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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    Sonny Grey is a pretty good pitcher. He's never going to be the best guy in the league, but you're never going to be bummed out that he's starting for you. He'll be clearly above average and keep you in most games. However Sonny Grey has always had a problem with little injuries. He's only made 30+ starts in a seasons three times, and last year he missed time with hamstring problems and covid, and recovery from those reduced his effectiveness at times. It's to be expected. But when he pitches he's better than most. He's not an ace, but by modern definitions almost no one is. It's just too hard to throw as hard as you have to and to avoid injury while trying to stay ahead of hitters that are watching their last at bats between innings. I can barely imagine anyone doing this anymore.
  2. Cris E
    He's likely a back end rotation guy who will get chances to start. That's more than a Winder or Sands can count on, so good for him and good for the Twins. It's a valuable thing to have a #4 that aspires to be a #3. As mentioned above, these guys cost real money, and not having them means Aaron Sanchez starts getting more innings - good for him but not good for the team.
  3. Cris E
    I wanted Steve Fraley to be real. I still want him to become a recurring Randballs character, maybe a Raymond Chandler-esque, film noir kind of guy that wears a lot of bright colors to throw folks off. Also, Stu, there's room for a weekly ChatGPT feature where Google The Machine writes something for consideration. EDIT: Google is behind and has introduced Bard to catch up. Mea culpa.
  4. Cris E
    His 2023 performance might make or break the Twins' season, but he's not in any danger. He's very good, fairly paid, he's one of the only proven power hitter on the roster, his recent dips in performance directly tie to injuries and there have been no reports that there's been any setback in recovering from them. Every team loves having guys like this around. The fact that the Twins over-played him while he was hurt last year is not on him, as the playoffs drifted out of reach well before the end of the year and they kept playing him despite his injury. His job is to work his therapy, meet the new guys, knock the rust off and be ready for March. There's no reason for him to be worrying about anything else.
  5. Cris E
    Um, MLB contracts already are both guaranteed and have clauses restricting unsafe behavior. NFL contracts are not guaranteed and guys get them broken off all the time for reasons outside their control. There's nothing about NFL contracts that any MLB player should want any part of. Regardless, I'm glad Carlos is taking time off to be with his family (and coincidentally reducing the risk he blows up his ankle.)
  6. Cris E
    If our starting rotation is Grey - Lopez - Mahle - Ryan - Maeda we've got good depth, and strides have been taken with Gallo and Taylor to fix the OF depth and Farmer to add infield flexibility to prevent a repetition of 2022's vulnerability to injury. We should never field a team as bad as last August's. When we roll into DET or KC or PIT or WAS or even CIN it's clear we won't be the underdogs very often even if we do suffer some injuries.
  7. Cris E
    They open on the road and the first game at Target Field is the seventh overall. I expect the rotation to be based at least as much on performance as contract and curb appeal, so we won't know for a month. I wouldn't even guess at this point.
  8. Cris E
    "flounder"
  9. Cris E
    I love it because the games are played with such joy. The repressed American game just doesn't compare with the way it's played in Latin America and Japan. And in the WBC the pros are trash talking and having fun in ways I just find inspiring: it's a fun game and it's good to see people enjoying it.
  10. Cris E
    Maeda is getting the first crack at being a Bundy/Archer starter and Ober is going to pitch in St Paul to develop and be ready when someone gets hurt. If that happens in March then he'll break camp with the big league team and if it doesn't he'll get a regular shift in St Paul. In 2024 I think Grey and Maeda are gone and Lopez, Mahle and Paddack are headlining with Ryan, and the kids who grow this year will get the #5-6 spots. I think Ober and Varland are leading that race today, but others are going to move up by next winter. This is going to be a fun year.
  11. Cris E
    Gallo is useful because we don't have many proven OF right now and he's pretty good with a glove and plays every day. And even in his worst year he produced a 79 OPS+, which is bad but better than the replacements we trotted out before he got here. Sano is a DH and poor 1B, can't stay healthy, and mostly only hits in streaks so he's not very suited for a PH role. He needs to play a lot so there are enough ABs to hold a few hot streaks, but then you have Gallo without the D in the lineup every day. Blergh.
  12. Cris E
    Moore isn't better because he finally got a shot at relieving. He did get a good shot at relieving in 2018 after they pulled him from the rotation. The second two thirds of the season he was in the pen and was almost three runs/gm better than as a starter, yielding only a .252 batting avg in 27 appearances. Alas, the improvement was from an 8.02 ERA down to 5.36 as he gave up 11 HR and 15 BB in 47 innings. It was not great. To build on that he threw 10 innings in 2019, missing 2020 completely, and then was terrible as both a starter and a reliever in 2021. 2022 was completely different, quite excellent. But the fact that pulled all this together at the age of 33 by throwing harder and improving his spin without any other underlying explanation is not reassuring. There are six forecasts for him at Fangraphs and the best one is thinking 3.99 ERA with a 4.22 FIP. Maybe he'll be better than that, but maybe he won't. The established level of performance is not anything close to 2022, so I guess I need to hear a good story about how he's going to sustain this 2mph gain as he gets older. The best I found so far comes from Pinstripe Alley last month:
  13. Cris E
    I think part of the reason the Al Central teams see such a switch is how bad we were last year. We looked bad and they play us less, but I expect us to be improved not only by roster changes and natural player growth but also in improved health. So fewer games against us makes the Guardians' schedule even easier than that analysis indicates. We'll see. It's going to be a much better year to watch baseball in MN than 2022.
  14. Cris E
    If you're going far out like catcher conversions then I might start with a Julien type rather than a guy with serious wheels. The individual player's buy-in is going to matter most in this sort of move, much more than if his brother catches. But in the larger sense you're right: I'd be asking a lot more of these infielders that are hella blocked if they'd consider donning the tools of ignorance. Can't hurt.
  15. Cris E
    The truth is right now there are not that many experienced OF on the 40 man that have shown they can be counted on for 450 AB of average performance. Buxton needs the poor-hitting Taylor to cover his time off, Kepler hasn't got a great record with the bat of late, and Gordon hits well when his babip is over .350 and poorly when it's low, but hasn't established a level of performance yet. And as good as some of the kids look, Larnach and Kirilloff haven't proved anything, Wallner looked good for a tiny bit and at that point you begin converting Martin or someone to LF. They got Gallo to fill a huge hole and it's not solid enough to give away Kepler until after spring training establishes who can replace him.
  16. Cris E
    This list has always felt more optimistic than others, so sure, top ten, why not? But justifying that by his placement on other lists should not be the reason for this rank. He's fun to dream on and he hasn't taken himself out of any future role yet, and that's enough. Not for me, of course. I look for more in the way of production before the unbridled optimism is allowed to fly above everything else. I rarely support low A guys or younger anywhere near the top ten unless a system is seriously bereft of talent. He didn't destroy high A, so I think a guy like this belongs back in the pack with other revelations like the early years of Emmanuel Rodriguez, for example.
  17. Cris E
    I recall the Cruz trade being more about getting a well-liked late-career guy a shot at the playoffs than his being washed up. Regardless, I like watching Ryan pitch. He works quickly, doesn't nibble a lot and gets results. He seems like a good guy and not wound too tight so his interviews are interesting and he comes across kind of relatable. It's easy rooting for a guy like that.
  18. Cris E
    I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early. The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room.
  19. Cris E
    (double post)
  20. Cris E
    It's like they were coming out of a... pipeline?
  21. Cris E
    This could easily have been suggested as part of an organizational move towards better health. Improving flexibility and reducing mass might help keep him on the field, which I think everyone is particularly sensitive to after the carnage of 2022. Regarding Miranda playing first, Plan A is still Kirilloff until he doesn't seize it. Past that, I also think they want to keep first open for whoever turns out to need it. If they have to make room for Lee or Lewis or Martin or Wallner they'll need different kinds of flexibility so starting everyone as far as possible up on the defensive spectrum leaves room on the easy end for injured or displaced guys as the season unfolds. Who knows, Polanco could get hurt and end up over there, or Wallner could shove his way into the discussion early, or Miranda could get shouldered aside by a SS.
  22. Cris E
    He's got something else that few others on this roster have: legitimate, displayed, non-2019 power. Until we see someone other than Buxton hit 25 HR he's the man. Polanco was the only other one on the roster last winter when they went out to find more: Gallo usually does, Correa should, the kids might someday. But Polonco shows up, plays hard, and hits well. He's an important person in this roster not as a 2b but as a #3-4 hitter. I could see him sliding to first if the Lewis/Lee/Martin infield crew arrives before the Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner corner crew.
  23. Cris E
    I will caution that the vast majority those sift-tossing pitcher examples have not thrown an inning during the career of most MLB players. The game is different and there are fewer Doug Jones and Jamie Moyers around than ever. It's not just a stylistic thing either: batters can get in the cage and see as many changeups off the pitching machine as they want. There's film and analytics on when each pitch comes in the sequence and what each pitchers' tendencies are. It was hard to get by with an 88mph heater 15 years ago and it's even harder today. Luckily Varland is more Brad Radke than Jamie Moyer. He's got a fairly normal repertoire and can reach back for the big one when he needs to so hitters have to honor the fastball. I think his challenge is simply having to become a pitcher earlier in his career than the throwers who can get further into their career on power and crazy stuff.
  24. Cris E
    I don't care about HR if he can get his doubles and triples up. Line drives to the wall will keep me very happy until he learns to drive the ball with a little more elevation later in life.
  25. Cris E
    It means our outfield options are better than our 3B options so we chose, say, Larnach in LF and Gallo at 1b rather than Farmer at 3b and Miranda at 1b. Depends on who has stepped up and who broke down.
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