids. Prospect lists are simply speculation, albeit, with experienced opinions. But they fluctuate from year to year, of course. Think Arraez coming from nowhere. Imagine Balazovic and Enlow 100% in body and mind next season how they change rankings. So I take it all with a grain of salt. But if these kids transition well in 2023...and the organization has a very solid base in place to help them do so...imagine the top 30 with all of them

Separate side note: Should Festa be a legitimate #7 after the 5 options listed and Julien? I know he's a #13 pick in the 2021 draft, but he was DOMINATE at 2 A levels in 2022. Just when it looked like he might be running out of gas, he had one of his best starts of the year to finish the Ft Myers season. And it's not like other players didn't have really good years. But he sure teased at "awesomeness" this year.

RJA stole my initial thunder concerning Julien. Even though we talk about him quite a bit, he seems to be an under the radar player and I don't understand why. After being drafted in 2019, he didn't even make his pro debut until 2021. And all he's done is hit, get OB at an amazing clip, collect XB hits and steal bases at a high rate at 3 levels in his first two seasons. He actually looks pretty special offensively. I get his defense is a question mark, despite being used at multiple positions. It's up to him to take all that athleticism and find a spot or two where he can be at least average defensively. I think he may be destined for LF and 2B. With his length, I wouldn't think 1B would be out of the question, even as a backup option. I'm just guessing the glove and/or arm don't play at 3B. Really going to watch him closely in the AFL along with Martin. I would have made Julien a 6th choice if I wrote the OP. As to the rest listed, a fine list and perfect choices. I'm just not surprised by Wallner. I think he, is compared, unfairly, to Rooker. And I get it. They are big sluggers from quality programs that put up big numbers and were even drafted in similar spots. But they are entirely different people/prospects. Wallner will always K a bunch because he's a power hitter. But Wallner has not on had solid BB and OB numbers, but he's been trending positive in all numbers AS HE HAS BEEN RISING in the system. He still has to prove himself going forward, but I do not see another Rooker or poor version of Sano in him. He SHOULD begin 2023 in AAA but he's going to make a mark. I wasn't the biggest fan of SWR initially. And it wasn't about being traded twice or his lost 2021 with the Olympics. And it wasn't about being so young and pushed so hard. I can deal with all of that. I just kept reading 92mph and still working on his secondary stuff. And I kept wondering why he was so highly regarded if that's what his offering were! And I know he's not even close to being a finished product and the proverbial "switch" might happen any day now, but I'm begining to see what others have projected. I don't want to compare Lee to Martin, because it's not fair for a number of reasons. But Lee has been as advertised from the start. But can we just cool the jets for a moment before we state he'll be ready for MLB mid season? No matter how talented, how about we just let him finish his ROOKIE introduction to pro ball and let him spend at least a little time at AA Wichita in 2023 before we anoint him? Let him finish there, go to instructs, go through ST, produce and play well, and then see how quickly he's ready for AAA. As to the future of the left side of the infield, I'm one of those that thinks Miranda is way better at 3B than some think. I mean, rookie bouncing around and adjusting and he's somehow "bad" in a very SSS? Sorry, I don't agree. But it's not hard to picture Lee maybe being even better with Lewis taking over SS. And I do speculate Lewis will be better at SS than Lee, even though I think Lee could be at least decent there.

I wasn't able to watch his debut, but from what I read it sounds like he was pretty decent the first 3 innings he threw before the wheels came off in his 4th inning. The velocity and K numbers are excellent. Interesting that in 2019 and 2021 his hits and WHIP were very solid. In 2019 and 2022 both were back up higher than you'd like, mostly due to hits, I'd say, as his BB have never been through the roof. I think bean5302 may have stated it best on an earlier post; if the K's are there and the velocity is there and he's not plunking batters or producing extreme BB numbers, it would seem he's just losing control and allowing too many hittable pitches at times. (I'm paraphrasing a bit). He didn't turn 22 until June. Like SWR, he's very young, especially to be at AA already. While not a big kid, I do think, sometimes, the whole length/downward plane idea is, shall we say, inaccurate. Not every successful SP is/has to be 6' 1" and above. Just in recent history I'm thinking of Strotman and Berrios. Obviously there have been others. I agree he deserves a chance, which to me means holding on to him and seeing what happens in 2023 and how much improvement he makes. He'll still only be 22yo when next season starts. I'm guessing it's his "consistency" of control that is the issue. To clarify, BAD CONTROL leads to WP and BB and HB, as well as hard contact, no matter what you throw. I don't know that he's shown that. Lacking "consistent" control is having good stuff and getting guys out and producing high K numbers but leaving too many hittable pitches in the zone at times. I absolutely hate using him as an example, but think Pagan. At only 22yo, there's a real chance he finds greater consistency in his delivery and release to harness his stuff and be a quality pitcher. And while I'd probably leave him in the rotation at St Paul for now, I'm not going to project, at this time, whether he's going to remain a starter or move to the pen. Too early to say. *A young arm like his could, of course, find early success as a potential middle reliever at first, before moving to the rotation.

I'm fine with the idea and it makes a ton of sense, as long as Ober, and Winder, and Varland don't lose starts/innings as they need the innings and expose as well. But with Archer and Gray and Mahle all out, I don't think it's going to be a problem.