They have to QO Maeda by 5 days after the World Series. He will absolutely sign that, and so your pitching shopping list is done, 5 days after the WS in a massive over-pay. A massive over-pay to get Maeda on a 1 year isn’t all bad in isolation.
I don’t see Maeda as better than Ryan, Paddack, Ober, so signing him would be only to push Varland to the bullpen/AAA. Here’s the rub, I don’t want a 36 year old on a multi year deal, but they’re also losing out on 5th starter development innings for Varland who’s 25 years old and at a career intersection… unless the FO has already decided that Varland is a reliever and the decision has been made already. If he’s a reliever, then a 3rd to 5th starter makes sense because the next crop isn’t pushing the MLB roster quite yet.
I don’t think the FO has decided Varland is a reliever, so I think they should aim higher or roll with what they got,