Richie the Rally Goat

JP has publicly stated he wants to extend Buxton, who knows what gets discussed behind closed doors? Pohlads know and understand PR as well as anyone in Minnesota

Awesome! well earned Griffin!

And Pot Luck. I hear Thad is bringing a crock pot of sloppy joes

It always takes two to tango. Asking if you would give Berrios the deal he got from the Blue Jays ignores what the bargaining positions were at the time between Berrios and the Twins. If the Twins and Berrios were ever close on a contract agreement with Berrios, would they have traded him? Probably not. What did Berrios want in the negotiation with the Twins? We don't know, but can guess. Salary commensurate with a top starting pitcher in MLB. Length of contract in excess of 6 years? To test the free agent Market What did the Twins want? again, don't know but can guess Salary perceived as a bargain relative to the mid tier of starting pitchers Length of contract less than 4 years One less rotation spot to fill In neither of those buckets were organizational stability, durability, longevity. I don't believe those were levers valued, after all, those were already held by the parties with Maeda still healthy at the trade deadline. What were the best alternatives for Berrios and the Twins? Berrios - hit free agency, he openly stated he wanted to test free agency, he did not get his best alternative Twins - trade Berrios for prospects - the Twins got their best alternative but did not get their primary wish of getting a bargain for a mid-tier pitcher in Berrios Post trade, Berrios negotiation desires may have changed. He no longer had the stability in his career. He had spent his entire 9 year working career with one company. Now the reality of his fungibility to his employer is real. With that in mind, what might his desires have changed to? Stability Length of Contract in excess of 6 years Salary Commensurate with high end starting pitcher Because they made a deal, the Blue Jays' bargaining desires must have been pretty close to Berrios', maybe something like: Durability Stability Salary Commensurate as a bargain for a high end starting pitcher Lets see with the negotiations upcoming for Free Agents and trades if the Twin's perceived negotiation values have changed

This still doesn’t inspire much confidence in Buxton getting luckier on the health front. I personally want the Twins to extend him, but this team and FO is very risk averse.

Falvine earned this

Buxton and Berrios are two sides of the same coin. For Berrios, he's been one of the most durable starting pitchers in baseball - how long before the luck runs out? Maybe he stays that way and retires at 45 with never having had a major injury. Does that seem likely? For Buxton, he's been the most injury plagued player I've ever watched that tantalized with so much potential. Usually people who get that injured wash out before they ever get to the peak. Will Buxton stay injury plagued? With both, they are 27, at the peak of their physical abilities right now. They will never be stronger, or faster, or have better reaction times than right now. And with both, I think the answer to the aforementioned question is no, what has happened will not continue to happen exactly as it has. Berrios will not continue to be as durable as he has been. Buxton will not continue to be as injury plagued as he has been. I hope Buxton wrings every nickel of guarantee he can out of a GM. He's earned his money and someone should pay that man a huge boatload of cash. I don't think it'll be the Twins, I would be happy if it was, I'd understand if it wasn't. I'd be most upset if Buxton walked away from the Twins for a comp pick.

Sorry, the vitriol part wasn’t you specifically, as much as the thread in general. im with you 100% on the “what if Falvine aren’t the saviors we thought them to be”. I’m starting to wonder that myself

I’ve seen 6 years for Falvine a couple times in this thread. Falvey hire was announced October 2016. It’s been 5 years. 5 years is about the time it takes to develop a minor leaguer in a major leaguer. We are seeing signs of a rebuild looming at a time when we should be seeing some of Falvine’s first draft class start to graduate. In some ways this makes sense, and probably would have saw it sooner, if not for some lightning in a bottle. im not happy about it. I don’t want to watch another rebuild, but if the rebuild can recover quickly instead of the perpetual incompetence that we watched for the last 7 years of Ryan and can really compete for a World Series in a couple years, I might be ok with it. I get the vitriol in regards to the FO. I don’t really share in it. That might change though, I’m not sure how much patience I have…

Depends on what they get, and what they do with it. if it’s a crap-load of lotto tickets and we just wait 5 years for them all to wash out… yuck, no thanks! if some of that crap-load of lotto tickets gets flipped for Chris Bassit and Sean Manaea, I’m ok with it.

Mod note: knock off the semantic revenue argument. While ability to pay is relevant, please bring evidence or drop it. This line of debate is going nowhere

With superstars like Shohei Ohtani & Cody Bellinger playing multiple positions. We think back fondly to LNP and Cesar Tovar, and now get to watch Arraez and Tortuga. It does enhance the game when players just play. I like the Craig Counsell "out-getter" concept.

And you can get by with a 14 man pitching staff if you have fewer fielding specialists and no full time DH. So instead of having a team full of Starters, Relievers, closers, First Basemen, DHs, etc.. .You have "Pitchers" and "Hitters"?

You could say the same for Lynn, as Perez. The Twins saw something and they were right, just early (presumably because of the no spring training). Lynn has been very god for the Rangers White Sox 2019, 7.5 bWAR, 2020 2.1 bWAR and 2021 5.4 bWAR.

This is a great response! I’m ready for some experiments, but really respect and appreciate that you aren’t and spoke of it in those terms.

Not that I “want” the FO to blow it up, but that does seem like a logical direction to take. I tried to put my thoughts to spreadsheet but struggled to get my head wrapped around it. I haven’t reviewed all of the blueprints out there, but the ones I did either met, or exceeded the budget. Did anyone work that scenario out? How did it look?

Lewis certainly has the maturity, work ethic, intelligence and physical tools to become an MLB superstar, over a long enough time horizon. He hasn’t hit a ball in two years, and has 150 plate appearances in AA. learning and development are rarely linear. He’s bound to hit more speed bumps before he makes his Ml debut, and will again hit speed bumps as a rookie. Lewis needs to be protected for Rule 5 this December and will be added to the 40 man Nov 19, 2021 2022 will be a bit of a restart for Lewis, he probably won’t start up at AA, and may struggle in his first return to action. After 2023 he needs to be called up or he becomes a free agent. Would his age and contract status prevent a minor league demotion in 2023/24? Could he get stuck on the bench rather than get an opportunity to work through some mechanics against lesser opponents?

Good process! Potentially accurate results that would make me very sad. It’ll soften the blow when reality sets-in this spring and opening day payroll is 15% lower than ‘21

Great first post! Welcome to TD!

Indeed, the rate is significantly different, in Garver’s more capable bat. Magnitude, however softens the delta as it’s not a 162 games of difference. It’s at most 80 games of Garver. Jeffers and Rortvedt are catching at least half the ‘22 season no matter what.

This was a fun scenario! I imagine a ton of potential heartburn as the disjointed transactions would flow over weeks of time.

He’s a great catcher and elite hitter (for a catcher) but as others have pointed out, time is not on Garver’s side. If you can swing a good starting pitcher for him, do it. Jeffers and Rortvedt will be a step down, but he and Buxton are the only ML assets that will legitimately bring back value, and the step down from Buxton to Celestino (or who ever) is much greater than Garver to Jeffers. while depth at catcher is great, it’s a luxury the Twins cannot afford

Great for Eddie! I hate to be “that guy”…. But I’m going to be regardless…. Context required the Twins didn’t DFA Rosario, they non-tendered him. Cleveland didn’t claim him on waivers, they signed him as a street free agent

I didn’t think of the buyout in terms of the Guaranteed 2022 money, but you are right. 9.25 mil is a bargain, 12 mil is probably what you’d expect to pay, and the 14 due to Sano for 23 doesn’t look very good right now. there might be a lot of players in the NL that can fill the DH role, but are there a ton of Miguel Sano’s on benches of other teams? According to fangraphs his career wRC+ is 118, so above average, maybe solidly above average. I can’t imagine there are 5-10 118 wRC+ hitters on benches across the MLB…