Greggory Masterson

It doesn’t matter what offseason additions you circled in the Sears catalog. When you wake up on Christmas morning, this former top-10 prospect will be under that tree. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images After a baseball executive has been around a while, observant fans can see a move coming from a mile away. With Derek Falvey in 2025, it’s almost too obvious that Amed Rosario will be a Twin. Rosario is a 29-year-old right-handed utility player who spent last season with the Rays, Dodgers, and Reds. A key piece in the trade that brought Francisco Lindor to New York, Rosario enjoyed a couple of quality years in Cleveland as the team’s starting shortstop, before playing his way out of their plans in 2023. Now, coming off an up-and-down year across three teams and projected to make modest money, he’s everything the Twins want and need. Let’s see if you see what I see. First, Rosario is right-handed. In recent years, Twins teams have had benches almost exclusively built out of righties and switch hitters. You may have heard this before, but the club likes to platoon, so stocking the bench with potential platoon partners to their left-handed starters comes naturally. Rosario, specifically, has been a slightly below-average hitter for his career, but he’s always hit well against lefties—about 20% above league average since 2017. I’m going to use the phrase “whether you like it or not” a few times here, so forgive me. Whether you like it or not, Rocco Baldelli is going to platoon. Right now, the Twins’ two starting corner outfielders—Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach—are left-handed, and potential (maybe, who knows?) second baseman or designated hitter Edouard Julien is, too. They’re going to look to pair at least one or two of those guys with a platoon partner, and a team can do a lot worse than Rosario’s 125 OPS+ against lefties. “But Gregg,” I hear you say at your screen, “Rosario is a shortstop. You said that 217 words ago! He can’t platoon with the outfielders.” Oh, Rosario can do more than that. He’s technically played everywhere except catcher and first base, with at least 14 appearances at second, third, shortstop, and right field in 2024. He’s not going to be a center fielder, and he’s looked iffy in the outfield, but he’s plenty athletic, and whether you like it or not, it’s not hard to imagine that the Twins could believe they could make him play passable defense. They did something similar with Willi Castro, though Castro looked better out there before coming to Minnesota. He’s almost a diet Castro in terms of his positional flexibility, though he probably won’t match Castro’s performance at any single position, except maybe second base. If the Twins had a second Willi Castro or a Willi Castro Lite to replace Castro in the event of an offseason trade or an injury that forces Castro into a consistent starting spot, you know he’d be playing everywhere. There have been some complaints that the Twins focus too much on finding utility players like Rosario, but whether you like it or not, it’s kinda their type. He can play just about anywhere you need him to, and the Twins love to find a need. There will be playing time to go around, with questions about the health of Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, as well as the lack of a firm answer at second base. One of the downsides of Castro taking a more pronounced role was losing his skills as a pinch-runner and base stealer. Castro rarely came off the bench in 2024, so there’s certainly a role there for Rosario, who is a career 75% base stealer and has a faster sprint speed than Castro or Austin Martin (who is another contender for such a role). Rosario’s 29 ft/s sprint speed would have been the fastest on the team in 2024 outside of Byron Buxton. Digging a bit deeper, Rosario has a batting profile that echoes several of the Twins' recent offseason moves. Despite a reputation for only valuing “all-or-nothing power hitters” that we can probably at least in part blame Joey Gallo for, many of their recent veteran additions have been quite the opposite. Manuel Margot, Carlos Santana, and Donovan Solano, for example, have each been lauded for their abilities to put the bat on the ball. In many of these cases, it seems that the Twins have tried to take players with bat-to-ball skills and add power to their profiles. By their estimation (seemingly), it’s harder to coach bat-to-ball than consistent damage on contact. Rosario’s key offensive trait is his ability to put wood on the ball and not strike out. It’s not to quite the extent we’ve seen with the players mentioned above, but it’s undoubtedly his deal. He swings at everything and usually makes contact, sporting a batting average of .273 for his career and .280 last season. Whether you like it or not, the Twins appear to think that they can take a guy like that and up his power. Rosario can make really hard contact, but it’s supremely sporadic, and if the Twins think they can unlock a little bit more of that, the puzzle pieces keep falling into place. Rosario will likely come at a low cost—under $3 million this year by most estimates, fitting nicely into the Twins’ inactive offseason. He can play everywhere, platoon, pinch-run off the bench, and maybe even be “fixed” at the plate. Doesn’t this sound like the dream addition for Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli? I’m not sure if I’ve talked myself into Amed Rosario: 2025 Twin or if I’ve just become resigned to the fact that he’s already a Twin. It just makes too much sense. View full article

La Makina went through my mind while we were recording, but I can’t believe I didn’t think of Dick Mountain (we’re a family company anyway)

The Winter Meetings are here! What are the Twins going to do? Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg discuss what might happen for the Twins at the Winter Meeting and if you should care at all. They also speculate on Juan Soto an hour before he signed with the Mets and Gregg takes aim at those taking aim at turkey. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article

I would love to write them up as a singular analysis. However, a list of 50ish trades isn't the most fun to read. Yesterday I covered the challenge trades and sells over the offseason: old nurse if you didn't see this yesterday I wanted to point it out here. Wade was still a rookie but he had made the majors so I included him in the challenge trade section Anyway beyond that, at the Trade Deadline, I covered the times that Falvey has bought in-season: And a year and a half ago I detailed every time the team sold at the deadline (I skipped this this year because the Twins were not going to be sellers):

The Twins have been pretty successful trading prospects for established big leaguers over the offseason under Derek Falvey. If you disagree, I invite you to read the list and then tell me I'm wrong. Image courtesy of © David Berding-Imagn Images (Odorizzi), © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images (Palacios) You know what, I’m tired of writing these intros. This is my seventh full trade review over the last two years. You know the drill. Here’s every time Derek Falvey has traded prospects for a veteran over the offseason in his career leading the Twins. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 19th, 2024. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the full picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2022 Sonny Gray trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Gray was good for 7.7 bWAR and was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up. However, Chase Petty, a former first-round pick, still has time to accrue value for Cincinnati, so we can’t definitively close the book on that trade yet. Also, again, this list only contains offseason trades. If you want to go into the club's trade deadline buying history, you can do that here. Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst. 2/18/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Odorizzi (337.0 IP, 107 ERA+, 4.9 bWAR) from Tampa Bay for Jermaine Palacios (did not reach Tampa Bay), +4.9 bWAR for Minnesota. For quite some time, this trade was the undisputed crown jewel of this era of Twins baseball. Odorizzi sat in the front half of three Minnesota pitching rotations between 2018 and 2020, providing consistent performance, though he was not a star. Palacios never reached the majors with Tampa, but debuted with Minnesota in 2022 after signing a minor league deal. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Sonny Gray (303.2 IP, 142 ERA+, 7.7 bWAR), Francis Peguero (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for Chase Petty* (has not reached Cincinnati), +7.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Looking to shore up a rotation with several holes in it, Minnesota traded future value in Petty for present value in Gray, effectively trading a pitcher now for a pitcher tomorrow. Gray led the staff for two years and finished second in the AL Cy Young in 2023. The Twins also got a compensation pick for losing Gray to free agency, and that became infielder Kyle DeBarge. Peguero was released following the 2023 season. Petty had been drafted in the first round just months before and has impressed in the low minors thus far. As the book is still out on Petty, I’m keeping Odorizzi in the top spot. 3/27/23: Minnesota acquires Michael A. Taylor (388 PA, 94 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR), from Kansas City for Evan Sisk* (has not reached Kansas City), Steven Cruz* (18.1 IP, 132 ERA+, 0.3 bWAR), +1.3 bWAR for Minnesota. Taylor served as the everyday centerfielder in 2023, given injuries to both Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon. The Gold Glove center fielder performed as expected defensively, and showed some pop, though his bat has been mediocre overall. Cruz has pitched sparingly for Kansas City in 2023 and 2024 and Sisk spent the year at Triple-A but was added to the Royals' 40-man roster this month. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Kyle Farmer (611 PA, 91 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Casey Legumina (22.0 IP, 67ERA+, -0.5 bWAR), +1.9 bWAR for Minnesota. Without a starting-caliber shortstop (prior to the Carlos Correa signing), the Twins traded for Farmer. He’s since started games at second, third, and short—and seen time at first base and left field—as the top bench infielder in 2023 and is a platoon bat versus lefties. He struggled in 2024, posting a negative bWAR while earning $6.3 million for a team that faced payroll constraints. Legumina had not debuted at the time of the trade, but he has since thrown 22 mediocre innings and is getting his first taste of MLB. 2/26/24: Minnesota acquires Manuel Margot (343 PA, 90 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), Rayne Doncon* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles for Noah Miller* (has not reached Los Angeles) -0.5 bWAR for Minnesota. Acquired to be Byron Buxton insurance, the formerly terrific center field defender Margot was borderline unplayable defensively and even struggled in left. At the plate, he set the all-time record for most pinch hitting appearances without a single hit in an entire season. But hey, he hit lefties well if he started the game. The final outcome of this trade will be decided after Doncon and Miller’s Twins and Dodgers careers are decided, which might be in the 2030s. For now, I’ll leave it here. 1/10/23: Minnesota acquires A.J. Alexy (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Cristian Jimenez (did not reach Washington), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Alexy was a fringe roster addition as a depth reliever. He was waived shortly after the trade and claimed by the White Sox. Jimenez is out of affiliated ball. 3/16/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Cave (922 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Luis Gil* (151.2 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.7 bWAR), -1.4 bWAR for Minnesota. Cave had yet to debut in MLB, but I include this because he almost immediately became a Twin. Cave spent a couple of years as a good fourth outfielder before spending a couple of years as a poor fourth outfielder. Gil just won Rookie of the Year after rebounding from years of fighting injury and might be a middle-of-the-rotation asset for New York for years to come. It would be awesome to have him around. Overall WAR added: 13.9 On the whole, the Twins have been successful in buying over the offseason, bringing in MLB players in exchange for unproven prospects. Given the nature of buying, it almost always looks better in the near term than it will years later, as the prospects traded away develop. Luis Gil stings, and the Manuel Margot one can only be described now as an oddity. However, beyond those two, the only one that looks like it has even a moderate chance of biting the club is Petty in Cincinnati. I’d assume that the Twins would make that deal again, anyway. View full article

Boy do I have some good news for you tomorrow

The reason I include all the other information is because I recognize WAR only gives part of the story. However, I choose not to include next stops and returns in subsequent trades because the value balance gets untenable to summarize (e.g., how do you balance Hajjar being traded vs Rooker being cut?). If you have a suggestion, I’m all ears. as for the Delmon Young comparison, I think that’s a bit of overkill. What did San Diego get from the deal?

If there’s an an offseason MLB-for-MLB trade I missed, let me know! I separate this series into 4 parts (offseason/deadline, buy/sell) because of how big the list has gotten. Deadline buys is definitely the worst showing

The Twins' front office doesn't have much payroll space to work with. If they want to add, they have to get creative. Let's review every big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer trade Derek Falvey has ever made. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images (Rooker), Stan Szeto-Imagn Images As we look ahead to another “exciting Twins offseason,” it’s become increasingly apparent that the Twins’ brass will need to get creative amid payroll constraints. Just look at the Offseason Blueprints being generated all over Twins Daily as we speak. Derek Falvey and Co. have pulled off their fair share of creative trades, seeking to add to the current big league team even if it takes a big leaguer or two in return. Funnily enough, under Falvey's watchful eye, the Twins have rarely sold over the offseason at all, seemingly preferring to swap their MLB talent for help today rather than prospects for tomorrow. Gio Urshela, by my count, was the only major leaguer to be traded for a prospect since 2017. The team has been trying to win, not stock up assets, leaning into its creativity to make things happen. But, of course, that creativity needs to work. No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It’s pretty straightforward when picking winners and losers when a team sends away MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors in a position of need. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade–MLB for MLB (occasionally prospects get added to the deals, but they have to have an MLB contract going each way)–over the offseason. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 19th, 2024. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract. Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. There’s a lot to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and be rid of Donaldson, who some reports suggest had worn out his welcome in Minnesota. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome and was waived before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa played two decent years in pinstripes. Rortvedt played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota and filled the roles they were brought in for, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson’s, that excess money helped bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023. 1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (379.1 IP, 110 ERA+, 5.8 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez (765 PA, 122 OPS+, 5.0 bWAR), +0.8 bWAR for Minnesota. López was tagged as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it’s questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He was traded to San Diego mid-season in 2024 and just won his third consecutive batting title. 2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (7 PA, -54 OPS+, -0.1 bWAR) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (181 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), -0.1 bWAR for Minnesota. Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and reestablished himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA’s bullpen when healthy. Camargo has gotten a cup of coffee in MLB, and Raley was traded to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA. 3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez* (31.0 IP, 143 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver dealt with injuries in Texas but still hit well enough for mainly DH role. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again. Henriquez,24, saw mild success out of the pen for the Twins in 2024 and could rack up frequent rider miles on the Green Line between St. Paul and Minnesota for the next few years. 4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (115.2 IP, 86 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina* (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +2.0 bWAR for Minnesota. This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever in Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for San Diego but has blossomed into an All-Star in Oakland. Both were traded from San Diego at the 2022 deadline. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and threw 88 innings at the back of the Twins rotation in 2024. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina was released after three years of Rookie ball, and the Twins retained most of Rogers’ salary. 1/19/24: Minnesota acquires Anthony DeSclafani (did not play for Minnesota), Justin Topa* (2.1 IP, 999 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Gabriel Gonzalez* (has not reached Minnesota), Darren Bowen* (has not reached Minnesota) from Seattle for Jorge Polanco (469 PA, 93 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR), -1.2 bWAR for Minnesota. This one’s a doozie. The Twins needed to free up payroll space and traded one of their longest-tenured players in Polanco. Seattle sent back starter Anthony DeSclafani–who missed the entire year with injury–and reliever Justin Topa–who missed all but a week of the season with injury. They also received prospects in the form of outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez (who received one rouge listing on a top-100 prospect list) and pitcher Darren Bowen. For his part, Polanco struggled as well. No real winners in this trade unless Gonzalez turns into something. At least the excess space salary got turned into Carlos Santana. 2/11/24: Minnesota acquires Steven Okert (35.1 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from Miami for Nick Gordon (275 PA, 68 OPS+, -1.7 bWAR), +1.4 bWAR for Minnesota. Nick Gordon didn’t have a place on the 2024 Twins after a 2023 lost to injury, and he was out of options. He was flipped to Miami for Okert in the hopes the lefty could cover some middle innings. Okert’s highs were “fine,” and his lows were “bad.” Gordon was all “bad.” The Twins won the WAR, but both teams lost. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota but would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old but just lost an entire season to injury. 2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade, Jr.* (1552 PA, 115 OPS+, 6.0 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup for several years. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended. In total, Minnesota has lost 2.7 WAR in these trades–under this methodology for counting WAR at least. They certainly haven’t hit a home run on the whole, but there’s only been one true, unmitigated blunder–the Wade trade. Even the Rooker trade returned decent pitching, and Rooker bounced around before becoming the guy he is today. What do you think? How much confidence do you have in the Twins pulling off some creative big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer trades this offseason? View full article

Let’s walk down one path this smelly offseason can take, courtesy of the Twins Daily Payroll Tool. It’s time to make some moves, including at least one funky one. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images This series of articles is a primer on the release of our new "You're The Twins GM!" tool where you play the role of Derek Falvey and build your own Twins offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun! Let’s first set the scene. The Twins have approximately $130 million to spend this season, so the limit for my exercise is $130 million (also, I broke my self-imposed limit, like a bad boy). By my estimate, we’re starting at a payroll of $134.5 million, a number ownership probably wants us to get down from. But we also want to improve the team. The Twins have the following guaranteed contracts: $36 million to Carlos Correa $21 million to Pablo Lopez $15 million to Byron Buxton $10 million to Christian Vazquez $7.5 million to Chris Paddack $3 million to Randy Dobnak $1.5 million to Jorge Alcala (option already exercised) The Twins also have 11 players eligible for arbitration. I’ll be using MLB Trade Rumors’s estimates for their salaries. I will tender contracts to all arbitration-eligible players other than Michael Tonkin (estimated $1.5 million). If some other team throws me a fringy 18-year-old for his rights, I will take it, but otherwise, he’s a non-tender. Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart all remain Twins for an estimated $31.8 million. The minimum salary in MLB for 2025 is $760,000. However, some minimum salary players get small raises and other miscellaneous bonuses, so for this exercise, every other player on the roster will get an estimated $800,000 salary. Move 1: Trade Chris Paddack Given the payroll constraints, finding trading partners will be key this offseason. You may believe otherwise, but I’m a firm believer that the Twins can move Paddack’s entire salary. I don’t believe it would net them a great prospect, but $7.5 million is a reasonable price for a player of his caliber and pedigree on the free market. Who could he get the Twins in return? Honestly, I don’t care; nor do I care where he goes. I’ve been operating under the assumption all offseason that the Sheriff is riding out of town, one way or another. Let’s just say he gets traded to the Red Sox, and the Twins get someone like catcher Nathan Hickey. Sure. Him. $7.50 million removed from the 2024 payroll. Lost: Chris Paddack Move 2: Trade Christian Vázquez and Get Messy with It I told you there’d be funk. Here it is. Vázquez handles a pitching staff well enough to be a starting catcher. However, he’s not worth $10 million to the Twins, and he’s likely not worth that to other teams, either. A key for the Twins will likely be finding the team willing to take on the most salary and sending him there. In recent years, Falvey has pulled off some trades that ranged from unorthodox to boneheaded, and even if they didn’t work, they were kinda fun. San Diego is a great trade partner here for several reasons. First, they need a catcher. The team soured on their former catcher of the future—Luis Campusano, who has four years of arbitration remaining—down the stretch in 2024, starting a tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz down the stretch. Both the veterans are now free agents, and the team needs a starting catcher to hold the spot warm until top prospect Ethan Salas is ready to roll. Also, A.J. Preller trades like a madman. Like, no trade he could ever make would surprise me. So here’s what I’m thinking. Send Vázquez to San Diego for the disgraced youngster Campusano and lefty reliever Wandy Peralta. Peralta, 33, had a bit of a messy year in 2024, losing a step from his stellar 2020 to 2023, but he kept his ERA under 4.00. Peralta, like Vázquez, has an annoying contract that might not justify his play, being owed $13.15 million over the next three years with opt-outs after each season. In 2025, he’s owed $4.25 million. If Peralta gets back on track, he may opt out after the 2025 season, but if he struggles or is truly cooked, the Twins could be on the hook for $4.45 million of dead money for 2025 and 2026. It’s two bad contracts for questionable players. Add in a catcher with more team control, which, the Twins are in desperate need of a catcher they can turn to after Ryan Jeffers reaches free agency after 2026. In my hypothesized world, the Twins would include some very young, high-variance prospects like Adrian Bohorquez (MLB Pipeline’s #29 Twins prospect) and Eduardo Beltre (23)—an archetype Preller loves to collect so that he himself can flip them when they start looking exciting. That’s the starting point, anyway. I could be talked into someone higher up the chain, including other high-variance players like Brandon Winokur (16) or Yasser Mercedes (14), a top-ten prospect like Gabriel Gonzalez (7) or one of the club's high-minors pitchers if I was convinced Campusano could be fixed—I just don't know what the league thinks of him right now. That's one of the reasons that efforts like these are fruitless to predict from the outside. Shoot, San Diego might be looking for international bonus pool money to make a run at Roki Sasaki, and the Twins are probably looking for reasons to not spend money in international free agency; add that if it helps! If I don’t feel Campusano can be fixed, I’d scale back the this deal, but I might be interested in someone like Boston’s Connor Wong, who is also a decent catcher with team control and a top prospect (Kyle Teel) who could soon be taking his job. I'm willing to be a bit reckless in prospect capital if I can find a young, controllable catcher, even if he's just a run-of-the-mill piece, given the Twins' lack of depth at the spot. However, if I can't find someone, I'd just throw some money at a low-end backup veteran catcher to prevent Jeffers and Jair Camargo (whom I have not been sold on yet) being the only catching options. If Peralta doesn't opt out, in this hypothetical scenario, San Diego would pay $1 million per year of Peralta’s contract and $0.5 of Campusano’s estimated $1.7 million in 2025. I would be stunned if this exact trade happened, but I have the feeling that if Vázquez is moved, it won’t be in a total salary dump. Hopefully the club can find a way to get really creative. $5.55 million removed from the payroll. Lost: Christian Vázquez. Added: Wandy Peralta, Luis Campusano Move 3: Trade for Yandy Díaz First Wandy, now Yandy. Let’s reallocate some of that salary that we just moved. The Rays have made it clear that they are open to trading Díaz, who will make $10 million this season and has a $12 million option for 2026, with no buyout money. If whatever team he’s playing for doesn’t want to bring him back, they can let him walk for free. However, if traded, his new team owes him an additional $1 million. What would it take? That’s a good question. There are other first basemen available in free agency this offseason, so it’s not like Díaz is the only option among first basemen. My initial package would include high-minors pitching prospects Andrew Morris (6) and C.J. Culpepper (12), and then either catcher Ricardo Olivar (15) or outfielder Kala’i Rosario (19). It’s time for the Twins to cash in their great pitching draft classes, as St. Paul probably has more pitchers than is reasonable right now. Ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins didn't protect Olivar or Rosario, so I would be interested in trading them if the team has any inkling that another club might try to snatch them away. Does this do it? Maybe not, but it’s a place to start. I could be talked into building a package for Díaz for anything less than Luke Keaschall (3), especially if that led to Tampa kicking in a little salary. Ideally, the Twins could get the Rays to kick in $3 million (less than they paid to get Manuel Margot out of town, by the way). $8 million added to the payroll ($7 million in salary, $1 million in trade assignment). Added: Yandy Díaz Moves 4 & 5 (and 6): Fill Out the Bench These two moves aren’t exciting at all, but I'd add a couple of (potentially) competent role players. First, Amed Rosario. Rosario is a utility player who’s frankly had an up-and-down career. Still, he’s a 29-year-old with positional flexibility, speed, and a good bat against lefties his entire career. I’d love to see him get a $2 million contract for 2025 with a $5 million option for 2026 if the Twins find something in him. A $500,000 buyout sounds good (it goes on this year’s ledger). Second, I’d sign a bat-first righty outfielder. Now, this could be any number of dudes like Robbie Grossman, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, or whatever (if my scouts, of which I employ many, think they're not stew meat at this point in their careers, of course). There’s several of them, and one of them is going to be looking for a home in February. Throw $2 million at him and let him platoon with big, beefy boys Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Let's say it's Pham. Honestly, I would be open to this bench spot being a lefty or an infielder, too. But they need to be able to hit. I guess that's the main thing here. Donovan Solano? I don't know, man, just find me someone who can play a corner spot or DH and is looking for a job in February. However, this fifth move isn't a necessity. Don't spend money you don't need to; just backfill that spot with an internal option. Also, knowing when to cut the cord is critical to both fringe additions. My last move would hopefully be free, but I’d try to find a way to bring in 25-year-old Cristian Pache on a minor league deal. Pache is a former top prospect who plays elite defense in center field but has struggled badly at the plate in his big-league career. He’s out of options, but he could still have a higher ceiling than someone like DaShawn Keirsey, and he’s right-handed. A Byron Buxton organization can’t have enough center field depth. $4.5 million added to the payroll. Added: Amed Rosario, Tommy Pham, Cristian Pache (MiLB) Please see my attached sheet for my estimate of how these moves would shake out payroll-wise. It would take some finagling, some negotiations going right, and some serious prospects, but I kind of like this roster. My final count is $130.85 million. What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Twins roster and hit the button below! Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now View full article

The offseason is fully underway, let's talk about how the Twins have done absolutely nothing. Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg discuss the upcoming potential nontender candidates and key names ahead of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. They also lay out their offseason blueprints, including Lou trading a fan favorite and Cody plagiarizing Gregg and making a threat. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View full article

So if I’m understanding you right, Jeffers has good trade value, and the Twins could get value for his last two years of team control, and they could even get another catcher with more team control in return for him in the process? Were you lying when you said you didn’t read this?

Moving on from the Twins’ backup catcher from the past two years makes some sense. Oh wait, you mean Jeffers? Okay, we can quibble over semantics—yes, Ryan Jeffers did catch one more inning in 2024 than Christian Vazquez. But let me have this hook (Vazquez has caught 150 innings more in total over the last two years in the Twins alternating setup, anyway). What's Up with Ryan Jeffers Jeffers just completed his fifth season in a Twins uniform. He’s had his ups and downs both at and behind the plate, but on the whole, he’s averaged out to being a solid big-league starting catcher. Over the first two months of the 2024 season, he was one of the best hitters on the squad, if not the best, boasting an OPS about 50% above league average. However, he spent most of the final four months in a slump, finishing with an OPS+ of 105—league average. Mind you, that’s still pretty good for a catcher and matches his career OPS+ of 103. Defensively, it seems like Jeffers has lost something. Lauded for his skills as a pitch framer at his debut, the backstop has seen his performance decline year-over-year until he graded out as one of the worst pitch framers in baseball in 2024. He’s never been good at blocking, and 2024 was the only season that he’s been even an average blocker. And, yet, he’s still a solid, young catcher with a few years of team control. The Case for Trading Ryan Jeffers One of the biggest talking points this offseason has been the Twins’ payroll limitations. The club is seemingly already past their own self-imposed spending limit before making a single addition. One of the positions consistently highlighted as a potential target for payroll deductions is catcher. Jeffers and Vazquez are slated to earn a combined $15 million or so in 2025 to split duties (perhaps 50-50) behind the plate. That’s not a terrible sum—unless a team like the Twins is trying to create spending room in any way possible. It’s almost impossible to discuss the case for trading Jeffers without discussing Vazquez (especially given most of the discourse around trading a catcher has been focused on Vazquez), so I apologize if I repeat the points raised by Brandon Glick in his feature. Although Vazquez is in the last year of his deal, and Jeffers has been seen as the catcher of the future, the younger backstop has only two years of team control left. That is to say, it’s not like either catcher (barring an extension) is going to be around for the long haul anymore. Jeffers is regarded by most as the more talented catcher, with his offense making up for what he lacks behind the dish compared to Vazquez. According to MLB Trade Rumors, he’s also due less than half of Vazquez’s salary in arbitration this year, $4.7 million. He’s not a terribly consistent player, but his highs are high, and teams can dream on what he could be in their uniforms to a degree that’s impossible with Vazquez at this stage of his career. And if the Twins want to get value out of dumping one of their starting catchers, not just salary relief, the choice has to be Jeffers. Note: If you’d like to see an in-depth analysis of how the two compare at the plate (it might be closer than you expect), see Matthew Trueblood’s Offseason Handbook article). Comparable Trades of the Past You don’t have to look far to find a case of the Twins trading their popular, bat-first starting catcher with two years of team control left; look no further than 2022. In March of that year, the Twins traded 2020 Silver Slugger catcher Mitch Garver to Texas for shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa and pitcher Ronny Henriquez. The trade moved value from a position of surplus (making room for a young Jeffers) to a position of need, as to that point, the team had not signed Carlos Correa to fill their gaping hole at shortstop. Kiner-Falefa was eventually (and by eventually, I mean the following day) traded to New York in the Josh Donaldson trade, but he turned in a good year for the Yankees. He would have been a solid enough starting shortstop for the Twins had he stayed in town longer than a day. Henriquez has converted to the pen and could be a factor in the 2025 season. Overall, that’s a solid value return, given the squad's needs. It’s actually pretty difficult to find instances of starting catchers being traded over the offseason. Sometimes, a high-quality catcher will be traded at the deadline if he’s on an expiring contract, as happened with Vazquez himself in 2022 when he was traded for Emmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu, who appears to be a mainstay in Boston’s outfield for years to come. There was also the trade between Oakland, Milwaukee, and Atlanta in which All-Star catchers William Contreras and Sean Murphy were swapped, but that’s an exception to the rule. In 2019, after a good year behind the dish, Seattle flipped Omar Narvaez to Milwaukee for a middling pitching prospect and a second-round compensation pick? Mike Zunino—with two years of arbitration remaining—was part of a package that brought back Mallex Smith and Jake Fraley? I don’t know, I’m grasping at straws here for other examples. Starting-caliber catchers tend to get traded early in their big league career, right before they debut, or on an expiring contract. There’s little precedent for a trade like this, but this series aims to prime readers for what could happen and why. Potential Trade Partners One of the factors that makes a Jeffers trade difficult is that “starting catcher” isn’t a general need. Most teams have one, and if you already have one, what’s the point of getting another unless your owner is feeling generous *cough*? However, a handful of playoff contenders don’t have great catching cores at present, which could give the Twins a lane to close a deal. San Diego Padres San Diego was one of the best teams in baseball this year, but its catching room leaves a lot to be desired. Their former catcher of the future, Luis Campusano, has not impressed over his early career on either side of the ball, outside of a productive 49-game season in 2023. Their top prospect, catcher Ethan Salas, still projects to need at least another year before cracking the big league roster. Jeffers could be an option to hold Salas’s spot warm and would slot in well amid one of the most exciting lineups in baseball. The Padres have a shallow farm system, but a return package could include Campusano himself amid other prospects or big-league talent if the Twins see a way to get his young career back on track. Boston Red Sox Boston is coming off a mediocre year, but if they’re looking to compete in 2025, catcher could be a spot they try to upgrade at. Like San Diego’s Salas, Boston also has a high-profile catcher nearing MLB readiness in Kyle Teel. Their current everyday catcher, Connor Wong, is a 28-year-old coming off his best season at the plate, though he was one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball, and Boston could seek an upgrade in the interim. If they were to take a liking to Jeffers, he could serve as a stopgap and split duties with the prospect Teel, protecting the younger player from tough lefties. Boston has a very healthy farm system and can deal from that surplus to improve in 2025 and 2026. Tampa Bay Rays Dealing with Tampa is always fun, and no team has ever regretted trading with Tampa! Hey, put away the Delmon Young Trade Tree. I’m still updating those numbers! Tampa is a bit of a wildcard, coming off their worst season in seven years, but they’re always a factor and have never shied away from unorthodox trades. They currently have a bunch of catchers who swing limp pool noodles, including former Twin Ben Rortvedt, so Jeffers could find work—if they’re willing to open their pocketbooks. Tampa, like Boston, has a great farm system, so it’s a possibility. The Field I mean, I’m sure there is a bevy of competing teams who won’t necessarily turn down the option to add Jeffers to their roster. If a team really likes him and wants to pair him with who they’ve already got, even in a timeshare like that he’s been part of throughout his entire career in Minnesota. So if an owner is feeling generous, a Jeffers trade could be, well, almost anywhere. Conclusions As I’ve stated, there isn’t a ton of precedent for this type of trade. There aren’t many competing teams that you can circle and say, “This team absolutely needs Ryan Jeffers.” But he is an asset; he has a couple of years of team control, and he’s inexpensive. If the team needs to move one of the two catchers for payroll reasons, and they want to get something of value in return, the move is Jeffers, though it may not hurt as much as we might initially believe. View full article

We're officially into the offseason, and the only rumors swirling around the Twins are not what fans want to hear. Sweet Lou, Cody the Malcontent, and Ol Gregg catch up on the nothing that's happened so far this offseason. They discuss some realistic yet sad Twins targets in free agency, Cody calls for the immediate trade of Carlos Correa, and Gregg tries to play an outro song live. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

As long as he can't do both at once (he can't; no work ethic) I'm fine. Not my bear; not my city.

For the first time in almost a decade, a certain handsome German won't be taking up a post in the Twins' outfield next year. Add to his departure the team's perpetual need for high-quality fallback plans in center field, and there's a big opening the team needs to fill this winter. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Welcome to the 2025 Offseason Handbook! This year, we’re offering the format online only through our Caretakers program. The Offseason Handbook is a comprehensive look at what challenges the Twins face in the coming winter to field a competitive team in 2025. To become a Caretaker, visit this page. On top of receiving exclusive access to the Offseason Handbook, Caretakers also receive in-depth analysis from national writers you cannot find anywhere else. You will also receive exclusive access to events and an ad-free browsing option. In celebration of the Offseason Handbook’s release, we’re offering 20% off all Caretaker programs for the next week. Use the code HANDBOOK at checkout to receive 20% off your purchase! Looking ahead to next season, the Twins will be without two of their top four highest-paid players from 2024—a duo who combined for nearly 1,500 of the Twins’ outfield innings (35%). The players in question—Max Kepler and Manuel Margot—need to be replaced in playing time and role. The two occupied right field for 75% of the season and occupied distinct, full-season places on the Twins roster, with the exception of the time Kepler lost to injury. Kepler was one of the longest-tenured Twins, and has been the team’s primary right fielder since 2016. He provided above-average right field defense as a Twin throughout his career, though he has slowed with age and that glovework slid from elite to merely solid. In 2024, he played 105 games, with a mediocre performance at the plate, unable to build upon his torrid second half of 2023. Regardless of that letdown, he has been a fixture, and his playing time has to go somewhere. Margot was seemingly the inverse of Kepler. Whereas Kepler was shielded slightly against left-handed starters, Margot’s primary role was hitting lefties. Kepler’s consistency as a defender was mirrored by Margot’s sudden and mortifying inability to convert even routine balls into outs. Margot ended up playing in 129 games this season, third-most on the team, despite his minor role heading into the season. Did I mention he also led the team in pinch-hitting appearances, en route to a major-league record 35 appearances as a pinch-hitter in a season without a hit? That’s a lot of playing time that needs to be reassigned. Between the two, it’s more than one full-time player’s worth of plate appearances, a little corner outfield pop, a prominent pinch-hitter, and some center field depth. There isn’t a single player who can pick up that slack, but roster incumbents, internal options, and newcomers will be able to collectively fill those shoes—though the pinch-hitting bat doesn’t need to be an outfielder and can, frankly, be anyone with a pulse. First, let’s address the matter of an everyday right fielder. The Twins currently have two traditional, everyday-caliber corner outfielders on the roster: Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Wallner was the team’s Opening Day starter in left field, opposite Kepler. Although he was demoted early in the season, after being recalled in July, Wallner played like the player the Twins hoped he would be with a 149 OPS+, albeit over 261 total plate appearances. Larnach did not make the Opening Day roster, but he ended up registering more plate appearances in 2024 than any other Twins outfielder. He produced well, battling through lower body injuries all year, to the tune of a 116 OPS+. Because of his bumps and bruises, he led the team in appearances as a designated hitter, and shifting him to the outfield more often can open up playing time for other bats there. A betting man would assume that Larnach will be the Twins’ primary left fielder in 2024, leaving right field for Wallner and his elite arm. Alongside Byron Buxton in center, the everyday outfield is pretty clear. However, given the Twins’ propensity for platooning (along with the pragmatic need for more than three outfielders at any one time as depth), there’s still playing time to go around. View full article