Woof Bronzer

Thanks. Shockingly this hasn't been reported by our intrepid local media. What a baffling, classless decision. Very surprised the Twins aren't taking more heat for this.

Agree. Besides, this is all so confusing, because for years the Twins used their meager tv deal as an excuse for not being able to compete financially. It's extraordinarily rich to now hear them suggest we can't compete financially without such a bountiful deal.

Is this true? I cannot imagine why the Twins would push him out, he seems like the same ol Dick he's always been so it's not like he's losing a step. Fans seem to love him too. Is there any reporting on this?

Jurickson Profar's "value" this year was $-15 mil. Does this mean he should have paid the club 15 million bucks? Has this ever happened in the history of the sport? If not, why, again, do you think this statistic has any particular meaning? It's simply a WAR multiplier. Also WAR doesn't represent "reality" or "performance" either...topic for another day...

The value calculation is WAR x a coefficient that FanGraphs chooses. It spits out the same exact order of results as WAR. The "value" has nothing to do with realistic market values or what teams will pay someone. Don't know how to break it to you but Acuna (or anyone else) aint getting $66m/year as a free agent. I get that you are looking for some statistic that proves how great Correa is, but hopefully you know it's not rooted in anything resembling reality or meaning.

Fangraphs has him at $9.1M in value. No idea where you are getting $34.8M. But those numbers are meaningless. It has Acuna worth $66m, or about double the most annual salary anyone in the league has ever been paid. A fantasy. All the valuations are is WAR x a $/WAR that they come up with. So the WAR leaderboard is the exact same as the "value" leaderboard. Correa had 1.1 WAR, good for 107th in the league. He was the 11th highest paid player in the league. Drastically overpaid is an understatement.

I think Twins fans really WANT Correa to be great given the unprecedented contract. No one could argue he was having a good year at the plate so fans latched on to his defense as otherworldly. Nobody wants the guy to be a bust. For what it's worth I think Correa is simply on the down slope of his career. He's not exactly young anymore and he has a lot of innings on his body. But I still think he'll have a better year next year if he can make some adjustments to his approach at the plate. And stays healthy.

I can only hope Boston says "Bring Rocco along as well and we've got a deal" :)

Good points. Definitely a distinction. Working the count, drawing walks, etc is different than just swinging as hard as humanly possible and hoping you somehow "pulverize" an 0-2 pitch. If you listen to Falvey though he's clearly in the 2nd camp, which doesn't give me any optimism that things will improve.

Do you disagree with the OBP formula? I am confused what you want me to do about it. Looks like Cincy had an above average BABIP and Cleveland had a below average BABIP. And Cincy had above average walk rates and Cleveland had below average walk rates. So, exactly what I said above. Again, there are only so many variables that go into OBP.

The rationalizing strikeouts thing is so odd, and it's done in bad faith. The poster was saying a K is better than grounding into a double play, but obviously players don't choose to hit into a double play when they swing the bat. Putting the ball in play will result in getting on base 30% of the time. If we care about analytics and numbers and data there is no rationalizing for favoring strikeouts to putting the ball in play. The Twins had 10x the outs by strikeout as by double play. If we're doing the silly bad faith rationalizing I'll say that hitting a HR is always beneficial to a K....by far. Can't hit an HR if you strikeout!

OBP is quite literally a measure of how successful hitters are at avoiding strikeouts. You cannot get on base by striking out. (Technically I suppose you can on a passed ball.) OBP punishes strikeouts. Plate appearances have 3 outcomes: K, BB, or putting the ball in play. OBP gives you credit for the latter 2 outcomes. How do you raise your OBP? By reducing the Ks (which will in turn increase BBs or balls in play); by having a higher BABIP; I suppose one could increase BBs by not putting pitches outside the zone in play...that's about it. This isn't an opinion, it's just what OBP does.

You can't say strikeouts are great for pitchers but "less bad" for hitters. There is no logic in that.

I agree with you, because OBP is directly correlated to strikeouts. The surest way to increase your OBP is to reduce strikeouts. If for some reason it makes you feel better to say "focus on OBP" vs "focus on cutting down on strikeouts", fine, but you are saying the same exact thing.

Ok, so then they should get rid of all the velocity guys on their pitching staff, and replace them with cheap pitch to contact guys, because focusing on strikeouts is wrong. Am I following the logic correctly?

You're saying it doesn't matter what the count is, the odds of getting a good pitch to hit is all the same? Hot take.

Here we go with the fallacy that "in order to get extra base hits we must strike out a ton." Houston has struck out less than any team in baseball over the past 5-10 years. Ask them if they've had trouble scoring runs as a result. If there is a direct correlation between increased Ks and increased XBHs, I'd love to see it! For example, since the Twins struck out more times than any team in history, it would follow that they had more XBH's than any team in history too, right? Did that happen?

They're taught that - just like MLB hitters were taught that for over 100 years - because with 2 strikes, behind in the count, your odds of getting a pitch to hit are diminished. Making adjustments in order to put the ball in play is simply playing the odds. Which is what I thought analytics were all about.

Good point. I guess I'd rather they make adjustments while refusing to acknowledge past mistakes, than refusing to make adjustments altogether. We can only hope.

Little leaguers are taught, with 2 strikes, to choke up, go the other way, protect the plate, etc. We are at a point in the sport where little league teams have better fundamentals and a better overall understanding of baseball than certain professional teams.

"I really do not think it should be something we focus on," emphasized Baldelli. "Baserunners and hitting balls hard is really what we did. We did a pretty good job of executing and making decisions at the plate, things like that. We can talk, probably later on, maybe not today, about different adjustments we can make, that actually are a topic. Because "not striking out" is just a blanket statement that is not constructive. Not striking out is not going to lead us to more effective run-scoring opportunities." And this is why I have little hope for the future as long as this leadership group is in charge. This is a man who gets paid to know baseball; he does not understand that by definition, not striking out can ONLY lead you to more effective run-scoring opportunities - walking or putting the ball in play are both net-positive outcomes for an at bat. And here he is, unwilling to question the conventional wisdom he's been told to believe, unwilling to do an honest appraisal of what worked this year and what didn't, unwilling to consider if maybe he doesn't have all the answers, maybe he made some mistakes this year... What's mattered most is power, the ability to hit for power. The reality is that striking out less this postseason has not led to more wins. In fact, you're below .500 in that sense. That's a fact, right? Uh, no Derek, it's not. What is he talking about? The Twins struck out 52 times to the Stros 37 and lost 3-1. If you need to lie to support your case, maybe it's time to open yourself up to the possibility that maybe it's not the strongest case to be made. And the utter arrogance on display here: "that's a fact, right?" Falvey and Baldelli seem to be under the, again, mistaken understanding that you must strike out a ton in order to hit for power. Have they ever stopped to consider if it's a coincidence that Houston has led the league in k% over the last 7 years, has made the ALCS every one of those years, and still manages to hit for power? For guys that like to fashion themselves analytics geniuses, they don't seem to understand the analytics of an at bat. Your chances of a home run when behind in the count are so low. Especially 0-2. Why not adjust with 2 strikes? It's clear from these comments that this idea, taught to little leaguers, never occurred to anyone on the Twins. Hitting for power is great; swinging out of your shoes when you're down 0-2 is just stupid and flies in the face of the "analytics" these guys flaunt. I just cannot get over the arrogance of these guys coming off a season where they set a MLB record for strikeouts and ended the season with 6 straight Ks.

Winning 87 games in the worst division in league history is award worthy? Man, Twins fans need to set the bar just a shade higher. I get that this year was better than the last 2 but my goodness, we were the 7th best team in the AL! We don't need to crown Rocco for this "accomplishment".

"forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn't yet 30" This is such an odd thing to say about a guy who over his career has missed as many games as he's played and is coming off a season when he very clearly could not rebound from injury.

True. We may as well give up, we'll never beat them. Let's keep aiming for AL Central titles and call it a day!

Yeah trying not to overreact to the Astros series, but it's not like we've never seen the lineup dry up like that before - that's who they were for half the season or more. And I just can't see Wallner and Jeffers ever being elite. I'd argue it's really difficult to be an "elite" hitter as an HR or bust guy. Not impossible, but difficult. I'd argue that we do have an elite hitter in Lewis though. And Julien has earned the opportunity to see if can become one too. I'd love to see him get some at bats against lefties next year.