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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    1. Julien is already the primary 2B. 2. You included Castro and Kirilloff in OFers but not IFers. We have 2 proven OFers (Buxton and Kepler) and it's hard to rely on Buxton's health. I guess we can call Kirilloff proven but we need him more at 1B than we do the OF. Wallner's sample size is very small but promising. Castro is not an OFer. He is a utility guy and the bat is not adequate for a corner OFer. 3. Yes Garlic and Gordon are OFers but they are not OFers on a contending team, not even close and Larnach is the optime of unproven. Not to mention Buxton's ability to stay on the field also has to be considered. 4. We are under budget but have other needs and the dollars from Polanco can be redistributed to a greater need.
  2. Major League Ready
    Martin stepping up might have the greatest potential to impact this team. We need some RH outfield depth. We also need a guy that gets on base and Martin does that well and then runs the bases well once he gets there. Miranda has showed the potential to be an impact bat so him stepping up would not be surprising. Hopefully, he is working hard on his defense this off-season. I would like to see him come back and dominate giving the twins even more depth to use as trade capital. SWR and Festa might be the most important guys to have step up. We need some starting pitching depth. These two have the potential to be more than back-end innings eaters and their ascension is really important to this team. Canterino has the ceiling to be the highest impact player of any of those discussed. He is the guy I will be tuning into Saints games to see. Would love to see him playing a role on the ML team by July and dominating in September. The sleeper is Yunior Severino. To me he most personifies the "step-up" candidate because he is not on the radar as much as the other guys but he could be the guy whose stock rises the most. There is a lot of ceiling if he can improve his approach and curb the K rate a bit.
  3. Major League Ready
    As I listen to the guys on MLB radio talk about the Reds, they think CES is an elite bat and Steer has been quite good. This was not worth a shot IMO and I said so at the time. Mahle is not a difference maker and the 22 Twins were not a team to invest in as heavily as they did at the deadline. Gibson-Long also looked good in his debut. Obviously, a different trade but the decision to go for it with a team that was not even close to a contender might be the worst decision this front office ever made. Yes, fans are going to support pushing in chips but it's impossible to deny we would be in much better shape if we had CES, Steer, and SGL right now. SGL would be great depth. CES is the starting 1B and Steer would be a utility player and starter against LHP in the OF. Granted, CES started out slow but he got better and better. His OPS was 966 for his last 100ABs. I also think Steer and Castro would make an ideal pair of utility players or CES and Steer would be great trade capital for pitching.
  4. Major League Ready
    I think people are ignoring that they are trying to redistribute payroll. Trading Polanco is the only option that accomplishes that goal. They might also include Lee for the right pitcher but Polanco is by far the most likely to be traded.
  5. Major League Ready
    After the recent additions, the Royals are at $95M in Payroll and the Tigers are at $102M. They were due to spend.
  6. Major League Ready
    Trade Rumors projects Kiermaier at 2/26. Spotrac has Grisham at $3.175M so more like an extra $10M for Kiermaier. I don't see them spending this much on a CF option.
  7. Major League Ready
    Neither of them can hit RHP. The difference is that Bader has a career .823 OPS against LHP and Grisham .748. Bader could be a a good platoon player with our LH heavy OF. He can also be a late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.
  8. Major League Ready
    We forget Miranda was a beast for a period of time. I would love to see him get back to that form and make your prediction come true.
  9. Major League Ready
    You make a good point if they can 90% of the production from a younger player. Larnach would replace him and I just don't know if that Larnach will produce at what we would call 90%. Plus, what if Larnach or Wallner get hurt? Other teams have proven getting something for players on their way out sustains winning but we are pretty thin in the OF.
  10. Major League Ready
    Answers in bold above.
  11. Major League Ready
    You also can't assume a 50/50 model nets the same in every sport. Baseball has more significant operating costs. The 50/50 split here also does not include benefits and signing bonuses. NBA players don't get a draft bonus like MLB. Those bonuses are at least 5% of the Twins revenue. Taxes and player benefits are over 10%. That's a total of 65% of the revenue before the other hundreds of employees are paid, facilities costs, equipment, office space, travel, etc are paid for. IDK how accurate this is by a read an article once that suggested operating costs were around 35%.
  12. Major League Ready
    Do you understand that during the last CBA the players took an adamant stand about increasing the luxury tax threshold above what the owners offered and by doing so increased the disparity.
  13. Major League Ready
    Let’s start with the premise that the Owners and the league have done in inadequate job of growing the game. I am sure you have looked at the year over year revenue growth and the salary increases to players. If you’re a player, you should be thrilled with the growth of the game and what that has meant to player compensation. MLB player compensation has outplaced inflation by 100X over the past 50 years so I think the industry has done quite well. Now, the distribution of that money has very much favored elite players but the players have driven that model or at the very least not focused the increases to the masses. The league was also quite innovative with rule changes last year that improved the product significantly. Point being that the premise that they have not adequately grown the game is not consistent with history. As much as I would like to see much less variance in revenue like the NFL, you just can’t realign all the revenue streams. The other leagues were built on a different business model. Baseball was around for 75 years before the NBA and NFL. At this point there would be enormous economic sanctions on the top teams if an equity model was instituted. Imagine you own the Dodgers, Yankees, red Sox, etc and the league proposes revenues be shared equally. The drop in evaluation would be somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple billion dollars. It also would not be the best thing for the league. Revenues are maximized by having the highest profile players in the biggest markets. Neither the owners or the players want this model. Small market fans would like it but that’s not of great influence here. I would also be surprised if the ownership group does not have some sort of legally binding agreement that mandates the terms of any changes to revenue sharing which protects the interests of the top revenue generating teams.
  14. Major League Ready
    Sounds good in theory. Now convince the owners of the top teams to lose a billion or two billion in valuation by going to this model. We are just too far down the given path in MLB to make this sort of remarkable change. Frankly, someone else replied that revenue is maximized by the top markets having star players. He/she was right. Neither the owners or players want to make a change that will likely hurt revenue generation. Disparity is a problem for equitable competition. It's not an economic/business problem. That's why we have what we have. The owners and players are making a fortune. Giving small market fans equity is not a priority.
  15. Major League Ready
    Let's use your mid-point of $210M in Payroll. Benefits and taxes are at least another $20M so $230M. Plus, $15M in draft bonuses (Domestic & International) That's $245M and the bottom teams generate around $240M. Of course, they also have to pay for hundreds of employees and all the operating costs associated with a MLB team. Therefore, a $210M floor is not even remotely feasible. I hate the disparity but it's simply not financially to set the floor high enough to offset the ceiling in terms of overall dollars paid to players. The top revenue teams produce 250% of the revenue of top teams. You can't raise the floor enough to reduce that gap. That's why the players were focused on increasing the luxury tax threshold. Had the owners insisted on the modest increase in the tax threshold they originally proposed, the players likely would have gone on strike and the owners would have been crucified by MLB fans. The disparity is not on the owners. They would gladly reduce the Luxury tax threshold and increase penalties. However, that would take a lot of money out of players pockets, That's why it won't happen without a work stoppage.
  16. Major League Ready
    I agree we should applaud the team and the player. However, how many players do you suppose would be willing to accept this type of "creative approach". Ohtani makes $45M/ year in endorsements. Plus, the Twins also are never going to be against the luxury tax threshold so it seems unrealistic to ask why the Twins are not getting deals like this done. We will have to wait and see what they do this year but they did quite well in modest costs deals like MAT, Solano, Pagan, and Stewart. The big deals most people here were adamant about being needed (Correa & Mahle) have not been so good. They also got criticized for Pagan and Paddack and that deal is looking pretty good.
  17. Major League Ready
    To add to your point, the Rangers pitching was suspect until the deadline. I also agree with your point about spending $14m on Burnes plus the trade capital for a 1 year rental is not happening.
  18. Major League Ready
    The optimistic view reveals a fair amount of upside. A resurgence from Buxton and Correa would make this team better than most of us are counting on. We also only got 239 PAs from Lewis. An entire season with Lewis raises the bar too. The other guy that has unrealized ceiling is Kirilloff. I just get the sense there is a beast ready to emerge. We also won't have the constant K machine (Gallo) in the lineup and Vazquez can't be as bad as last year either if he is still here. That's my upside take on the situation.
  19. Major League Ready
    I only saw him play CF in a handful of games but he looked pretty good. I thought he was a little better coming in as opposed to going back but it was a SSS.
  20. Major League Ready
    I read this and thought ... This is spot on. After thinking about it. The player's dictate this particular form of intrigue for MLB. All the media outlets would be more than willing to promote baseball in this way. So, it really is up to the players where this sort of publicity and promotion is concerned. My opinion sways toward that this is the players right and we should respect their choice. We just need to understand that players making hundreds of millions are going to make self-centered choices. There was absolutely no benefit to Ohtani in providing access and as you point out probably a PR nightmare. Players don't think long-term about the league. The tone of the last CBA was clearly about "getting mine". The luxury tax and revenue sharing illustrated they are focused on the immediate terms and putting the most money in their pockets while the forced an increase in revenue disparity. Expecting anything else from them would be naive. Now, the league could have and perhaps approached Ohtani with some form of promotion that would have negated any PR concerns. However, I doubt that a guy who released the information himself was going along with any form of MLB promotion.
  21. Major League Ready
    Without a medical report and a doctor to interpret the results, I have no idea what to expect from Correa or Buxton. However, I know two things ... The prospect of either or both rebounding is pretty darn exciting, and the optimistic point of view is more fun.
  22. Major League Ready
    Probably recency bias on my part. I thought his D looked pretty good late in the season but now that you mention it, I do recall some poor play early in the season.
  23. Major League Ready
    He was a little below average for the first half with a wRC+ of 88. In comparison, Correa was at 92 and Kyle Farmer who nobody is complaining about was 85. I think it comes down to if they can get someone to believe he has found something sustainable. If so, the return would be higher than Verdugo and perhaps something the Twins would accept. My guess is that they would rather move Polanco and Vazquez, in that order.
  24. Major League Ready
    Fangraphs actually has him as slightly below average defensively which does not match what I thought I saw on the field.
  25. Major League Ready
    Not everyone is saying this. A few people saw him struggle at first and have chosen to completely ignored that he settled in and was pretty average at 2B. The only way he gets traded is for a really good SP with 3 or more years of control.
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