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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    it’s not supposed to be equitable, it’s supposed to a merit bonus for pre-arb players
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    You do… I also believe you put up more realistic trade proposals than Cole Sands for Whit Merrifield and George Springer
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    A decade of 40 man roster spots netted 7 players developed, one of which was great, a couple were good, 4 of which were fodder for other teams, out of 400 roster spots and zero free agent spending. 1.7% isn’t technically zero, but it’s effectively zero
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Me too!
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    In other news, my sources tell me “water is wet”. Shocking turn of events indeed
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Meanwhile leaving two swing men on the bench to rot.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Anybody want a peanut?
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    William Safire was a white house speech writer. If we’re getting this far down the technicality rabbit hole in early December, I shudder to think what we’ll be like come Winter Meltdown
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    This is where I’m at too. Vázquez is a miss, but a small one. Dobnak is couch cushion money. Correa still provided 1.4 WAR with plantar fasciitis and there’s no reason to believe he’s unraveling health wise. Buxton to me is the only real miss, but is that really a miss? He signed a low base, high incentive contract because of his injury history. If he had a strong health history, that contract would have been much closer to Correa territory, and that would have colored the forward look on Buxton’s contract much more unfavorable. i think what we learned from the article is the Twins haven’t made many mistakes
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    It needs to be a cross stitch courtesy of flosscross.com
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, I have no idea either. That’s why cost is so hard to discuss like this.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    A 30 share of 5 nights a week for 27 weeks, plus 1 day per week for 27 weeks. That’s lotta eyeballs. No matter what, their revenue isn’t dropping $50m, and they know it.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Broadcast TV would still pay the Twins to broadcast the games. The owners of Judge Judy get paid to air the program in syndicate. the question is what’s the Twins worth to whatever Tv station that wants to air them. Half the difference should be the payroll difference (up or down)
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins already produce the broadcast, that’s not new cost. The MLB already distributes via streaming, that’s not entirely new cost. I admit, there might be some new distribution cost… but I don’t think new costs are very high. We don’t know the costs in the model, but Bally/Diamond only shouldered the cost of distribution in a cable tv network, and MLB shouldered the streaming distribution cost. No cable, no cable cost. Yes cable/broadcast, then there’s something, but wouldn’t you have a distribution partner for that who gets a cut? I guess I don’t really care what Bally’s costs were.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    1,000,000% agreed!
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Falvey’s statement of the payroll situation sounds just like an annual earnings projection for a publicly traded company. The Street expects earnings to be 150M. The company expects earnings to be 145 to 150m, but if you deliver 147, the stock price will tank even though it’s only a 2% miss, so you sand bag it to 135 to 140 and try to spin looking like a hero at 147. they have a revenue deficit now, have a clear line to recover it, but need to manage cash by reducing cost in the event revenue comes in lower than expected. with the number of teams in the same boat, the optimism from Falvey’s side is that there will be a lot of high quality tier 2 free agents and trades available late in the offseason because not everyone will have buttoned up their TV contracts.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think you are right on the Tony O. The T looks really similar
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Maybe he can do it, but he’s 4” shorter than Buck or AK. Being able to stretch that wingspan out is a big advantage. He’s shown more consistent hitting than either Buck or AK, so maybe it would work. he’s one of the most tradeable MLB assets the Twins have, so in my mind he’s already traded. Too soon for that mindset!
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Farmer is a prototypical utility infielder. He’s the best fielder at 2B and 3B, and a very good SS, who hits acceptably off the bench. Polanco and Castro dont have the same skills, and were the Twins to trade/DFA Farmer, they’d still need a quality fielding utility infielder. Also, Farmer fetched a 26 year old minor league pitcher with a career 4.33 ERA and had to be added to the 40 to be protected from rule 5. Is the trade return likely to be better than that? Or worse with a Farmer’s higher salary and less control? We can debate how good of a second baseman Polanco and Julien are, but the two of them are both bat-first 2Bs. Neither have shown capability outside of 2B and DH. Polanco should command a much better return than Farmer, and combined with a prospect could return MLB starting pitching. my feeling is that combined with the 40 man requirements and the self imposed budget constraint, Polanco makes the most sense in a trade. edit to add, I don’t want the team to “shed payroll”, but I do want them to get better without emptying the farm. I think Polanco can be “easily” replaced and provide value in trade.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Julien was empirically better than Polanco last year and more available. Polanco’s value to return value in trade diminishes once the season starts and again after the trade deadline. 2 years of relatively cheap control is more valuable than 1.5 or 1.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Do they need depth? Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro, currently on the 40 who all play 3rd and/or 2nd, plus Lee and Martin knockin’ on the door. I concede Miranda is a question, you still have 5 guys for two positions
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    You keep him for the same reason you trade him. Give value to get value.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’m starting to lean this way. If Martin, Kiersey or Buxton ends up being the every day CF by May, I’d be ok rolling with Castro to start the season. If Martin and Kiersey arent ready and Buxton is still injured, I’m not sure I want Kiermaier if it takes a 3 year deal to sign him. I was once on the “No such thing as bad one year deal” wagon, until Gallo, but 3 years… lots of bad 3 year deals!
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed. The Arraez for Lopez trade almost never happens, but that’s what the Twins would likely want to duplicate
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    If all you care about is your eye test, and there’s no room for debate, then why post at all? Keep shouting into the void
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