Major League Ready

We are 100% aligned on this one. I would frame it this way. Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee have provided a framework for success with modest revenue. The Twins need to make good decisions following these practices. Build a core the way you have been talking about for quite a while now. Then, utilize their modest revenue advantage over these teams to make their model even better. This could mean utilizing the extra payroll capacity in free agency to get a final piece or two. The additional payroll capacity could also be used to extend a couple core players. IE. Jose Rameriz. Those deals have probably been on average more effective than free agency. BTW ... The Twins are better positioned currently to execute this model than they have been in quite a while. Obviously, some prospects need to work out and they will need to devote 2026 to retooling the roster but they have a deep farm system that could enable them to build the way these other teams have succeeded. We should consider how Cleveland, Milwaukee or Tampa would likely proceed if their organizations were in this position? History would suggest g=free agency would play a small role or no role at all.

Are you looking to fix this roster to contend in 2026? They would need to fill SS and 1B with trades or free agents. Lewis is a pretty big question mark as well if you are looking to contend. Do you hope that Lewis steps up or do you fill his position as well. We also need a at least one corner OFer. Do you fill these positions and hold Jenkins and Culpepper back? I guess you hold back GG as well. You don't go out and fill holes with free agents and trades only to replace those players with prospects, right? If you are looking to trade for difference makers, you will need to trade away some combination of Jenkins/Culpepper/Tait/Abel/Matthews. Is that what you are advocating?

The evidence is indisputable. There is no doubt the highest payroll teams have produced the most playoff or 90-win teams if you want an easy objective to compare against. That said, I bet the correlation between revenue and payroll is much higher than the correlation between winning and payroll. The question that should be asked but never is would be how the Twins revenue rank compares to their payroll rank. There have countless articles complaining about spending but if there has ever been an article that was meant to provide an objective and quantifiable measure of Twins spending, I missed it. Not one TD writer has ever written an article focused on providing an objective measure as far as I know. What is reasonable to expect is that the team spends the same percentage of revenue as other teams. Expecting a team with 90% of average revenue to spend like a team with a 110% of average revenue will result in disappointment. That's a $70M swing. Perhaps more to the point is that three teams (Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee) have been more successful than all of the other teams in the bottom half of revenue any many others outside the top 5 in revenue. There is often almost an obsession with spending that tends to ignore the realities of revenue. It also completely ignores how teams without a revenue advantage have managed to construct winning teams. The evidence of how to win with average or less revenue is as clear as the advantage of a larger payroll. Ignoring that very clear evidence is not what I hope for from the Twins. I want them to follow the acquisition strategies that have made the teams mentioned above successful. Those strategies are at odds with building through free agency. Those teams also do far more trading for prospects than they do trading away prospects. A low payroll in 2026 would be indicative of following the strategies that have made Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee successful. Once they actually have a viable core, they should spend for final piece or two. We are not remotely in that position.

I don't think we should try to lock down 3 years of mediocrity, especially in 2026. Arraez has one strength but he is below average in every other aspect of the game. Let's see if Mendez or Fedko can make the transition. Maybe there is a trade to be made. If that does not work, let's look at our options at this time next year but locking into an option that really isn't a solution in what will likely be a retooling (non-contending) year is not a good plan IMO.

I think Roden starts as much or more than Wallner in the OF. His Milb track record is too good to give up on him after 150 major league ABs. Wallner starts a lot of games but half or more of them as the DH. They will both need to prove themselves with Jenkins, GG and others near ready. He will see very little time in the OF once Jenkins gets established and hopefully that's relatively early in the season.

I agree they should be able to get something in trade for Larnach and therefore should tender an offer. Also agree Martin and Larnach are not necessarily an either or. However, if this team is to be successful, I don't see a path where Larnach has a role. Success means that Jenkins has taken one spot and one of Martin / GG / Roden or even Rosario/Fedko coming up and all of them providing better offence, defense and base running than we are getting from Larnach.

I view the $$$ part secondary. The question is what are we trying to accomplish. Are we just trying to put the best team on the field in 2026 or are we trying to build a contender. IMO, we can't do both. There are far too many holes to fill and far too big a gap between players like Larnach and what it takes to be a real contender. The Twins are not contending in 2026. Larnach would take a roster spot that could be used to audition players that could be part of a contender for multiple years. This starts with Martin who was better than Larnach this year at every aspect of the game. If we want to get a way from slow guys that can't run the bases or play defense, we need to make these roster decisions. Speaking of more all-around players. They also need to give Roden a shot and they probably will give Outman a shot as well. Then you have the potential real upgrades in the form of Jenkins and GG on the doorstep. I might even prefer giving Fedko a chance because at least we know he can run and play defense. We will have to invest playing time in guys who have the potential to take us to the next level. We can't complain about lack of playoff success if we are unwilling to do what it takes to get there.

You are twisting to fit a narrative that suits you. I said you can't lose something you would never have had. However, if you wish to compare alternatives that did exist, the Twins spent money that could hat is reasonable to compare alternatives that did exist. They spent the money that would have gone to Berrios on Lopez which is a better contract and they got SWR/Martin as a bonus. They can't possibly lose this trade at this point but it has the potential to be of significant benefit to the team going forward.

The innings Berrios pitched after he would have become a free agent should not be used for comparison. He was not staying in Minnesota. He had 250 IPs during the period he would have been under control which is roughly the same as SWR to this point. I think it's more accurate to say we signed Lopez on a much better contract with the money saved got SWR and Martin for the next 5 years at low cost. We will have to see just how productive SWR and Martin are for the next 5 years but this deal looks very good for Minnesota at this point in time.

I said many times before Lee made it to the majors that he did nothing in the minors to suggest he would be above average at this level. He is a poor defender and simply does not possess the athleticism to be even an average defender at SS. He is also a below average hitter, That's exactly the type of player that needs to be upgraded if the team wants to contend. He is barely above replacement level.

Yep, we really need Culpepper to step up and take over that position. Lee is well suited for a utility role.

We have no BP, we need two new corner OFers and a 4th OFer. 1B/SS and 3B are all relatively weak or non-existent in the case of 1B and we need a BU catcher. Yes, the odds of turning that around next year are VERY low. Yet, I would bet most of the plans we hear around here for a while will be how to make this team a contender next year and failure to follow that ill-fated plan must be a result of an unwillingness to spend. How do they improve the odds of building a contender? They need to invest one season (2026) in auditioning the plethora of OFers and pitchers they have in the system. The odds of building a great OF from the group of Buxton/Martin/Jenkins/GG/Roden/Rosario and Fedko are quite good. The odds of building a good pitching staff between Matthews/Abel/Bradley/SWR/Rojas/Morris/Prielipp/Culpepper and others is pretty good. Matthews/Abel/Bradley/SWR showed they have what it takes in that last week of the season. They also have the 4th pick next year and they could acquire some very significant pieces if they trade Ryan and/or Lopez. It would sure help if there was a great college infielder available at 4 next year but there is a good chance they could get a great AA or AAA SS or 3B for Ryan/Lopez. There is a path with reasonable odds, it just does not start with contending in 2026 and that will be tough for some fans to accept. I can see a reasonable chance of a good team in 2027 with Abel/Matthews/Bradley/SWR/Prielipp as the SPs and Buxton/Jenkins/GG, and Martin in the OF. Keaschall/Culpepper/Lewis and a couple players who are not in the organization yet as the Infield.

This is also true of Tampa. Both teams produce as much from trading established players for prospects as they do from drafting. We also see the assumption the Twins traded Berrios because they are cheap repeated over and over? How many SPs have the Guardians, Brewers or Rays given a 7 year extension or any significant extension? The Brewers traded a legit Cy Young candidate away a couple years ago. Cleveland has traded away quite a few very good SPs. Just my opinion but I think we should pay more attention to how other teams in the bottom half of revenue have found success and not criticize the Twins for practices that have made other teams successful.

There are 15 teams in the bottom half of revenue. Those 15 teams have won the WS exactly once in the past 20 years. Let's do the math. That's a total of 300 teams but you are going to equal that output in 5 years. That's 60X the rate of the other organizations combined. I am skeptical!

They won 70 with Ryan and Lopez this year and Duran/Jax/Varland/Bader for two-thirds of the year. Is Baldelli responsible for the 15-win shortfall?

I think you make a good point but I also think they give Lewis 1 more year to prove himself. Brooks Lee will get a couple month runway but he will have to look better offensively and defensively or likely be replaced before the half-way point by Culpepper. Keaschall gets a couple months at 2B but he just might end up at 1B depending on what emerges for 1B and 2B options. The OF is a similar situation. They probably start the season with Buxton/Martin/Roden and Outman. Hopefully, Jenkins is up by June 1 and takes one of those spots. I would not be shocked if Wallner is not even on the roster come spring. They have many OF options that are ready or nearly ready. They won't contend even if they keep Ryan and Lopez unless everything goes remarkably well but they will be interesting.

I don't think a real candid answer would have gone over very well with the players and manager. He could have said our big acquisition (Correa was very mediocre. Larnach regressed and we just need to wait for Walker Jenkins to fill that spot. Lewis was below average, and we need to hope he fulfils his potential or move on. Wallner has many holes in his game. We will audition a host of good prospects for his spot. Pablo only pitched 75 innings. Hopefully he is healthy next year. Ober was bad but we have guys that will be here soon that should be better than him. We will finally get Vasquez out of the lineup next year. Pereda can't be any worse and showed some potential. Maybe we can get a good back-up in free agency. Lee is too slow to be a major league SS and we hope Culpepper will be here by June. What should he have said? I suppose it would make people happy if he said I put together a roster of players that have not performed but it wouldn't go over to big with the players and also would be a good way to sell even less tickets.

Fedko needs to spend the winter working on taking ground balls and his foot work at 1B. He could find a role as a 1B/OF.

$30M in free agency gets us 3-4 wins. Does anyone believe that puts us in contention. Would $60M and 6-7 wins added get us in contention? The only way they have a shot in 2026 is spend $60M and trade away several top prosects to get a couple difference makers. I think the chances of that happening will be exceptionally small. The only scenario that's worse than a rebuild is starting a rebuild and then changing course almost immediately. If they wanted to retool they needed to keep Duran, Jax, Varland, and only traded Correa and the expiring contracts. Changing direction now would be the height of incompetence

Interesting you knew the lineup that scored 9 runs would cause us to lose.

Two-thirds of the MLB teams generate less than $400M. The 500th ranked company in the fortune 500 generates $7.4B. Put another way, the 500th ranked business generates 10-X the revenue of the highest revenue team and 20X the average. The 200th ranked company generate $21B which is alost double all the teams combined. I don't think we can compare the responsibility associated with the CEO of a $7B or 21B or $50B company to a baseball player. The most important person in a $400M company probably makes $1M so the $30M annual salaries even for teams that generate $600M is an extremely high percentage of total revenue. Professional athletes good enough to stick on a roster have the greatest gig on earth. I don't know how the solve the floor/ceiling equation given the massive difference in revenue. The bottom teams simply can't make a profit at $150M payroll. That would render those franchises to have virtually no value or arguably no value. Even if it was a $150M, what would the players accept as a ceiling? there is no way they can get it to a 10% difference as has been suggested. I doubt if they could get it to 50% meaning something like 300/150. Any floor that would allow for a floor/ceiling difference that would make a difference. It will be interesting to see what they do. The most feasible to me is to redistribute revenue sharing based in greater part to spending on payroll.

Hard to argue with that logic.

For me there are a number of reasons when taken collectively say reboot. The catalyst is I just don't think they have a chance in 2026 to completely rebuild the BP and fix the position players enough to have a reasonable shot at a playoff spot much less legitimately contend. I also expect a significantly shortened season in 2027. Given these realities for 2026-27 and the point you made about Ryan and Lopez returning the most talent, I think they move both unless the return is not compelling for some reason. Keeping Ryan/Lopez/Ober also means losing 3 primary SPs at the end of 2027. If they are successful transitioning Keschall / Jenkins and a couple of Gonzalez / Rodriguez / Rosario / Fedko and Culpepper, now they have a core of position players and 3 new spots to fill in the rotation. Some SP prospects are not going to get a shot at the big league level with this approach and they have created a problem. I guess they could move Ober but I think they want to audition as many SPS as possible, build a rotation and add to the BP with 2 or 3 guys that don't make the rotation. They need the roster spots for this portion of the rebuild. This rebuild approach is very complimentary to the point you have been making about prearb players.

Think for a moment how many positions are question marks or need and upgrade. Both corner OF spots. 1B has nobody and they have given some OF prospects reps at 1B. Keaschall has solidified a spot on the roster but I am not sure it's 2B. 3B is Lewis for now but he is also questionable. Catcher has no depth and Jeffers is gone after 2026. Lee is not an everyday SS. The BP has nobody. They literally need 4-5 RPs with a couple of them being back of the BP types. That's a team that needs to be rebuilt. They understand that fans hate the idea of a rebuild. I interpret the statements about major league ready assets as posturing. They can point to all the soon to be here prospects and make a reasonable case to the fan base that the rebuild period will be considerably shorter than normal. I would that from a buyer's perspective, they knew the core was just not there and tearing it down prior to a sale is far more appealing to a buyer than doing it soon after buying the team.

If trading away Duran, Jax, Varland and Correa did not convince you I guess we will just need to wait until this winter and see what happens. Let's revisit this in March. Changing direction now would be exceptionally incompetent.