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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    In this era of defensive shifting it is much harder to stick at 3B with poor range.
  2. DJL44
    The only thing I like better about Sabato is his age. Encarnacion-Strand made a huge impression, especially for a 4th round pick.
  3. DJL44
    Never draft for need, especially in round one. Always draft the best player available. A good organization can make trades to balance out positions.
  4. DJL44
    Kepler is a perfectly acceptable backup CF
  5. DJL44
    Isn't it crazy that it's easier to see AAA baseball on local TV than MLB? I worry that gambling sponsorship is going to ruin the broadcast TV experience. Every situation is going to be framed in terms of betting odds (37% odds of a strikeout in this plate appearance) that only appeals to compulsive gamblers.
  6. DJL44
    The "Superstation" era was quite successful. Baseball was a regular show on television. During the day it was the Cubs on WGN and evenings were the Braves on TBS. Fan interest grew, especially in areas that don't have a local MLB team to follow. I've met Cubs fans in Idaho and Braves fans in Nevada because they watched the team every day on cable. Baseball is a soap opera - you follow your favorite characters. This is part of why Oakland and Tampa have a hard time building a fan base - they kill off the main characters in the middle of the story arc.
  7. DJL44
    I agree with this sentiment. The Twins have no reason to move fast. At this point they've missed out on the chance to choose the players they really want. They need to be opportunistic because the rest of the shortened offseason will be a chaotic mess. I think they will grab another Kenny Rogers / Lance Lynn late bargain for the rotation. Call Philly and tell them you're willing to make their problem with Didi Gregorious go away for a price. When you're shopping at the thrift store there's no reason to act immediately. Better to do some digging through the bins.
  8. DJL44
    I think Greinke would be less happy to be in MN than Ricky Nolasco
  9. DJL44
    Miguel Sano has to be moved to DH to get him out of the infield. He should be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart at 1B. On days when Donaldson needs a break benching Sano is probably the best option for the Twins. He does less damage on the bench than he does at 1B. Rooker should be trade bait for relief pitching. I hope that trade pans out better than LaMonte Wade did.
  10. DJL44
    There are plenty of pitchers in the Hall of Fame not as good as Sandy Koufax. That's not the minimum requirement.
  11. DJL44
    From the Fangraphs description of WPA: Junk stat
  12. DJL44
    Relief pitcher is NOT a position. Pitcher is a position and the best starting pitchers are far more valuable than all relief pitchers. This is recognized by general managers and reflected in wages where all but the very best relievers are paid less than a mid-tier starter. WPA is a junk stat like Game Winning RBI. If you were going to design a stat specifically to overrate relief pitchers it would look like WPA. This is evident in your list where Joe Nathan places ahead of Randy Johnson. This is clearly a complete garbage stat when it comes to evaluating who was the better pitcher. Give me first pick assembling a baseball team and I'll take Randy Johnson (or any starting pitcher on that list) over Joe Nathan every single time. Working out of the bullpen is easier. That's why mediocre starters can switch to the bullpen and have so much success. Relievers don't have to pace themselves and never see the same batter twice. Often the reliever comes in with the platoon advantage facing batters they are well equipped to get out The main reason we have relief pitchers is it upsets the batter's timing to change pitchers throughout the game. Smoltz was moved to the bullpen out of injury concerns. He instantly became the best reliever in baseball which is what you would expect if you waste the talent of a Hall of Fame starter in that role. Joe Nathan pitched well but he pitched in a role that is easier and provides less value to his team than a good 3rd starting pitcher.
  13. DJL44
    If you think this is even close I question whether you understand how baseball games are won and lost. The difference in their contribution is 1102.1 IP and 456 runs allowed. That's a pitcher with a RA9 of 3.72 in over 1000 innings! That's a successful career as a #2 starter. It's actually better than Jose Berrios' career so far. We can look at WAR - since they're pitchers it is easy to compare them directly. Pitcher WAR WAA Santana 51.1 32.8 Nathan 26.4 14.0 That includes all the imaginary bonus credit that BBREF WAR gives relievers for leverage. Joe Nathan was basically half the pitcher of Johan Santana. By WAA he's not even half. Santana was the best pitcher in MLB for a stretch of about 3 seasons (2004-2006). Joe Nathan was the best pitcher in MLB never. Relief pitchers are in the bullpen because they're not good enough to be starting pitchers. There are basically two pure relievers who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame - Hoyt Wilhelm and Mariano Rivera. Dennis Eckersley's combined career is worthy but not just his relief innings. If I'm feeling generous I could be convinced on Goose Gossage but then we need to also let in some more starting pitchers. Nobody else belongs. Elect the best starting pitchers (aka the best pitchers) from this era instead. That includes Johan Santana.
  14. DJL44
    Tony La Russa watched the guys juice up and put them in the lineup every damned day.
  15. DJL44
    Relievers are way overrepresented in Cooperstown. Tim Hudson was a better pitcher than almost all the relievers who have been inducted.
  16. DJL44
    Don't know how you feel about Dick Bremer but he fits the type of people who have been previously inducted. So out of the possibles we have Players: Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Dave Goltz?, Roy Smalley? Corey Koskie? Slim pickings here. Non-players: Dick Bremer, Terry Ryan, Dave St. Peter, Mike Radcliff
  17. DJL44
    I forgot about Mauer, assumed he was already inducted. They retired his number so that's a no-brainer.
  18. DJL44
    Terry Ryan looks like an omission
  19. DJL44
    Radke was inducted in 2009. Allison was inducted in 2003.
  20. DJL44
    He wasn't that good as a player or a broadcaster.
  21. DJL44
    I'm surprised they took all 3 in one year rather than spreading them out over the next 3 seasons. They don't produce 3 new "Twins Hall of Fame" players a year. Next? My vote is nobody until Buxton or Berrios retires. If they can't wait that long, then Dave Goltz or Brian Dozier I suppose.
  22. DJL44
    I'll add a little to this. He's estimated to get $3M in arbitration this season and probably $6M in 2023. Why would you want to turn a 2 year $9M non-guaranteed contract into a 4 year $40M guaranteed contract? That's a 2 year $31M extension for 2024-25 (ages 33-34) which would make him one of the top 5 highest paid catchers in baseball. Assuming he is still productive two seasons from now they shouldn't have any problem to signing him to a 2 year $31M extension (or more likely 2 years - $20M) in October 2024. Your proposed extension would turn Garver from a trade asset to a liability. I'm not even convinced Garver will outproduce Jeffers this season. You can't be spending $15M on your backup catcher. If his cost is likely $29M over the next 4 years if you go year-to-year then the Twins should get a discount on the extension. Garver has yet to make much - 9th round pick with one arbitration season. I think they could get a 4 year deal done for $22M. Even then I would hesitate if I were running the Twins.
  23. DJL44
    I think people are underrating Celestino. I think he's going to be at least as good of a hitter as Akil Baddoo and a better fielder. He could be an average CF. The Twins have Buxton so Celestino is mostly valuable as trade bait once he establishes himself at the major league level. Then we can have at least 100 different TwinsDaily threads about whether the Twins should trade, keep or extend Celestino.
  24. DJL44
    Hell, no
  25. DJL44
    I see Ramon Laureano as a good comp for Celestino. He could be an average MLB centerfielder.
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