Cris E

Starting pitchers don't fall off a cliff at 32 like 2B. The risk with them isn't age so much as the nearly inevitable injuries.

Perhaps he's the missing veteran for the bullpen. If he hasn't pitched since he was 12 he'll need some time to get the arm in shape.

3) Kids get better and injured guys return. It's what Ryan is counting on, and in some cases it's very real. In the case of the 2016 bullpen TR might be counting on May and Meyer. He could be dreaming of Tonkin finally becoming something. He could have a spot in reserve for the injured guys riding into Spring Training on white stallions to save the day. He might still be waiting to make a move in April once he sees what he has and who ended up without a job at the end of camp. But there are enough open spots in the pen that he really should have locked one down with someone new, and I don't think anyone is defending the complete lack of action. The only thing I'll say about bullpen FA is they are incredibly erratic from year to year, they get hurt, you can usually go find a Jepson when you need one in the middle of a season, and he's had some pretty good luck fashioning a pen out of junk over the years. Here's hoping he cuts bait on more than just Duensing and some of the young herd (Pressely and Tonkin and Graham and on and on) step up and grab the innings. But I understand a lot of his other idleness. He kept Plouffe because Sano is still an unknown. He couldn't stay healthy last year as a DH, so TR wants to see him play 150 games before he dumps Trevor and Molitor finds himself playing a SS out of position for four months. He didn't go find an OF because he has a handful to sort through. He did pick up a catcher on the cheap, and while he still has Suzuki around for a year he can find out if Murphy is the guy or he still needs to shop. I have no answer for signing a DH this winter. That was weird. But he did offer Torri another year, so who knows what he's thinking about the outfield. Maybe Sano was slated to go to 3B until Hunter retired.

Well now you want it both ways: not signing FAs is bad strategy, but signing them is not strategy either. So if the bullpen is in the shape you say it is (similar to the rotation a few years ago) then signing FAs would once again be desperation instead of strategy. I'm not confident you'll be happy with anything TR does. Ryan has two things to invest/spend/allocate: dollars and playing time. When you have holes you focus on investing dollars to get guys, but when you have young players you focus on allocating playing time. There's usually a lot of grey in these cases, but when you have a Sano or a Rosario or even a Duffy you want to give them a chance to take a job before dredging up a Bourne or Stauffer to fill the spot, regardless of money. Mazeville is talking about broad philosophy, not specific players, and he's right.

I think they'll keep Rosario in LF, Arcia at DH and Vargas in AAA until either Buxton or Vargas forces their hand. Then we'll send Rosario down and bring up the one that can't be denied. The improved defense is a huge part of the recent improvement in pitching, which is a huge part of the improvement in record. I think Molitor knows that and is trying to find a polite way of getting it without knocking Arcia's glovework directly.

Hicks didn't get the nod in CF because position players are held to a different standard, he got it because they traded away all their better options and didn't leave themselves much choice. They want to be in a position to pick the kid when he's ready, not out of necessity. Mays and Meyer should earn a job just as Hicks would have if Revere were still around.

They have the middle and back of the rotation covered in depth, so the only space is in front. They need a #1 to put in front of Hughes Nolasco Gibson May and anyone else looking for innings. None of those names mentioned above make any sense in front of Hughes or between Gibson and the approaching talent like Mayer and Berrios. We've got 2-4-4-4-youth so we need someone in front or just spend on OF defense and wait for the kids.

The bias isn't in the voting for starting lineups. There are only nine or ten names there out of dozens. The serious bias is in the selection of pitching and backups. The best teams with the most wins get the most all-stars, but the causality might not be players bringing wins as much as wins making all-stars. There are two forces that multiply each other to concentrate the player selections on the best teams: the manager comes from the team that won the World Series, and the manager gets to select his guys for many secondary roles. If every team got to provide the manager at some point (similar to site selection or One Player Per Team) then this might start to even out. But team selection stays in the hands of the winning teams and they'll keep appointing their own guys as much as possible. It turns out all-stars are usually not flash in the pan meteors, so having a bunch of them is also predictive in how many games you might win next year. But the the non-stats factor in how they're selected that makes a straight wins formula hard. Second place is waayyy behind first place. TRDR version: Look through the over-acheivers and count how many WS wins there are versus the other lists.

I think if they move any bullpen guys they'll keep Swarzak (homegrown) and move Burton or Fien, probably Burton since he's got a better track record so he'd bring a better return. If Willingham is toast it'll be obvious by May and he'll be sitting in MN on August 1. At that point there's little reason to play him or trade him until Sept, when his playing time will be more valuable in the hands of the kids. My guess is that is if he bombs we'll see more Kubel, and if he bombs too by the end of June we'll see the end of the Eddie Rosario 2B Experience and the dawn of Rosario: LF. When his 50 games wrap up they'll tune up his bat and have him go stand in LF, defense or no.

I think they pick up a new SS before they sign a third pitcher, and I also think he won't be much better than the dreck we're sorting through already.