Cris E

Wow. something is wrong with Kremer, as his 2026 is way out of line with the rest of his career. So far seven starts, 36 IP, 12 HR. But if you go back two starts where he gave up 14 ER in 10 IP and he was at 4.15 ERA, but even that's bad. His Baseball Savant page shows that his 4 seamer, which he throws 21% of the time, is getting tattooed at a .897 SLG. It's only expected at about .630 xSlg, but he's thrown 128 of them and it's looking like Top Golf. Not confident this is something they fix quickly. EDIT: Just read the article. Maybe they just shelve him for a week or three and let the bicep heal? Still not loving it.

I don't know, Rogers hasn't been bad with the walks the way Funderburk has. I think limiting the free passes is sort of required to be a serious team.

Those are some funky numbers for Anderson. But hey, good news, with pitches in the 80mph range those exit velo numbers are going to stay low too. And check out those Chase numbers! Seriously, this is maybe not sustainable, but like Ober his well-executed Jamie Moyer impression might be unique enough to sneak by for a few months. However in the playoffs the bar is raised and better teams with a bye week are going to spend some time preparing for these guys and it could get rough. More room for error at 97+.

He's not the guy from a couple years ago. That velo drop makes everything more vulnerable, and in the playoffs the good teams with sharp scouting are going to sit on the cutter. He'll need a second pitch that's not a 4 seamer on a tee. The control is good and he's going to move a lot of weak lefty innings out of the end of games, but he's not the difference maker Zoll is looking for. Keep going.

I like Anderson and think he'll keep growing into a bigger role. I think Preilipp has to end up in the pen next month to manage his innings, which could solve my biggest gripe with this group: the lefties are not good enough. Travis Adams may some day end up making the same jump as Morris, but he'll need to be moved back to a one inning role where he can just attack. Those guys in the in-between multi-inning space seem to have more trouble than those in a locked down single frame role. They need one starter to replace Connor and another guy in that Tier 2 space. Those guys are out there in controllable forms (ie Angels) and picking them up would not break the bank. And if that somehow leaves us with "too much pitching" (ha!) it's an easy problem to fix over the winter.

Not your average walk off, Clemens was literally skipping down to first. (Not that there's anything wrong with that. Hit a game ending slam and you can waltz for all I care.)

We're scoring runs in weird and inconsistent ways with important guys dropping off the face of the earth for weeks at a time just as a new name catches fire. Half a dozen guys have completely remade themselves this year and it's nearly impossible to see how this keeps working. Don't get me wrong, it's been a fun ride, but so many surprises so far. As far as this goes, I'd have hoped to see a power hitting 1B on this list since we don't have any coming up. Maybe Mendez or Gonzalez heads that way by next year? Neto is not a place to spend our prospects given who is on the way. Arreaz works if the rest of your lineup is fully formed and you just need OBP, but we already have Keaschall hitting near the top without power and there aren't enough thumpers to move him around. I'd get another starter, move Prelipp to the pen to save his innings and try to get a real late innings reliever.

At this time of year I am not one to jump on odd roster states too hard, especially in a year where we've stated we're going to be active. If they bring in a couple new 25 man roster guys there will be churn and guys moving in and out, so Grey is likely just an easy one to DFA when the time comes. Plus there's a lot we don't know (eg Lewis or Lee is quietly playing through something and could use a day off?) and this lets them rest during the week of chaos. So it probably won't be a full week and thus won't matter that much. All that said, I'd have showcased Wallner or brought up a young 40 man name like Gonzalez. (Just noticed that mlb.com still lists Keaschall as a 2B. Whatever...)

Jeffers has only made about $16.8m in his career. He's 29, he's on top of his game, he's one of the best available catchers on the market this winter and he hired Scott Boras to make him some money. Even with a QO there's no way he forgoes the 5 year deal this winter for whatever he can get. And with the CBA open there's no guarantee that the QO compensation remains as lucrative as it is now (ie between rounds 1 and 2.) Between that and Caratini playing well enough during the hamate injury, I think most folks are comfortable trading him now in ways that they cannot see trading Joe Ryan. So we send him out. That leaves Joe Ryan and a couple other pieces in play that might draw a real return, like a solid hitter in Larnach or *maybe* a Josh Bell or Austin Martin. The rest will not bring back much at all unless paired with prospects, and so we should mostly consider them as roster spots to be managed (or guys we like that could benefit from a change, eg Wallner.) I keep Ryan because I really think some form of floor or minimum payroll tax is coming and he's a guy I'd prefer to pay now as family rather than try to replace on the free agent market. I send Jeffers out and I pair some others like Martin or Lewis with youth to get controllable SP and bullpen arms. I keep an eye open for a good young 1B that can thump. They can win at the deadline by making room for the incredible talent they have backing up in St Paul, by not throwing away this gift of a terrible AL in 2026, and by building on what they've learned in 2026 as they go into 2027: Keaschall is an OF, Taj is a front of rotation guy. Morris will be really good in the pen. Lee is not your SS. Lewis is not your 3B. Wallner seems done. Larnach is a good platoon OF. Not all of these are news, but they were hypotheses that needed proving this year. There's still time to write the book on Martin, Rodan, Lewis at 1B, and get a read on more kids.

Well sure, but there was no line of teams fighting to grab Bradley. The trade was people hoping to get Jax, not people hoping to get Taj, When Tampa gives up on a pitcher the league usually respects that, especially given the track record of their trades at the deadline. But the question asked was what's the difference between Bradley and Lewis, and the difference was that people still saw untapped potential in Taj and Royce has burned a bunch of his good will in stumbling thru months of mediocre hitting. I hope there's still a market for him so we can trade him or I hope he takes advantage of the hole our org has at 1b and seizes the job. But right now a reliever would be best case for any return, not even one nearly as good as Jax.

When first acquired, Taj was quoted as saying things like "I never read scouting reports" and the like. It was bizarre to say the least. But the Rays' org giving up on him was new, and the Twins more or less saying You're An Idiot and walking him through some scouting reports and showing him how that info could inform his pitch selections got him to try new things. He'd shown flashes but never the full potential, so there was clear room to grow and specific things to teach. Royce has had great stretches of play, but also some long droughts. He's taken advice, has been sent out and adjusted and changed coaches and yet he cannot stay productive for long without pooping out. He's shown his peak and then repeatedly retreated from it. And he's older at an age where the extra years show up in maturity rather than simple skills development. Lewis has enough of a track record where an exec either sees untapped potential or a 27 year old with a couple flashes of awesome. Bradley was the same, but younger with a lot less track record and fewer glimpses of the peak. The Twins picked up Taj for a reliever and there's probably someone out there that'll toss a little something our way to take Royce.

No one has suggested any of that.

This is a good post, which I largely agree with. But I don't think Lewis gets you Arreaz. SF needs a lot of stuff, but Matt Chapman is going nowhere at 3B until after 2030 and at 1B they have Devers' contract thru 2033 with young Eldridge wedged behind him. With all due respect for Lewis' breakout potential, SF is a bad trade partner for him.

I did say he might have grown into his role, because he has been less vocal about everything this year. But I stand behind the lower valuation and the challenge that he is who he is and he won't have much value until he figures out some way to avoid these flat spots every other month. If we had a real 1B option he'd be sitting right next to Wallner in St Paul.

They have the prospects and the roster holes to make moves. They have opportunity to reach the post-season at the major league level that makes it a good idea to make moves. They have an org-wide positional imbalance that makes it a good idea to make moves. None of this says anything about the nature of the moves, but Can We and Should We are both pretty obviously a Yes. I'd say Yes to anyone controllable, No to any expiring contracts, Yes to more middle infield prospect depth, Yes to arms, No to MLB corner OF, and so on, nothing fancy. In terms of names, that's Hancock or Detmers or some other starter (with years of control left), it could be a real 1B thumper, maybe a 2B that replaces what we thought we had in Keaschall, and obviously all the bullpen arms you can find.

Royce isn't valuable right now because he is scuffling at the plate again. You need him to get his hat on straight and return to hitting, but mostly it's on him, the 27 year old guy in his tenth year of professional baseball, to figure out some way of staying in the zone and not cycling up and down like this. He's got options and we can continue playing this tourist coaching game by shipping him to St Paul, but really he's got to own the dead spots in his season. Part of the problem is that Royce gets his feelings hurt a lot more than he should, when in reality he's a lot more like Josh Bell than anyone wants to admit. You look at the ten year vet Bell and you see two things: first he knows he's streaky but he just keeps hacking until the hits come, and second he doesn't complain when he keeps getting traded, never gets the huge deal, and knows that teams need more from him and the fans complain but all he can do is keep hacking and maybe be a good teammate. And that's the thing. I think Royce is coming to that realization. Who knows, maybe Bell has talked to him about it. But the fans sure haven't. They never got over the 16 grand slams in the World Series where he was awesome and the unicorns brought us all free beer and our spouses were all hot and liked us again. He's not that guy anymore, maybe never was. He can't move in the field, his legs aren't the platform they once were, he is streaky as heck, his arm is stronger but still erratic, and his effectiveness comes and goes. When he's on, sweet, but when he's not it can get tedious watching him reach for the slider away. If we can get some other team to see him like our fans do, get the overpay (eg ERod and Royce for Detmers?) But if other front offices just see a younger Josh Bell then we should keep him until we come up with a better offer at 1B (because Clemens is busy at 2B.)

Well no. He really was a hof catcher for a decade, and he really was a slightly above average 1b for another five years. In most contexts two thirds, 66%, is not a vast majority. Maybe in elections where 50% is a win, but in spaces like this where Johnny bench started over 1600 of 2000 games at catcher, or pudge Rodriguez played c 2427 of 2436 games 66% is not impressive. Mauer was legitimately one of the best catchers that ever played the game. No need to embellish or stretch his history.

A lot of the surprises are rooted in Shelton and his staff learning what's working (and what is not) and making real changes to improve things. There have been temporary demotions before, but only one or two a year. There have been minor position changes before, but nothing like the SS TO 3B, 3B TO 1B, 1B TO 2B, 2B TO OF parade we've seen so far. A lot of the disappointments are rooted in the front office not straying from its position of trash picking and looking a year downfield. While it has yielded a few gems (like Y Gomez) it's also cost a huge number of games as wildly unqualified relievers futilely tried to save leads while desperately saving every per diem dollar offered in the bigs. The following terrible pitchers finished 37 games for this team this year: Garcia, Lawrence, Lawyerson, Topa, Adams plus an injured Sands (and that doesn't even mention the awful Voth and Kent who couldn't reach the ninth.) Adams maybe gets some slack to learn, and Sands was possibly only bad because he was hurt, but the rest were on the wire for a reason. Your impressions are often driven by your expectations, and in this case the good impressions were made by those who made changes vs those who did not. Step it up Zell and Tom P.

Serious teams bail out when there's an open window to compete? I mean, the Twins have a good chance to make the playoffs without seriously affecting their development plans for 2027, so doesn't the competitive team throw down some cash and make a couple moves to see how things play out? Not to poke holes in your post or anything, but both the Rays and the Brewers do make adjustments and spend some prospect capital when they are within reach of the playoffs.

Things to consider about Joe Ryan Scarcity Front of rotation guys like Ryan are scarce, and the only ways most teams acquire them is obtaining them before they are great (via draft or trade) or signing them as free agents. Once you get one you hang on as long as you can, and we should not be letting a #1 get away just as our young roster starts coming into its own. If you're trading him away in the hopes that you can get back Joe Ryan, it's much safer/easier/more likely to happen if you just keep Joe Ryan. We've got a trainer's room full of outstanding prospects that will testify to the difficulty of reaching the position he's already in. Market Rate Joe Ryan should get paid a lot of money because he's really good and only 30. The Twins are not paying anyone after next season ($22m in 2028?) so I'd rather it be an excellent player and a guy we like than something else. If you hate paying too much for old guys then taper the dollars (40 - 40 - 30 - 30 - 20 - 20) so he's tradable, maybe make the tail years options or opt-outs, add some bonus money like CY, MVP, innings pitched, defer some if you think it'll help, and then SPEND MORE ON THE REST OF THE ROSTER. I bet he'd take a little less money if he knew there was a chance more was going to payroll and thus there was a real chance of completing in MN. Teams like LAD can do this because players trust them to spend. CBA I believe there's too much money to be lost by a protracted labor war and thus few or no games will be lost. Great. However I do believe there will be a de facto floor put in to match the de facto luxury tax ceiling, so revenue sharing will be chopped to under-payors just as taxes are piled on over-payors. Between that and ruthlessly broadening revenue sharing it's the only way to both allow owners to do whatever they want and to coerce them into doing what's right for baseball as a whole. And since Pohlads are cheap they'll be wanting to pay just enough to keep the soma flowing. The only way to reach $140m (or whatever) with this many youngsters is not sending away your stars, and thus Ryan will be getting an extension.

Am I imagining things or did they draft a lot more pitchers in the 6'3"/220+ size than the earlier willowy 6'6"/180 kids? If you look at the broken guys they are whip-thin tall guys that were supposed to grow up, fill out and power up (eg Festa, Raya, Rojas. and even the uncoordinated Hill.) But many seem to be getting hurt prior to figuring things out, so are they drafting size now so they only have to wait for command? It sort of seems to be what other orgs have been doing for years, but maybe they're learning. (Don't laugh, could happen.)

These are not necessarily in conflict. They can get a couple pieces to help this year AND trade Larnach and Jeffers and maybe Martin and a prospect to do so. If they pick up some controllable arms that can help in the pen and the kids that come up can replace some of the lost production it could be a blast. No guarantees of course, but this team is already out-performing in some ways and under-performing in others, so all you can do is place your bets and play the games. EDIT: I guess I can drop this here as well as anywhere: - Trading Jeffers is not as obvious a slam-dunk as some think. If they keep him and then he leaves via free agency they'll get a Competitive Balance pick * after the first or second round (depending on how big his contract ends up being) which is a pretty darn good prospect. (* Subject to CBA renegotiations, of course.) - Grey will pass through waivers like something through a goose. There is nothing to worry about there, and even if he leaves I care not about the fate of a tiny bat utility guy vs the roster flexibility we'd gain at this point in the season. He's a nice-to-have in terms of platoon, but his SS defense is meh and we're past the point in the season where needing a long-term SS cover is required. If it isn't Kreidler then Culpepper is ready and if it isn't him the season is burned down and we're on to prospect play.

But Mauer was coming from high school and Lackey has been in the SEC. Huge difference in their readiness when drafted, so Lackey won't take nearly as much time in the minors as Mauer did. But man, Mauer was so, so, so young.

I would also mention that any discussion of trading Jeffers start with the Rays instead of the Yankees. They have more decent relief hands under the age of 30-whatever and their prospects are better than NYY.

Keeping Jeffers probably means getting a comp pick at the end of the first round, which is likely a point in favor of moving him, I guess. I could go either way, honestly. He'll be pricey, but there will likely be a de facto salary floor in 2028, plus Lackey won't be in Mpls for at least a couple years so we do need more than Caratini between now and 2029.