Dman

Happy to see the Twins putting some distance from the .500 mark. They were always going to need a run to push forward and now lets hope they have the mojo to sustain a division winning second half. Its a lot more fun to watch when the team is winning games especially the close ones. Felt bad for Maeda the pen just loves to sabotage any possible win when he pitches great. Nice to see him pitch well now the Twins have to find a way to solve Kirby. Seattle has some good pitching it is surprising they aren't doing a bit better themselves. Twins are going to need more wins so hopefully they find a way to take this series and keep things rolling from there.

Love these summaries! Thanks!

Totally agree with the wild swinging through pitches\over eager approach at times. I watched him take two horrible at bats when I went to a live game in Beloit and yet the next three at bats he hit the ball hard all three times for base hits. I don't think he walked that night but he does like ambushing first pitch strikes (mainly fastballs) and I am not sure how well that plays the higher he moves up. Still as others have said since his slow start he has pretty much been back to his old self which looks All Star worthy. I still have questions but 20 year old's don't generally dominate like he has so I think Law was right to rank him fairly high. There are things to work on though.

The tough part is figuring out what the value back for players would be. If it is meaningful I could see making a deal but so many of the guys we might trade have value on the margins and are not huge difference makers so getting anything of any real value seems difficult. If you can't get anything back that moves the needle then might as well just role with what you have. TBH if they can get value trading any of the guys on one year deals I would do those deals. If some team wants to overpay for MAT I do that deal knowing one of Castro, Celestino, Lewis or Gordon when he comes back can play there. Gallo if any team will take him I wouldn't even care about the return might be it is addition by subtraction. Kepler if the value is there do the deal but with another year left they can wait as well. I am not eager to part with the young bats especially not Wallner because we don't even know what he can do yet at the MLB level and he seems to be as good or better than Gallo anyway. With Gallo likely gone next year and Kepler with one foot out the door it doesn't seem prudent to trade the young lefty bats IMO.

That is what I saw too so they can give him full slot and he fell right about where he was expected to fall so I don't see why Boras would have leverage to get more than slot. Especially since two of the top 5 already signed under slot deals. That leads me to believe something might have popped up in the physical that is making them think twice or want to go under slot to try and sign pick number 20? Not sure but it doesn't make sense that it is taking this long as the money is there.

I know this might be off subject but are we signing Jenkins or is there trouble in paradise? The deadline for signing is coming up and so far crickets. McCleod has been pitching pretty well after TJ. Hoping he can be a lefty solution down the line. Those high A hitters are still doing well. They have three hitters in the top 10 for OPS (not including the recently moved up Schobel). Rosario is number 2, Rodriguez number 8 and Cardenas number 10 and if you go as far as 15 then Ross is there making it four. That doesn't include the two promoted bats that don't qualify in Cossetti (.851 OPS would be tied with Rosario if qualified) and Ortgea with a .747 OPS.. Those guys are having good years.

Nice to see Miller hitting the ball hard. He has more HR's in July than the previous three months to start the season. So far in July he has a .800 OPS which we haven't seen from him in quite some time. I hope his July bat is here to stay because his defense is very, very good add in a plus hit tool and he could be a very valuable player for a Twins system with few true shortstops. Ohl pitched really well. Too bad that Triple spoiled his line. 7 K's and keeping that WHIP in line he knows how to pitch sometimes things just don't break your way.

Kind of curious about the Kuechel non opt out. So does this mean that the Twins are planning to deal players at the deadline to make room for Kuechel? You would think that just before the deadline would be a good time to opt out as teams are generally looking to add pitching. Granted most playoff teams might not consider him a difference making arm, but still he seems like a good depth piece\insurance to cover for injuries a team might suffer. The other question is does he have more leverage just after the deadline for teams that didn't get the players they wanted or found the prices to high pay? Will he opt out just after the deadline or will he not need one because there is a wink, wink agreement he will be added once the Twins make more room? In interviews he sounded like he didn't want to stay with a team that didn't view him as a 40 man add. He has pitched pretty well at AAA. While his WHIP is a bit of a red flag the .90 ERA is impressive. Unless there just isn't league wide interest in him I don't know why he would pass on taking the opt out at what seems like a prime time to be on the market. Unless he is essentially guaranteed a spot.

It feels like we talked about this issue last year and the Twins ended up trading Arraez with Polanco already there and Jullian hoping to step in which he has in a big way. Kirilloff at 1st was another reason they felt they could move Arraez for the right fit and Pablo Lopez turned out to be it. I don't think there has to be much of a log jam just yet but there is one coming. The Twins love to draft and develop 2nd basemen and they have three more in AA in Lee, Severino and Schobel. Schobel statistically looks pretty much like a Lee clone with walks and K rate and while a level lower Schobel led his league in HR's until his promotion so he has power. Ben Ross also could be joining them though his K rate is a bit high and average a bit low but he is a league leader in HR's as well. If Miller ever hits he is yet another infielder they would need to find a spot for and that doesn't even include Helman and Prato or Gordon or Miranda for that matter. They have time as none of those guys need to be promoted right now but it won't be long. It sure feel like Polanco and Gordon might be the odd men out and Lee looks like he will be ready whenever the Twins decide to call him up. They need right handed bats in the outfield and while I know they didn't want Royce out there this year I have to believe they are going to need him play out there to find room with all the infielders coming up. Will have to wait and see what FO decides to do but I don't think they really have to worry about it a ton until next year.

I really appreciate these writeups and the brief glimpse into the players personality. Thanks for dong these!!

Schobel not slowing down at AA. Nice to him off to a good start. He and Lee with 5 of the 7 hits for Wichita last night. Quite the one, two punch. Nice to see Varland have his control back. Not sure if he was over throwing or what the deal was, but he went through a tough stretch. Hopefully he is back on track now. Larnach went 0 for 5 and left 8 men on base last night. That is not going to help him get called back up. He did take a walk though so that's good. Rodriguez has a game changer swing and seems to be back to the hitter he was last year. A .940 OPS in June and .850 OPS to start July. That double in the 9th was clutch. Rosario slumping in July but got the game winning hit. He hits that ball hard but a lot of outs to deep left. Needs to get a bit more of the barrel on some of those and his numbers change big time. Olivar not having the same level of success he had in the FCL but he still is the best hitter on his team except for maybe McCusker who is old for the level. So far in July he has an .880 OPS. Taking plenty of walks as well and looks like a well rounded hitter. Not sure how well he catches but if he can play there his bat really plays up. Things are looking up for lot's of bats hoping guys stay hot.

Lee had some tough BABIP luck the beginning of this season hitting line drives right at guys. HIs K rate and Walk rate never really wavered the ball just wasn't dropping in as much as hoped. The more recent Harder contact has helped as well and while doubles are great, home runs are even better and hitting them generally gets you to MLB faster. Lee has double digit HR's not elite by any stretch but like most of his game rock solid. Nice to see the numbers finally working in his favor a little bit. Personally given the consistent approach at AA I think he technically is ready for MLB right now but no reason to hurry him and getting used to a lot of the junk stuff AAA pitchers throw would be a good final test. Hopefully they move him up in August so that he has a chance to maybe help the team down the stretch or at least early next year.

Totally agree it could be crazy money for the team that believes in him. 30M per wouldn't surprise me at all for a team needy for pitching with higher payroll dollars. Just go out and win any bidding war and call it a day. He isn't real young though so he needs to prove he can handle things the rest of this season.

I think 3/75 is what his side will ask for. Whether they can get it or not just depends on how other teams see Gray. To me he isn't an official number 1 like Sherzer\Verlander but also not too far off. I think a three year deal at 20M per year seems like the floor if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well. If he falls of in the second half might be more in line with 15 to 17 per year. I don't think the Twins go three years with Gray. They have invested in Lopez and have Ryan and Ober with Paddack on the way back. I think they will be OK without him but who knows for sure what will happen. I never saw them resigning Correa either.

If this is just a Castro versus Gordon deal then yes I think Castro is the better option. They both are aggressive at the plate and don't walk much. Their batting stats are really pretty close but Castro seems better and more versatile in the field. He also is a switch hitter which can give him better pitching matchups. That being said neither player looks like they will ever be much over a .700 OPS hitter and that is why they are bench bats. Castro has never even had an OPS over .700 except in the COVID shortened 2020 year. So long term I think you hope for something better there, but his versatility seems unmatched as he can do most everything well but not really elite in any area. I think he stays in this role until someone better comes along and that someone better doesn't seem like Nick Gordon to me.

Not sure what it means but when I saw him live when they were in Beloit I just don't think he see's the ball well and he rarely squares anything up. I know he is young and might just need more time but he looks eerily similar to Wander Javier at the plate IMO. I honestly don't think the hit tool is going to come around but that is just my untrained eye with some bias built in as guys that don't have that skill when younger generally have to be late bloomers or not make it all. He is dead last in OPS at the High A level. That does not show top 30 talent to me even if he is young for the level if the talent is there he shouldn't be dead last. Urbina isn't far behind him. Another guy that might flame out and Miller isn't too far off from that himself although he has been hitting the ball hard and better lately. Its a tough league and those guys are young. I get that there is time. Next year maybe they have a better handle on approach or how to handle what's coming. I might be a little too pessimistic this early but maybe the Twins see some of the same things. He needs to get back to the basics and sort some things out. Glad they are giving some time away.

Thanks for the great coverage of the draft!! There is no better site for the Twins draft than Twins Daily. The interaction you get to have is top notch as is the information. I will say looking back a lot of the Twins best players and biggest stars came from the high school ranks so I like the fact fact they leveraged that this draft. Still while high school picks often have the highest ceiling they also have the lowest floors. So no guarantee's there. The Twins have nailed a lot of picks in the last three drafts but I still like what they did in 2021 with Petty and then grabbing three left handed pitchers. Granted most of the top of that draft has been traded away now as other teams liked those picks as well. 2022 is looking pretty good right now as well if Prielipp were healthy it would be looking even better so I think they are identifying good players and doing a good job of development. Hoping this class is their best one yet. Thanks again for covering the draft for us junkies who like to follow it early. 🙂

Walter Jenkins Jenkins has louder tools than Lee. More power, better speed and I hope just as good a hit tool at least it is rated to turn out that way. If the speed holds he has true 5 tool potential. Brooks Lee Lee Is a rock solid player but needs more power or better batting average to be a difference maker IMO. Charlee Soto Already throws hard and has ace upside. Most exciting pitcher in the system if you ask me. Emmanuel Rodriguez He has been very Jekyll and Hyde this year and I have lost some faith but he is still young and the upside so high I am giving him the 4 spot. Marco Raya Going with Raya here but have to say I am getting worried about reliever risk. Still he bends pitches like Berrios so deserves a high spot. Matt Wallner There are a lot of underlying warts to his hitting profile, but he just keeps putting up good numbers. He is ready for his shot, and we'll find out if his weaknesses are too much to overcome at the MLB level or not. Tanner Schobel Schobel gets no love but he is outperforming Lee granted at a lower level. This high a ranking might be premature but no other player has dominated his level so thoroughly this year. He is leading his league in HR's and 2nd or third in OPS. He is performing better than a lot first round picks taken in his draft year. I thought about putting him as high as number 4 but the sample size is just too small. David Festa AA has been a challenge but he still gets the K's and the FIP and xFIP look solid. Feels like he is going to need another something to make it though. Brent Headrick You can easily argue I have him too high here. He has average stuff but finds a way to get guys out. I might too big a believer but this is my list so have him at 9 Matt Canterino This also might be high for an elite pen arm but has the pitches and the velocity so I think he could be special out of the pen. Connor Prielipp Dropping Connor mainly because back to back TJ makes me wonder if his arm will ever hold up and I certainly no longer see him as a starter. He still has elite movement and could be a shut down pen arm so he slides to 11 for me. Noah Miller I love watching Miller play defense. Picks the ball, makes the throws, gets in good position he feels elite defensively to me. Even though he can control the strike zone and take walks the contact he makes is weak. I was going to drop him lower but he is having a hot July with a 1.000 OPS. Hitting homers and doubles so if the bat does come around he will be top 5 for me. If he continues to struggle at the plate I see him continuing to move down as he isn't getting any younger. Luke Keaschall Don't know much about him yet but he runs well and looks like he will have power and have a strong hit tool. Sounds like he might need to work on his defense but 13 feels like a good place to start for a guy with above average offensive tools. Yasser Mercedes Off to a poor start in the FCL but not surprising as most first year DSL players struggle that first year. Still has a ton of tools, but want to make sure that hit tool is for real before moving him higher up the list. Kala'i Rosario He probably should be higher on this list as he has been the most consistent player from the start of the season. Like Schobel he is top three for OPS in his league and just a homer or two behind Schobel and he is younger than Schobel. His defense has been a little rocky so I put him a little lower and he has been slumping some as the season wears on. He could and maybe should be top 10 but gonna wait and see. Jordan Balazovic He is still striking guys out at a good clip but the ERA and FIP are not great and it is hard to see him as an "elite" type arm. Maybe 5th starter? Maybe bullpen arm? The shine is off for me but the K rate lands him here for me. Andrew Cossetti Probably too high for Cossetti but I just like the guy and he dominated A ball. He is stocky with a good catchers build. Actually Camargo should be right there with him but I don't see him on the list. I will let them share this spot as I like both but Cossetti has well rounded peripheral numbers that make me think he could be a truly well rounded catcher. Taking a chance putting him this high but I like his numbers so far. Junior Severino He likes to hang around the .900 OPS mark. Hits the ball hard and likes to hit HR's but his BABIP and K rate worry me. Still he is a power bat with a decent average. I think he belongs here. Austin Martin Still has the skills just waiting for him to put it together. He has been a mess. I need to see more before I put him higher and he isn't really all that young anymore either. Jose Rodriguez Only big DSL player from last year holding his own in the FCL. The power is not there this year but at least he is hitting the ball. I still think he could be a special bat but will have to wait and see. SWR doesn't make my list as I don't see elite arm and the fastball doesn't look good. Enlow hasn't shown me quite enough to trust him yet at least in the top 20. Salas has the worst OPS in the Midwest league there is no one lower. He can't be top 20 with a bat that bad. I wanted to put Ross in but needed to see better plate discipline and higher batting average.

Strikeouts are a concern for me too but I see you put Wallner 4th and he had a higher K rate at an older age at High A and until this year at AAA has had K rates into the 30% range. Rosario is currently around a 26% K rate and with his 14% walk rate that seems pretty workable to me. It very similar to Wallner's numbers at AAA this year. I think Rosario is on that path and might end up slightly better hard to say as he just turned 21 in July. I think he has been more focused on working counts this year and not always worried about hitting HR's. Personally I think his profile looks better than Wallners did at that level and Wallner is at number 4. That is why I think he is bit low on the list.

I think that is a solid list I really only have one major quibble. I think Rosario should probably be in the top 10 for hitters in the system. He is ahead of Schobel for OPS at high A. He is patient enough to have more walks than Schobel as well. Oh, and he is about two years younger. I get Schobel likely is a plus defender and I don't think Rosario ever will be but the hit tool trumps all tools and Rosario has one of the best in the Midwest league. I think you are too low on him.

Dameury Pena was an after thought in INTL free agency and he is far and away the most consistent hitter on that team and the best all around hitter as well. Wish I knew more about him as he looks like he is going to be a good one. The top signs from that draft class have not looked at all this year. At least not compared to last years class.

I think we will know more the closer to the deadline we get. If they are still only two and a half back I don't see them selling him off. With 2 and a half years left he would likely bring quite the haul but he is not a great pitcher and is injured a fair bit. I don't think he is an arm you want to rely on down the stretch but that is just me. If they are keeping Bieber they could certainly afford to deal Civale if the return peaked their interest. He feels like the odd man out at the start on next year if you ask me. If they are going to try and trade Bieber in the offseason it seems a little risky to get rid of Civale as well. They have depth but as they found out this year you need lot's of pitching depth to make it through the season. I still they hang onto him unless they get a pretty good haul.

I just don't see the Twins getting the value they would need to give up the potential for a likely comp pick. I also am not sure Gray is the pitcher a lot of playoff teams would target for the cost in prospects it would likely require. Still anything is possible at the deadline. It would take a top 100 prospect and then some to get deal done though and if paying that the acquiring team would want to know the likelihood of signing him long term. Also as stated by many the Twins FO office would be wise to try to win the division as this team has underperformed and they need something positive to come out of this season. Things are adding up that they have been an underwhelming FO to this point so they need something to hang their hat on even if it is winning the weakest division in baseball. I think Gray helps them do that and if they can't sign him in the offseason then the comp pick helps down the road as well.

First let me say thanks for this awesome draft article! Really wanted someone to put something like this out there. I really liked their draft and was happy it was pitcher heavy. Now lets hope everyone signs and turns out better than expected. I think if you just look at tools and potential Jenkins is the new number 1 in the Twins system. Will his hit tool play in pro ball that seemed to be the only question left in his profile on draft day. Like the OP I am excited to see what he can do. I know high school pitcher picks fail a lot but I do think I like the Soto pick the best in this draft class. He has true number one upside and the system is really low on arms with his kind of potential. I like the Tanner Hall pick a lot as well. If they can work that fastball he could be a mid rotation guy. That felt like a great pick for the 4th round. I am excited about Winokur but having seen Cavaco and Salas I don't know how much you can teach eye at the plate and good contact skills. It seems like you have them and generally have them early or you don't. Granted he hasn't had much for coaching and he has 5 tool potential but those types of picks seem to fail more often than succeed. Let's hope he ends up as good or better than Jenkins. Gonna be fun to follow all these guys,

I would rotate the three of Buxton, Jullien and Polanco. Buxton seems to need rest more often than not and if they really absolutely need him in lineup they can put him in center. Jullien could DH against righties, Buxton against lefties and some righties. Both could be good pinch hit options when not in the starting lineup as well. Polanco is just getting back so he and Jullien could time share second some as well and Polanco could move over to third once in a while as well. I think they can manage it that way for a while and see how it all plays out. Wouldn't hurt to give all three players some time off here and there anyway.