Cris E

Glad to see some life from the offense, but it might be time for Griffin to have an "injury" vacation to St Paul and rest that arm.

They may have two things in mind: 1. He's not coming up for a bunch of months while he works on his hitting at AAA so he may as well play his primary position. And there's no guarantee that 2B or 3B will be open when he's ready either, so don't try timing the market and just stick to basic development and don't distract him with potentially irrelevant duties. 2. One bad slide and we could have a huge opening at SS. Correa has a long injury history and a scary looking ankle so the future could be closer than any of us want to admit and having Lee fully ready would look really smart on that dark day.

I gotta admit, I thought he was the guy who went to Florida and was just called up and sent down. Yup, just went and checked, and between the hair, glasses and meh results I see how I got him confused with Devin Smeltzer. Mea culpa Randy, keep grinding. Good things can happen when you identify and chase the big dreams.

But that's how WS winners work these days: good players play well, some unexpected guy pulls a Lemke and hits .400 (or a Soler and hits a bunch of HR) and the pen steps up huge. The Twins have pieces that have under-performed this season, but no one would be shocked if vets like Correa, Buxton, Polanco played well in the bright lights. It's mostly a health thing for many of the guys playing poorly to date. You can see how they could get healthy if Rocco can rest some guys as the rest of the division falls away. EDIT: Just want to step back and point out that this is plausible without addressing the probability of it. There is a gap there, to say the least.

Keuchel was working outside the zone, mostly low, with a 77 MPH change working off a 86 mph fastball/slider. You know what that looks like to MLB hitters and video guys? It looks like walks and opportunities. If you seem unconvinced go look at this work last August where he threw a 2.31 ERA out there in Round Rock before getting incinerated in the bigs to the tune of a 9+ ERA.

The strength has been starting pitching, the weakness has been some combination of injury and under-performance on offense. They are inter-related in many ways, but if the team performed as expected, even to within 90% of estimates, then things would be immensely different. What would things look like with decent seasons from Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Theilbar, Mahle, Alcala, Miranda, Lewis? (And that's before accepting this Kepler as the real Kepler and deciding what should have been expected from Gallo.) SO the plan wasn't too bad last spring: they had Farmer and Taylor in place in case the big two got hurt. They had depth for the starting pitching. Gallo was there in case the kids didn't develop at 1B or LF. They picked up one of the top catcher free agents. There was some doubt in the pen, but they had a lot of youngsters around to train up and they kept digging around, eventually adding the very effective Stewart (and Blogosvic is emerging as well.) So the things to address at the deadline were mostly holes where there were injuries and places where guys were not performing for one reason or another. The pen is still short and should have been shored up. The ineffective guys can still be replaced by internal options at the corner OF spots and by returning injured players within the coming week or two. You might have seen a much different approach to the deadline if it happened two weeks later when we knew how well Theilbar or Stewart or Lewis or Polanco would return. But as of this week they don't know much more than Stewart's fate so they're making guesses that things will be OK for those guys. (I'm still cranky about not adding to the pen though.)

I'll follow up on that Brewers remark with one more point: fans are rightfully proud of the good reputation the Twins organization has had over the years, especially regarding how they treat their people. Moving Lopez to be closer to his son, for example, is something that didn't necessarily benefit the org that much but made a big difference to his family. Last year Brewers GM David Stearns made kind of a meh trade to send Josh Hader to San Diego, which mostly saved some money, picked up a couple pretty good prospects and a couple other relievers that weren't nearly as good as Hader. But Hader's kid was not well, he'd been pitching distracted and then he was sent to the West Coast. The team had been 7-2 coming out of the all-star break and starting the day of the trade they went 1-5 against CIN and PIT, two teams that ended the year with 62-100 records. They didn't win the division and they only saved a few million bucks. It was a somewhat flawed team that probably didn't finish as well as it could have and part of that could have been trying to save a few bucks or grab some resources for the future at the expense of the present. Didn't work all that well.

If you're just playing in GM mode then that makes some sense, but here in real life there are other considerations, like actually playing the games. In real life things like winning games, winning the division, reaching the playoffs, have monetary value, and the primary goal of a MLB team in real life is not winning the WS, it's making money. If you sell every year that you don't think you can make the LCS you'll diminish fan interest by telling everyone Don't Bother, This Isn't The Year. There are also real concerns about wrecking the lockerroom like the Brewers did last year when they dealt Josh Hader. You can and should be free to deal who you want, but making deals for deals' sake is not without consequence. On The Other Hand if you think you want to win some games, win a division and try to make some waves in the playoffs then you have to do basic roster maintenance. The money's not free, you have to do your part. In this case you have a weak pen and some empty uniforms running around not providing value. I'm going to be charitable and assume Gallo is only here because Kirrillof is out, but I have no idea why they didn't replace Stewart. That was not good work.

I only wonder when they found out Stewart was broken. By releasing that news 30 minutes after the deadline it sort of looks like they suppressed it to make the job of picking up a reliever easier, but then they didn't do it even though several decent options were moved quite late in the day for not much. Even if Falvey wanted to walk into that clubhouse tonight and tell them he stood firm because he believed in them he should have filled that hole. They needed one more solid arm out there and the guy they need isn't on the roster.

He left, and good luck to him. But let's face it, 6 starts of 1.13 ERA should get you more than 32 IP. If he was really pitching that well he should have been able to go deeper than 6 innings at least once. After the bad smells that Archer and Bundy left in the clubhouse last season burning down the bullpen he won't get a chance in MN. Flavine did learn something from 2022.

My big complaint for the trade season was around the bullpen. They didn't need much, but they needed something. Releasing the Stewert news at Deadline + 30 minutes means they held it back to save their negotiating position while trying to trade for a reliever. Once it didn't come together they let the world know how screwed we are in the pen. I wonder when they found out about the setback, and how serious it really is. I wrote earlier this afternoon that I thought he'd been throwing with his heart all year and he finally realized he'd run off the edge of the cliff and broke down. If they spent two days knowing he wasn't coming back and still couldn't get any of the guys out there that's just bad work. I like Jordan Blasogzcwizczz's work out of the pen as well as the next guy, but there were numerous and better options that moved very late today for very little.

He won't be for long. In the time he should have been fighting for a spot in the utility OF, pinch runner, sparkplug guy role he was sitting at home wearing a boot watching Solano and Castro eat his lunch. He's not that good and his window was not open long and an injury screwed him. Bad luck, on to the next org with less utility depth. Anyway, darn shame about just barely missing on that Verlander deal. But at least Falvine can stop working on that one now and get back to the problems in the pen. (Yes I am being sarcastic. It shouldn't need to be said.)

The AL Central is going to be won or lost by the Twins, and nothing CLE does is going to change that. Either we get it together and walk away or we don't, but the teams behind us are even further from real contention and are even less likely than the Twins to mortgage their futures for a 2023 Wildcard Play In Game commemorative second place trivet.

So much of this comes down to what we're going to get from our injured guys, and that's just not known to us (and maybe the FO as well.) Stewart is the sort of arm we're looking for, Lewis is the kind of bat we're looking for, Theilbar is that lefty, Buxton is that CF, and so on. My guesses: Theilbar is back but I expect him to get hurt at least one more time this season but be pretty effective when he's available. Stewert will return and stay healthy but I'm not certain if he'll stay as effective. Part of my somehow feels he was just throwing his heart out and it took him that long to realize he'd run off the edge of the cliff before falling to the DL. Lewis will come back and stay healthy. I hope. A lot rides on this one, TBH. In the end they'll grab a RH cOF and a reliever based on what they expect from these guys so I look for a big Mets splash with Canha or Pham and that other reliever I can;t remember or posssibly a Cards package for Carlson in CF.

There is no way he is retiring after this season. No chance. He's going to get a 3-4 year deal worth $15-20m per season, he was in the all star game a couple weeks ago, he's having a fine year and he's (knock on wood) been healthy for quite a while. Let it go, it was an off-hand remark that's never been mentioned a second time.

Castro is a utility guy because he CAN make some great plays but he also makes some serious bonehead moves, and underlying this inconsistency his average performance is not that good. He may improve, he's better than Gordon, but right now he's not a starter on a good team.

I wonder what Corey really thought about Castro's choice there.

Witt is legit and should be extended yesterday. Not sure what the Royals are waiting for.

Well it's at least becoming clearer what the deadline need is.

Tired of Moran. Need a leftie to cover for Theilbar while Jovani goes down and learns to pitch.

The other thing to consider is that managers don't get to choose pitchers from a clean slate each game. They have to play the guys that are available, balancing game situations against players' health and effectiveness on a daily basis. You don't think Rocco and Maki know this stuff? They want to put him in with no one on to try to get the best Pagan every time out, but sometimes things go badly wrong. He got tossed in to clean up after Duran in BAL, he got jammed in after Moran's explosion to stop the bleeding, and results varied. Gladden is right: some of you guys just aren't rational when it comes to Pagan. Jax has two blown saves this week fer crying out loud. Accept the volatile nature of relievers and be at peace. Emilio is not the problem you're making him out to be.

Buxton should go to the IL when Polanco comes up. Polanco's defense has looked terrible all year so you can flip a coin to see which of him or Julien gets to DH. I think Kepler would be a great fit for the Yankees. He's a pro that can handle the big city, he can play CF while Bader is out and RF while Judge recovers, the short RF fence will help him and it's the end of his deal so they aren't on the hook for much. I think Canha would help our LF mix quite a bit but I don't want to pay much for him. See what NYM are looking for. I'd trade Miranda for a 3B where someone wants to go younger and cheaper. For example if Boston decides to bail on 2023 he could be part of a Turner deal (but I expect them to hang in way past the point of common sense and not trade anyone.) WAS could be moving rental Jeimer Candelario as well. I'd trade Maeda for someone who can hit, and maybe throw in a Pagan if someone values him highly. He's only had a couple bad games so you know he has some value to an org that believes in the magic of their pitching coach. I don't think Gordon will play for the Twins again; there's just too much competition. Paddack won't be an issue until September.

Totally agree with the family angle, especially right after getting to spend a few days with his boys at the All-Star game. He's got some money, the long hot summer grind is about to start again and he's been fielding questions about qualifying offers and how disappointing the team has been so it would be natural to toy with the idea of going home. But he's a very competitive guy, he's putting together another injury-free season (knock on wood) and he's getting to pitch as deep as his efforts merit on any given day, so there's not a ton to complain about. And when folks come around with 3/60 or 4/75 there's almost no way he doesn't answer the call.

The FO made a couple assumptions that didn't work out (again) and so far have not made changes to cover the gaps. 1. Guys that were expected to recover and contribute are still broken. We're not getting good info on Correa and Buxton so it's not clear how healthy they are, but Polanco and Lewis have put themselves in a troubling Unreliable category and are going to have to reestablish themselves as viable MLB players. History is littered with stories of guys who never had the careers everyone expected because of injury, and these four represent a big chunk of our present. (Pitchers should be expected to lose a season every 3-4 years, and you address that with VOLUME, adding guys like Stewart and DeLeon and cycling through the AAA staff. Pollack is coming back soon so Balozavic is moving to short relief. The pitching is not going badly.) 2. Some guys they counted on are not playing well. Kepler is turning out to be Kepler, Vasquez is not who he was supposed to be, and Miranda couldn't hold the gains he'd made over the past couple years. What work has been done to diagnose and fix these guys? During 2022 we were told Max was suffering from a broken toe but this year was going to be better, especially with the shift going away. I'll admit I was cautiously optimistic, but we're well past Give It Another Week and should be deep into an extended benching to break the bad patterns or perhaps some outside swing doctor. Teams often resist major swing overhauls during the season because they're disruptive, but at this point that might be a good thing. 3. Gallo was an insurance policy against having to play much worse guys. Taylor was picked up to caddy for Buxton. Both are working fine (no Celestino or Cave sightings yet) except for the part where you swap the guy out to try better options if they're available. Gallo is swinging hard and taking walks and playing OK defense, and Taylor is playing good D and has hit some long balls, but neither is playing well enough to justify a full time MLB role. Around the rest of the diamond they have moved on to Solano, Castro and Julien and it's well past time to try something out there with the insurance policy guys. In recent years they have made significant mid-year moves, so I still expect them to do something. They have a lot of similar guys piling up in a few spots so I'd expect several of the young corner or 2b guys to be moved (and to probably turn out to be good players where ever they go.) The trick for the office is to choose where to shore up the team. I'd start at 3B since Lewis isn't holding it down, and if he does wants to win a job he can do it at 2B where Polanco is not doing much. The offensive problems are systemic, so maybe I'd play with the coaching staff.

1. If Buxton can't play CF then send him out and get him fixed. Look past the 15 HR and watch his at bats: you'll see he's up there guessing now and looks terrible at the plate. Is it his eyes? his knee? ankle? Don't care, they need to change something to get him back to a confident attacking approach at the plate. Avoiding this is killing two spots in the order. 2. By this point it's clear that Kepler and Gallo are not hitting this way because they're hurt, that they have not discovered anything over last winter, that adjustments were not made. Further there are alternatives like Castro that can pick up the innings plus kids that might not be a lot worse. So it's time to find what you can get for either of them and send one out. I think we need to keep one around because we don't have a lot of depth out there, but change should come soon. 3. I'm coming to a point where I don't want to pencil in the chronically injured for a serious role. Lewis can play whenever he's here. Buxton can play as long as it lasts, we'll always need a SS in case Correa tips over, blah blah blah. But until these guys can be BYRON BUXTON again then take the hit get them fixed. Harper limped through last year but he was effective in his limited role. but then they sat him down and fixed him. 4. We could use a real leadoff guy regardless of position.