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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    looking at WAR, Sonny’s 184 innings bringing 5.3 WAR is a high bar to clear, and it is. Ryan pitched 161, Ober pitched 144. Both could feasibly flirt with 180 innings, and both with top 30 rate stats. That 1.07 WHIP is elite. 5.79 K/BB is fantastic. how much does Paddack, Varland and DeSclafani drop off? Paddack is projected for 2ish WAR 120 innings, 1.21 WHIP, improving over Kenta Varland is projected 119 innings and 1.2 WAR 1.27 WHIP, serviceable to very good 5th starter. If DeSclafani doesn’t have to pitch much… it’s probably going to be another very good pitching season. big if… but I’m bought in
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Bailey Ober replaces Sonny Gray’s likely output. Last year he put up a 1.07 whip with 25% k rate, 5% bb rate for 2.4 fWAR. 2022 was similar rate stats but shortened. He appears healthy and if he can stay that way, he should surpass 3 fWAR and be a top 20 starting pitcher in ‘24. i think MLR put up the chart on the Twins having the projected best AL pitching staff for ‘24 and 4th in MLB and I believe it.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    If Gordon is on his last leg with the Twins (I agree), what value does he bring in trade when everybody else can just wait for him to hit the waiver wire?
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    The FO has made it a point to raise the floor in the hitting department. Kyle Farmer is an example of that working well, a backstop to re-signing Correa and a very competent hitter and fielder at multiple positions who did just that as a primarily SS where the bar for hitting is lower and Farmer played a backup role. Gallo is prime example of failure in that attempt. There’s 5 guys in triple A that can put up .700 OPS for league minimum and play as good of if not better fielding than Gallo. And they stuck with him too long. they’re both .700 OPS guys, there’s going to be successes and failures, and the part that is hard is knowing when to give up the ghost.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    and here I was excited for our first baseman at the end of a Friday night game to trot out to a stage in the CF batters eye and rip off some delicious licks playing 1999’s smash hit “Smooth”
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    I had wiped Miranda from my memory for some reason! How quickly I forgot! Miranda is likely the “Larnach” for Santana. His 57 wRC+ last year gives a pretty low floor but his career is around 102 and his projections are all around 100. Santana for his career is 116, but his projection is 100, and his last several years have been 100 or below. His floor is higher than Miranda’s, but he doesn’t raise the bar. i don’t really get the Santana signing. Again I don’t hate it either, he at least brings an approach that Gallo didn’t, but it feels like spending for the sake of spending, without actually improving the lineup.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Good point on Yunior. i think you are weighting the coaching aspect very heavily, and considering Popkins has 4 years of professional hitting coach experience compared with Santana’s zero, it’s a bit of a stretch. I’m not saying there’s zero coaching done by Santana, but his impact will be direct on the baseball
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    The fallback option to Kepler, was realistically Trevor Larnach. For as much grief as Larnach gets on the boards, his career 96 wRC+ isn’t vastly different than Kepler’s 103, for less than 1/10th the price and the potential to develop a better player, or at the least have another guy with options to shuttle. who is Santana’s Larnach? Chris Williams?
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    100% agreed! Also Kepler is the example of why they hang on too long. 25% of our sample turned their season around to become a net positive on the season. 25% has to be better odds than some/many/most of the individual minor league roster churn moves available to be made at a given time
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yes
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    True, but also need a strong and deep bullpen regardless of DeScalfini. last year we watched miscast Sands, Winder, and Headrick all collect dust on the roster (occasionally at the same time) for 5 days then end up being thrust into leverage out of necessity. If they want to really compete, they can only have one swing man, or none.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    I gotta think Funderburk is dang close to a lock. Desclafini slated for a BP role too? He’s just as likely as Varland
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    I wonder if DeSclafini starts the season in the rotation pushing Varland to AAA, or if he’s a swing man and pushes Sands and or Winder out. having DeSclafini in the rotation and Varland in AAA gives the a ton of Depth as both Raya and Festa could/should give some big league innings this year, hopefully successful big league innings.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    You don’t think that ‘23 would have been a better team had the better hitters received more plate appearances?
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    I want Ryan and Luzardo, not either/or
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Gallo for Santana swap seems like a neutral swap. At 5m vs 11, more likely to see a bench role. I hated the Gallo signing, but I hate this one less. The lineup feels smushed together with several JAGs. It worked last year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ what do I know?
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Is the Polanco trade or Santana signing “significant”. Has Baldelli been vindicated? Might there be more moves coming?
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Inflation effects us all
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    FTFY
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Thanks for clarifying!
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    The other articles about this is the 100m is only for the 5ish teams that Diamond already has streaming rights for. Twins will not be included in that deal.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think this signals 1) the FO believes Joe Ryan is going to be closer to ‘22 than his injury hobbled ‘23 2) Bailey Ober’s 7th in MLB ranked WHIP is real and he’s a lot better pitcher than a back of the rotation type 3) Paddack is healthy and should slot strong as a mid rotation type starter but at the 5th spot to manage his innings. 4) Pablo Lopez wasn’t a mirage last year 5) The FO values depth in the rotation (which there isn’t much past Varland to start the season)
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    I like both!
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Breaking News!: replacing a first ballot hall of famer who also plays the sports most grueling fielding position is hard! in other breaking news: water is wet!
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    I have all the feels! Congrats Joe on a most deserved selection!
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