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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    The Twins didn't pick these guys out of the phone book, they were chosen because of their years of remaining control. Expect one or two to get deals (Mahle and/or Lopez depending on health and performance) and then an appraisal of how the younger kids are coming along will dictate how hard they go after Grey and Meada. Sonny has been very effective for a long time and there's no guarantee that our youth will end up any better or healthier than he is. After after 2022 Maeda would have to come pretty cheap to justify creating another Bunde/Archer shaped spot in the rotation. But I don't think he's going to be durable or efficient enough to be a regular six inning guy so I expect us to have better options when it comes time to review his deal.
  2. Cris E
    I thought the New Look was replacing half our roster with Cincinnati Reds and buying up all the remaindered Miami Marlins "M" gear.
  3. Cris E
    "Home runs and walks are not taking what the game is giving. You need to see the new opportunities and hit through the infield, steal a base, score on a weak fly ball to right. Play smart, not analytical." - Rocco, maybe.
  4. Cris E
    I'm a reader, not a watcher. If the info is important put it in the description of the vid, but sound is not compatible with work.
  5. Cris E
    The Twins prefer hitters. They mostly figure they'll figure out the defense later, but if a guy can't hit he can't play. Also, if a bat-first guy like Jeter can win a shoebox full of rings as a SS then they can find a way to make their best prospects fit into a defense built around Correa and Buxton.
  6. Cris E
    Larnach is more than just a fringe guy. He was a top 100 prospect for a couple years after being chosen #20 overall in the 2018 draft. His numbers might be fringe now but he's a young guy who lost a key year of development to covid and then had the last two torn up by injury. We can still expect him to develop more given his shortened seasons since 2019. Last spring he was hitting .299/.375/.515 at the end of May when he got hurt, which is a sign that he's probably going to hit better than a utility infielder.
  7. Cris E
    Polanco has real MLB home run power, and precious few of the kids are expected to bring that any time soon. I expect him to be starting at 2b the rest of this season and next year when camp opens too. They can try to seize the job then, but this lineup isn't the 2019 squad and you do want a couple guys that can jog the bases 20-25 times a year. Right now Buxton will hit when he plays, Correa and Miranda are both in that 20 HR area, and then it gets dicey. Polanco has a huge role in this offense and won't be traded away lightly.
  8. Cris E
    Belt and suspenders. This move means little in and of itself, just that the front office doesn't want its underwear hanging out in public like past year. When you have a bunch of AA guys that need to prove themselves you don't just hand them jobs. You block them with orange cones and make them take the jobs, and if they can't beat out Donovan Solano or Kyle Farmer then they belong in AA or AAA.
  9. Cris E
    This team is all about health. Last season showed what the worst case scenario would look like, so in response they got a new trainer, shored up the depth, traded a hot piece of Batting Champ for a big improvement in the rotation, and let the bullpen ride. Odds are we can't have lightening strike that often in the same locker room two years in a row, so we should get some regression to norms for some of these guys. But I've read the Book of Job, so I'm only hoping for a division crown, nothing more.
  10. Cris E
    The Twins knew exactly what they were getting from San Diego in early 2022. At that time the Padres 2021 Manager Jayce Tingler was Rocco's new bench coach and he was part of the whole transaction.
  11. Cris E
    Has he always pulled this much, or was some of this related to his injuries, an attempt to drive the ball more and not have to run as much with the bum leg?
  12. Cris E
    He totally got those runners at first. Both of 'em. (I love spring training optimism.)
  13. Cris E
    Larnach
  14. Cris E
    Lewis is a very good ballplayer and I like his future better than most, including Julien who I expect to be another Arraez in 2025. I believe Lewis will be the fill-in 2B/SS for any longer Polanco/Correa outages we may suffer over the next few years, and his permanent position is probably as Polanco's heir at 2b. That means he has to fill a couple years with mixed duty around the field. I'm OK with that I guess, because if he's made of glass he'll break no matter where he plays. As an aside, I think Gordon's got some serious roster space problems as soon as Royce is ready to come across the river. He'll be the first one pushed out until some injury gives him a chance to get back in. And he'll be pushed from that spot if Lee is ready and there's a long-term injury hole to fill. Wallner's bat erupting in April and May could also make him uncomfortable. I bet he's traded before Kepler.
  15. Cris E
    Until they are free to put guys on the 60 Day, adding a new face will cost passing someone they have now through waivers. That's unlikely to work, so Hand or Moore or my glorious comeback can wait until rosters are mobile again.
  16. Cris E
    Gallo and Gordon and Koskie and my mom are all very fleeting, short-term answers to filling in Miranda's position this year. It should go Miranda backed up by Farmer and then to AAA guys for anything longer than 2-3 days. Lee should spend the spring at SS and 3B to cover the only two cases that matter: Correa gets hurt or Correa stays healthy. If Correa goes down then Farmer gets the job short-term until Lee proves he can carry it long-term. If Correa stays healthy for the next three years then Lee moves to 3B. Lewis should spend the year at SS and 2B, and Martin should be at 2B and LF. Julien should be down at AA playing 1b, lf, dh and maybe some other infield spots. Discussing Gallo or Gordon at 3B is third catcher country.
  17. Cris E
    If you're just talking about an occasional appearance then facing a right handed pitcher will not kill Farmer any more than it would Miranda. I mean giving away a game's worth of defense by putting Gordon out there isn't much different than giving away four ABs by going with Farmer. If someone gets hurt mid-game then you deal with that, but you don't pretend Gordon needs to learn 3B any more that you insists that Farmer catch some games. You have two good options and Lee is on their heels. Gordon is not a serious option for any infield play.
  18. Cris E
    His numbers indicate he'll be what Pagan was last April: a gaudy ERA with terrible supporting numbers hidden behind it. At some point the runs will start coming and people will start complaining about him like they do about Pagan. Does no one remember Joe Smith? 0.00 April ERA, 3.24 in May, 5 GDP induced in only 16 innings. Fun! And then he was bad and then he was gone. You're staking a lot on Falvine signing a guy who gets results without supporting skills and then cutting bait when it fails. I don't see them signing him to a major league deal. Maybe a two-way if he makes the club in April, but they aren't cutting anyone they care about to make room for him. They've done it and it doesn't really work.
  19. Cris E
    Maeda will probably start, but he should probably be on the Archer plan for the first month or so until he builds his arm back up. I'm not sure his contract factors in all that much since we didn't sign him to it, but as a reliever he might well become some combination of disappointed, cranky, mad at not being allowed to pursue his bonus metrics. No, I think he'll get a chance to recreate 2020 and Winder or Ober will end up in the pen to be his long man. (I'd prefer Ober get a full starting job in St Paul until needed.)
  20. Cris E
    Many notes: - Chafin signed this week, so he won't come here. More broadly, Falvey has said we've not looking for more arms in the pen until we sort what we have. There are a lot of guys who are very close to blowing this league up. Duran was the real deal all year, but closer Lopez put up a great half year, the new Lopez held it together for a year, Mahle was ready to shake off his old home park, and there are a million young strong arms behind them. The pen should be good. - Our 40 man is very full and we're not going to do anything until we get some guys moved to the 60 day DL. But even then I'm not sure we'll do much until we see how all the injured come back from their winter work. - And speaking of the returning injured: Mahle, Maeda, Lopez, Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Correa, Polanco are all out to prove their health after last year. And they have to be followed by Lewis and Paddack when they are ready. - As if that isn't enough uncertainty we have to sort the kids and see who is ready and where they can play. There's an army coming and spring training may just be about measuring what to expect by June 15. The only position battles are 1b, lf and dh and the same guys are jostling for the spots. We might not see a set lineup just to fit most of them in on a semi-regular basis.
  21. Cris E
    Mahle is better than his raw career numbers because his home park was CIN, a complete launching pad. He was a different guy there versus the road: "In the past three seasons, when Mahle started entering his peak at age-25, he’s pitched 156.2 innings on the road. He owns a 2.93 ERA over that time, 12th among 84 qualifying pitchers." https://zonecoverage.com/2022/mn-twins-news/twins-are-betting-on-a-literal-change-of-scenery-to-unlock-mahle/ There's more in that article, especially digging into his HR rate dropping by half when not pitching at Great America. Former Red Sonny Grey makes an appearance too. I am optimistic about Mahle in 2023.
  22. Cris E
    Pagan has some sketchy command. On the one hand he tends to walk guys, but on the other he gets strikeouts, but on the other he gives up home runs. The thing is he was erratic all season with several good months and several poor ones, and it wasn't a clean first half second half thing either: his monthly ERA went 3.18, 1.59, 11.42, 3.48, 5.40 and 2.25. The 84 K were nice, but the killer was 12 HR and 26 BB in 63 IP. There were eleven games last year where Emilio gave up multiple runs: five were in June (including four games in eight days!) and four times in August (including a couple against the Dodgers.) He'd been getting far better results than he deserved going into those June Guardians games so it wasn't any surprise that the roof fell in, but he was quite a bit cleaner as the season went on. Overall he pitched more against CLE than anyone else and had terrible results: 10 games (of 59) yielding 11 ER (of 31) in 10 IP (of 63), which was more than unfortunate. Maybe next year they hold him out of some of those appearances? We'll see.
  23. Cris E
    He should focus on 1b where he has the best chance to succeed and he competes less at 2b/3b/ss with the guys that have a far better chance of succeeding there. If you give him a few reps in LF too it would be fine. He's going to hit so he just needs a place to stand in the other half of the inning.
  24. Cris E
    The shift rules changed but we just don't know how teams are going to react to them until they play some games. For teams that still believe in the shift you may see middle infielders standing right at the enter line and sliding over to a shifted spot as soon as the pitch is thrown, or outfielders could be moved around or something. Some teams may just turn back the clock ten years and play straight up, and the world will be watching their numbers as well. It probably won't matter much as most infielders are really good at their jobs and baseball was just fine the way it was played for 120 years.
  25. Cris E
    There are a lot of reasons to discount the defensive numbers a bit from last year, mostly the biblical injury plague, and there are more reasons to wonder how different 2023 will be that make projecting those numbers even harder. The shift is reduced, base stealing may return, health may return and everyone is a year older for good (Miranda) or ill (Polanco, Correa.) I expect our infield defense will be average. Correa will be quite good again, Miranda will be OK, not horrible, Polanco will be around average and Kirilloff will be pretty good. I think they'll hit enough to make it work and it should be a good year.
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