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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    The track record is scary bad recently. MLB Draft: High school pitchers a bad choice in baseball - Sports Illustrated
  2. DJL44
    I agree. Canterino's injury problems have been worse than Winder's. Petty hasn't done anything yet. Duran hasn't had success above A-ball.
  3. DJL44
    He's a pitcher on the 40 man roster who will be in AAA. He's a phone call away.
  4. DJL44
    Varland is from North St. Paul. They are likely to have played travel ball against each other.
  5. DJL44
    I saw an interesting comment elsewhere. They estimated that 2/3 of the TV money is from the playoffs but only 2% of player salary costs are from playoff games. If the owners shorten the season and force the players to take prorated salaries they come out way ahead. Dropping half the season would reduce salary costs almost 50% but income by only 30%. Would anyone stop watching baseball if they started 2 weeks later and the schedule was 144 games? That's still 72 home games per team. It would be a lot harder to get 3000 hits or 500 HR with fewer games in a season but otherwise I can't think of a real downside.
  6. DJL44
    This is a useful article Putting a Dollar Value on Prospects Outside the Top 100 | FanGraphs Baseball
  7. DJL44
    The only certainty when ranking prospects is your list will be proven wrong eventually. There is always a lot of arguing about whether a player should be ranked higher than another. Really, the prospects in the 15-25 range are pretty much equal in terms of projected future value. I like how Fangraphs estimates a future value. On their latest list 13 players rated a 40 and six more were a 40+. That's 19 players who rate the same or everyone from 13-32. There are roughly 800 players rated 40 FV or higher in the minor leagues. Obviously they can't all contribute in the big leagues.
  8. DJL44
    I have a count of 21 possibles for the next 20 spots. It will be interesting to see who didn't even rate Honorable Mention.
  9. DJL44
    In this case the employees ARE the product so they have a pretty good argument.
  10. DJL44
    It is more of a giant FU to the sports networks that agreed to pay MLB billions of dollars. ESPN and Bally can't sell ads to games that don't exist. Inevitably I think that is what will settle this. I saw today that the Rays are proposing a new stadium that only seats 27,000 fans. That's 15,000 fans fewer than Tropicana and more than 7000 fewer fans than the smallest MLB park (Cleveland). With the next wave of stadiums we're going to see what happens when there aren't any cheap seats.
  11. DJL44
    That's the whole problem. They aren't spending 90% of the new revenue on players. The MLB terms are "We know the pie grew 20% but we're going to only give you a 10% increase. Shut up and be happy that we gave you any of the increase at all."
  12. DJL44
    MLB’s revenue sharing problem, and how to solve it - Bless You Boys In 2018 teams received $209M before accounting for local revenue. TV revenues have increased since then due to multi-billion dollar deals with ESPN and TBS.
  13. DJL44
    That graphic is terrific. FYI - the Twins are an "average" team. They have the resources to run a $175M payroll without blinking. They'll probably end up at $125M and pocket the rest.
  14. DJL44
    How is it a problem that the owner can't buy a brand new 100 foot yacht every year? He might have to buy a new yacht every other year instead.
  15. DJL44
    I'm more worried that baseball becomes horse racing. A sport for compulsive gamblers and the obnoxiously wealthy.
  16. DJL44
    I don't think the owners start making the big bucks until school lets out. Opening Day on May 15th would be just fine for them. If they decide to add more playoffs I would be in favor of going back to a 154 game schedule. Drop a week of regular season games so the World Series isn't in the middle of November.
  17. DJL44
    Looks like the minor leaguers will be there starting March 1. The lockout started in December - when did you purchase your trip - last year?
  18. DJL44
    Why not? Even if they are only spending 50% of their revenue sharing money on salaries they start with a $125M payroll budget. That's before figuring in ANY local revenue. Teams could spend $170-180M without blinking. The luxury tax starts at $210M. Teams are not spending at those levels because they don't need to spend like that to make the playoffs. If MLB succeeds in the negotiations it will become even easier to make the playoffs by adding 2-4 teams. Once you're in the playoffs the best you can do is increase your odds from 40% to 60% likely to win each round.
  19. DJL44
    I disagree. Once teams are in the playoffs they have at least a 40% chance to advance in each round. It's a series of coin flips to get to the World Series. Also, each team is receiving more revenue sharing dollars than the luxury tax spending limits. No team is cash limited for payroll. If the Twins want to spend like the Yankees they're already able to. Of course spending that money on payroll would limit their ability to use cash flow to finance debt to develop real estate around baseball stadiums which is the true business of major league baseball in the current era.
  20. DJL44
    I would like to understand where this myth came from that baseball lacks competitive balance and that revenue sharing is the way to solve that problem. Baseball has competitive balance - 24/30 teams made the playoffs in the last 6 seasons. It has never been easier to make the playoffs. The Royals, Indians and Rays have been in the World Series recently. Teams also have PLENTY of shared revenue. The estimates are that the Twins start with $250M in the bank before they start counting the local revenue. The shared revenue is HIGHER than the luxury tax threshold. The idea that either one of these is a problem that needs to be fixed seems detached from reality.
  21. DJL44
    MLBPA wants to increase the minimum salary to $775k and create a $100M bonus pool for pre-arb players. I'd say they're looking out for the younger players. Increased revenue sharing is not going to improve competition. For one, baseball is already one of the more competitive sports with 24 of 30 teams qualifying for the playoffs in the last 6 seasons. The teams with the longest playoff droughts are the Mariners, Phillies, Tigers and Angels. None of those teams are small market, in fact the Phillies and Angels would lose resources if there was more revenue sharing. The game's real problem is actually the lack of game action and increasing length of games. It is the most boring version of MLB I have ever experienced. The audience is shrinking because of it. MLB doesn't seem interested in expanding their fanbase. They would rather be a boutique sport for rich people and compulsive gamblers.
  22. DJL44
    Four mediocre starts in AAA and you're ready to put him in the Opening Day rotation? Let's see if he's even healthy first.
  23. DJL44
    It might be the player they take #1 overall in 2023 after they finish in last place with this rotation
  24. DJL44
    Sure, why not. Would the Astros be interested in some of our 40 man roster cuts? Stashak, Jax or Thorpe? Tyler Duffey for Odorizzi would also be fair.
  25. DJL44
    In this era of defensive shifting it is much harder to stick at 3B with poor range.
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