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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    That's a bit unfair. Lee's had over 700 PA over a couple years, and Martin has been up for 440 AB over a couple years as well. Same with SWR, Bradley, Wallner and Lewis. But Keaschall's only had 49 games, Roden 55 and Mathews and Adams even fewer. There's a certain amount of deer in headlights time that everyone should get before it's time to cut bait. It has as much to do with time in the locker room as time on the field, so this should not be the end for the guys that debuted last summer. (But I'd add Outman to that Prove It list.)
  2. Cris E
    If he's going to get hurt at some point I'd rather it be now than wreck any good momentum that might develop going into the trade deadline. I prefer the team to be evaluated fairly come July, not based on a three week oblique or something fleeting like that. OTOH it wasn't required that he come up hurting, so it would have been better to just not see this at all.
  3. Cris E
    A few guesses: 1. This was almost certainly just a check to see if they could do another one year deal like Correa's first one. 2. It would almost certainly have been predicated on dealing Lopez to cover most of the new salary. 3. I am guessing they already had discussions with someone like BOS who could trade a good OF for a good starter like Lopez, if he became available.
  4. Cris E
    I assume the Astros want competent lefty bats. The Twins have none. Wallner is a fine left handed bat. I'm not sure why everyone is so down on him, but he hit better against lefties than righties last year, he's been above average his whole career, he's the only power hitter on the team behind Buxton and he's a decent bet to bounce back from his 2025 110 OPS+ towards his career 127 OPS+.
  5. Cris E
    Two answers: injuries and unexpected spring performances. Not all those guys are going to be pitching on March 31, and one or two of the fringe guys may show up and throw better than anyone is expecting today. The answers all depend on what cards are in their hand in a month.
  6. Cris E
    That's not how Intl bonus pool money works. It's not real money. There is a finite amount that can be spent on the international free agents, so teams each start with a specific amount they are allowed to spend, and they can trade that right to spend it in increments of $250k. So now the wealthy Dodgers have the right to spend $500k more on international 16 year olds and the threadbare Twins will not spend that $500k (quashing any lingering doubts on that front.)
  7. Cris E
    On top of which, plenty of folks around here blame management for dumping him in the outfield without proper preparation and causing that second knee injury. Dropping him in at short for six weeks and expecting above average things? Well let's just say if fails in any way I predict some fairly outraged hindsight from the folks that keep pushing this fantasy. BTW, Lee is expected to be a little better this year, and Fangraphs actually has him ahead of the DET, ATL and TAM shortstops. It's not great, but looking at Lee as a placeholder in light of Kim's injury in Atlanta shows that we're not nearly at the bottom of the barrel.
  8. Cris E
    I would only promote a player as he earned it, not as the team wants or needs him to rise. Plenty of guys get moved too quickly and develop bad habits trying to cut corners to stay afloat. Honestly if you rushed him up you'd only be hoping for what Lee delivered last year, and that has to balanced against the chance that a rushed Culpepper is exposed and collapses (a la sophmore year Julien, Miranda, etc) and you have to go back to Lee again with no clear timeline on Culpepper's recovery. Now if Lee were seriously injured, then you could start wailing and gnashing teeth. But people here don't seem to recall the really bad years of starting SS Pedro Florimon, Andrelton Simmons or the magic 2012 pairing of Alexi Casilla and Brian Dosier at the keystone with matching 67 OPS+ It can easily be worse, much worse.
  9. Cris E
    Professional baseball is a game of adjustments, and well-balanced players lose less of their value while dealing with adjustments the league makes to them. He's not extreme in any one skill, which makes him less vulnerable to collapse if that part of his game gets countered. Which is to say he can run and leg out grounders AND hit HR and draw a walk and his BABIP is not .400 and he fields pretty well and so on. His value is not tied to a single skill. Julien (and ERod, to an alarming extent) watched a lot of pitches and drew a lot of walks, but when the pitches got slightly better and he was still taking them his entire approach collapsed. Bad ball hitters stop seeing as many hanging breaking pitches at the AAA and MLB levels, and some fastball guys never see another heater above AA once they prove they can hit them. I hope Kaelen keeps adjusting and advancing because it's fun to watch guys figure it out and bloom (like Keaschall did last year.)
  10. Cris E
    He's not Cain. (And Abel belongs in AAA. He's got plenty to learn about composure, pitching behind, and refining his stuff. Compare his last game to his others in MLB and you'll see a gap where he's got some room for improvement.)
  11. Cris E
    After last night's Hendricks signing I find myself contemplating the Liam - Requiem rhyme. It's not strong, not at all.
  12. Cris E
    Yeah, that's a strawman. They could improve with half of those things going right, or only getting half way there. I realize you live to bash the Pohlads, but try to stay tethered, you know? We can only improve if Lee hits 20 HR? What about 17?
  13. Cris E
    SWR was pretty good last year. He began the year as our 4th starter, missed some time in the second half and ended up with a 4.04 ERA in 23 games. Even as a #3 you shouldn't complain about a 4.00 ERA. This year it looks like the various projection systems expect him to continue to grow, maybe go from 1.2 to 1.4 or 1.8 WAR. That's in line with the #4 for a lot of other teams, plus the Twins have several other youngsters like Mathews and Bradley who are also expected to be around 1.5 WAR or better, so they actually go six deep. At Fangraphs the #4/5 for the Braves are 1.2 and 1.1 WAR, to name one example, and the Rays, Brewers, Orioles and Cubs are worse off than we are.
  14. Cris E
    How much were you going to invest in SS with Culpepper potentially a couple months away? Lee is only meh, not terrible, so let him play until the future arrives.
  15. Cris E
    Kind of predictable, his version of the "Best shape of his life" story.
  16. Cris E
    I wouldn't trade these guys until it's clear this team can't win. That means another lost Lewis season and Lee's continued mediocrity and Culpepper not being ready and a few trips to the IL for some pitchers and a lot of inconsistency from the kids. It does not mean being six games on out May 20, or one guy not hitting. This is the season for testing and measuring, and it'll take some patience.
  17. Cris E
    These articles should always include a jumping off point describing the state of the team last fall, what questions the organization had to answer, as well as any known plans that were already in motion. It would reveal biases, assumptions and fill in any missed items to give a more complete view of the thinking as ST opens. In this case that would have included a lot more discussion about which kids were expected to arrive in time for 2026, which ones were not expected to survive the winter on the roster, and thus which holes would need to really be filled (eg 1B) versus those that just needed to be held until a prospect arrived to take it (eg SS or OF.) Specifically, they did not fill the bullpen vacancies to the extent they needed to. They may believe that a few converted starters will fill the void and that a couple months of OTJ training will have to suffice, but if that's the case then most of the rest of the world has doubts. They did fill in most holes on the field without blocking anyone, but they made no moves toward improvement. The team wasn't so good that a roll-over will be sufficient to win the ALC in 2026, but this idea that they are a 70 win team is just as false. A month ago DET and KC were a Skubal or Witt injury away from 80 wins, which meant that the division was pretty wide open. DET has now added enough pitching depth to really cement their chances (to the extent that anyone can in Feb.) But it's easier to see 80 wins from this lineup than 70, so I'll watch the kids play and wait to se how things go.
  18. Cris E
    With stuff like this and a clear record of not being particularly coachable he's a guy that needs another shot at the rotation in a new org. The shock of being sent away while young and controllable, the new voices in MN, and possibly a different thinking on how to maximize a fastball like his are all reasons to take another run at it. Going to the bullpen should be a move towards health or to focus a guy's pitch selection down to the good ones, not a punishment or resignation that things aren't working. Lots of guys resist listening when they've been very successful very young, and he's a prime example. Even by the end of last year they'd made some headway, so I expect that this could be a good year for Taj. I'm excited to see how he does.
  19. Cris E
    Well he has been healthier over the past four years...
  20. Cris E
    I posted this on MTR, but is he now the backup for Lewis? Who was the next 3B in line otherwise, Clemens? It is worth pointing out that almost all the guys who played 3B in St Paul last year are out of the organization, and only Lee is still around from those who played there in Mpls in 2025. I hadn't noticed it until this signing, but it seems wild how there's no one left from last year.
  21. Cris E
    I'd let Outman hang around in St Paul, backing up the real prospects who are readying themselves for a move across the river. He was a decent player not that long ago, and if he can figure things out he's be a useful Bader-like part to have around. He just can't get in the way of anyone who is still moving upward through the org.
  22. Cris E
    A lot of comments on how the prospects are coming and this guy is just getting in their way, possibly even if he's playing well. Others complaining that the team keeps selling hype. Just got to point out that the team is not selling the hype, which is coming from bored bloggers. The kids will be along when they're ready, which is not at all likely to happen three abreast in 2026; odds are that at least one will not be kicking down the door to get to Target Field on Sept 1. And I'm just warning you now, once they have three days in the majors and are not prospects anymore you're going to hate Gabby's defense and ERod's time on the IL at least as much as Wallner's glove and Lewis/Buxton injury time. That said, this is about Roden, who I kind of like and hope he has a great spring. If he's redundant and hitting .400 in March he can be moved for whatever folks were hoping Larnach would bring back. Or he can stay and fill in for the inevitable injuries while the kids actually get established in St Paul.
  23. Cris E
    There is a difference, but if you're a bad catcher that infield experience may not be an advantage if bad hands is skill set that is getting you moved off catcher. OTOH there are plenty of OF that failed moving to 1B, famously including outstanding fielder Joe DiMaggio. In any event, "It's incredibly hard" may be an over-statement in general, but the move is not trivial.
  24. Cris E
    No. If you're going to suddenly accept BA's ridiculous over-the-top standard as the benchmark then Abrams cannot be on your radar. He's athletic, he can hit, but he's not a good defensive SS. But the real discussion is what Baseball America is looking for. “I looked at the best plays for every shortstop in our top-100 and then the guys within the range of the top-100... We’re looking at what guy can make the plays that most shortstops can’t make." So the guys in the Top 100 are the standard? That's what makes a SS, or what makes a top SS? I get that Lee is not a good SS, but there are plenty of guys with good hands, decent range and enough arm playing a ton of innings. Jeter was not a great SS but it didn't hurt the Yankees too much. Cal Ripkin did what he did based on smart positioning and a quick release, but BA would not have put him at SS? Come on guys, be real. Look through your top guys and the thing that ties them together is not beautiful range and making plays that most others couldn't make, it's hitting. That's doubly so in the majors, but even in the minors the bats get you into the lists and into the big leagues. They know better than this, and stuff they say in the videos is for clicks, and not what they use to do rankings.
  25. Cris E
    One thing I thought the Twins could have done earlier in the winter was taking on Christian Walker's salary from Houston to save them from Luxury Tax problems. They are within $10m of heavy costs for additional spending and were looking at losing several important parts. Getting him off their books would have allowed them to make other moves free of addition taxes, and anything spent would have been worth more than the actual dollars needed to get rid of him. That is, removing his $20m per year in exchange for Larnach in December, for example, nets $15m savings but then they could have put in a bid for someone like Valdez at $33m without luxury tax, whereas $33m plus 50% is a very different proposition. They could have sent along talent to encourage MN to eat the $15m, or brought in a third team to help defray costs. (EG Walker to MN, Larnach to HOU, and a third party with cash, no luxury tax concerns and imagination sends money to MN and gets prospects from HOU and possibly MN.) Alas, we weren't spending in December, Houston had other plans for recovering from their talent losses, and then we signed Bell. But I think there was a clever way to make this work.
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