Greggory Masterson

Baseball is almost back. Let's talk about it. It's the last day of the Twins' All-Star break, so we're doing a mailbag. Topics include Carlos Santana's role on a playoff roster, how long Carlos Correa will be a Twin, Gregg's longstanding beef with TC Bear, something from an "S. Hayek," and much, much more. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

Now that the All-Star Game is over, it's time to focus on trade season. Lou, Cody, and Gregg break down the upcoming trade deadline on July 30. They discuss their expectations league-wide and for the Twins, as well as needs and targets for the Twins, hypothetical zany scenarios (Should the Twins TRADE Pablo Lopez?), and our favorite recent deadlines. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

Two podcasts in one day! Unbelievable! We're in the throes of the All-Star Break and we've got a lot to get off our chests. Lou, Cody, and Gregg get together to complain about home run celebrations, the draft. the traffic in Milwaukee, and package delivery etiquette. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

How'd the Twins do going into the break? Let's talk about it! Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg are joined by Producer Theo to go over midseason grades for the Twins' hitters and pitchers, expectations for the rest of the year, areas for improvement, and classic baseball names. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

It's the All-Star break, which is technically just a collection of off-days! Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg continue the All-Star Break bonanza and discuss the Twins' two All-Stars: Carlos Correa and Willi Castro. They also delve into forgotten Twins All-Stars of years past, propose a skills completion, and predict the Twins' 2025 All-Stars Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

Trading for a good (but not great) reliever at the trade deadline: it’s the easiest trade to make for contenders' front offices. But the Twins don’t need to do it this year. Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports Every year, roughly a dozen right-handed setup men get flipped from a team out of contention to a playoff hopeful. Teams packing it in for the year—and potentially future years—are often eager to find their reliable reliever a new home and an opportunity to throw in the playoffs, and contending teams are happy to take them in, at the cost of a low-wattage prospect or two. This type of player, given the large supply of them and their debatable effect (a setup man does much less for a team than a star first baseman), doesn’t cost much. As an example, consider the Twins’ recent trade deadline acquisitions. Since 2019, they’ve made six trades for big-league talent, and three of those trades were for right-handed setup men. Most recently, the Twins traded for Michael Fulmer, who gave them 24 solid innings down the stretch in 2022, sending starting pitching prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long to Detroit. Gipson-Long underwent Tommy John surgery after four solid starts for the Tigers in 2023. In 2019, the club acquired two such relievers: Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo pitched well enough down the stretch to get a second year with the Twins, and his return for the Marlins, Lewin Díaz, made the big leagues, but failed to stick as a first baseman. Likewise, the players the Giants received—Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis, Kai-Wei Teng—for Dyson (who, it is sometimes hard to remember, was a very good reliever at the time of the trade) have struggled to gain their footing in the majors. Still, each has had at least a cup of coffee. As one would expect, the prospect capital expended for these three relievers was modest. But there was risk. Gipson-Long, for example, has a reasonable shot at being an MLB starter if he recovers well from elbow surgery. Even if that career hadn’t come with the Twins, his value was surrendered for two months of a player who ranked fourth or fifth in the bullpen pecking order. At times, even a moderate risk might not be worth it. This might be one of those times. Consider the current back end of the Twins bullpen. It’s anchored by Jhoan Durán (one of the most exciting relievers in baseball) and Griffin Jax—considered by many to be even better. Surrounding them are the likes of Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcalá, and Josh Staumont, though each comes with their own questions. Stewart has significant injury question marks and has not pitched in two months, but he would fit into the same tier as Durán and Jax. Alcala is finally hitting his stride, but doesn’t have a long résumé. Staumont is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome and walking too many batters, but he is pumping triple-digit velocity and improving as he recovers. That’s a decent enough collection of potential playoff arms. But there’s more. Come October, the Twins might attempt a ramp-down for some of their starting pitchers, echoing their strategy in 2023—in which Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda each pitched in relief. Varland and Paddack were especially impressive, and could reprise their relief roles this year. That assumes someone takes Paddack’s spot in the rotation, of course. Beyond Paddack and Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa are each quality candidates to ramp down, focus on their best pitches, and pump up their velocity in shorter appearances for the playoffs. It’s easy to see how a playoff bullpen—which only needs, maybe, five good righty pitchers—could fill up and render another Alcalá or Justin Topa-level pitcher redundant (humor me here, but even Topa could find his way into the picture). If the Twins spring for another righty, it needs to be someone in the Durán-Jax-Stewart territory, moving incumbents out of the picture. Anything else probably isn’t worth the prospect risk. From the left-handed side, however: sure. Go right ahead. Lefty relief has been a sore spot for the Twins. Caleb Thielbar has been slumping in his age-37 season, nowhere close to fulfilling his top lefty role of years past. Steven Okert has been Steven Okert, and Kody Funderburk has not taken the step forward many hoped to see this season. There’s a world wherein any of those three is a secondary lefty on a playoff team, but there’s no reason to turn to them over one of the big three (and arguably even Alcalá), even against lefties. A lefty Alcalá-type would be perfectly reasonable, and that’s where the Twins should focus their attention—if they’re shopping in the setup man section at all. Is it unreasonable to seek some regular season depth (for the right price)? No. Another Romo-for-Díaz swap is palatable. But it really doesn’t do much in terms of a playoff bullpen. The sights should be set higher than that. The 2022 Jorge López trade was a mess. López failed to even be useful as a Twin, and the package sent back to Baltimore almost immediately began outperforming him. He himself was flipped to Miami in 2023 for Dylan Floro, a reliever who was designated for assignment before the playoffs began. But this kind of trade would bring value to this year’s team. It has its own heightened level of risk, but if you’re shopping for righties, they should be righties who can help in October, not just August. Make a good trade for a lefty sixth-inning guy. Make a trade for a righty eighth- or ninth-inning guy. Trade for a starter, to facilitate that shift into a relief role for one or more of Varland, Woods Richardson, and Paddack. But don’t make a trade for a righty sixth-inning guy who won't factor into a playoff bullpen. It doesn’t move the needle, and it’s simply prospect risk you don’t need to take. View full article

It's a Twins off-day so that means a new podcast! Greggory and Cody are joined by Tom Froemming as they cover three series wins against Detroit, Houston, and the White Sox. They also hand out midseason awards, discuss some prospects, and play an Immaculate Gregg (see below). When the cat (Sweet Lou) is away, the mice (Gregg, Cody, and Tom) will play. View full article

Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns, which was effectively a wash with this methodology, I wrote up the deadline selloffs last season, so the numbers aren't up to date, but if you want to check them out, they're right here:

Garcia was a difficult one--I have a separate list with his sell included, but it's not relevant to the Twins this year, because they will almost assuredly not be sellers. But I wanted to evaluate the moves in isolation, whether they made a good move for Garcia in the first place

I understand this criticism, and the reason I added a writeup and additional statistics like playing time is because I don't believe WAR is the singular best way to evaluate the trades. However, I'm not fully on board with the "he was blocked" defense. Yes, Steer would have trouble cracking Minnesota's roster, but he still was a valuable trade chip that could have been part of a package for any number of assets. In the end, he was traded for Mahle, so those two should be compared. In another world, Steer could have been traded for someone better or worse than Mahle. Just because he was blocked doesn't mean we can write off his value to other teams is what I'm trying to say.

How have Derek Falvey and Thad Levine fared buying at the deadline? As the 2024 Trade Deadline approaches and the Twins sit in second place, let’s take a look at every time the current front office has tried to give a winning team a July boost. Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports No team wins every trade. Deadline buys are especially complicated, because a team almost always knowingly trades away valuable long-term pieces for short-term rewards. The urgency of an opportunity and the paucity of sellers usually makes the market tough on teams who want to get better down the stretch in a pennant race. Deadline trades are hot on Twins fans’ minds this month, as the team sits in line for a Wild Card spot and continues to chase the red-hot Guardians. I, your humble narrator, have combed through every deadline trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 (when Falvey and Levine were brought on). You, my only friends, can make your own judgments. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a buy near the deadline. These trades occurred in 2017, 2019, and 2022, as the team was in contention in each of those three years. Interestingly, the Twins did not make any deadline buy additions in 2023 despite being in first place (we’re not including the Jorge López-Dylan Floro swap). The analysis below includes stats and context. If they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade, their subsequent performances aren't considered here. This information was gathered as a snapshot on Jun. 29, 2024, and obviously doesn't contain future performance. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade (and sometimes there are no winners, despite the statistics; see the Sam Dyson trade), so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred and other relevant circumstances. Without further ado, here’s my order, from best to worst, based on a subjective mix of process and results. 1. Jul. 27, 2019: Minnesota acquires Sergio Romo (42.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 0.4 bWAR), Chris Vallimont (did not reach Minnesota) from Miami for Lewin Díaz (343 PA, 55 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota. Romo was one of two relievers acquired at the 2019 deadline, and he would be a mainstay in the back of the Twins bullpen for two years, as he was brought back for 2020 before having his option declined. Vallimont was waived in 2022 and is currently in the Dodgers system. Díaz had some promise but failed to hit enough as a first baseman to stick in Miami. 2. Aug. 2, 2022: Minnesota acquires Michael Fulmer (24.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Detroit for Sawyer Gipson-Long* (20 IP, 166 ERA+, 0.4 bWAR), +0.1 bWAR for Minnesota. Fulmer was a quality setup man down the stretch in 2022, though the Twins did not re-sign him in the offseason. He had high highs and low lows for the 2023 Cubs, and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery for a second time at the end of the campaign. Gipson-Long debuted in 2023 with four solid starts for the Tigers, but is on the injured list following his own Tommy John surgery. 3. Jul. 27, 2017: Minnesota acquires Gabriel Moya (42.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Arizona for John Ryan Murphy (299 PA, 62 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota Murphy was most infamous in Minnesota for being the return in the trade that sent Aaron Hicks to New York. Moya was a decent reliever for a couple of years, but was designated for assignment in 2019. 4. Aug. 2, 2022: Minnesota acquires Sandy León (65 PA, 46 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR) from Cleveland for Ian Hamilton (did not reach Cleveland), -0.4 bWAR for Minnesota. A simple veteran-for-veteran swap sent journeyman catcher León to Minnesota as catcher depth and Hamilton to Cleveland as reliever depth. León didn’t hit a lick, but the pitching staff appreciated him, and Hamilton never got called up prior to his release in 2022, though he is a fixture in the current Yankees bullpen. 5. Jul. 24, 2017: Minnesota acquires Jaime Garcia (6.2 IP, 115 ERA+, 0.1 bWAR), Anthony Recker (did not reach Minnesota) from Atlanta for Huascar Ynoa* (122.1 IP, 85 ERA+, 1.1 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota In an effort to “go for it,” the Twins acquired the aging starter to fortify the rotation, sending over the 19-year-old prospect. Garcia made one start. Ynoa had a solid 17-start stretch for Atlanta in 2021, but has not had a significant effect otherwise and is currently dealing with elbow issues. It’s hard to separate this trade from the one that sent Garcia away a week later, but the first trade wasn’t bad in itself. 6. Aug. 2, 2022: Minnesota acquires Jorge López (58.0 IP, 86 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR) from Baltimore for Juan Rojas* (has not reached Baltimore), Cade Povich* (21.1 IP, 91 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Juan Nuñez* (has not reached Baltimore), Yennier Cano* (110.2 IP, 128 ERA+, 2.2 bWAR), -2.6 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins swung a deal for what was arguably the best reliever traded at the 2022 deadline in López, along with his 2.5 years of team control. However, he disappointed in 2022 and 2023 and was swapped to the Marlins for fellow struggling reliever Dylan Floro. Rojas and Nuñez are still in the minors, but Cano emerged as arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2023 for the Orioles. He has cooled off in 2024, but is still a major part of the bullpen, and Povich has started four games for Baltimore. 7. Jul. 31, 2019: Minnesota acquires Sam Dyson (11.1 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from San Francisco for Prelander Berroa (did not reach San Francisco), Jaylin Davis (68 PA, 31 OPS+, -0.7 bWAR), Kai-Wei Teng* (11.0 IP, 40 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +0.7 bWAR for Minnesota. This trade was a mess for all involved, as Dyson pitched a poor 11 innings, had a season-ending injury, and was exposed as a domestic abuser shortly thereafter. Berroa, who debuted in 2023, was traded to Seattle in 2022. Teng has struggled in his first year as a reliever for the Giants in 2024. Davis played poorly in limited action over three years, and has bounced around since the trade. 8. Aug. 2, 2022: Minnesota acquires Tyler Mahle (42 IP, 116 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Spencer Steer* (1,106 PA, 112 OPS+, 4.2 bWAR), Christian Encarnacion-Strand* (364 PA, 90 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), Steven Hajjar (did not reach Cincinnati), -3.5 bWAR for Minnesota. Mahle was one of the top available starting pitchers and was brought in to bring stability to a rotation, though his preexisting injuries in 2022 and eventual Tommy John (not necessarily related to his 2022 injuries) limited him to 42 moderately effective innings as a Twin. Steer was blocked from reaching MLB at the time, and has become a mainstay in Cincinnati’s lineup. Encarnacion-Strand has been up and down since his debut in 2023, and Hajjar was traded as player to be named later in a trade for Will Benson. Total bWAR change through deadline buys: -5.9. (Disclaimer: It's easier to gain WAR over multiple years in sells than buys, given how much longer the prospects are in the organization). In review, the two top trades were for solid right-handed relievers. There were three trades in the middle that were effectively nothingburgers. The other three were failures, due to a mix of health, underperformance, and significant character issues. There is some reason to be nervous about losing on these deadline buys, but that's also part of the risk when a team trades future pieces for present talent. One big hit at the deadline could even be enough to even out these missteps, given that there are only three true flops. Do you agree with this order? How do you feel about the team’s performance buying at the deadline? Do you hope that the team buys again this year? View full article

The Twins have appeared hesitant to trade for players on expiring contracts under the management of Derek Falvey. However, they may be in a perfect position to break that apparent rule this July. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports One of the more consistent patterns during the Derek Falvey regime has been a reluctance to spend prospect capital on short-term solutions. The idea is solid—it can be risky to trade away over a half-decade of a prospect’s career for just a few months of a veteran’s services. It becomes even more risky if two, three, or even four prospects are leaving the organization. As such, many of the players the Twins have acquired with a year or less of team control remaining have been lower-end filler like Sandy León, Dylan Floro, or Jaime Garcia. Michael Fulmer and Sergio Romo were setup men acquired at the deadline with only a few months left on their contracts. Gary Sánchez, Anthony DeSclafani, and Michael A. Taylor were acquired to fill temporary holes at catcher/DH, starting pitcher, and center field, respectively, with a full season of control ahead. That’s it. Really. Those are all the expiring contracts the Twins have brought on since 2016. Every other trade that they’ve made has been for someone with multiple years of control, like Kenta Maeda, Pablo López, or Jake Odorizzi. Even players like Sam Dyson and Gio Urshela, who only played one year as a Twin, had multiple years of theoretical team control when they were acquired. Manuel Margot, for example, has an option for 2025, albeit one almost sure to be declined. The Twins’ emphasis on sustained success—not selling out for a single year, even at a juncture when another team might—has been consistent, but 2024 presents a situation that might make acquiring a short-term piece worthwhile. Not only is the team working with a high floor, but they also have prospect capital and are facing payroll constraints next year. First, the Twins do not have a glaring need. This is not to say they don’t need another playoff arm or something along those lines; it’s that there are pieces in place already that are at least competent. A player in the 2019 Sergio Romo or 2023 Michael A. Taylor range doesn’t really move the needle. A player who moves quality bats down in the lineup or quality arms down in the rotation or bullpen would be the standard to meet to compel a trade. Those types of players, for multiple years, are expensive. That might not be a gambit that the Twins are interested in, especially with the number of quality options already on or near the big-league team. There might be space in the outfield in future years, but Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Willi Castro, and Alex Kirilloff are options there. After Carlos Santana departs, Edouard Julien, José Miranda and/or Kirilloff could be options. The starting rotation is already filled with names for next year, and additional options like Louie Varland, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews provide it with depth. Some of those names aren’t world-beaters, but there’s not an abject feeling of dread or an urgent need around those positions in the near future. Given that, the need for long-term talent is diminished, and the bar for an acquisition is high: a recipe for a high-end expiring contract. That point works in another direction—it lowers the need to hold onto prospects. If there were no other options to replace Max Kepler in 2025, someone like Wallner would be less expendable. Someone a little further down the system and a few years younger would also be less expendable. But right now, the Twins have seven players who have landed on some top-100 prospect list—Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Rodriguez, Festa, Matthews, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Luke Keaschall—and there are exciting lower-tier prospects providing an exciting pool of potential trade chips, because they aren't absolutely necessary for the team's future. Combining those points, the Twins have a high bar to clear, less need to bring in a core building block, and prospect capital to make it happen. Those are theoretical and organizational reasons that can make them more likely to splurge on a team-altering expiring contract. However, there’s a pragmatic reason above all of this: payroll. Back in the offseason, Peter Labuza wrote a great story outlining the Twins’ impending payroll increase in 2025. Key players will see bumps in their contracts and reach or continue arbitration while a few notable veteran contracts expire. The projected payroll is already greater for 2025 than now, and there are no indications that spending will rise to 2023 levels. When bringing on new contracts in trade, that might be an issue. Although contracts are prorated, and the team would only need to take on the player’s remaining salary for 2024, they would still be on the hook for the player’s future salary in 2025 and beyond. A team may even be talked into retaining some of that salary for 2024, but good luck next year. Take someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a common trade target among fans. Guerrero is making approximately $20 million this season. If he were traded on Jul. 31, his new team would be responsible for about $7 million. The Blue Jays could cover some of the money, for the right prospect, leaving the Twins owing $3 million, which might be palatable for ownership. However, in arbitration ahead of 2025, Guerrero might receive $24 million, or even more. The Twins would either have to pay him that, trade him again, or non-tender him in the offseason, making him a free agent (and Toronto wouldn’t give Falvey a discount for not employing him in 2025). There’s no winning there, given ownership’s payroll constraints. So, an uncharacteristic rental makes all the sense in the world this season, and the Twins should try to take advantage of a mercenary who can raise the floor and ceiling of this 2024 team without worrying about the future. It increases the risk of a trade backfiring, but it might be the best move. View full article

Royce Lewis, why'd you open your big mouth and do this to yourself? Sweet Lou, Cody, and Gregg are joined by Twins Daily technical lead Brock Beauchamp to recap the Twins' series wins over Arizona and Seattle. The fellas speculate on who will represent the Twins at the All-Star game, the causes for concern on the roster, and whether Bert Blyleven uses YouTube. Gregg also complains about Luis Castillo's at-bat in Sunday's game. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article

It's an off day for the Twins and you know what that means! Lou, Cody, and Gregg are joined by Peter Labuza to discuss the Twins' 3-3 week against the Rays and A's, as well as Brooks Lee's MLB timeline, the Twins' final series in Oakland, and Gregg gripes about a classic baseball film. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 View full article