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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Respect is always a must, and rule number 1 here at TD. I agree with you wholeheartedly on that. I didn’t read the article as anything less than respectful. The author shared their experience and used some approachable concepts that I remember from college, but couldn’t apply on my own. agreed, the team plays boring and undisciplined baseball (hard to tell on inspiration) but the modern game is boring with the dominant 3 true outcomes and it takes more than a couple offseasons to change decades of little league, highschool, college minor league coaching based on the the home run prone Selig Ball and transition to the home run oppressed Manfred Ball.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD!
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD!
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    “After swinging the bat for most of January, Alex Kirilloff can still feel wrist soreness, but said his pain level has decreased after undergoing surgery for a second straight season. That should be a good sign after a drastic surgery in which doctors intentionally broke Kirilloff’s right wrist in order to shave down the bone to prevent it from rubbing against other bones. The Twins have Kirilloff on a low-volume program for now to help him increase his range of motion and build grip strength. Currently, he’s taking 50-60 swings a day. Earlier this month, Derek Falvey cautioned Kirilloff could have a slower spring training. “(Soreness is) definitely there,” Kirilloff said. “They cut my bone so there’s definitely some aches and stuff to go along with that, but from a pain standpoint it feels good. … I think they’re expected to go away. I think anytime you break your bone it can take a lot longer than expected to heal. From my understanding, it gets to that certain point where it’s healed enough to do whatever you need to do and then it keeps healing for a while after that.”” https://theathletic.com/4139848/2023/01/30/twinsfest-carlos-correa-pablo-lopez/ aches, decreased, better. Lots of contradictions in that quote. I’m not exactly sure what to take away
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    By wRC+ Gordon was the second best OF on the team last year, by fWAR he was 3rd, and played 138 games. Larnach and Gordon are the two guys I want to see most at the corners of the OF in ST. If they can’t win a spot, so be it, but a 111 wRC+ looks a whole lot more appealing in LF than 85 or 95, even if those we’ll below average numbers come with better fielding.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    This! The few reports I’ve seen in little blurb, hard to trust format, is that Kirilloff is swinging well and on-track for a normal spring training. we don’t know, doesn’t always mean “bad” it means we “don’t know”. I share the same assumptions. If Kepler isn’t traded, Larnach gets a heavy rotation through DH.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    I would call a hearty belly laugh time well spent. great work Stu
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    I believe subscription to Stathead from b-ref can get you access to the underlying data.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    “The only nits I pick are that I like all numbers on a "relative to all other players" stat. A 3.75 FIP in 2023 meant a roughly average pitcher. In 2003, it meant a borderline all-star. Using FIP+ (or minus if you prefer) helps identify performance relative to the league at the time. OOA is a relative stat already, it just was not mentioned as such in your post. I think that is worth pointing out.” @Minny505 i love this post and wanted to unpack this a bit. you caught me in between understanding what happened historically and predicting future outcomes. Well done. FIP predicts ERA but neglects context. FIP+ provides the relative context but isn’t very predictive. (I always prefer the plus (minus seems counterintuitive to me) how do you pull together both the context and predictive without writing massive paragraphs? I’m a lazy typist.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    All 5 WAR seasons, huh?
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    UI matters more than we talk about, but it’s very subjective. agreed, baseball Savant is terrible on mobile. FG’s glossary is a pain in the butt on mobile too. Adds cover it up and it drives me bonkers!
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Why wRC vs b-ref OPS+? The differences aren’t very big on the page
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Inspired by Brad My post there: WAR gets calculated slightly differently depending on your source. I like Fangraphs. FWAR is the shorthand for Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement the link goes to the Fangraphs library where they define the stats. For hitting I like wRC+ because it puts hitters relative to all other hitters (100 as average) by components of run creation. For pitchers FIP is a great stat. It predicts ERA better than historic ERA does by calculating out if a pitched were to experience league average BABIP For fielding I like OAA… …afterwards I started thinking about if the shift and Manfredball might change my thoughts about my preference for WAR and if BWAR might overtake FWAR because BWAR weights fielding/pitchers to a greater extent.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    What’s your go site to for stats? why? Mix and match? what are your favorite stats for specific applications? why?
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    data is a lot like baking a cake. If you like or dislike something you can change the recipe to improve the quality of your metric. also like baking a cake, consistency is critical for a high quality cake.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    WAR gets calculated slightly differently depending on your source. I like Fangraphs. FWAR is the shorthand for Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement the link goes to the Fangraphs library where they define the stats. For hitting I like wRC+ because it puts hitters relative to all other hitters (100 as average) by components of run creation. For pitchers FIP is a great stat. It predicts ERA better than historic ERA does by calculating out if a pitched were to experience league average BABIP For fielding I like OAA
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Buxton, Correa, Gray, Lopez, Miranda
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Rooting for Dobnak. I think there could be a multi-inning reliever/swing man role for him on this team in ‘23. Some of his value is he may not be in the development track like SWR who can come in for 3-4 relief innings make spot starts, in the early part of the season that’s really valuable when not everyone is stretched out and Maeda/Mahle might not be quite 100%
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    And the Pohlads own tv/movie production companies. How long until they crank up VS1 again? I bet it’s already in the works. Joe becoming owner head guy wasn’t a fluke/accident. The Twins saw this coming
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    How many of the 3.5m are Yankees or Dodgers fans out of market? 2.5m? 3? It’s more like 20k per team and 2.5m Yankees fans.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    You’re right. No one cares because most of us can’t watch the Twins anyways. The more it hurts the Twins and the MLB, the more likely a big change for the better
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Had a blast! Great event as usual!
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    My guess is Larnach, Celestino, Gallo, Gordon, Kepler, Wallner
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    While I agree with your opinion that Falvine received great value for Arraez, value is relative. Value is opinion. Opinion is not fact. if the Marlins GM feels Arraez was worth it, the Marlins got value too. after all, it takes two to tango.
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