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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    A 30 share of 5 nights a week for 27 weeks, plus 1 day per week for 27 weeks. That’s lotta eyeballs. No matter what, their revenue isn’t dropping $50m, and they know it.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Broadcast TV would still pay the Twins to broadcast the games. The owners of Judge Judy get paid to air the program in syndicate. the question is what’s the Twins worth to whatever Tv station that wants to air them. Half the difference should be the payroll difference (up or down)
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins already produce the broadcast, that’s not new cost. The MLB already distributes via streaming, that’s not entirely new cost. I admit, there might be some new distribution cost… but I don’t think new costs are very high. We don’t know the costs in the model, but Bally/Diamond only shouldered the cost of distribution in a cable tv network, and MLB shouldered the streaming distribution cost. No cable, no cable cost. Yes cable/broadcast, then there’s something, but wouldn’t you have a distribution partner for that who gets a cut? I guess I don’t really care what Bally’s costs were.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    1,000,000% agreed!
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Falvey’s statement of the payroll situation sounds just like an annual earnings projection for a publicly traded company. The Street expects earnings to be 150M. The company expects earnings to be 145 to 150m, but if you deliver 147, the stock price will tank even though it’s only a 2% miss, so you sand bag it to 135 to 140 and try to spin looking like a hero at 147. they have a revenue deficit now, have a clear line to recover it, but need to manage cash by reducing cost in the event revenue comes in lower than expected. with the number of teams in the same boat, the optimism from Falvey’s side is that there will be a lot of high quality tier 2 free agents and trades available late in the offseason because not everyone will have buttoned up their TV contracts.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think you are right on the Tony O. The T looks really similar
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Maybe he can do it, but he’s 4” shorter than Buck or AK. Being able to stretch that wingspan out is a big advantage. He’s shown more consistent hitting than either Buck or AK, so maybe it would work. he’s one of the most tradeable MLB assets the Twins have, so in my mind he’s already traded. Too soon for that mindset!
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Farmer is a prototypical utility infielder. He’s the best fielder at 2B and 3B, and a very good SS, who hits acceptably off the bench. Polanco and Castro dont have the same skills, and were the Twins to trade/DFA Farmer, they’d still need a quality fielding utility infielder. Also, Farmer fetched a 26 year old minor league pitcher with a career 4.33 ERA and had to be added to the 40 to be protected from rule 5. Is the trade return likely to be better than that? Or worse with a Farmer’s higher salary and less control? We can debate how good of a second baseman Polanco and Julien are, but the two of them are both bat-first 2Bs. Neither have shown capability outside of 2B and DH. Polanco should command a much better return than Farmer, and combined with a prospect could return MLB starting pitching. my feeling is that combined with the 40 man requirements and the self imposed budget constraint, Polanco makes the most sense in a trade. edit to add, I don’t want the team to “shed payroll”, but I do want them to get better without emptying the farm. I think Polanco can be “easily” replaced and provide value in trade.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Julien was empirically better than Polanco last year and more available. Polanco’s value to return value in trade diminishes once the season starts and again after the trade deadline. 2 years of relatively cheap control is more valuable than 1.5 or 1.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Do they need depth? Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro, currently on the 40 who all play 3rd and/or 2nd, plus Lee and Martin knockin’ on the door. I concede Miranda is a question, you still have 5 guys for two positions
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    You keep him for the same reason you trade him. Give value to get value.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’m starting to lean this way. If Martin, Kiersey or Buxton ends up being the every day CF by May, I’d be ok rolling with Castro to start the season. If Martin and Kiersey arent ready and Buxton is still injured, I’m not sure I want Kiermaier if it takes a 3 year deal to sign him. I was once on the “No such thing as bad one year deal” wagon, until Gallo, but 3 years… lots of bad 3 year deals!
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed. The Arraez for Lopez trade almost never happens, but that’s what the Twins would likely want to duplicate
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    If all you care about is your eye test, and there’s no room for debate, then why post at all? Keep shouting into the void
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    That’s why you trade him. He’s a great hitter and cheap, and you already have his replacement with 100 games of experience. There’s no better time than now
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Ahem
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    The FO has made mention of trading hitting depth for pitching. Kepler’s 10M contract might have a good return for pitching, moving AK to LF and Wallner to RF.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    The murder podcast really resonated with my children
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Traded Kepler for minor leaguers Keirmaier 1 year 9 mil Erod 2 years 38m Tried to address both rotation and CF. Going outside the box in trying Buxton at 1b i realistically don’t think Payroll will exceed 140m C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) 1B: Byron Buxton ($15.0M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) CF: Kevin Kiermaier ($9.0M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Eduardo Rodriguez ($19.0M) SP4: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP5: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Matt Canterino ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 10.39% under budget
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    4 starter rotation?
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    You want this deleted?
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yeah, after I posted, that thought crossed my mind. Realistically it might be Martin out of the chute anyways
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Montgomery 4 years $100m DFA Alcala C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Christian Vázquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Jordan Montgomery ($25.0M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP4: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP5: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Matt Canterino ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 5.72% under budget
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Hit the hamburger menu in the top right then twins resources
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yes @Brock Beauchampis still involved in TD.
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