Woof Bronzer

Come on. The poster is making a point. The fact that the Twins are paying $30 mil in 2023 for Simmons/Adiranza level production is eye opening. He's not saying Correa's career is comparable to either of them. Surely you understand this.

So one WAR has Arraez as twice as valuable as Lopez, the other has Lopez slightly more valuable than Arraez? I appreciate what WAR tries to do but I don't think it's helpful when they tell drastically different stories.

For a front office that is very vocal in its love of analytics, they have a weird habit of disregarding all statistics for certain players and just thinking the guy will magically turn it around once they breathe in the golden air of One Twins Way. Another area where "the process" is flawed and inconsistent at best.

Great post. I guess the only thing I'll add is that I don't think "are there worse MLB GMs" should be a factor into whether or not Falvine goes. But you're right, as much as I'm ready to move on from Falvine (have been for a while), it could be worse.

Yeah good points. "Fire 'em all" is the easiest thing to say for a fan. I do think Falvine have been given a long leash and the results just haven't been there - it's great that they incorporated analytics into the process, but as a fan I care about results. Not only have there been 0 playoff wins, things have been trending downward the past couple seasons. Here's how I tend to think of it: there are 30 MLB GM jobs on planet Earth. Is Falvey one of the 30 best people in the world at running a ball club? Personally I don't really see anything in his performance to suggest that's the case. But again, easy for me to say.

By this logic no team would every fire anyone, ever. Yes, the next regime MIGHT not be successful. We KNOW the current one has not been. Falvey said when he was hired that the easily measurable goal was to build a sustained championship organization. Do you think he has succeeded?

This organization has won 1 playoff series in 30 years. The sky has already fallen.

Well, calling oneself the Christian Dior of baseball players doesn't strike me as particularly humble. It's one thing if you put up the numbers to back it up, but saying that and then performing like a black market knockoff brand doesn't really work for me. Plus, recall that Correa openly advocated for the J Lopez trade, took it upon himself to mentor Miranda, stanned for Popkins, and convinced Buxton to DH. Given how poorly all of those things look now, it would appear Carlos' baseball expertise isn't at the level he seems to think it is. Again I think he needs to just focus on his own performance, which has been awful. And yeah, padding stats in meaningless games, without any pressure, doesn't move the needle for me. Joey Gallo has a handful of home runs this year; almost none of them have been impactful in any way. Leaders come through when it counts. Like I said I knew this wouldn't be a popular opinion because it's something not easily quantified by analytics. Sounds like we just agree to disagree.

If I recall correctly he was terrible in July/August last year when the Twins had a chance to pull away from Cleveland. A great September doesn't mean much when the team is already out of it. I think 22 was a down year for him and 23 is a further decline. Not good. I have a sinking feeling the SF/NYM medical staffs saw this coming.... This will drive many folks crazy, but I think Carlos would benefit from a healthy dose of humility, and a refocus on being a productive baseball player rather than the team captain/assistant GM he seems to have anointed himself as.

I suspect this is who Buxton is going to be the rest of his career. He's not going to get magically healthier as he ages. My belief is the Twins made the calculated decision that playing the field will further shorten his career, and he's done playing the field (as a Twin, at least). What I don't understand - and this isn't just a Buxton thing - is whether he has been instructed by the organization to abandon his "hit" tool in favor of swinging out of his shoes every single time. If so, yet another indictment of the FO's faulty offensive philosophy. If not...is anyone in the organization telling him it aint working? What adjustments are being made in his approach? This is where I think Rocco's hands-off, "let players do whatever they feel is best" attitude really shows its flaws. Sometimes players need to be instructed - "managed", if you will - especially if a player is actively hurting the team with his chosen approach.

The Twins really don't scare the Guardians?

You keep answering a question I didn't ask. You think Ks are fine; I get it (and hey, the Twins agree with you!). We just disagree.

Agreed - much more to it than that.

Some interesting thoughts here, I think I understand what you are saying. However I think it's pretty clear that the team has directed the players to swing for the fences and not worry about Ks. There are many, many analytics guys and writers out there who have been banging the "Ks are just another out" drum for a while. This is just factually untrue, and emblematic to me of an extreme analytics approach that is hurting this franchise the same way a total lack of analytics hurt the franchise at the end of the Ryan era. Very few players can hit enough home runs to outweigh huge K rates, and this is exacerbated when the lineup is devoid of guys who can get on base and turn those solo HRs into 2 or 3 run shots. I don't agree with the notion that comparing Ks to balls in play is unfair when considering if Ks are just another out. There are a few at bat outcomes available; Ks are definitely, without question, the worst. I don't think hitters are totally in control of whether they hit a liner or a grounder; the point is simply that putting the ball in play results in a hit 25-30% of the time, unquestionably a better result for the team than striking out. Not to mention the fact that say on an 0-2 count hitters should take a different approach than at 0-0 - swinging for the fences in that scenario is just not smart hitting. The fact is not every player in a lineup can mash enough to make the extreme "grip it and rip it" philosophy successful. 2019 proves this - it takes a juiced ball and career years out of a half dozen guys to make it work, and even then it didn't translate to the playoffs. You seem to be saying approaches are different between at bats, players, scenarios, etc - I think what you are getting at is "situational hitting". My point is I don't see much evidence that the Twins teach or emphasize situational hitting,I think they are all in on "grip it and rip it, no matter the situation" and that's a huge problem here. Thanks for the good discussion!

The Twins are 36-45 against teams other than the Royals.

If after 6 years under Falvine the "expectation" was a .500 team in the putrid Central, then yes, Total System Failure indeed. It's ok as a fan to dream bigger than ".500 ball" and I'm not interested in giving the FO a pass because their failure to adequately address the roster in the offseason led to downgraded preseason predictions.

I am fascinated to learn where you are going with this.

Of course I'm using generalities but this is a good point. A strikeout can happen on any at bat; GIDPs require specialized situations and are therefore relatively rare. All the more reason why excusing strikeouts because GIDPs exist is craziness.

If a hitter is not going to the plate trying to put the ball in play then I don't know what baseball is. What's the point of a swing then? Seriously, what are they doing up there then? Working on their tan?

100%. If Ks were truly just a type of out, and teams wanted to induce GIDPs, they'd just fill up their staff with the Zack Grienkes of the world out there and force teams to put the ball in play.

I'm not asking about the outcome of a ball in play. I'm asking about the outcome of an at-bat. The Twins have grounded into 63 dps and have 708 hits. So by putting the ball in play they are 10x more likely to get a hit vs a dp. They've also struck out 916 times. So the team has 7x more outs via K than via GIDP. This narrative that strikeouts are preferable to putting the ball in play, on the off chance you ground into a dp, needs to stop. It's factually false. I truly cannot understand how someone can watch the 2023 Twins and say, yep, Ks are fine, just a type of out.

That Falvey quote seems to confirm what I have long suspected: he doesn't really see a problem here. Or rather, the problem is bad luck and a couple uncharacteristic poor performances (setting aside the fact Gallo, Kepler, and others are performing exactly to their stats.) This is "process is more important than results" in the extreme. 2.5 years of this and "nothing to see here". Truly, truly insane. We cannot afford to hold on to this FO much longer. They are quite simply running this franchise into the ground. I for one will not be investing a penny in this club until the FO is gone. I hold no illusion that it will happen mid season, but the housecleaning needs to happen day 1 of the offseason so the long difficult work of rebuilding this franchise can begin. I am very nervous about the trade deadline further setting the franchise back. If there's a silver lining it sure doesn't feel like Falvine thinks their job is on the line here so perhaps they'll be less inclined to make desperate short-term-only moves.

-moving the goalposts -dismissing any information that doesn't fit your narrative -attacking the people whose opinions you disagree with instead of the opinion -implying the entire world agrees with your opinion I've got to hand it to you, you are the bad faith internet troll equivalent of a 5-tool prospect. You can do it all!

I already gave you one! As I said, it appears you've done what you accuse your opponents of doing: not reading my post. It was 3 sentences long, one of which was the quote. Again, congrats.

Let's start with the first line of your post: Did you even bother to read their original post? it's that y'all refuse to engage with the conversation honestly. the clowns in this thread it's clear what you're really attempting to accomplish is pedantry or anti-intellectualism. I just can't figure out why you would waste your time with them There's more, shall I continue?