Cris E

This list has always felt more optimistic than others, so sure, top ten, why not? But justifying that by his placement on other lists should not be the reason for this rank. He's fun to dream on and he hasn't taken himself out of any future role yet, and that's enough. Not for me, of course. I look for more in the way of production before the unbridled optimism is allowed to fly above everything else. I rarely support low A guys or younger anywhere near the top ten unless a system is seriously bereft of talent. He didn't destroy high A, so I think a guy like this belongs back in the pack with other revelations like the early years of Emmanuel Rodriguez, for example.

I recall the Cruz trade being more about getting a well-liked late-career guy a shot at the playoffs than his being washed up. Regardless, I like watching Ryan pitch. He works quickly, doesn't nibble a lot and gets results. He seems like a good guy and not wound too tight so his interviews are interesting and he comes across kind of relatable. It's easy rooting for a guy like that.

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early. The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room.

(double post)

It's like they were coming out of a... pipeline?

This could easily have been suggested as part of an organizational move towards better health. Improving flexibility and reducing mass might help keep him on the field, which I think everyone is particularly sensitive to after the carnage of 2022. Regarding Miranda playing first, Plan A is still Kirilloff until he doesn't seize it. Past that, I also think they want to keep first open for whoever turns out to need it. If they have to make room for Lee or Lewis or Martin or Wallner they'll need different kinds of flexibility so starting everyone as far as possible up on the defensive spectrum leaves room on the easy end for injured or displaced guys as the season unfolds. Who knows, Polanco could get hurt and end up over there, or Wallner could shove his way into the discussion early, or Miranda could get shouldered aside by a SS.

He's got something else that few others on this roster have: legitimate, displayed, non-2019 power. Until we see someone other than Buxton hit 25 HR he's the man. Polanco was the only other one on the roster last winter when they went out to find more: Gallo usually does, Correa should, the kids might someday. But Polonco shows up, plays hard, and hits well. He's an important person in this roster not as a 2b but as a #3-4 hitter. I could see him sliding to first if the Lewis/Lee/Martin infield crew arrives before the Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner corner crew.

I will caution that the vast majority those sift-tossing pitcher examples have not thrown an inning during the career of most MLB players. The game is different and there are fewer Doug Jones and Jamie Moyers around than ever. It's not just a stylistic thing either: batters can get in the cage and see as many changeups off the pitching machine as they want. There's film and analytics on when each pitch comes in the sequence and what each pitchers' tendencies are. It was hard to get by with an 88mph heater 15 years ago and it's even harder today. Luckily Varland is more Brad Radke than Jamie Moyer. He's got a fairly normal repertoire and can reach back for the big one when he needs to so hitters have to honor the fastball. I think his challenge is simply having to become a pitcher earlier in his career than the throwers who can get further into their career on power and crazy stuff.

I don't care about HR if he can get his doubles and triples up. Line drives to the wall will keep me very happy until he learns to drive the ball with a little more elevation later in life.

It means our outfield options are better than our 3B options so we chose, say, Larnach in LF and Gallo at 1b rather than Farmer at 3b and Miranda at 1b. Depends on who has stepped up and who broke down.

@Nashvilletwin I think winning gets butts in seats more than losing with style, but losing with style is better than losing ugly. Last year was ugly with a Capital Punishment U, and this is a new year with new possibilities. If we're winning then Rocco is going to do Rocco things, but if things fall apart I do believe they'll sell vets and go young. They have a lot of guys in the last year of their deal and could move many if the sun sets by July 20.

Honestly that last one looks different from the first two, with the hands so different and the left foot overloaded much more. EDIT: Maybe it was the hair that affected him early in the year. That's quite a mane in that middle pic.

I can't speak to your emotional attachments as they aren't supposed to bend to persuasion, but Farmer and Taylor were signed as backups. Well Farmer was placeholding the starting SS job for a few weeks, but he was never intended to hold it long. And Gallo is only here on a one year deal until we find out which of the kids can play at this level. When he was signed they only had Gordon, Buxton and Kepler with any real OF experience (excluding filler like Cave, Garlick et al) and none of them was a lock to be 500 AB of above average performance. They needed another real OF, and even after signing Gallo trading Kepler would be premised on having one of the kids emerge into a real major league starter as a rookie. That's not a given which is why they went another step down that road and picked up Taylor too. We just weren't that deep in proven fielders last November.

There was great pain in MN last season as team designers were forced to dig well through the bottom of the barrel to find enough guys to wear shirts and take paychecks while the major league ballplayers were injured. So a lot of work this winter was spent on depth, and never being caught with the likes of Cage AND Celestino AND Garlick AND Leon AND Hamilton AND Beckham on the 40 man roster together, much less on the field in the same month. Lots of contingency planning built around the guys who are not proven yet, the guys who have health issues, and who can be moved to make room for the ones a year away. No Correa and no one behind him meant they needed an adult SS like Farmer to buy time for one of the kids to grow into the role. Gallo removes the question of ever seeing that parade of crappy OF at Target Field. The fact that he's left or right handed isn't nearly as important as his defense, his health and his record of HR and BB. It's not beautiful baseball, but even in a calamitous down year his 79 OPS+ was about as good as the callow Celestino's 80 with FAR better defense. (See also Jake Cave's 84, Contreas' 24 or Billy Hamilton's -59.) And if you look at the OF names on hand when Gallo was signed, it was Buxton (half time), Kepler (full time) and then young Gordon, new Kirilloff, new Larnach, the unready Celestino, new Wallner, and the detritus: Garlick? Cage? Contreras? Billy Hamilton? Not to say bad things about darling Gordon, but when his babip fell below .300 in Sept/Oct his OPS+ dropped to 87. The FO was looking for a solid floor, so even after Gallo was in hand they went out and got Taylor to be Buxton's understudy. (BTW, I firmly believe that Taylor is only going to play CF and will only darken the grass in LF or RF when injury removes a better offensive option. The man is a fielder, not a hitter: in nine years he's maxxed out at a 104 OPS+ and then a 90 and the rest are below 80, though he is better against lefties. We can afford some poor defense in LF /RF to get a better bat than him in the lineup.) The fact that Gallo could back up 1B after seeing the health issues surrounding Arraez and Kirilloff was gravy. And later it turned out Arraez could be traded because Gallo was on hand to play first if Kirilloff faltered. Miranda was always going to third and Urshela was going to have to move out of his way. There was a herd of infielders coming, most were not staying SS and would need homes. Miranda was already on hand, costing $9m less, nearly hitting as well and improving rapidly, and if he faltered Lewis was there, and Lee was behind him, and Julien was coming and Polanco might get pushed from 2b. Like him all you want, but the corners were getting crowded and Gio was not moving from third so Gio had to go.

How Kepler is playing will dictate who would fill in for an ailing Kirrilof. Miranda moves over if Gallo is needed in the outfield, but Gallo can come in to first if Max is hitting well. There's no way we need the desiccated remains of Yuli Gurriel cluttering up the 40 man when there are this many AAA guys waiting for playing time.

You can try to mess with the swing, but if it isn't working (or the guy resists) then back off and work with what he's got. And in Martin's case maybe he spends time with a baserunning guru so he can identify more leg doubles where he takes advantage of inattentive outfielders. Buxton makes defenses play hard every time he's up, and Martin should be doing the same thing. I think his role should be in the OF and an emergency infielder, replacing Nick Gordon for 2024 or even late this year. I could see Nick moving at the deadline if we need something.

1. The ball that MLB manufactures dictates the baseline numbers for the league, so hoping for individual OPS or AVG numbers is a fool's errand until we see what shape of game the league wants everyone to play. Remember, AL batting average last year was only .243. I liked the places where the prediction was based on OPS+ rather than absolute numbers. 2. It's an odd year so Gallo is going to be great, that one's in the bag. 🤣 Actually I think his fielding will be fine where ever he's allowed to play, and his season will come down to making the contact often enough to keep pitchers out of the strike zone so he can keep getting on base. 3. I'm not too concerned about the performance of most of our vets, so I measure the success for a lot of these guys in plate appearances as much as anything. If Buxton can take the field he'll be one of our top players. If Correa is out there he's going to put up decent numbers. I want Polanco to return as Polanco and play games. Kepler is the only one with questions and there's a line of replacements out the door in the event he doesn't deliver. 4. Gordon needs to show if he's the full time player who hit so well in August or the full time player who fell off so badly in Sept and Oct. And based on his past fielding work and the other options available, he's not really seen as an infielder any more so the hitting standards are raised if he's to be graded as an OF. Austin Martin is going to be auditioning for his job in AA and AA this summer, so he's got to be August Nick rather than September Nick. 4. There's a queue of youngsters that need to prove they belong. Miranda is first, but Larnach and Kirrilof are both right there in needing to show they can stay on the field and pull their weight, and local boy Matt Wallner is just across the river working on his defense and swinging hard in the event Kepler doesn't start hitting grounders through the infield.

Maeda's career numbers are low because he hasn't been allowed to start full time. In retrospect it was probably the right choice because when MN let him do it his arm fell off. He'll get another chance to start here, but honestly he's not a big strong guy, he's had arm issues, and as much as he loves starting he's got real durability issues that make it a bad fit for him. I'd pitch him in a swing role to get his strength up and let him start during the second half, but let him go next fall when he wants to make 30 starts with that body. Someone will sign him but it doesn't have to be us.

He's got a ring, so making a showing in the MVP voting would be the other way to burnish the image. But for Correa the main point is staying on the field and playing more games. He's got 888 games at SS, so he'll need a pile more. Robin Yount only reached 1400, but he put in ten more excellent years in CF. Ernie Banks only played 1100 at SS (and 1200 at 1B) but he hit a million HR so he's in a different category. Most of the rest of the SS were around 2000 games or more, so he's got to hit a ton more or play another five years at SS before he heads somewhere slower to stack up the counting stats. All he can do is do his prep, play the games, stay close with the trainers and hope for the best. He's not unique enough to pull a Mauer and be at first by age 30.

Meh. Chafin is the only one I'd look at. He's consistently produced a FIP below 4 while getting results. The others have results all over the place while the FIP stays high. Moore is exactly the wrong guy, as he's only managed to be above average once since 2015. He had a great 2022, but he threw a 67 ERA+ in 2021, essentially missed all of 19 and 20, and threw ERA+ of 72, 98, 77 and 70 in 2015-18. You already have Pagan and his magical 2019, light a candle and hope that guy comes back next year and save whatever Moore would cost. EDIT: We have a raft of kids that need innings. Get Sands or Ronnie H a bag of seeds and send them to the bullpen to learn how to watch a game from the outfield.

Minor mistake: Rochester --> St Paul You've been doing this a long time Seth, so it's understandable. At least you didn't say Salt Lake or Toledo.

If you want to look at his minor league work check out the fancy 3.99 ERA in 390 IP (less than 5.0 IP per start, and there were only two relief appearances in there to dilute the numbers.) He's only made 5 appearances in AAA and pitched to a crisp 5.06 ERA in 16 innings, all in 2021. His best season as a starter was his second pass through high A when he put together a 3.23 ERA in 15 GS and 78 IP, but the team as a whole had a 3.12 ERA that year so it's not like he was anything special. The fact is he got special when he cut loose and stopped pacing himself. There's no way that he'd be the same guy trying to get through five times as many batters. And the league would have a better book on him if he was trying to throw that much more as well. I'm not certain the book matters when he can rear back and hit 102, but if he can't then the game changes a lot.

No to just about any rookie with fewer than 500 AB in the minors. The jump to the majors is harder than most people imagine and it's a lot of pressure on a 20 year old to have Buxton and Correa waiting for you to set the table. Also no to anyone who has never put together a .350 OBP season. Mr Taylor looks like a fine fielder, a good man in the clubhouse and a conscientious son, but he's a career .296 OBP and belongs in the 9 hole. I like just giving Buxton and Polanco the extra ABs even if they aren't typical leadoff guys. Also, Odd Year Gallo might be a guy you want in the 4 or 5 hole. You kind of have to wait and see who everyone is in spring training, after the carnage of 2022. Lots of new faces and guys that have to get the rust off. Looking forward to seeing how things come out.

Dylan Bundy, for good or ill, is a Proven Veteran with 160 starts, almost 1000 innings in eight big league seasons. He's a known and proven quantity. It's not great quality, but in a season where the Twins were going to be counting on a lot of Smeltzers it was good to have one guy in the #4 hole that they could count on and who might rally and move up to #3. Devin Smelter had 7 starts and 70 career innings and managed to deliver 70 more with a 5.23 FIP which was a run and a half worse than his ERA, indicating that it was likely unsustainable. If you want to be stomping around flipping off management about unfair treatment in a situation like that I'll just say that I'm glad you don't work for me. In his shoes it should always be a "Thanks for the opportunities, see you 'round" in case he washes out in Miami and needs a home in six months.

I think Lee will be ready for MLB well before Correa is ready to move off SS so he may end up manning 3B for a couple years. And honestly I expect him to slide in nicely there, so over the next 3-4 years I expect an infield of Lee, Correa, Polanco/Lewis/Julien and Miranda/Kirriloff. They should be good, and when the time comes to move Correa the parts may move in ways we wouldn't expect today. There may be another younger, better SS ready to go, someone like Salas, and then who knows what happens next. Don't get too far ahead, just let it unfold and enjoy the ride.