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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    @Mahoning Here's the deal: players don't exist in a vacuum and there's no extra points awarded when the High Leverage light is on. You know where RISP situations come from? Some guys, any guys, getting on base ahead of the next guys. Not the right guys, not the ones that play Designated RISP Hitter, but any time the lineup gets something going then the job is keeping things rolling. There's no hitting situation where I prefer Larnach to Wallner. He doesn't set the table and he doesn't cash in when things are there. If you want to judge Wallner by one year rather than his career go ahead, but I think you;re making a mistake.
  2. Cris E
    The mystery is how he will choose to interact with each guy. People around here complained about coddling or not listening or whatever, so Shelton gets a chance to have a better relationship with some guys. It might be worse with others, but depending on each individual there could be some playing better or some feeling lost. Even when you talk about a distant, top-down control guy like Showalter who more or less treats everyone the same, you can't predict how it might affect each man in the room . Royce Lewis, for example, was making all sorts of sounds along these lines at the time of hiring, so we have to wait and see if Derek's new team connects better with him.
  3. Cris E
    Kenny Powers, yes of course, but there's something else out there. I'm still trying to decide between Doug Jones or Pete Vuckovich. I'm thinking the latter for over all vibe, but there's something about the Phillies era Jones...
  4. Cris E
    @NYCTKis playing a game here with Low leverage, so let me play the same game to look at the High. Look at the data in that first post and then consider those rate stats if you combine Low/Medium and let High stand alone. The BB and K rates are wrecked by the Medium performance, but it's hidden behind that stupendously bad BABIP. The Av/Ob/Sl numbers are still garbage, but the rate stats sparkle. There's room in there for better luck to turn a lot of this around in the ways @DocBauerwas discussing above.
  5. Cris E
    Sure, let's count the wins and pretend the team didn't sell off 40% of the MLB roster half way thru the year. That's innovative thinking that makes or low effort, content-free posts. Whee. Signing injury-prone guys to discounted contracts that protect the team from extended dead tail years is a great tool for teams without the huge revenue to lay with. Buxton's deal is fantastic. Correa's had team options for the last four years that let them out if he didn't reach 500-600PA (changed over time.) You think you can develop your way to the WS? Essentially no one has done that in years, decades even. For anyone who loves to complain about Lavine and Falvey, go look at the starting nine last year. They drafted about 7-8 guys who started a lot of games (Jeffers, Keashall, Lee, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach) and how did that work? Fine, kinda, maybe, but you upgrade from that cheap base where you can. You need to buy some talent on the open market to fill roster holes, and to reach the last games you need some luck in the injury and individual performance areas. Combine all those things and you need to rely on some guys to stay healthy to get above a certain ceiling.
  6. Cris E
    That's a bit unfair. Lee's had over 700 PA over a couple years, and Martin has been up for 440 AB over a couple years as well. Same with SWR, Bradley, Wallner and Lewis. But Keaschall's only had 49 games, Roden 55 and Mathews and Adams even fewer. There's a certain amount of deer in headlights time that everyone should get before it's time to cut bait. It has as much to do with time in the locker room as time on the field, so this should not be the end for the guys that debuted last summer. (But I'd add Outman to that Prove It list.)
  7. Cris E
    If he's going to get hurt at some point I'd rather it be now than wreck any good momentum that might develop going into the trade deadline. I prefer the team to be evaluated fairly come July, not based on a three week oblique or something fleeting like that. OTOH it wasn't required that he come up hurting, so it would have been better to just not see this at all.
  8. Cris E
    A few guesses: 1. This was almost certainly just a check to see if they could do another one year deal like Correa's first one. 2. It would almost certainly have been predicated on dealing Lopez to cover most of the new salary. 3. I am guessing they already had discussions with someone like BOS who could trade a good OF for a good starter like Lopez, if he became available.
  9. Cris E
    I assume the Astros want competent lefty bats. The Twins have none. Wallner is a fine left handed bat. I'm not sure why everyone is so down on him, but he hit better against lefties than righties last year, he's been above average his whole career, he's the only power hitter on the team behind Buxton and he's a decent bet to bounce back from his 2025 110 OPS+ towards his career 127 OPS+.
  10. Cris E
    Two answers: injuries and unexpected spring performances. Not all those guys are going to be pitching on March 31, and one or two of the fringe guys may show up and throw better than anyone is expecting today. The answers all depend on what cards are in their hand in a month.
  11. Cris E
    That's not how Intl bonus pool money works. It's not real money. There is a finite amount that can be spent on the international free agents, so teams each start with a specific amount they are allowed to spend, and they can trade that right to spend it in increments of $250k. So now the wealthy Dodgers have the right to spend $500k more on international 16 year olds and the threadbare Twins will not spend that $500k (quashing any lingering doubts on that front.)
  12. Cris E
    On top of which, plenty of folks around here blame management for dumping him in the outfield without proper preparation and causing that second knee injury. Dropping him in at short for six weeks and expecting above average things? Well let's just say if fails in any way I predict some fairly outraged hindsight from the folks that keep pushing this fantasy. BTW, Lee is expected to be a little better this year, and Fangraphs actually has him ahead of the DET, ATL and TAM shortstops. It's not great, but looking at Lee as a placeholder in light of Kim's injury in Atlanta shows that we're not nearly at the bottom of the barrel.
  13. Cris E
    I would only promote a player as he earned it, not as the team wants or needs him to rise. Plenty of guys get moved too quickly and develop bad habits trying to cut corners to stay afloat. Honestly if you rushed him up you'd only be hoping for what Lee delivered last year, and that has to balanced against the chance that a rushed Culpepper is exposed and collapses (a la sophmore year Julien, Miranda, etc) and you have to go back to Lee again with no clear timeline on Culpepper's recovery. Now if Lee were seriously injured, then you could start wailing and gnashing teeth. But people here don't seem to recall the really bad years of starting SS Pedro Florimon, Andrelton Simmons or the magic 2012 pairing of Alexi Casilla and Brian Dosier at the keystone with matching 67 OPS+ It can easily be worse, much worse.
  14. Cris E
    Professional baseball is a game of adjustments, and well-balanced players lose less of their value while dealing with adjustments the league makes to them. He's not extreme in any one skill, which makes him less vulnerable to collapse if that part of his game gets countered. Which is to say he can run and leg out grounders AND hit HR and draw a walk and his BABIP is not .400 and he fields pretty well and so on. His value is not tied to a single skill. Julien (and ERod, to an alarming extent) watched a lot of pitches and drew a lot of walks, but when the pitches got slightly better and he was still taking them his entire approach collapsed. Bad ball hitters stop seeing as many hanging breaking pitches at the AAA and MLB levels, and some fastball guys never see another heater above AA once they prove they can hit them. I hope Kaelen keeps adjusting and advancing because it's fun to watch guys figure it out and bloom (like Keaschall did last year.)
  15. Cris E
    He's not Cain. (And Abel belongs in AAA. He's got plenty to learn about composure, pitching behind, and refining his stuff. Compare his last game to his others in MLB and you'll see a gap where he's got some room for improvement.)
  16. Cris E
    After last night's Hendricks signing I find myself contemplating the Liam - Requiem rhyme. It's not strong, not at all.
  17. Cris E
    Yeah, that's a strawman. They could improve with half of those things going right, or only getting half way there. I realize you live to bash the Pohlads, but try to stay tethered, you know? We can only improve if Lee hits 20 HR? What about 17?
  18. Cris E
    SWR was pretty good last year. He began the year as our 4th starter, missed some time in the second half and ended up with a 4.04 ERA in 23 games. Even as a #3 you shouldn't complain about a 4.00 ERA. This year it looks like the various projection systems expect him to continue to grow, maybe go from 1.2 to 1.4 or 1.8 WAR. That's in line with the #4 for a lot of other teams, plus the Twins have several other youngsters like Mathews and Bradley who are also expected to be around 1.5 WAR or better, so they actually go six deep. At Fangraphs the #4/5 for the Braves are 1.2 and 1.1 WAR, to name one example, and the Rays, Brewers, Orioles and Cubs are worse off than we are.
  19. Cris E
    How much were you going to invest in SS with Culpepper potentially a couple months away? Lee is only meh, not terrible, so let him play until the future arrives.
  20. Cris E
    Kind of predictable, his version of the "Best shape of his life" story.
  21. Cris E
    I wouldn't trade these guys until it's clear this team can't win. That means another lost Lewis season and Lee's continued mediocrity and Culpepper not being ready and a few trips to the IL for some pitchers and a lot of inconsistency from the kids. It does not mean being six games on out May 20, or one guy not hitting. This is the season for testing and measuring, and it'll take some patience.
  22. Cris E
    These articles should always include a jumping off point describing the state of the team last fall, what questions the organization had to answer, as well as any known plans that were already in motion. It would reveal biases, assumptions and fill in any missed items to give a more complete view of the thinking as ST opens. In this case that would have included a lot more discussion about which kids were expected to arrive in time for 2026, which ones were not expected to survive the winter on the roster, and thus which holes would need to really be filled (eg 1B) versus those that just needed to be held until a prospect arrived to take it (eg SS or OF.) Specifically, they did not fill the bullpen vacancies to the extent they needed to. They may believe that a few converted starters will fill the void and that a couple months of OTJ training will have to suffice, but if that's the case then most of the rest of the world has doubts. They did fill in most holes on the field without blocking anyone, but they made no moves toward improvement. The team wasn't so good that a roll-over will be sufficient to win the ALC in 2026, but this idea that they are a 70 win team is just as false. A month ago DET and KC were a Skubal or Witt injury away from 80 wins, which meant that the division was pretty wide open. DET has now added enough pitching depth to really cement their chances (to the extent that anyone can in Feb.) But it's easier to see 80 wins from this lineup than 70, so I'll watch the kids play and wait to se how things go.
  23. Cris E
    With stuff like this and a clear record of not being particularly coachable he's a guy that needs another shot at the rotation in a new org. The shock of being sent away while young and controllable, the new voices in MN, and possibly a different thinking on how to maximize a fastball like his are all reasons to take another run at it. Going to the bullpen should be a move towards health or to focus a guy's pitch selection down to the good ones, not a punishment or resignation that things aren't working. Lots of guys resist listening when they've been very successful very young, and he's a prime example. Even by the end of last year they'd made some headway, so I expect that this could be a good year for Taj. I'm excited to see how he does.
  24. Cris E
    Well he has been healthier over the past four years...
  25. Cris E
    I posted this on MTR, but is he now the backup for Lewis? Who was the next 3B in line otherwise, Clemens? It is worth pointing out that almost all the guys who played 3B in St Paul last year are out of the organization, and only Lee is still around from those who played there in Mpls in 2025. I hadn't noticed it until this signing, but it seems wild how there's no one left from last year.
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