Hawkeye Bean Counter

Noah Miller.

56-59 2nd straight loss to Royals Lottery oddss 1st pick. 1.28% Top 6 12.6%. updated playoff odds tomorrow but below 25%. Disappointing even with a strong start from Kremer.

Well dang it my win prediction didn’t pay off but it wasn’t Kremer fault. Looks like it’s another negative update to post deadline record tracker.

Say what you will I’m generally pretty spot on with my takes.

Yes. I think with how Houston is playing he has an outside chance at being the starting SS to start the season if not if he has a strong performance in AAA up by June if no lockout.

This is the type of outing he will give us. 5-7 innings, can avoid the crooked inning and the home runs. If so a solid inning eating starting pitcher that will give us a chance to win in over 2/3rds of his starts.

I think Lee can have an above average bat. With Houston and Culpepper manning short I’m not sure we need Kreidler. However that’s not to say he has impressed me. Maybe he becomes our new Clemens. I’m not willing to shut that door yet.

I think he will settle into a decent utility player. 2nd 3rd maybe 1st.

Actually the 1st half of the season they massively outproduced with RISP. Now it just seems a regression to the mean.

Dang it caratini.

Everything going right for Lewis right now. Playing team ball and still got a hit.

Are we liking Kremer yet?

@Tom Froemming updated his prospect rankings after the trade deadline. Pretty good list overall. A little light on some of new draft prospects. I would likely have burns in late 20’s early 30’s. Also I know only few games, but Teel, Turner, Lane and Scholvin all look like they belong in A ball. Turner would be around 30 for me, Teel mid 30’s and the other 2 in the 40’s.

It’s 45 games. So yes you were right. Still not the primary point.

Less than 60 games I believe he will still be a rookie.

3 teams - 2 with high odds at World Series. Cleveland doesn’t count because he’s already locked out.

He was also already on their 40 man roster because he was an international prospect. So he will be locked out from coaches no matter what next year if a lockout occurs.

40 Man Mike. Come on figure it out. Its not that difficult. We have already discussed this. I don't know why this is bothering you so much. Some rookies will come up. Zoll and Tom said they would. The question is who so we will wait to see who it is.

Someone quoted me about not bringing the rookies up but its gone now. Zoll and Tom have both said they will bring rookies up from AAA. What they haven't clarified is will it be Jenkins and Culpepper or will it be of the group of Gonzalez, Mendez and Rodriguez who are already on the 40 man. You have to trust and follow what Zoll and Tom say. They made that pretty clear ridiculing the media on trading of Jeffers.

Its Det, Brewers and NY. Brewers and NYY both look like they have legitimate reasons why. Detroit likely did it to offset fan upset over the Skubal trade. I just wouldn't ridicule other management for not doing it when it doesn't appear to be a mainstream thing right now. Maybe the calculus changes. Who knows. Red Sox coming out and saying they aren't putting the stress on Arias seems to be them tipping their hand they aren't bringing him up this year.

Kremer's savant page still looks good. The 3 HR/9 is statistically as likely to remain at that level as the Twins batting average was with RISP. He could be injured, He could be toast, but then I would have thought the Savant page would be showing that. Even still with Ryan having a dead arm its not like I am making a huge statement by saying he could be our 2nd best SP. We will see.

There is a big jump from FCL to A ball. He is still young and he has a strong athletic build. I still think he was a 25-30 prospect in our system, but it was with a high ceiling. When thinking about Amick or Agbayani. Neither of those have a high ceiling. They may have a decent season or two, but at best they are a 10 WAR player over their first 6 years of playing and the odds of that are small. I am just glad it was him and not Fragoza.

We will get a win tonight is my guess.

As to spending more money, I think he will, but lets be clear he also said he was going to sign more help for the bullpen in free agency and I think we had already signed Rogers. I think the only real addition before the season was Banda for international money. Here is where I am at with Pohlad and Zoll- He came in with big boy pants and effectively laid down the law with Falvey and Falvey said I don't have to deal with this. I think Tom quickly realized he may have pushed too hard initially and had a bigger learning curve than he realized. Do I think Zoll is ok at his job. Yes I think he is Ok. I don't think he is great, I think he is a rubber stamper for Tom and will do whatever it is to keep a job. I did have to laugh at Zoll's rebuke to the writers saying they kept saying the Twins had to trade Jeffers. Trading Jeffers was likely the smart move, but yes just because they said it didn't mean that Zoll and Falvey had to do it. Just like Tom Pohlad I think Zoll has more of a short term view horizon and its merely to keep Tom happy in the meantime. I really don't think its in the organizations best interest. So thats the negative. Here's the positives - Yes, Tom may say some things that aren't quite right or way to optimistic. I bet he regrets the "go big or go home" quote. But for the most part if you take his statement of the big picture I think he is honest. I think he has developed a good working relationship with Zoll, Shelton and the Players. He is definitely more accessible and available to the players. I do think that is a significant improvement and the Trust has improved from the team and the front office. I do think he is learning on the job. He is actively trying to figure things out so I will give him credit for that. I think he is an owner representative that will get involved with signings and ect. Thats a good and bad thing in my opinion. I know if I was an agent and I wasn't quite getting the offers that I would at least try to get a hold of Zoll and Tom because just like this trade deadline it appears like they were ok with overpaying. I still think the Pohlads are gone from the organization within 2 years. So all in all for an Owner face of the franchise I think I put Tom in the bottom 10 primarily due to lack of knowledge and maybe being too involved but I could see him moving up to middle of the pack. I don't think he has done anything absolutely horrendous that will cost the franchise. Right now Dasan Hill is the only one who could really bite us. I wish we would have done a full tear down and rebuild but I am not going to cry over spilled milk. The path is just a tad narrower for our next window.

1. He has been knocking off the rust from coming back from injury. It is 36 innings that everyone is drawing conclusions from. that is SSS. 2. With being injured he is by default the freshest arm we have out there. 3. I expect some simple pitch sequencing to help some 4. Kremer has had good stuff even this year under the hood, appears to be hit more by bad luck and an extremely high HR rate. 5. Kremer historical has been a pitcher with multiple 2 runs or less outings then have a blowup. I personally think he will have a regression to his mean, which means he will perform much better down the stretch. Now I could be wrong but I think he was a fine buy low candidate. Just not someone worth buying at the deadline. You could have gotten him for cash considerations or a low prospect after this season.